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Russia Prepares for War with the US and NATO, While Lacking Resources
Jamestown Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor ^ | 3/14/2013 | Pavel Felgenhauer

Posted on 03/14/2013 9:27:44 PM PDT by bruinbirdman

Sergei Shoigu, a former long-time emergency situations minister (MChS) and a former Moscow region governor is a well-known and popular figure in Russia—according to recent independent Leveda-Tsentr polls, he is at present more popular than Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Last November, President Vladimir Putin sacked the highly disliked Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, replacing him with Shoigu, whose popularity has been growing ever since; Serdyukov continues to be discredited by a high-profile investigation of alleged mass misappropriations in the defense ministry under his watch. Today, Shoigu seems to be second in popularity only to Putin himself, though, according to Leveda-Tsentr director Lev Gudkov, “Shoigu’s popularity is within Putin’s core base—the elderly, badly educated and ill-informed provincial folks.” According to Gudkov, Shoigu cannot politically compete with Putin, but can with Medvedev (Kommersant, February 26).

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu

Despite Shoigu’s popularity, present plans to reverse Serdyukov’s military modernization are being attacked by experts as basically flawed and doomed to fail. In a keynote address at a seminar in Moscow this week, well-known politician and defense analyst Alexei Arbatov (62), a former Duma deputy and chief of the Center for International Security of the Russian Academy of Sciences, described Serdyukov’s attempts to reform the Russian military as “controversial.” From 2008 to 2012, then-President Medvedev continuously implied, according to Arbatov, the need to closely cooperate with the West in order to obtain technologies and know-how to modernize Russia as well as its military and civilian infrastructure. Serdyukov followed these political directives by attempting to Westernize Russia’s military structure and to procure Western-made weapons. At the same time, according to Arbatov, the Russian military doctrine, adopted in 2010, de facto implied that the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are the main threat and Russia must prepare to fight them (

Today, Arbatov noted, Russian defense and foreign policies have been streamlined and are not “controversial” anymore. It has been decided:

1) Russia is surrounded by enemies led by the US.

2) The US is using the pro-democracy opposition inside Russia to subvert the regime.

3) The US with its allies may invade Russia anytime.

4) The West plans to use military power to seize Russia’s natural riches.

5) Russia will use its own technologies to rearm its military.

6) Russia’s allies are the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or SCO nations together with Belarus, Armenia and possibly Syria.

7) Nuclear weapons are the cornerstone of Russian security, while calls for nuclear disarmament are a malicious US swindle.

According to Arbatov, Putin’s ambitious rearmament program, costing 23 trillion rubles ($754 billion) until 2020, will surely fail, since Russia does not have the needed technologies or the money, as its economy is today hit by stagflation. Russia must, Arbatov argued, return to Medvedev’s foreign policy of closely cooperating with the West, end spreading misleading propaganda about a possible imminent major war with the West, and with Western help build a modern, compact all-volunteer military of some 800,000 service personnel, while canceling conscription (

The personal wealth and political power of Putin and his close cohorts is based on the control and distribution of wealth created by exporting oil, natural gas, metals, diamonds, fertilizer and other natural riches. Putin and his supporters took over Russia in the 2000s and began to project power over neighboring nations after sidelining or destroying a previous generation of oligarchies that controlled Russia’s multiple natural resources in the 1990s. Putin and his team seem to truly believe that Russia’s riches make it the envy of the world and that the US wants to appropriate Russian oil and gas so much it is ready to risk war, if Russia is weak enough. Both Putin and his top general—First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov—have recently spoken publicly of mounting military threats and enemies surrounding Russia from all sides. Putin’s highly expensive rearmament program has, therefore, been presented as a desperate attempt to preempt Western-led military aggression (see EDM, February 14).

Putin’s rearmament program is clearly too ambitious, while the overall threat assessment that underpins it seems ludicrous. The Russian defense industry is struggling and often fails to produce decent modern weapons despite massive budget cash injections. According to defense ministry sources, some 30 percent of the 200 military helicopters procured in recent years are permanently disabled because of major technical breakdowns—mostly the newest attack helicopters, the Mi-28s and Mi-35s. Newly procured computerized command-and-control communication systems, which were intended to profoundly change the way the Russian military operates, do not work at all, and the Russian military is forced to use Cold War era-produced Soviet communications equipment that is still in working order (Vedomosti, February 15).

