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The “Zero Hour” Scenario (Default On Precious Metals)
The Daily Reckoning ^ | 3-10-2013 | Addison Wiggin

Posted on 03/10/2013 9:40:58 AM PDT by blam

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1 posted on 03/10/2013 9:40:58 AM PDT by blam
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To: Jet Jaguar; jiggyboy
Dow And Silver In Gold Terms
2 posted on 03/10/2013 9:45:25 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

No economist am I but previously in investing these types of articles are published just as a major broker is getting a huge sell order and needs to place it.


3 posted on 03/10/2013 9:52:42 AM PDT by LurkedLongEnough
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To: LurkedLongEnough
The Very Best Advice To Ignore

"Every year, major banks and brokerage houses provide their four-year forecasts for the gold price. The following chart documents the average price projection of 25 top analysts over the past seven years, many of whom specialize in the resource industry. I might suggest pushing away from your desk so that when your jaw drops it doesn’t hit the keyboard.


4 posted on 03/10/2013 9:57:58 AM PDT by blam
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To: blam

If I were a buyer of Gold, I’d insist on NOTHING but physical possession of it. Buying the so called ‘paper’ would be unthinkable to me. If security of my physical possession is a concern, that’s what safes are for. One can always rent a ‘deposit box’ at the bank as well, but I’d prefer a nice big(at least 1,000lbs) fire-rated safe, bolted to my basement floor to store things in.


5 posted on 03/10/2013 10:01:29 AM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: blam

That’s why you want to own mining stocks. You can get dividends now, and will be leveraged when TSHTF.

Don’t go crazy on them, no more than 3% of your portfolio in any one stock or 10 to 15 % in the sector depending on your risk tolerance. The sector ETF is GDX, which pays about a 1.24% dividend, and it’s currently a falling knife, so this not for the faint of heart. Use stop losses or options so you don’t get sliced up too badly.

Investing is about patience and judgment, because the market will always be one step ahead of you.


6 posted on 03/10/2013 10:04:32 AM PDT by Go_Raiders (The wrong smoke detector might just kill you - http://www.theworldfiresafetyfoundation.org)
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To: blam
That's the reason all currency, money relegated to having value but has none is known as fiat money, to mean it has no intrinsic value, its value simply by government fiat, government proclamation, the government simply saying so.

(It has nothing to do with the Italian automobile manufacturer, FIAT, which many say due to its poor workmanship is an acronym for, Fix It Again, Tony .)

7 posted on 03/10/2013 10:07:12 AM PDT by lbryce (BHO:"Now, I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds by way Oppenheiner at Trinity NM)
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To: blam

and when the government then demands that you turn in all your gold to them and makes it illegal to own gold (this was done before)... what are you going to do then?

face it... when the end comes... there is no way to escape and no right answer.


8 posted on 03/10/2013 10:08:23 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied .. the economy died.)
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To: LurkedLongEnough
That might be true for any given article of this type, but it does not negate the absolute truth of the article: that there will be an official default.

I would say that the Germans trying to get their gold back from New York have provoked a de facto default. The most obvious explanation as to why would it take seven (?) years to move many things each the size of a brick from point A to point B is that they just don't have them right now. Any security concerns offered as reasons not to move it in a timely matter, despite the matter of that diamond heist in Brussels in February, are simply red herrings.

And there is precedent. When nickel officially defaulted in 2006, the criminals at COMEX (aka CRIMEX) simply said, eh, ok, sellers pay buyers one percent per day until they can deliver. You can bet that gold would be going up more than one percent per day in that scenario, and CRIMEX wins again.

9 posted on 03/10/2013 10:13:38 AM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

“...and when the government then demands that you turn in all your gold to them and makes it illegal to own gold (this was done before)...what are you going to do then?”

Shoot first, ask questions later. :)

P.S. A TEXAN is asking this and a YANKEE has to answer? LOL! ;)


10 posted on 03/10/2013 10:15:22 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: KoRn

I will relate this story again for the benefit of my FRiends...

A friend of mine took possession of physical PMs...a lot of PMs.

One fine morning her husband walked into the garage and was met by a man in a ski mask with a pistol.

