For what it’s worth, I agree with you.
That said I’m not in the military nor intelligence so my opinion means absolutely zero.
But seriously. This only seems likely to get worse.
Any number of scenarios could play out. such as just a bluff to get more goodies like Dad and Grand Dad did (but he has to ramp it up because he is new, young, and facing off against a new South Korean (FEMALE!) president at that), to really launching something nasty and unannounced against Seoul or Tokyo, to trying to attack the US with an ICBM (difficult), EMP, or domestic terrorist with dirty bombs smuggled into the US and through elements of traitors on US soil from within the ranks of South Korean-Americans. My guess is a low level provocation such as shelling of one of the South’s outer islands near the Northern Line Limit, or a skirmish along the DMZ, but it is extremely risky. It might depend on what mood the kid is in, or if he had been sauced the night before or not. Hard to say. Good intelligence is hard to come by ferretted out from the DPRK. Or, he could on the other hand, go too far—in the assessment of the North Korean Council of Elders—and be assassinated, “traffic accident”, that kind of thing, in a raw power grab between DPRK elements who do not think he is a capable leader. Could be a fight between the KWP and the KPA in Pyongyang, or even between Generals, family members and what not. I say, watch what he commands his own populace to do, because he knows if he tries something provocative he is going to get a terrible bloody nose from the US in the form of utter destruction of Pyongyang. Of course, he could just go deep to ground in one of his bunkers carrying nothing about his civilian population (which our BLU-113 or GBU series bunker busters might get), what I am saying is nobody, not even the sharpest North Korean Specialist minds I think can say 100% for sure what is going on and what is in their minds up there, so nearly every possible scenario must be exhaustively and comprehensively war gamed out by our side and our allies in the region, mapped out in great detail, and constant readiness and training for total forward attack (defensive and offensive) if necessary. Needless to say all available intel capabilities need to be called into theatre and in place, and close communication and sharing of details with Seoul and Tokyo. We should also be spying very closely on Chinese intelligence, listening in, obtaining their own reports and assessments, and watching their own troop movements. That will also be bellweather and indicative. My biggest, repeat, my biggest regret over this whole developing situation is who is currently sitting in our White House. That is the great travesty and danger of the hour.