Skip to comments.Uh oh: Mark Sanford trails Democrat by two in hypothetical SC-1 match-up
Posted on 03/26/2013 2:37:25 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The standard disclaimer: Yes, PPP is left-leaning (they're Kos's pollster) so you may, if you're so inclined, conclude that they're trying to depress Republican turnout/boost Democratic turnout in the upcoming special election with these numbers. And now the obligatory footnote: They were pretty darned accurate in last year's presidential polling.
I'm skeptical that even a tarnished GOP nominee is vulnerable in a district like SC-1 that has a Partisan Voter Index of R+11 (which is why I thought the general election would be a walkover), but that's what makes this data potentially significant. Is Sanford's image so tarnished that he'd actually put the seat in jeopardy by boosting turnout among Democrats and anti-Sanford independents? And will Republican primary voters start to think twice about him now that they’ve seen these numbers? If ever there was a poll with the potential to affect the outcome of a race, it’s this one.
Sanford remains a strong favorite for the Republican nomination heading into next week’s runoff. He leads Bostic 53/40. The horse race numbers closely mirror his favorability with GOP voters- 55% see him positively to 40% with a negative opinion. If there’s a silver lining for Bostic it’s that he still has a name recognition deficit- 77% of voters have heard of him to 95% for Sanford- and among voters who are familiar with him he trails Sanford only 49/46. That suggests some possibility of closing as voters focus in on the choice between the two in the final weeks, but Bostic may just not have enough time.
Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it’s surprisingly close for one simple reason- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly dislike Sanford. 45% of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative opinion. On the other hand Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a negative light.
The big question for Sanford is whether the Republicans who don’t like him- 39% of them- will be willing to vote for him anyway in the general election. The undecideds in a Sanford/Busch race voted for Mitt Romney by a 77/12 margin in 2012 so they’re an extremely GOP leaning group but because of their distaste for Sanford there’s a chance that they’ll vote for Busch or more likely just stay at home if Sanford is the candidate. If Sanford can up his share of the Republican vote in the general to 85% once he’s the nominee that would probably be enough to put him over the top.
Busch leads Sanford 47/45 but ties with Bostic at 43, with Bostic obviously having room to grow if he can get his name recognition up. Case in point, compare the “not sure” lines in the two data sets below.
The numbers among independents are … not good (in fact, Bostic’s favorability overall is just 30/42), but you don’t need broad appeal to win a district this red. If he can raise his profile a bit, most of those “not sures” are likely to move his way. Rick Santorum’s going to try to help him do that: He announced this morning that he’s endorsing Bostic, whose base is among evangelicals, in the GOP runoff. If you’re an undecided Republican voter who’s interested first and foremost in holding the seat, he’s the obvious choice, no? The generic unknown nominee’s a safer bet in a heavily Republican district than the famous one known for skipping out for a few days as governor to visit his mistress on another continent.
Exit question: Will Huckabee endorse Bostic too? The race for the social conservative champion in 2016 is on.
My bet wouldn’t be on “slick - Sanford”. He will need to beat the celebrity machine in the main election and they will kill Sanford and his reputation.
If you try hard enough, a candidate can screw up almost anything.
Murdoch ran 14 points behind Romney here in Indiana and we got Obama Joe for 6 years.
Sanford did that to himself by hiking that Appalachian Trail. If you're going to screw around - don't get married.
In other news, the same voters have a 90% favorable opinion of Tiger Woods. These are the voters formerly known as the Moral Majority.
Wait for it..Todd Aiken is gonna endorse Sanford
South Carolina Ping
Send FReepmail to join or leave this list.
Keep up with what our Congresscritters are doing. Sign up for the free MegaVote email service here.
Mark Sanford was a faith and values politician. When he had a chance to do the right thing and to quit politics and spare his family any further pain and embarassment, his true nature would not let him do that. It’s all about the game with Sanford, what’s right be damned.
Is not Tim Scott in this seat?
Will he not run to retain it? By being appointed to this seat did he not loose his representative seat?
Tim Scott was appointed to fill Jim DeMint’s Senate seat when DeMint resigned.
The SC-1 seat was occupied by Tim Scott. Gov Halley appointed Scott to serve out the remainder of Jim DeMint’s Senate term when DeMint resigned his seat to run the Heritage Foundation.
AFAIK, Scott will run for DeMint’s seat when it comes up for reelection.
A special election is being held to fill Scott’s open House seat.
Forget about it. Sanford wins easily.
90% of the electorate is clueless. They vote for “a name they heard of before.”
The whole thing is a freakin’ joke.
That’s sad, give up the fight, and cave.
My brother lives in SC. Sanford will win the seat easily.
Ain’t no liberal democrat going to beat a republican in SC.
If it’s hypothetical, then why worry about it?
Sanford is 100% a States Right’s conservative. That’s why he wins the seat. He’ll also be reelected governor one day. He was 1000 times better than Haley. If he were a democrat he would already be president.
And affairs of State, must take precedence over the affairs of State.
Ah, but only if she’s a hot Argentinian beauty with a husky voice.