If her husband had not been an incredibly brave and strong 70 year old man, they would both have been dead after the obligatory torture session.

As it turned out, both hubbie and she were badly bloodied but alive as the robber escaped dropping his mask and zip ties as he fled.

The robber looked like an absolutely normal white guy like you would see shopping at Wallymart. No tats, piercings, etc.

The robber was never caught.

My friend had not told anyone that she had PMs. Who knew? The coin shop? The UPS driver?

Remember OPSEC at all times. Do not keep PMs in your gunsafe, home, or other obvious place.


11 posted on 03/10/2013 10:20:49 AM PDT by darth
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To: KoRn

Bank safes aren’t that reliable. If the gov’t is in desperate need of gold, they can make the banks deny access or inspection to safe deposit boxes belonging to “the subjects”.


12 posted on 03/10/2013 10:40:10 AM PDT by Rusty0604
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To: jiggyboy

Yes, the Germany deal is what I was thinking about. Looked like a default to me.


13 posted on 03/10/2013 10:42:27 AM PDT by Rusty0604
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To: darth
Remember OPSEC at all times. Do not keep PMs in your gunsafe, home, or other obvious place.

And you can't trust bank safety deposit boxes, either, as any run on the bank will also block access to your box.

So what is the answer? Get creative with your home remodeling.

14 posted on 03/10/2013 10:45:16 AM PDT by Yo-Yo
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To: Yo-Yo

Agreed.


15 posted on 03/10/2013 10:55:27 AM PDT by darth
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To: Yo-Yo

and use a P.O. box. You should not have valuable items mailed to your home address.


16 posted on 03/10/2013 11:08:03 AM PDT by cgbg (HLM--"Democracy is the theory that people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.")
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To: Go_Raiders
The sector ETF is GDX, which pays about a 1.24% dividend, and it’s currently a falling knife, so this not for the faint of heart. Use stop losses or options so you don’t get sliced up too badly.

Not investment advice, but the stop-loss order often goes under everyone's radar screen. You can't use them with Mutual Funds, they are not available with that instrument.

With ETF's trading "Intra-Day" if the SDHTF and the markets have a huge correction in one day ( a la Sept 08') and you hit you exit number, you are in Schaffer City....

17 posted on 03/10/2013 11:10:56 AM PDT by taildragger (( Tighten the 5 point harness and brace for Impact Freepers, ya know it's coming..... ))
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To: darth
I imagine that you assume everybody intuitively understands the abbreviation "PM". Well, you'd be wrong, at least for this FRiend.

why don't you define it for us; it would make your story so much more interesting.

18 posted on 03/10/2013 11:11:04 AM PDT by doc11355
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To: darth
"OPSEC"

I'm of the believe that probably 75% of 'OPSEC' is people keeping their damn mouths shut, and preventing outside knowledge of what you have.

19 posted on 03/10/2013 11:26:18 AM PDT by KoRn (Department of Homeland Security, Certified - "Right Wing Extremist")
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To: blam
Under normal circumstances, a $1,800 spot gold price would mean U.S. Gold Eagles around $1,890 — a 5% premium.

Why would anyone pay the spot price for 1oz of pure gold (99.99%) for a 1oz coin coin that is only 91.6% gold?

20 posted on 03/10/2013 12:02:59 PM PDT by Roccus
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To: Roccus

Bring back US manufacturing, and none of this discussion would be necessary.

Stop exporting US jobs.


21 posted on 03/10/2013 12:05:40 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Thanks for your astute answer to my question.


22 posted on 03/10/2013 12:06:35 PM PDT by Roccus
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To: Roccus

You are welcome.

For 30 years we have been sending US jobs abroad. We have switched places with China.

Except China owns all the manufacturing we are sending there.

We are creating history’s largest problem, right now.


23 posted on 03/10/2013 12:15:16 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: darth
Silly story. It is totally easy and reliable to purchase precious metals through the mail and have no one within a thousand miles of you know or care what that package was that you got on Friday.
24 posted on 03/10/2013 12:19:55 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Roccus
The American Gold Eagle contains 1.0 troy ounce of gold. You may be confused and misled by the fact that the coin itself weights 1.09 oz.
25 posted on 03/10/2013 12:27:10 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: Go_Raiders

If you wish to invest in gold stocks, that’s fine. Although I own PMs and have invested in and traded PM stocks in the past, I do not like them now. That doesn’t mean I may return to them in future...but I think investing in them is kind of wrong now. That’s just my opinion.

