“I honestly expect it will be larger than even the CBO’s higher estimate, since the CBO rarely gets it right.”
Mr. Small Businessperson meets with the health insurance companies. Cost of providing employer paid health insurance will be $7000 per year per employee after the employee’s conribution. Cost of paying the penalty to Uncle Sam for not providing health insurance is $2000 per year per employee. Cost of providing health insurance or paying penalty for any employee working 29 or fewer hours per week is $0.
What will Mr. Small Businessman do?
The economics for Mr. Big Corporation are the same except he/she can also move jobs offshore and contract work. What will Mr. Big Corporation do?
Absolutely correct. You have laid out the scenario perfectly. But we already know this was never about healthcare. It was about securing votes from those easily swayed by emotional arguments while ignoring realities.