Skip to comments.Japanís Economy Has Entered a Terminal Phase
Posted on 02/23/2013 6:41:19 PM PST by kanooga
After more than twenty years of economic troubles, Japan now appears to be entering a terminal phase. They are running out of options as they approach a total economic melt-down.
Since their recession began with the 1990 collapse of the Nikkei stock market, the Japanese government has tried to stimulate their economy with more government spending. Unfortunately, all they have to show for it is massive sovereign debt. The promised economic recovery never happened. They have become Exhibit A in the case against socialism, proving what free market economists have said all along, government spending cannot drive economic growth. That comes from the private sector.
The results in Japan should not come as a surprise. The same results have occurred wherever governments have tried to spend their way out of recession. The United States has made the same mistake repeatedly, including President Franklin Roosevelts New Deal in the 1930′s, President Johnsons Great Society in the 1960′s, President Carters recession in the 1970′s, and President Obamas failed stimulus program in 2009, which spent nearly a trillion dollars to get the slowest economic recovery in American history. The evidence is clear, government spending cannot drive economic growth. Progressive politicians, otherwise known as socialists and communists, dont like to hear that, but that does not change the facts.
(Excerpt) Read more at z3news.com ...
Always has been.
>>War is the answer.
Always has been.<<
Whom would they fight?
Japan is not in a class of Vietnam in terms of military capabilities, let alone other players in a region.
If government spending was the road to prosperity, Greece & Zimbabwe would be the most prosperous nations.
The government spending stimulates only consumption. That only stimulates the manufacturers of goods. If government has to borrow money to print checks for handouts, then it is much worse. Because there is no job growth and tax payers are stuck with the debt.
Federal Reserve is pumping money from the top via banks. That is the wrong end. It is like giving enema from the mouth instead of the anus. It creates a bloated patient who remains blocked.
So goes Japan, so goes the United States.
Give them a a 3- 5 year window and they would have the best Navy, one to rival even our own.
China’s a major candidate.
Ahh, I remember with CRYSTAL CLARITY in the 80s when EVERYBODY was terrified of Japan, because they had a PLAN!!!!! And they had MITI, and a gov/private sector partnership, and it wasn’t sloppy, crazy, wide-open capitalism, and they would RULE THE UNIVERSE by 1990.
Now, everybody says the EXACT SAME THING about the Chinese.
Since when have results mattered? Damn the torpedoes. Keep spending!
But, I remember BJ Clinton extolling the, “public/private partnership” that made Japan so successful...
War economy = government controlled economy = prosperity.
War economy = everybody makes tanks = nobody makes Cadillacs = prosperity.
War economy = everybody works for the G = everybody has a job = the Soviet economy in the 1950s = prosperity.
See post 9....
Preach it brutha! Anyone remember Lester Thurow, MIT moron? He was wetting his pants over their industrial policy and government-funded analog HDTV. How did that work out? I actually saw him speak one time, surrounded later by his student groupies. He even had a leather jacket. All he was missing was the beret.
Now, everybody says the EXACT SAME THING about the Chinese.
I don't think it's quite the same. Yeah, the NYT lunkheads are drooling over China's industrial policy, which will fail like every other industrial policy. But I don't see the Chinese making the mistake of printing money to stimulate the economy.
and they are saying the same thing about emperor Obama.
I DO remember Lester... Missed the leather jacket thing, though.
Americans are ALWAYS terrified of some foreign gov’t controlled economy. In the 50s it was the Soviets. SAME THING! They didn’t have wild-ass, free-wheelin’ capitalism. No! They would win the Cold War and dominate the Earth, because they forced their best and brightest into making missiles or something. Our kids wanted to build carburetors and dums crap like that, so naturally we were doomed.
>>>Give them a a 3- 5 year window and they would have the best Navy, one to rival even our own.<<<
You might be either too optimistic on Japanese or too pessimistic (or know too much) on US naval development.
Japan is not in a position to remilitarize. There are too many old people, full of guilt (maybe it’s a wrong term considering japanese but it is something like that) for their past, who got used to a fact of constant foreign occupation and who see US military as their own military.
I know you can argue with me based on your knowledge of japanese nationalism, some of them hate all the above but they still recognize it as a fact of life.
