Posted on 02/27/2013 12:08:11 PM PST by SeekAndFind
On Tuesday morning, the Democrats launched an independent group called Battleground Texas, which is capable of making the Lone Star state a battleground by 2016 and a lean-Democrat state by 2024, effectively breaking the back of the national GOP and blocking a Republican path to the White House.
Yes — that Texas: The state that has not elected a single statewide Democratic official in 10 years, with Republicans going 100-0; the state that has had an entirely Republican government since 2002, with current super majorities in the legislature; and the state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
History aside, if neither party lifts a finger to change current trends, the demographic changes taking place in Texas will — by themselves — seal it as blue by around 2040. The Democrats, however, plan to lift more than a finger; and if they play their cards right, they could speed the process up by 25 years, putting Texas in play much sooner.
Sound far-fetched? It isn’t. And although that timeline is going to be difficult for the Democrats, they have the right path — and the right people — to pull this coup off in three steps. But first, some background.
Demographics
Today, Hispanics make up 41 percent of Texas’ citizenry, while whites made up 43 percent. The white electorate’s plurality, however, will not last — because the Hispanic population’s birth rates are higher, the Hispanic population is still growing through immigration, and the Hispanic population is younger (with a large population not yet at voting age). If legal Hispanic immigration stays consistent with 2000-2010 levels, Texas could be a plurality Hispanic state by 2017, and a majority Hispanic state by 2036.
Both parties know that Hispanics are not a monolithic group, and they are not all Democrats. Though nationally they lean toward the Democrats (67 percent in 2008, 71 percent in 2012), in Texas, Democrats hold less sway (63 in 2008, and unknown in 2012 because there weren’t any exit polls).
Indeed, the Texas GOP is a different animal from the national party, and it wins Hispanic support in larger numbers than the national party, making it more difficult for Texas Democrats to make inroads. Gov. Rick Perry’s 2010 re-election, for example, won 39 percent of Hispanics, and Real Clear Politics reports that in 2012, “the Texas GOP increased the number of Hispanic elected officials from 58 to 78.” (RELATED: Gallup report: GOP unlikely to gain much traction with Latinos)
These statistics, plus Texas GOP policies that include a softer stance on immigration than neighboring Republicans, have led some on the right to dismiss the prospect of a blue Texas. “The Texas Republican Party is different and far stronger than its counterparts in other states,” Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist wrote in a Jan. 31 column entitled “Dems shouldn’t mess with Texas.”
But the Dems are very capable of messing with Texas through three steps. And that’s just what they’re fixing to do, starting with voter registration.
THE THREE STEPS:
1) Voter registration
While there are about 9.5 million Hispanics in Texas, compared with 11.5 million whites, Hispanics only accounted for about 20 percent of the Texans who voted in 2008 and 2010. One of the two reasons? Voter registration.
In 2008, 54 percent of Texan Hispanics were registered, while white and black registration held even at 74 percent. And in 2010, Hispanics were registered at just 53 percent, while whites and blacks were at 67 and 62 percent, respectively. Over all, Texas is home to 1.5 million unregistered Hispanic-Americans, 500,000 unregistered African-Americans and 200,000 unregistered Asian-Americans — all populations the Democrats intend to target.
2) Voter participation
But the fight to win a voter doesn’t end with voter registration — the next step is voter participation. A party can register all the people it wants, but if they don’t show up on Election Day, it doesn’t make a difference.
Hispanics lag behind in this aspect, too: In 2008, 70 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out, while whites and blacks were tied at 88 percent. In 2010, only 43 percent of Hispanics turned out, compared with 65 percent of registered whites and 62 percent of registered blacks.
The Hispanics are underperforming as far as voter participation is concerned. Democrats know that this leaves a lot of room for improvement — a lot of room for outreach.
