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THE HOCKEY STICK, BROKEN AGAIN
Power Line ^ | March 17, 2013 | JOHN HINDERAKER

Posted on 03/19/2013 10:50:08 PM PDT by neverdem

We wrote here about a recent effort by a group of climate alarmists headed by geologist Shaun Marcott to resurrect Michael Mann’s discredited hockey stick. The Marcott paper, as you would expect, received uncritical coverage in the liberal press. But it didn’t take long for climate scientists to begin taking it apart, as we noted in our post.

Now Steve McIntyre, who was principally responsible for showing that Mann’s original hockey stick was a fraud, has gone over Marcott’s data on the key proxies he uses for 20th century temperatures, ocean cores. McIntyre found that Marcott and his colleagues used previously published ocean core data, but have altered the dates represented by the cores, in some cases by as much as 1,000 years. Anthony Watts sums up:

It seems the uptick in the 20th century is not real, being nothing more than an artifact of shoddy procedures where the dates on the proxy samples were changed for some strange reason.

McIntyre’s post on his research is here. This chart shows how critical Marcott’s re-dating was to his conclusion that temperatures spiked in unprecedented fashion in the 20th century. The red line shows ocean core temperatures using the original dates under which the data were published: it shows cooling during the 20th century. The black line shows the same data, only with the dates changed by Marcott. It shows temperatures rising significantly, rather than declining:...

(Excerpt) Read more at powerlineblog.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: agw; climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; hockeystick

1 posted on 03/19/2013 10:50:08 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem; SunkenCiv; All

Climate change ping


2 posted on 03/19/2013 11:14:01 PM PDT by gleeaikin
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To: neverdem; Ernest_at_the_Beach

Here’s yer ding ding ding ping ping ping!!!


3 posted on 03/19/2013 11:14:47 PM PDT by SierraWasp (Mark Twain said: "It's easier to fool someone than to convince them they've been fooled!!!)
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To: neverdem

it’s a funny sort “science” where someone can come up with some statistically based guesses about a temperature and date associated with some long dead biomatter deposited in an ocean core, and then someone later can change the date guesses (oh by say 1000 years or so) based again on some obscure statistical manipulation but of course find nothing wrong with the previous person’s temperature guesses.

all the mysterious statistical manipulations, complete with “uncertainty estimates,” leading to exactly the opposite result from previous interpretation of the exact same raw data, leading to a fat government payday for the “new” result.

but put your uncertainty aside and be assured, it is all very “scientifical.”


4 posted on 03/19/2013 11:56:11 PM PDT by dadfly
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To: neverdem
This is a classic:

Ah, the wonders of Warmist "science." Adjust the numbers until they prove AGW.

Steve McIntyre is a hero.

5 posted on 03/19/2013 11:58:48 PM PDT by TChad (Call them Oppressives, not Progressives.)
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To: neverdem
Hide The Decline
6 posted on 03/20/2013 12:58:00 AM PDT by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: BerryDingle

To: neverdem
it’s a funny sort “science” where someone can come up with some statistically based guesses about a temperature and date associated with some long dead biomatter deposited in an ocean core, and then someone later can change the date guesses (oh by say 1000 years or so) based again on some obscure statistical manipulation but of course find nothing wrong with the previous person’s temperature guesses....

And remember that all this was probably accomplished by getting a “Government Grant”...... Now THAT is important, eh?


7 posted on 03/20/2013 3:54:14 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: TChad
but have altered the dates represented by the cores

Is this type of fraud prosecutable?

8 posted on 03/20/2013 4:03:51 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: neverdem
To me, the most significant part of this article is when Hinderaker comes out and calls Marcott and Mann frauds. Mann is already suing National Review Online and Mark Steyn for such accusations. Hinderaker must be very confident that he can stand up to a similar lawsuit.
9 posted on 03/20/2013 4:25:25 AM PDT by norwaypinesavage (Galileo: In science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of one individual)
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To: dadfly

What are they cores of? Ice? Surely not wood?


10 posted on 03/20/2013 5:08:49 AM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: dadfly

What are they cores of? Ice? Surely not wood?


11 posted on 03/20/2013 5:08:49 AM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: scrabblehack

If one nickel of federal money was spent on this study, the guy should spend the rest of his life in jail. That would be the fate of any defense contractor who did something like this.


12 posted on 03/20/2013 6:13:51 AM PDT by studly hungwell (Mohammad and Marx: Spreading misery and death wherever their ideas go.)
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To: SierraWasp; neverdem
Have post several articles from Watts up with that?....closely following Steve McIntrye's work in showing the marcott's fudging of the data base he used to come up with the hockey Stick once again.

Keyword Globalwarminghoax shows them.

I'll check shortly to see if Anthony has anything new.

13 posted on 03/20/2013 9:54:29 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: norwaypinesavage

Isn’t he a lawyer also....maybe he wants Mann to sue him.....now that could get interesting.


14 posted on 03/20/2013 9:56:58 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: norwaypinesavage
From the powerline website:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/about-us

John H. Hinderaker is a lawyer with a nationwide litigation practice.

15 posted on 03/20/2013 10:01:32 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: 1010RD; neverdem; SierraWasp
Not likely....it's just a case of a "climate scientitst torturing his data"

WUWT is all over this....

Just found this item and posted it on this thread:

Uh oh, there be grafting in Marcott et al ( Marcott's reconstruction of Mann's Hockey Stick...)

16 posted on 03/20/2013 10:21:49 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: scrabblehack

Ice cores likely.


17 posted on 03/20/2013 10:23:05 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: neverdem

I have a theory. Every time someone invokes a “hockey stick” prediction; it’s bullshit.


18 posted on 03/20/2013 10:25:19 AM PDT by SeaHawkFan
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To: studly hungwell
Where you been....