But GDX is IMHO absolute poison. GDX is a Goldman Sachs fund and they use it to short mining stocks by shorting the whole sector. It is poorly diversified, about 12% ABX and about 12% GG, the rest little snippets of about 1% or less of many other companies. I heartily unrecommend it.


26 posted on 03/10/2013 12:28:41 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (This stuff we're going through now, this is nothing compared to the middle ages.)
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To: hinckley buzzard

Thank you. I was unaware that the coin weighed more than 1 troy oz.


27 posted on 03/10/2013 12:33:54 PM PDT by Roccus
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To: Roccus
"Thank you. I was unaware that the coin weighed more than 1 troy oz."

The South African Krugerrand is 1.1 ounces, 1.0 ounces is gold and the other .1 ounce is copper. Pure gold is to soft to make into coins without an alloy. The copper gives the Kruggerrand it's distinctive 'red' hue. I bought many of these in the early 90's for $382.00 each.

I wish I had kept more of them than I did.

28 posted on 03/10/2013 12:50:50 PM PDT by blam
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To: chuckles; Diana in Wisconsin; Boogieman; BipolarBob; yldstrk; nodakkid; Aquamarine; BenLurkin; ...

ping


29 posted on 03/10/2013 12:51:35 PM PDT by dennisw (too much of a good thing is a bad thing --- Joe Pine)
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To: blam

I lost mine when my dumb neighbor stood up and my bass boat tipped over.


30 posted on 03/10/2013 1:00:31 PM PDT by dennisw (too much of a good thing is a bad thing --- Joe Pine)
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To: jiggyboy; PA Engineer; blam; TigerLikesRooster; Cheap_Hessian; CJinVA; Jet Jaguar; ...

Goldbug ping.


31 posted on 03/10/2013 1:04:44 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar
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To: blam

Looks like some folks want more of that gold money in stocks and bonds for now.


32 posted on 03/10/2013 1:33:36 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the planet.)
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To: doc11355

PM = precious metals, not just gold and silver but also palladium and platinum


33 posted on 03/10/2013 2:29:56 PM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: Yo-Yo
"So what is the answer? Get creative with your home remodeling." Gov people have tools to search your premises that you might noy know about, or even believe. Get VERY creative. TC
34 posted on 03/10/2013 2:30:24 PM PDT by Pentagon Leatherneck
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To: Roccus

You have to buy them from somebody on the USG’s list of dealers, who are themselves charged three or four percent to start with. You can’t buy them direct from the mint or the treasury.


35 posted on 03/10/2013 2:32:09 PM PDT by jiggyboy (Ten percent of poll respondents are either lying or insane)
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To: jiggyboy

Thanks, but not looking to. I’m in Philharmonics.


36 posted on 03/10/2013 3:20:28 PM PDT by Roccus
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To: blam
Pure gold is to soft to make into coins without an alloy.

My Philharmonics say 99.99% or am I missing something?

37 posted on 03/10/2013 3:23:02 PM PDT by Roccus
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To: hinckley buzzard

What part was silly?

My friend did keep her mouth shut.

She told no one. I am her friend and business partner and I had no idea that she had physical PMs until after the incident.

She did everything right and still almost got murdered. Her only screwup was not being armed 24X7. She and hubby were unarmed when the surprise stickup went down.

My point is that when you order PMs from another state, someone at UPS/Fedex knows that a package left a PM seller and went to a particular address. It could be a driver, clerk, manager, or whatever.

Or it could be an employee of the bullion seller who sells the info on the black market for money. It could have been a bank employee who knows what credit cards numbers and addresses are tied to bullion sales.

So how do you practice OPSEC?