There are not enough young people to waste in war, there are no other visual goals as well (oil, markets?? not).
The Chinese are smarter than Japanese. They have a long history of being on top of the world economy. Japan has no such history. Japan had the emperor knows it all mind set. China's economic history:
no, no, they just did it wrong. they didn’t throw enough money into it. we’re smarter, just let us try it here, we can make it work.... /every socialist, everywhere else
Hard to maintain a welfare state with no-one making babies. Mark Steyn called it.
Yep, like Steyn is always saying, it’s all demographics.
Population growth rate -0.077% (2011 est.)
China is printing more than we are, and has a real estate bubble bigger than ours was in 2007.
and unlike the western economies, their is completely driven by corruption.
and unlike the western economies, their is completely driven by corruption.
>>>Yep, like Steyn is always saying, its all demographics.
Population growth rate -0.077% (2011 est.)<<<
Sure. As for economic stagnation there are actually numerous factors, some of them are contributing to demograthics in two ways.
Japan has a good reason to die-off.
Japan’s effective growth since WWII was all based on industrial production exports so it’s fate was sealed as early as earlier 70s as US got laid with Red China for some strategic Cold War reasons. Right now they are barely competing on a base of higher value added products but it won’t last long for the Chinese to catch up.
For that reason Japan has to retire Godzilla from it’s folklore position to replace it with Henry Kissinger. As for China they have to build a huge statues of that same person along with Lenin and Mao. They can carry his portraits on May Day parades as well.
It is pretty ironic US was affected about as much in that direction. It is not that broken simply because US economy is more diverse.
What they should do is close down lots of roads, airports and other public sites that are no longer needed for a shrinking population and sell that land to private owners. You’d drive the housing prices and land owner prices down and the government would make money for itself by privatizing land ownership. And then while they’re at it put that money into patching up the now “fewer” numbers of public works that need fixing and start building or completing renewable energy power sources so as to drive down prices on everything including manufacturing exports.
There must be a reason other than technology why Japan can’t make it on just solar or wind power.
I think you could “jazz” up your line by saying “Can’t we please give WAR a chance ?”
“Now, everybody says the EXACT SAME THING about the Chinese.”
the chinese have more people, more oil than japan, and more wide open capitalism.
China has a day-to-day supply of coal, and has been artificially keeping its work force busy with useless make-work projects like building ghost cities.
Add to that their corruption and their killing off of a generation of women. Not really bright indicators of internal strength.
My tagline is my response
I remember that too.
1. It destroys stuff, which then needs to be rebuilt creating jobs.
2. It kills lots of people which lowers the unemployment rate since fewer people alive means more jobs for those still left alive.
YEP...I remember that too...was working at INTEL and they were pushing KANBAN (sp?)....etc...what a load THAT turned out to be.
The case against Keynesian economic policy is clear. No civilization in man’s entire history has ever spent itself to prosperity. Anytime it is tried it is an act of . . . Kamikazi. Japan should know how that works very well.
I remember reading how they're trying to force 10% annual growth. I guess this is how they're doing it, on paper.
Simply amazing how far and fast the economy of Japan has fallen. In the late 80’s, Japan was an economic marvel and the envy of world. Now, they are on the verge of collapse.
This is not a comforting fact considering that we have many of the same problems with our own economy. I think our good luck in being blessed with many natural resources and our capacity for change, our ability to adapt, has kept us, so far, from falling apart ourselves. It is truly scary that Japan with its highly educated and law-abiding workforce, one that in many ways is equal to or superior to our own, still can’t keep their country from losing its share of international markets. If it can happen to them, it can surely happen to us.
I really hope that if Japan is going to fail, it does so soon. This isn’t because I dislike Japan or Japanese, but because the democrats and Keynesians are holding them up as a role model, that we can still deficit spend because Japan has even greater debt than we do and is still limping along. If Japan fails spectacularly soon, it would help us all get on the same page of reducing spending.
So the socialists are right, since that’s government spending....
