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Will We Get Another 11 Million Illegals after an Amnesty?
National Review Online ^ | March 25, 2013 | Mark Krikorian

Posted on 03/25/2013 7:28:46 PM PDT by neverdem

Over the weekend, Michael Barone posited that, contra claims by Steve Sailer and Mickey Kaus, he doesn’t think massive Mexican immigration will resume once the economy rebounds and if we pass an amnesty. James Pethokoukis from AEI made the same point, without really any elucidation, during the podcast we did (with Kaus and Treviño) at Ricochet a while back.

Barone points to a recent Gallup survey that finds 5 million Mexicans saying they want to move here, compared to 22 million telling Pew in 2005 they’d come here as guest workers if they could. He further points to Puerto Rico, where he claims emigration to the U.S. abruptly ended decades ago.

Sailer responds that robust immigration from Puerto Rico is actually ongoing. And I addressed the “Mexican immigration is over” narrative in some detail over at The National Interest last year. But I think the most important point is this, from Sailer’s response:

Why don’t we wait five years and see what happens with immigration before passing some massive immigration “reform” law based on suppositions about how Fortunately, It Can’t Happen Again?

Simple prudence suggests that we simply can’t know whether Mexico has permanently left its mass emigration phase until we see what happens during an economic expansion in the U.S. Deferring any consideration of a huge amnesty is also necessary to see if the administration’s claims that the border is secure are true., since there are lots of other places illegals come from, too; compared to Honduras, for instance, Mexico looks like Beverly Hills.

This is sort of what Rand Paul was getting at in saying that Congress would have to “certify” that the borders are secure annually for five years. But if  I understood that part of his proposal correctly, the illegal aliens would get legal status after the first such vote, rendering subsequent votes irrelevant, since there’s no chance whatsoever that the work cards, Social Security accounts, driver’s licenses, etc., given to “provisionally” amnestied illegals would ever be taken away.

Soothing predictions about the moderate and limited effect of proposed immigration changes have a poor track record, to say the least, as do predictions about large government-policy changes generally. Maybe the most spectacular misjudgment was Ted Kennedy’s assurances about the effects of the 1965 immigration law:

First, our cities will not be flooded with a million immigrants annually. Under the proposed bill, the present level of immigration remains substantially the same . . . Secondly, the ethnic mix of this country will not be upset . . . Contrary to the charges in some quarters, [the bill] will not inundate America with immigrants from any one country or area, or the most populated and deprived nations of Africa and Asia . . . In the final analysis, the ethnic pattern of immigration under the proposed measure is not expected to change as sharply as the critics seem to think. . . .

The bill will not flood our cities with immigrants. It will not upset the ethnic mix of our society. It will not relax the standards of admission. It will not cause American workers to lose their jobs.

Can’t get much wronger than that. Unless you look at predictions about the cost of another disastrous 1965 consequence of Goldwater’s defeat, the establishment of Medicare. As Cato reports:

When Medicare was launched in 1965, Part A was projected to cost $9 billion by 1990, but ended up costing $67 billion. When Medicaid’s special hospitals subsidy was added in 1987, it was supposed to cost $100 million annually, but it already cost $11 billion by 1992. When Medicare’s home care benefit was added in 1988, it was projected to cost $4 billion in 1993, but ended up costing $10 billion. Or consider that when Massachusetts Commonwealth Care was put into place in 2006, it was expected to cost about $725 million annually, but the expected cost for 2009 is now almost $1 billion.

And don’t forget Dick Cheney’s infamous Iraq prediction:

MR. RUSSERT: If your analysis is not correct, and we’re not treated as liberators, but as conquerors, and the Iraqis begin to resist, particularly in Baghdad, do you think the American people are prepared for a long, costly, and bloody battle with significant American casualties?

VICE PRES. CHENEY: Well, I don’t think it’s likely to unfold that way, Tim, because I really do believe that we will be greeted as liberators.

I’m not trying to say that my predictions are always right and everyone else’s are wrong. It could be that Barone is right that mass immigration from Mexico is over. But he himself acknowledges “the nontrivial possibility that I could be wrong.” Given that very real possibility, it would be irresponsible to go along with the president’s demand that Congress pass an immigration bill “as soon as possible.”



TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: aliens; amnesty; illegalaliens; illegalimmigration

1 posted on 03/25/2013 7:28:46 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

You can count me as one. I’m sick of working my ass off to support these people. Time I get some some.


2 posted on 03/25/2013 7:31:12 PM PDT by bigheadfred
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To: neverdem

11 million more after the legalize the 40 million already here!


3 posted on 03/25/2013 7:32:25 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: neverdem

Demography is destiny. Ten million more ‘Rat voters, forever. We’re screwed.


4 posted on 03/25/2013 7:37:06 PM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: neverdem

Comprehensive means to me a de facto merger with Mexico.


5 posted on 03/25/2013 7:37:44 PM PDT by DManA
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To: neverdem

We’ll get 20 or 30 million immediately and another 40 or 50 million relatives later.


