Top Goldman strategist Abby Joseph Cohen is on BloombergTV talking stocks with Tom Keene.
Cohen is known for being generally bullish, and she is not disappointing today.
She is bullish on US stocks, despite stocks being at record highs.
She says that contrary to popular belief, the real economy has actually roared back more than the stock market has.
And furthermore, for the first time since the crisis ended, the US economy has found momentum, suggesting in her view that the next recession is "pretty far off into the future."
If you've missed this rally, she doesn't suggest jumping in all at once, but engaging in a diversification process, trimming down cash and bond exposure.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/abby-joseph-cohen-bullish-2013-4#ixzz2PJ5I0PSQ
NYSE Morning Update:
Ahead of the Bell: Dow futures are trading up 59 points and S&P futures are trading up 6 points. Modest factory activity data from the euro zone and expectations of further monetary easing by global central banks is temping investors to jump back into equities. The Japanese yen is gaining ground against the US dollar ahead of the Central Bank of Japan’s policy meeting; investors are hoping the central bank will provide more monetary easing. A euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index showed level of factory activity was in line with expectations, which has halted a 20-month contraction. The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates unchanged.
On the economic calendar today, motor vehicle sales for March will be out prior to the opening bell, 12.1 M is forecasted compared with the same reading for the month prior. Factory order for February will be out after the market opens, it is expected to be 2.9% compared with -2.0% for January.
The dollar is up against the euro and British pound and down against the Japanese yen. Gold is trading at $1,596. Crude oil is currently trading at $96 a barrel.
Yesterday, stocks retreated, following disappointing manufacturing data from the US, as investors await a slew of central bank meetings later in the week. Most major markets were closed for the Easter Holidays.
On CNBC today, Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, talked about the Federal Reserve, the housing market, and equities. Minerd said it will be a tricky situation when the Federal Reserve finally decides to wind down its monetary policy. He feels the road ahead for the central bank is difficult and he is not sure they can pull it off. The Fed could be behind themselves on the inflation curve. On the housing sector, he believes homes prices will appreciate about 50% in the next few years. He added, it is premature to think there is a bubble in the housing market. On the equity market, Minerd is bullish on equities; he is forecasting a 30% to 35% increase in the next three years, although a 5% to 10% pull back is possible.
DJIA down 5.69 pts/-0.04%/ 14,572.85
S&P down 7.02 pts/-0.45%/ 1,562.17
Nasdaq down 28.35 pts/-0.87%/ 3,239.17
Dow Futures up 59.27 pts/+0.41%
S&P Futures up 6.50 pts/+0.40%
Nasdaq Fut up 18.25 pts/+0.66%
CAC 40 +1.16%
NIKKEI 225 -1.08%
HANG SENG +0.31%
Overseas: World stock markets are mixed today. European markets are up on better than expected manufacturing data. Asian markets are down as investors await the Central Bank of Japan policy meeting later this week.
Economic Reports: Motor Vehicle Sales expected to be 12.1M and Factory Orders expected to be 2.9% at 10:00 a.m.
Homebuilder Taylor Morrison Home Corp plans to raise approximately $524 million in an IPO. The company is backed by Oaktree Capital Management, TPG Global and JH Investments Inc.
Goldman Sachs (GS) has registered a fund that invests in risky credit products as a publicly traded business development company, a way to avoid regulation that limits business activity.
Hess Corporation (HES) plans on selling its Russian unit to Lukoil for about $2.05 billion as the company reshape its energy business.
Gold: down $3.60 to $1,596.80
Oil: down 0.09 to $96.08
EUR/USD 1.2832 -0.0011
USD/JPY 94.2410 +0.0595
GBP/USD 1.5174 -0.0050
Volatility Index (VIX): As of the close of business Monday, April 1, the VIX is up 0.88 at 13.58
Companies Reporting Quarterly Earnings:
McCormick reports Q1 EPS 57c, vs. Est 56c and Q1 revenue $934.4M, vs. Est $922.66M.
Affymax reports Q4 EPS ($1.85), vs. Est (61c) and Q4 revenue $14.80M, vs. Est $14.81M.
Todays Opening and Closing Bells:
Autism Speaks — Highlighting World Autism Awareness Day will ring the opening bell.
U.S. Soccer Federation Celebrating 100th Anniversary will ring the closing bell.
..if so, maybe one of you financial types here could enlighten me, or straighten out my thinking...
....banks "raw material" is money..
...given the present FED actions, the banks' cost for their raw material is near zer0, so are they using the money in the stock market instead of lending it into the private sector?..
.. would this perhaps be the main reason for the stock market rally?
I know that if I was in the ice cream business, and my cost of milk was near zero, even I could make a killing....
....what will happen if the FED is unable to hold the interest rate at such a low level, and it rises 3 or 4 points?
Ping to Tim. Read your comments on the 3/28 thread RE: “Investment-wise?? Id recommend LYB, or WLK...” and thought you might be interested in this:
“LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) is a Dutch-based chemicals company and the world’s largest producer of polypropylene. It pays a dividend yield of 2.5% on a payout ratio of 26%. The stock has returned 56.4% over the past 12 months. Its beta is 2.53, which implies that the stock’s return could be 2.53 times the market’s return. Improving global economic environment has had a positive effect on the company’s performance. Last year, the company’s EBITDA and EPS expanded by 5% and 32%, respectively. Analysts forecast the firm’s long-term EPS CAGR at 10.4%. LYB is positive about its outlook, expecting to benefit from low ethane and propane costs and the positive momentum in U.S. ethylene, propylene, and polyethylene segments. With robust free cash flow, LYB has been returning excess cash to shareholders through special dividends and share buybacks. The firm plans to seek approval to repurchase 10% of its issued share capital. LYB’s prudent financial management is also noteworthy, as the company has reduced its total debt by 40% since 2010. This and the company’s growth and cash flow records have earned it an investment-grade rating. Given the stock’s forward P/E of 10.4x, it can be considered a good value investment. The stock is popular with Tiger Cub hedge funder Rob Citrone.”
From article: 5 High-Beta Dividend Stocks To Try To Beat The Market
AKS is a steel company and it has fallen from over $90 to $3.17 all the while the dow has been climbing. If the economy is roaring, I guess steel is not part of it.
(gold down about $25 today)
JIM SINCLAIR post for today:
My Dear Extended Family,
This is a massive attempt to break gold in order to camouflage the weakening Western banking sector. Paid bashers are flooding in to all pro-gold sites and many other pro-gold sites are under attack in other ways.
Gold banks are flogging the paper market seeking to depress the price but without selling too much.
It is so obvious that this is a gold bank organized strategy to keep gold under $1600. Old lows will hold and the reversal will be at a spiritual level.
My strategy is to simply to do nothing.