Keep on dreaming. Just in last 25 years, China has created 150 NEW Billionaires and ONE MILLION NEW millionaires. Naked capitalism is obviously thriving in China. Sure the system is autocratic. But that keeps crime rates near zero. And you will never hear the muzzies creating trouble in China. When there was trouble recently, the government rounded up several hundred terrorists and shipped them to Allah’s heaven. That is the assumption since no one has seen them since.
You must not be following financial news. Last year China raised interest rates to cool off the the real-estate bubble, which is caused by speculators, and is mostly in high demand crowded areas such as Beijing. Go 500 miles out and there you will find thousands of newly built unsold homes.
And one more thing...China has no foreign debt! On the contrary China owns Trillions of surplus foreign currency. This is in stark contrast with Japan which has national debt exceeding 200% of their GDP.
“Keep on dreaming. Just in last 25 years, China has created 150 NEW Billionaires and ONE MILLION NEW millionaires. Naked capitalism is obviously thriving in China. Sure the system is autocratic. But that keeps crime rates near zero.”
Go to bed, Jim Rogers.
Also China is hardly a paradise of free market capitalism; the state still controls considerable portions of the economy and in fact centralization has increased under Hu Jintao.
“Japan has a good reason to die-off.
Japans effective growth since WWII was all based on industrial production exports so its fate was sealed as early as earlier 70s as US got laid with Red China for some strategic Cold War reasons.”
This is, interestingly enough, very similar to the US in the 50s-60s. We had 25 glorious years of prosperity by virtue of having destroyed all our manufacturing competition in the war. And once Europe and Japan rebuilt, it was game over for America as the manufacturing leader of the world.
It is also true that Japan has little apparent desire for US troops to ever depart and for them to be militarily self-sufficient because (as someone else said) they don’t have enough young people to man an army anymore. This is not like in WWII times when Japan was a youthful country where only 3% of the population was over 65 and they had tons of 18 yo bodies to throw around.
That is an interesting graphic. Too bad that here in the West in general, and the U.S. in particular, no one looks forward or back more than about 5 years. On a good day.
1. Drop Welfare
2. put people to work at Slave Wages.
3. Restart Draft.
4. Rally people and Rebuild Navy.
5. Invade weakest Neighbor—like some Island Nations in Pacific. How about North Korea?
6. Hold lots of Parades, build shrines, make people proud and able warriors. Control Press, take apart internet, put in a secret police. Works every time!
Too late for all of this.
As for slave wage you won’t ever institute it slavish enough to compete with Red China on cheap labor.
And whom are you about to draft? Japanese polls shows their teenagers aren’t manly enough to have sex with girls. Their ideas on firearms and warfare are coming from Call of Duty.
1. Destroy stuff — there are 10 houses, they are destroyed. 1 year later there are 10 houses, but you’ve lost x years of man labor and materials to get back to where you started from. PURE WASTE. If you want to hire people, just have the G hire the unemployed to move a sand pile from here to there and back again.
Dead people — If people die, then there are fewer people to make things which = less productivity. True, there are fewer people demanding things, but that is simpy a wash at best. Among the dead are certainly people who were far more productive than infants. Of course loss of one’s life is the loss of an economic good, even more hurtful than the loss of one’s Cadillac.
My thought as I read the piece was “Who will the Japs attack this time?”
It is fairly early in the morning and I can’t make the computation.
North Korea is the main contender off the cuff.
They don't have to. I would wager that the Chinese have quietly been taking physical possession of whatever gold the U.S. claims it has in Fort Knox.
The surviving American men returning from WW2 thus found abundant jobs at amazing salaries when they returned from the war, which led directly to the glory days of the 50’s (and the unsustainable salaries and benefits unions demanded during that time). Over the next 15 to 20 years, as the rest of the developed world rebuilt their factories (bigger and better than before) and US factories aged it all came crumbling down in the US.
This all has helped obscure the damage socialism has done to the country. MANY people (possibly a majority) truely believe that the New Deal saved the US from the great depression when just the opposite is true. The New Deal caused the great depression (which was only “great” in the US) Most Americans have a very ... Americentic view of the world and don't realize that the great depression wasn't a world wide phenomenon, but simply a small downturn in most of the world, which they recovered from quickly just like any other recession.
As always, government (and it's embrace of socialism) was the problem, and not the solution.