3) Voting blue
Now comes the harder part, at least as far as a 2016 timeline is concerned, because shifting public opinion is harder than registering voters or increasing turnouts. But the bottom line is this: If the Democrats accomplish their first two goals, and get Texan Hispanics in line with national Hispanic party affiliation, they could put Texas in play in 2016. And while swinging public opinion is difficult, it certainly isn’t impossible — particularly giving the Democrats’ demonstrated ability to micro-target potential voters with data-driven messaging. (BEDFORD: How Romney’s consultants lost the election as soon as it began)
In 2008, 35 percent of Texan Hispanics voted for the GOP. No exit polls were taken in Texas in 2012, but the national Hispanic GOP vote was only 27 percent — four points lower than the national Hispanic GOP vote in 2008. So, going off of limited data, and giving the GOP the benefit of the doubt, the Democrats would need to swing Texan Hispanic voters their way by between four and eight points.
It won't take 3 steps, only one illegal action -
AMNESTY!
And the total ineffective GOP won’t be able to stop it. Sad, but the Republican empire is totally screwed.
In a matter of less than 15 years, those young people will be voting...and well over half of them will be voting democrat...probably more like 60% of them.
Texas will be a blue state and that's when I leave. I refuse to live in a state run by democrats. OK here I come.
Texans are allowing bilingual practices everywhere. THey’re stupid on this.
What is the plan?
All Mexican-Americans will be bilingual?
Absolutely not. That’s just illogical, not to mention that the social pressure is that all Americans owe it to the Mexicans and Mexican Americans to convert their culture.
Latinos voted Dem for pres 74%.
They’ll turn Texas blue so fast it’s going to curl people’s hair.
There’ll be no where to go after that.
Heard an ad this morning for a roofing co whil listening to Rush: “Mexicans get 50% off”.
FF One year. Gonna be a different place. Perry is not on top of this, unless he wants it, which I wouldn’t put past these dopey dopey GOPers.
Texas is in the midst of being destroyed by within, and 0bama is doing all he can to flood the state with illegals. 0bama should ONCE AGAIN be impeached for violating federal law with his recent release of illegals from detention centers. This is a coordinated plan as has been done to other states. Hard to believe that the State of California was at one time in love with Ronald Reagan.
They are ineffective because they choose to be. They are in support of this invasion and occupation like their brothers in the Democrat party.
Yup. AMNESTY (or any such scheme that leads to citizenship for masses of illegal aliens) will ensure that Republicans never win another election. USSA here we come.
In their dreams. The Entitlement state is about to collapse, we all know SSI, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare are unsustainable and even taking our 401k’s won’t fix it. Unless Obama declares himself king and takes all our assets, he is still playing with the destruction of the currency. We may not make it until 2016. It is my hope that in their arrogance, they are dooming themselves to failure. Even Woodard is beginning to see the hubris.
Where is Perry? Where is the Texas GOP? Where are conservative Texans?
From your lips to God’s ear.
Complacency is not just a river in Africa. (something like that)
The three steps:
1.) Register illegals and have them vote
2.) Amnesty
3.) MASSIVE voter fraud in Houston
The GOPe don’t care as long as the plans of the ruling class are furthered. Besides the quisling Republicans can always join the Democrats. They are for all intents and purposes the same anyway.
Two things will decide the future of Texas, controlling Texas education to teach Texas patriotism to Hispanics, and converting a sizable number of Hispanics to Protestant Christianity.
Texas is strong in both those areas in a way that California never was, since it never was fundamentally conservative, nor Evangelical.
What friggen good is winning Texas when you broke the whole friggen country!
Ya good luck with that. The king of nothing.
How do they think CA went from a battleground state to solid Blue?
Have you been to South and West Texas lately? It is like visiting Mexico.
They’re feeding, sheltering, educating and medicating hundreds of thousands of Mexicans with the intention of having them all voting Democrat by 2016. That along with the influx of CA economic refugees, Blacks and the university vote just may put Texas in play....the end of our prosperity.
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