Plans to speedily produce and procure next generation jet fighters, tanks and warships in accordance with the rearmament plan will most likely be curtailed and postponed. The present Russian GDP is some 60 trillion rubles ($1.95 trillion). To generate enough revenue to run the rearmament program and prevent dramatic cuts to social spending, Russia’s GDP must grow to 150 trillion ($5 trillion) by 2020, which is virtually impossible. The rearmament program is not only too ambitious, it seems unbalanced, with half of the money earmarked to the Air Force and the Navy (5 trillion rubles or $164 billion each), while the Army and the Airborne Troops (VDV), which actually face serious potential security challenges in Central Asia and the Caucasus, will be given much less—2.6 trillion rubles ($85 billion) (Vedomosti, February 15). It appears that Shoigu, appointed defense minister on November 7, has outlived his 100-day grace period and will be increasingly under attack even by military experts who are basically loyal to the present regime, but who are nevertheless frustrated by the lack of adequate military decision-making.

TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gogmagog

1 posted on 03/14/2013 9:27:44 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
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To: bruinbirdman

Armageddon here we come. They decide to attack after their fellow comrade has softened the U.S. with hope and change the last 5 years.

2 posted on 03/14/2013 9:33:13 PM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: bruinbirdman

I’m pretty sure I have most of their Tula and Wolf 7.62X39.
So good luck with that, Rooskies!

3 posted on 03/14/2013 9:36:38 PM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: All armed conservatives.)
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Comment #4 Removed by Moderator

To: bruinbirdman; FARS; no-to-illegals; All

A fascinating and detailed article.

5 posted on 03/14/2013 10:25:56 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: bruinbirdman

Interesting that they claim SCO as an ally. They have to know that China is looking with envious eyes at all that undeveloped territory North of Mongolia. China needs access to natural resources like timber, water, and oil, all of which are likely present in commercial quantities in Eastern Siberia. Since the article outright admits that Russia has no money, is it reasonable to assume that they intend to repay SCO support with access to and development of Russia’s Eastern regions?

6 posted on 03/14/2013 11:04:57 PM PDT by Little Pig (Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici.)
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To: Little Pig

China and Islam are Russia’s primary enemy. All real experts within Russian military and politics are fully aware of this fact. US and the West are “official” enemies for internal consumption by low information voters.

7 posted on 03/15/2013 3:43:13 AM PDT by cunning_fish
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To: F15Eagle

Exactly what I was referring to - the Bear in Revelation. If the athiests would read the bible and see how often prophecy comes true they might at least consider that there is a God.

8 posted on 03/15/2013 4:27:50 AM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: jsanders2001

No, you are wrong.

9 posted on 03/15/2013 4:31:19 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 .....The fairest Deduction to be reduced is the Standard Deduction)
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To: bert

Well the way I see it if I’ve lived believing in Him and trying to obey him and He doesnt exist at least I’ve lived a good healthy moral life helping others and doing as little ill will towards other men as possible. If you’r wrong you might have wished you’d reconsidered...: )

10 posted on 03/15/2013 6:14:24 AM PDT by jsanders2001
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To: bruinbirdman

Looks like Pavel is still pissed that Putin ordered the arrest of his buddy Soros.

11 posted on 03/15/2013 6:31:20 AM PDT by sergeantdave
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To: cunning_fish

Ding! We have a winner!

12 posted on 03/15/2013 7:27:11 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: bruinbirdman

War with Russia is the last thing you need to worrry about. Worry about something that may really happen like war with the Progressives currently in power in this country.

13 posted on 03/15/2013 8:21:06 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: FreedomPoster

The reality is American and Russian military routinely holds joint drills using each others equipment and tactics to counter common threats. Intelligence services are pretty convergent in a lot of spheres.
The problem is simply political. Both nations were empires of evil for each other just a couple decades ago. There are tons of ignorant folks on each side still living within that reality. Both nations has election cycles and pushing around each other is an easy way for politicians on both ends to have these voters. For only that reason Russians are fed with ideas of US conspiracies against them, and America sanctions Russians over gay rights.

