Posted on 04/04/2013 8:36:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This isn't merely a failure of nerve, it's a failure of intelligence and a failure to keep operational secrets. The White House had a "playbook," agreed to by O, Hagel, and John Kerry, on how to rattle its saber at North Korea during the next crisis without rattling it so much that NK would get spooked and do something rash. E.g., first comes some B-52 flights over South Korea, then the B-2s make a cameo, then the F-22s, and so forth. Problem one: Kim's gone further in his bellicosity than U.S. analysts expected and now they’re unsure if they know where his personal red line is. Problem two: The deployment of two destroyers last weekend to the Pacific wasn’t part of the “playbook” and wasn’t supposed to be publicized. That was a bona fide strategic move, not a show of muscle-flexing designed for North Korean and international consumption. But then the news leaked and the Navy confirmed it, which turned the deployment into an inadvertent, potentially war-sparking audible.
One screw-up on top of another, so now it’s time to cool things off before someone gets nuked.
Officials said publicizing the destroyers risked ratcheting up tensions with the North more than the White House had intended. Likewise, they said, White House officials became upset because the disclosure wasn’t in keeping with the orchestrated rollout it had sought to control.
The White House has put the next steps in the playbook on hold while it assesses the North’s posture, officials say, though the administration hasn’t ruled out future shows of force. On Tuesday, Pentagon Press Secretary George Little said the U.S. wanted to lower the “temperature” on the peninsula…
[W]ithin the administration, some officials voiced concern about unintended consequences of provoking North Korea [by following an escalation "playbook"]. Some of these officials questioned the faith the White House and Pentagon placed in the intelligence agencies, which have a mixed record of predicting North Korean behavior.
However, few objections were raised at the highest levels during the meetings, according to participants—unlike in other Obama administration deliberations about using military force abroad, including Libya, Northwest Africa and Syria, that have been marked by protracted debates. President Barack Obama gave the green light to proceed with the playbook, these people said.
The unspoken risk: What’s the effect on Kim’s already unpredictable behavior now that he knows the U.S. is willing to tear up its “playbook” for fear of pushing him too far? Does that encourage him to be bolder? Or is this Journal story the White House’s way of making it easier for him to climb down? The WSJ’s sources are “U.S. officials” — important ones too, if they’re privy to what went on during meetings “at the highest levels.” Could be that Obama wanted this leaked as an olive branch to NK: The U.S. will eat shinola publicly for having been a little too aggressive towards Kim, whereupon Kim can declare moral victory and step back from the brink with South Korea. It’s a way to let him save face while retreating. “Look how the Americans tremble!” We’ll see if North Korea’s propaganda mill has any fun with it today. They sure have been having fun lately.
Exit question: How long before China instigates a coup to put someone in the North Korean military who’s more predictable in charge?
All good until you got the USS Jimmy Carter, an actual Seawolf attack submarine, the crew of which probably wouldn’t appreciate your joke at their expense.
Maybe you meant to USS BJ Clinton?
From the perspective of Korean-Chinese history, which more top & everyday Koreans know better than do most American’s know theirs, a China engineered coup in NK is a BIG double-edged sword for China. As much as there is no love for the dynasty in the north, from the view of most of the people in SK, it will take next to nothing for the charge of “foreign puppet” to stick on someone put on the NK throne by the new emperors in China. SK will not receive such a puppet with glee, no matter what policy changes it makes. Such a puppet might be able to change some things and some conditions in NK, but I would not look for vastly warming relations with the puppet to be the SK response.
This is a non-story. Every administration faced with a threatened confrontation sets up internal ground rules to avoid unwanted escalation.
The White House had a "playbook," agreed to by O, Hagel, and John Kerry, on how to rattle its saber at North Korea during the next crisis without rattling it so much that NK would get spooked and do something rash. E.g., first comes some B-52 flights over South Korea, then the B-2s make a cameo, then the F-22s, and so forth. Problem one: Kim's gone further in his bellicosity than U.S. analysts expected and now they’re unsure if they know where his personal red line is. Problem two: The deployment of two destroyers last weekend to the Pacific wasn’t part of the “playbook” and wasn’t supposed to be publicized. That was a bona fide strategic move, not a show of muscle-flexing designed for North Korean and international consumption. But then the news leaked and the Navy confirmed it, which turned the deployment into an inadvertent, potentially war-sparking audible.
In December 2011 the Obozo administration cancelled the Boeing YAL-1 Airborne Laser Project after its final successful test. This system, which was capable of destroying a ballistic missile in its boost phase, cost $5 billion during its 15 years of development. It now sits in the boneyard in Tucson. Sad.
Amazing how this s*** didn’t happen under Dubya, innit?
Your response seems wordy and seems to ramble and never answered the question one way or another.
If I can be blunt and to the point, if NK goes to war with us and SK, you can bet the rent, Communist China will totally support NK.
Ya heard it here first.
Dubya was too busy fighting decades long compassionate wars costing trillions in American treasure....Any war dealing with Communist China/NK would have scared him to death.
I didn’t know about that. What a travesty at this particular moment in history. Tragic.
0bama should send $10 million in currency to the "raging runt," five high priced hookers, and a Lamborghini. Done deal, crises solved...at least for a year.
5.56mm
The fallacy in the piece is the author assumes he knows what is happening.
I’m not looking for props, whatever that means... Fact is Red China is not your friend and they will side with NK if push comes to shove.
I’m really trying to imagine NK invading SK and Communist China siding with and supporting SK...I just don’t see it...Ever.
I also know that China would never support SK in a conflict with NK but I don't think they're stupid enough to actively participate this time despite having done so in the 1950s. At best they'd support NK with the UN and perhaps in the matter of logistics. Or they might just sit still, do nothing and see how it all plays out, while plotting actions that work to their best advantage.
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