6 posted on 03/25/2013 7:40:47 PM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: dalereed

I have tried to explain this before. Legalizing the 11 million doesn’t alter the reasons that they are here in the first place. As soon as the illegal population is lost there will be a vacuum created. Millions of new illegals will begin streaming in to fill that vacuum. This is THE issue for maintaining conservatism in America. Losing on this issue will be the death of liberty... period.


7 posted on 03/25/2013 7:40:49 PM PDT by HMS Surprise (Chris Christie can STILL go straight to hell.)
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To: dalereed

What’s the source for the 40 million already here? That’s the person or organization citing that figure, not Latin America and elsewhere.


8 posted on 03/25/2013 7:40:52 PM PDT by neverdem ( Xin loi min oi)
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To: neverdem

Not likely because Mexican economy has done better lately than US economy with respect to jobs. With Obummer in charge, we are no longer a magnet for job seekers. However the freeloaders will still be attracted to Obummer regime.


9 posted on 03/25/2013 7:42:00 PM PDT by entropy12 (The republic is doomed cuz people have figured out they can get free stuff by voting democrats)
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To: neverdem

With the 30 million that are already here, you’ll have to throw in 2 papas, 2 mamas, 4 kids, 2 tios, 2 tias, 16 to 32 cousins and a partridge in a pear tree for each one of those 30 million. Bad news for us.


10 posted on 03/25/2013 7:42:20 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Whatever happened to the land of the free, home of the brave?)
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To: neverdem

11m? easy. there are 60m in Mexico city just waiting to show up

I’m totally sure my family was fighting and dying so Mexicans can enjoy e country we built
/venom-dripping-sarcasm


11 posted on 03/25/2013 7:43:58 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: neverdem

If I could get away with it, I would be living in Switzerland.


12 posted on 03/25/2013 7:46:37 PM PDT by ansel12 (" I would not be in the United States Senate if it wasnt for Sarah Palin " Cruz said.)
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To: neverdem

Anybody believing the current count is anywhere near as low as 11 million, needs their head examined.


13 posted on 03/25/2013 7:46:51 PM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: neverdem; Liz; cripplecreek; AuntB; Tennessee Nana; TADSLOS; ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas; ...

No this will solve the problem ONCE AND FOR ALL!

And they will vote Republican.

And Santa Claus is coming to town.


14 posted on 03/25/2013 7:48:22 PM PDT by sickoflibs (To GOP : Any path to US citizenship IS putting them ahead in line. Stop lying about your position.)
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To: HMS Surprise

Exactly. Once the ‘RATS put them on the freeway to “citizenship”, they’re going to demand union wages. Employers who currently use illegal alien labor now will be demanding a new wave of illegal, non-freeway to “citizenship” types to fill the vacuum. Those illegals currently here will have to shift over to unemployment and welfare for their ride down the freeway to “citizenship”. What a mess!


15 posted on 03/25/2013 7:48:50 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Whatever happened to the land of the free, home of the brave?)
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To: neverdem

Reagan taught us that Amnesty produces 11 Million Illegal future Aliens plus the Millions of Aliens that Amnesty was given to.

Michael Barone as the article put it “ - - - he doesn’t think - - -. “


16 posted on 03/25/2013 7:51:29 PM PDT by Graewoulf (Traitor John Roberts' Commune-Style Obama'care' violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer
Employers who currently use illegal alien labor now will be demanding a new wave of illegal, non-freeway to “citizenship” types to fill the vacuum.

That's why I get so agitated when I listen to them blather on about how we need guest worker programs. We've had guest worker programs for all of my 49 years and they just want more.
17 posted on 03/25/2013 7:52:02 PM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: cripplecreek

Exactly.


18 posted on 03/25/2013 7:53:00 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Whatever happened to the land of the free, home of the brave?)
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To: neverdem
Of course millions more will come illegally to fill the cheap wage gap.

The greedy unscrupulous employers here in the U.S. will need to find more dirt cheap illegal labor, after their newly legalized illegal employees want more money and figure out company benefits don't mean 5 minute breaks.

19 posted on 03/25/2013 7:54:20 PM PDT by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: neverdem
An additional 11 million? If only! Osama Obama & Friends will next move to make Mexico the 51st,52nd,53rd...60th state.
20 posted on 03/25/2013 8:06:58 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative ("Progressives" toss the word "racist" around like chimps toss their feces)
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To: ansel12

I’m sorry, I didn’t understand your point. Press one to speak spanish


21 posted on 03/25/2013 8:07:15 PM PDT by stanne
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To: neverdem

The 57 states must collectively fight the federal gummint.

It’s that simple.


22 posted on 03/25/2013 8:09:48 PM PDT by quantim (Victory is not relative, it is absolute.)
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To: neverdem

They have been floating that 11 million crap for the last 15 years when there is at least another million coming here every year.

There are at least 2 million of the bastards in Los Angeles alone.


23 posted on 03/25/2013 8:09:48 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: dalereed

Our ‘leaders’ sell citizenship for votes ... Jerks. Then they call us ‘racists’ if we object.

Here’s the solution - if we’re going to whore our country let’s use the money to pay down the debt. Rather than ‘giving it away cheap’ let’s charge people to be citizens. Highest bidders win.


