Skip to comments.Why Kim Jong-Un Will Probably Win
Posted on 04/08/2013 4:48:01 AM PDT by IbJensen
Kim Jong-Uns gambit to extract money to keep his dictatorship afloat is going to work. Despite it being pointed out many times since the crisis began that there was nothing much new in Kims creation of a crisis in order to force the big powers back to the negotiating table, the U.S. is eagerly looking to do exactly that.
The cancellation of a missile test here in the U.S. ostensibly to prevent Kim from getting the wrong idea about U.S. intentions might be considered prudent under the circumstances. Whether Kim is pretending to be crazy or actually is off his nut hardly matters when youre looking at someone who might take anything as a provocation and respond militarily.
But the administration has all but announced its capitulation to Kims belligerence, as Secretary of State John Kerry heads to Asia next week.
Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will visit Asia next week where he is expected to discuss potential diplomatic incentives for North Korea once it stops its threatening rhetoric, senior administration officials told CNN on condition of anonymity.
Secretary Kerry agrees that we have to have a robust deterrent because we really dont know what these guys will do, said one senior official, who was not authorized to speak on the issue.
But he also knows that the North Koreans need a diplomatic off-ramp and that they have to be able to see it.
A diplomatic off-ramp? In other words, a bribe.
The Christian Science Monitor fleshes this concept out:
After sending nuclear-capable B-52s to the skies and antimissile ships to the waters around the Korean Peninsula, as well as missile-defense batteries to Alaska and Guam, the Obama administration is now moving to ratchet down the tensions.
The aim of Secretary Kerrys Asia trip will be to reassure allies and partners that the US, after having taken necessary military precautions, is focused on finding the diplomatic steps both short-term and further into the future to address the nuclear-armed Norths belligerence.
While recent US actions have shored up the concerns of our allies and moved to protect the US from potential attack, now is the time for reinforcing as well the diplomatic and economic measures that will stifle North Korean behavior and force a reset on their part, says George Lopez, a former United Nations sanctions monitor on the North Korea case.
What would some of these diplomatic and economic measures be?
Kerry left Saturday for the Middle East and then for London before traveling to Seoul, Bejing and Tokyo later next week.
The shape of a possible eventual deal, the sources said, is likely to take the form of previous attempts at satisfying what the United States sees as North Koreas ultimate goal of survival, which could include security guarantees, a road map to a peace treaty and a lifting of sanctions.
North Korea wants all three of these elements as part of any potential agreement with the United States.
Its really old wine in a new bottle, one official said. We have 30 plus statements, offers and positions we have put on the table over the last several years.
Earlier this week, the United States attempted to reduce friction with Pyongyang by emphasizing a return to diplomacy, recognizing that its announcements of American military deployments in response to belligerent statements by North Korea may have contributed to escalating tensions between the two countries.
The U.S. is not matching their rhetoric, notes Joe Cirincione, a former adviser to President Barack Obama on nuclear issues who now serves as president of the Ploughshares Fund, which works against the spread of nuclear weapons. They are not pouring gasoline on the fire.
Cirincione argues North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be ready to calm the situation with the United States and South Korea, having achieved his goals of solidifying his position with the North Korean people and military and increasing his bargaining position with South Korea and the United States.
You are starting to see this tamp down and I suspect after a decent interval you might be able to restart talks directly with the North, he said.
Like a two year old who has thrown a tantrum and got his exhausted parents to given in, Kim will reap the benefits of his brinksmanship. The cave-in by the U.S. could also embolden the young man to go even farther next time, testing the limits of American appeasement with even more bellicosity and outrageous behavior.
The metaphor of Charlie Brown, the football, and Lucy comes to mind. Lucy, while seemingly crazy for doing the same thing over and over, makes a rational choice to pull the football back while Charlie Brown holds out hope that this time will be different. Despite severe reservations on his part, Charlie Brown always talks himself into playing the game with Lucy.
Would that U.S. policy makers refuse to play Kims game next time.
‘Have Obama give me a call and send lots of $$$’
But you know they will be rewarded. The liberal’s answer to any problem is to throw money at it and buy your way out.
Look for the administration to give them billions and, then, CNN and MSNBC will declare victory and shower accolades on our “savior”.
I have never seen such a lame bunch of ass-hats running the country in my lifetime(66 years). Backing off a missile test so we don’t piss off an enemy?
Unless we have an Eagle Eye event we are screwed any way you look at it !
When the US cancelled the missile test at Vandenberg, North Korea achieved something no other country has ever done. This will embolden them. Their current course is yielding big results.
“Kim Jong-Uns gambit to extract money to keep his dictatorship afloat is going to work.”......
Send him his funds in the form a a BIG BOMB! Cut his annual “welfare requests”.
As a nation, when your friends no longer trust you and your enemies no longer fear you, your collective tit is in the wringer.
The United States has her tit in a wringer. again.
One of the things few in the press consider is we, as the major part of the UN Korean Police Action, are still at war with the NORKS, we have a truce, no peace treaty. We treat it as a treaty, they treat it as a halt to shooting but continue threaten rekindling shooting because they know the UN will do nothing, not even send in the blue helmets if shooting starts up again. We unfortunately have about 30K military personnel still in Korea so are on the hook, more so with the jerk in the White House who would gladly turn them into pawns in his effort to capture the house in 14.
It was rather predictable in November, 2008. It was just a question of “when.”
Frankly....I wouldn’t waste the missile.
I think this is nothing more than a Jesse Jackson”ShakeDown”(but on a larger scale).He wants more food from us and fuel-oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If we had a real President, the Korean boy wonder would be dead, buried, and cremated. Kim Jong-Urn.
They should cut out the middle man(us) and just ask China for the billions. We are broke and that’s where the cash would come from anyway.
“What should happen is the decapitation of this regime. Even if we had a genuine American in the White Hous, we’re exhaused due to our Middle Eastern misadventures.”
We still have a bunch of cruise missiles somewhere, collecting dust! We still have submarines that are a lot more sophisticated than those of the NorK’s. Sink their navy in their ports. Flatten their launch sites.
Lastly, IMHO, it will be the Skor ROK’s that are chomping at the bit to go do what voodoo they do!
I believe that the NorK’s are the kid with the stick in the fence of the snarling pit-bull, who forgot that off the leash, they might climb the fence!
Apparently we’ve never had a real president...that family has been in power since 1948.
I beg to differ:
Before Obama, N. Korea did not have any nuclear potential; It had the backing of the Red Chinese and/or Soviet Russia (at varying times); We had an armistice.
Since Obama came to power, N. Korea has developed the bomb, lost pretty much any support from its ally, and cancelled the armistice. Yet Obama's only action is to cancel a missile test.
I didn’t realize this thread was only about Nukes
Are you implying that I had claimed that it was "only about nukes?"
Because I said nothing to indicate that.
Rather, I listed three different parameters (one of which concerned N. Korea's new-found nuclear potential) leading me to conclude that never have we had so spineless an administration.
The only dignified response to blackmail is violence.