14 posted on 03/15/2013 8:40:24 AM PDT by cunning_fish
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To: F15Eagle
“Magog prepares along with their Ezekiel 38 ally, Iran.”

‘This is what the Sovereign Lord says: I am against you, Gog, chief prince of[b] Meshek and Tubal. 4 I will turn you around, put hooks in your jaws and bring you out with your whole army’ So Russia's turn toward democracy has been reversed. At least many of her people have heard the Word of the Lord, and warned. Putin claims to be a Christian. He really needs to read his Bible more carefully.

Iran views Gog and Magog as the victors in the coming conflict and believe Jesus will return with their mahdi and forcibly convert everyone to Islam.

15 posted on 03/15/2013 9:05:37 AM PDT by Yulee (Village of Albion)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

According to Catholic Mystics such as the Seers of Fatima, Lucia and Blessed Jacinta, the Italian Mystics and Stigmatists - Blessed Elena Aiello and Blessed Canora-Mori, and many others: Russia, with her allies the Muslims and China, among others, to attack both Europe and America by 2016, but something makes them attack sooner, before they were completely ready, whatever it is it has to do with Rome and the Pope. The mystics say that both Rome, its hierarchy, and the Church as a whole, along with the world is to be soon chastised for abandoning the traditional faith of near 2000 years.
The mystics in some instances “detail” the Russia attack which overruns all of Europe with all the Muslin nations siding with Russia. Then shortly thereafter Russia and China attack America for five sides “with help from within our own government”. Obama’s mission was to prepare America for both a Marxist Dictatorship and the Russian/Chinese attack.
One mystic told Pope JPII in 1984 that he was shown the sky black with planes and missiles going towards the West (Europe) and two submarines surfacing on the East and West Coast of America and firing their missiles at the coastal cities.
Apparently, these Mystics say that Russia and China, esp. Russia had been preparing its forces in numbers, planes, missiles and combat forces in numbers the West never imagined.
We win in the end, both in Europe and here at home, according to these mystics, but over 70% of the country and Europe dies in this four year war to happen very soon. It will be a surprise to all say the mystics, esp. to the governments of the West.
They say for the sins of abortion, homosexuality, pornography, contraception, divorce, etc, and especially for the great Apostasy now happening in both the world and the Church - where man is now attempting to have God conform to man’s idea of a God rather than the opposite and obeying God’s laws.
Here in America: No electricity for over a year, no gas, stores, food, water, etc; first a civil war and revolutions for a few months followed then by Russia’s and China’s attack when we are in chaos and turmoil. Complete anarchy and turmoil, fighting everywhere in the streets, towns, and cites, no one will escape the fighting. In the end the virtuous or “good” element completely annihilates the vice or “bad” element, but not before God allows us to be severely punished by our enemies for the above sins, then when all seems lost, then God intervenes and turns the tables. The civil war is put down, we drive our enemies into the ocean and all the bad leaders are killed and eliminated - there is not a hole or cave they will be able to hide in say the mystics, all the enemies of both God and the Chuch, both “within” and without will be destroyed in the end.
When the war is over, say the mystics again, will come the greatest era of peace and prosperity the world has ever seen from the beginning for a few generations until man falls again and then comes the anti-christ.
Google or Search: “WW3 and Visions from Central Europe”, “The Three Days Darkness” which happens in the last year of the four year war, “JR. Nyquist - A site for Patriots”, and, “The Gregorian Rite - Blessed Elena Aeillo” for a few who warn of what is to come. There are others who detail much more of the events to come both in Europe and Russia but here are a few above.

16 posted on 03/18/2013 9:15:29 AM PDT by jarheadusmc
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To: bruinbirdman

Thank God for the Russian mob,they make sure the ruskies will never go anywhere as a world power.ANd what the mob doesn’t screw up russian corruption and too much vodka does.

17 posted on 03/20/2013 10:25:38 AM PDT by rodguy911 (FreeRepublic:Land of the Free because of the Brave--Sarah Palin our secret weapon)
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