24 posted on 03/25/2013 8:12:22 PM PDT by GOPJ (DHS HAS secured: 1.6 BILLION bullets - 2.700 tanks and 35,000 drones ...to use on American soil...)
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To: stanne

Meo vamanoso for Switzerlando.


25 posted on 03/25/2013 8:15:03 PM PDT by ansel12 (" I would not be in the United States Senate if it wasnt for Sarah Palin " Cruz said.)
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To: GOPJ

The solution to illegal aliens is simple.

Audit eveery business for their compliance of I-9 rules and fine the hell out of any employer hiring illegals including homeowners, cut off all welfare and medical care andfood stamps and they will self deport real quick.

They can either self deport or die in the street of starvation and I don’t care which!


26 posted on 03/25/2013 8:16:59 PM PDT by dalereed
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To: neverdem

http://www.johnspeedie.com/healy/Uh_Yeah.mp3


27 posted on 03/25/2013 8:28:05 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both)
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To: neverdem
Will We Get Another 11 Million Illegals after an Amnesty?

Of course, someone will have to do the work they will no longer have to do.

28 posted on 03/25/2013 8:28:40 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (And winter is coming.)
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To: neverdem

Given the history of the last several amnestys, I would predict we will get 18-20 million after this amnesty.


29 posted on 03/25/2013 9:11:10 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (I can neither confirm or deny that; even if I could, I couldn't - it's classified.)
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To: neverdem

“Will We Get Another 11 Million Illegals After An Amnesty?”

Gee, I dunno. But what usually happens when bad behavior is rewarded?


30 posted on 03/25/2013 9:12:25 PM PDT by tumblindice (America's founding fathers: All armed conservatives.)
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To: neverdem

This issue alone proves the GOP elite are not on our side, the conservative side.

They could stop this. They will not. They know almost ALL of these people will vote Democrat and they are fine with it. They are in it with the Democrat leadership. Boner and Cantor doing their conservative black list and purge this year, continuing to approve spending, not saying anything about the idiocy of sequester cuts that Obama has made that could have cut other things less visible (ie like White House tours and regional FAA airport staff, instead could cut studies about why 3/4 of lesbians are obese and endless monkey studies)

Our leadership is Vichy Republicans. They are in freaking cahoots with the Democrats. Just biding their time, enjoying what little power they have, trying to gain media points appearing to cave and compromise, they are the proverbial fat girl desperately wanting the handsome guy to ask her to dance. The handsome guy (media) always dances with the cheerleader (libtards) and the RINOS cry why nobody likes them, they caved off their original position.

It’s pathetic. And they tell us WE’RE the problem. This year they can all go to hell.


31 posted on 03/25/2013 9:19:38 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (I can neither confirm or deny that; even if I could, I couldn't - it's classified.)
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To: neverdem

“Over the weekend, Michael Barone posited that, contra claims by Steve Sailer and Mickey Kaus, he doesn’t think massive Mexican immigration will resume once the economy rebounds and if we pass an amnesty.”

Proof again that Michael Barone is a privileged class idiot. Although some of us have known that for a long time.


32 posted on 03/25/2013 10:47:55 PM PDT by Pelham (Without Deportation you have De Facto Amnesty.)
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To: neverdem

Of course.

Next silly question.


33 posted on 03/26/2013 1:07:00 AM PDT by Jack Hammer
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To: Graewoulf
Reagan taught us

Reagan taught us that Democrats cannot be trusted to honor their word.

"This amnesty will give citizenship to only 1.1-1.3 million illegal aliens. We will secure the borders henceforth. We will never again bring forward another Amnesty Bill like this." Ted Kennedy, 1986

34 posted on 03/26/2013 4:52:32 AM PDT by MosesKnows
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To: neverdem
"11 Million" is not to be taken literally.

It is simply the base unit for illegal immigration and was calculated by estimating the number of illegal aliens living in LA County and then going to lunch.

The actual number of illegal aliens is somewhere between 11 million and 11 billion, give or take a chamaco or two.
Q "Hey Fred, how many illegal Mexicans in Cudahy?"
A" 'Bout 11 million."

35 posted on 03/26/2013 8:40:43 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (The Obama Molecule: Teflon binds with Melanin = No Criminal Charges Stick)
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To: neverdem

Nothing will stop the influx of criminal trespassers until the benefit magnet is shut off.

Notice how some self deported themselves when the economy tanked and the benefits of being in the USA were not enough to keep them here.

When we continue to offer health care, food, education, jobs why on earth would they ever stop coming here?

If only their cesspool of country of origin clean up their act. Also makes me wonder why they want to stick to their culture. It seems to suck.


36 posted on 03/26/2013 9:06:43 AM PDT by Wurlitzer (Nothing says "ignorance" like Islam!)
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To: neverdem
[Article]
Maybe the most spectacular misjudgment was Ted Kennedy’s assurances about the effects of the 1965 immigration law: ...

Misjudgment??!! Are you kidding me?!

That was one of the biggest, hugest, most humongous witting lies told in all of American history.

37 posted on 03/26/2013 1:15:58 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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