38 posted on 03/10/2013 5:05:38 PM PDT by darth
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To: doc11355

PM = precious metal, i.e., gold silver platinum


39 posted on 03/10/2013 5:06:44 PM PDT by darth
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To: All

Who Owns The Federal Reserve?
The Fed is privately owned. Its shareholders are private banks

http://www.globalresearch.ca/who-owns-the-federal-reserve/10489


40 posted on 03/10/2013 5:08:51 PM PDT by dennisw (too much of a good thing is a bad thing --- Joe Pine)
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To: hinckley buzzard; Roccus

One can set up a “Precious Metals IRA” ...

PMs placed in IRAs must be 99.9% (or better) purity.
American Eagles are legit for a PM IRA.

The old silver coins (pre-1964) were 91% purity, so old silver coins CAN’T be used in PM IRAs.

IIRC - there are also old US gold coins that, like South African Krugerands, are around 91% purity - and therefore not eligible for inclusion in a PM IRA.


41 posted on 03/10/2013 8:29:09 PM PDT by Vineyard
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To: Diana in Wisconsin; TexasFreeper2009
TF: “...and when the government then demands that you turn in all your gold to them and makes it illegal to own gold (this was done before)...what are you going to do then?”

Shoot first, ask questions later. :)

If one wanted to hold onto it. The problem becomes when you want/need to sell it - and it is not sellable. (Unless you know some underworld types that you are willing to deal with).
42 posted on 03/11/2013 9:22:14 AM PDT by yorkiemom
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To: blam
The South African Krugerrand is 1.1 ounces, 1.0 ounces is gold and the other .1 ounce is copper. Pure gold is to soft to make into coins without an alloy. The copper gives the Kruggerrand it's distinctive 'red' hue. I bought many of these in the early 90's for $382.00 each.

Thanks for the info. I had been wondering how gold coins manage to not get damaged through the years, since pure gold is soft. I didn't expect that every collector was ultra-careful.
43 posted on 03/11/2013 9:25:34 AM PDT by yorkiemom
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To: darth
Do not keep PMs in your gunsafe, home, or other obvious place.

Even if someone doesn't know you have PMs, just seeing a gun safe will clue them in that you have something worth stealing. Safe deposit boxes are also suspect, since I don't trust the government to stay out of them. Hiding within the walls of a house or something similar is dangerous in the event of fire.
44 posted on 03/11/2013 9:29:04 AM PDT by yorkiemom
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To: yorkiemom

Well, Plan B is to wait for the government to come to their senses, then...WAIT! What am I talking about? LOL!

I’ll liquidate before that happens, and turn those hard assets into other hard assets: land, a paid off farm and more ammo, etc.

I watch this stuff EVERY day - they’re not going to catch me unawares.

And I have an excellent broker that I deal with, face to face. He’ll call me if he sees anything hinky on the horizon as well. :)


45 posted on 03/11/2013 10:45:57 AM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: Roccus

Are you new to this? A one ounce gold coin contains one ounce of gold. If they are soft pure 24C gold, the coin weighs one ounce. (Troy, of course, we are talking about.)

If they are harder 22C gold, they still contain one ounce of gold, plus copper, silver and other metals to make them harder and more durable. In that cases, the coins weigh about 1.1 ounce, with 1.0 ounces of it being pure gold.

Really, you didn’t know this?


46 posted on 03/11/2013 11:52:51 AM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: blam

Mine fell out of my canoe with my guns.


47 posted on 03/11/2013 11:54:00 AM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
Well, Plan B is to wait for the government to come to their senses, then...WAIT! What am I talking about? LOL! I’ll liquidate before that happens, and turn those hard assets into other hard assets: land, a paid off farm and more ammo, etc.

Good plan (the latter, that is!). I wonder - when Roosevelt confiscated gold last time - he did pay the FMV for it?
48 posted on 03/11/2013 11:59:57 AM PDT by yorkiemom
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To: yorkiemom

Some coins are “soft” pure gold. Canadian Maple Leafs, Chinese Pandas, and some others. Normally they are each kept in a little plastic case, except for inspections at sale. They can ding each other up if stored against one another.


49 posted on 03/11/2013 12:01:43 PM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Roccus

portability and recognized content and a market value based on those factors

I’m not paying anyone for “gold bullion” from some 3rd world country


50 posted on 03/11/2013 12:21:49 PM PDT by silverleaf (Age Takes a Toll: Please Have Exact Change)
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