It is estimated that our Federal Goverment has spent $90 billion plus in the last decade plus funding such research papers.

19 posted on 03/20/2013 10:26:55 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: dadfly; scrabblehack
Not sure what you mean by "Ocean Core" but I did find this:

Oceanic core complex

and a picture:

Saint Peter Saint Paul Megamullion, Equatorial Atlantic Ocean after Motoki et al. (2007)

20 posted on 03/20/2013 10:37:41 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: studly hungwell
Looking for any one of several sources for the 90 Billion $ .

I remember JoNova having an article on that fact,...might have been less ,...it was some time ago.

21 posted on 03/20/2013 10:42:29 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: studly hungwell
Just turned this up, had not seen it before.....FR thread:

Washington Turns Science to Science Fiction

Covers the spending on Green Energy ...which is huge also.

22 posted on 03/20/2013 10:50:05 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: neverdem

“Global Warming” is a myth created by the mental disease of Liberalism. Good luck using facts and reason against it. A cure would involve inpatient treatment.


23 posted on 03/20/2013 10:51:04 AM PDT by pabianice
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To: norwaypinesavage
See this thread for a quick read:

FOIA, Government-Funded Climate Science and Hole-Digging

24 posted on 03/20/2013 10:57:44 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: pabianice; cripplecreek
Photo just posted on thread by cripplecreek

...see #24.

*************************************************


25 posted on 03/20/2013 11:08:51 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

*Feel the Warmth*...BRRRrrrrr..

26 posted on 03/20/2013 11:15:23 AM PDT by skinkinthegrass (who'll take tomorrow,$pend it all today;who can take your income,tax it all away..0'Blowfly can :-)
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To: skinkinthegrass
LOL!

Worth a double posting.

27 posted on 03/20/2013 11:22:39 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I didn’t know Hinderacker was a lawyer, too. He’s obviously throwing down the gauntlet to Mann. I’m sure you’ve seen some of the posts about Mann on Anthony Watts’ site. He seems to me to be an adolescent petulant person.


28 posted on 03/20/2013 11:33:32 AM PDT by norwaypinesavage (Galileo: In science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of one individual)
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To: norwaypinesavage
He is pretty damn arrogant....I would love to see what happens if he were to sue Hinderacker.

That could get real interesting real FAST.

29 posted on 03/20/2013 12:52:05 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: gleeaikin; Ernest_at_the_Beach; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ...

Thanks gleeaikin.


30 posted on 03/20/2013 4:17:58 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: 1010RD
Is this type of fraud prosecutable?

On reading the comments below the original article and also the discussion here by a guy who tried to recreate Marcott's results, it sounds like neither the original data nor Marcott's revised data can be trusted. Those big upward and downward spikes near 2000 could be artifacts.

As for prosecutable fraud, IANAL but I think we will have to settle for Marcott's reputation taking a hit.

31 posted on 03/20/2013 11:18:02 PM PDT by TChad (Call them Oppressives, not Progressives.)
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To: TChad

Was his intent to deceive? Did he gain from his deception? It seems that it should be prosecutable:

Fraud is generally defined in the law as an intentional misrepresentation of material existing fact made by one person to another with knowledge of its falsity and for the purpose of inducing the other person to act, and upon which the other person relies with resulting injury or damage. Fraud may also be made by an omission or purposeful failure to state material facts, which nondisclosure makes other statements misleading.

To constitute fraud, a misrepresentation or omission must also relate to an ‘existing fact’, not a promise to do something in the future, unless the person who made the promise did so without any present intent to perform it or with a positive intent not to perform it. Promises to do something in the future or a mere expression of opinion cannot be the basis of a claim of fraud unless the person stating the opinion has exclusive or superior knowledge of existing facts which are inconsistent with such opinion. The false statement or omission must be material, meaning that it was significant to the decision to be made.

Sometimes, it must be shown that the plaintiff’s reliance was justifiable, and that upon reasonable inquiry would not have discovered the truth of the matter. For injury or damage to be the result of fraud, it must be shown that, except for the fraud, the injury or damage would not have occurred.

To constitute fraud the misrepresentation or omission must be made knowingly and intentionally, not as a result of mistake or accident, or in negligent disregard of its truth or falsity. Also, the plaintiff must prove that the defendant intended for the plaintiff to rely upon the misrepresentation and/or omission; that the plaintiff did in fact rely upon the misrepresentation and/or omission; and that the plaintiff suffered injury or damage as a result of the fraud. Damages may include punitive damages as a punishment or public example due to the malicious nature of the fraud.

There are many state and federal laws to regulate fraud in numerous areas. Some of the areas most heavily litigated include consumer fraud, corporate fraud, and insurance fraud.

http://definitions.uslegal.com/f/fraud/


32 posted on 03/21/2013 5:23:19 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

If Steve McIntyre or others in the field are willing to testify that this was fraud, then perhaps it could be successfully prosecuted. I would not like to be the guy who had to explain such complex, highly technical research to a jury that had little or no science background. If Marcott had a grad student research assistant who would testify that he or she was told to fabricate results or to discard results that did not support AGW, that would be a huge help to the prosecution. Without such a smoking gun, and without heavyweight expert witnesses, prosecution for fraud sounds to me like an uphill battle.


33 posted on 03/21/2013 7:11:40 PM PDT by TChad (Call them Oppressives, not Progressives.)
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To: TChad

At some point something has to be done. You cannot have two absolutely differing facts. Science can debate causes until they’re blue in the face and politicians can latch on to one that serves their cause or purpose. But how can you have two opposite “facts” without fraud?

Science is about experimentation and falsification.


34 posted on 03/22/2013 4:23:46 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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