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Nate Silver: With Popularity Fading at Home, Is Bobby Jindal the New Mitt Romney?
New York Times ^ | 04/10/2013 | Nate Silver

Posted on 04/10/2013 7:26:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Monday’s article on the nation’s least popular governors did not include Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, because he is not up for re-election in 2014. (Louisiana’s next gubernatorial election will be in 2015, and Mr. Jindal will not be eligible, having served two consecutive terms.) But recent surveys suggest that Mr. Jindal has become very unpopular in his home state amid a series of battles on fiscal policy. A March poll from Southern Media & Opinion Research put Mr. Jindal’s approval rating at just 38 percent, against 60 percent disapproval. His numbers had been similarly poor in a February survey by Public Policy Polling.

Some national political commentators are treating the news as being self-evidently injurious to Mr. Jindal’s chances of capturing the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Obviously, Mr. Jindal has plenty of time to turn around his image in Louisiana. But if he doesn’t, would Republicans really consider nominating someone who is so deeply unpopular among his own constituents?

Actually, you don’t have to go back very far to find a precedent for when Republicans did exactly that. Their nominee last year, Mitt Romney, was very unpopular among Massachusetts voters by the time he finished his single term as governor in 2006.

The chart below tracks Mr. Romney’s approval and favorability ratings during his term, based on data from PollingReport.com. Mr. Romney was reasonably popular throughout most of his tenure (as Mr. Jindal has been). But Mr. Romney numbers declined once he began to reposition himself as a candidate for national office (for instance, in gradually shifting his stance on abortion and contraception toward the right).

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: jindal; romney
Agree or disagree with Nate silver, his polling track record is superb.

He was THE MOST ACCURATE POLLSTER in 2012.

1 posted on 04/10/2013 7:26:08 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

2 posted on 04/10/2013 7:26:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Don’t agree/disagree with him.

I think this may be a pre-emptive strike, though....


3 posted on 04/10/2013 7:28:44 AM PDT by illiac (If we don't change directions soon, we'll get where we're going)
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To: SeekAndFind
I don't care who is most popular, I want to find who is the best choice for the next president.
Don't follow the majority, the majority is often wrong, especially when they follow poll results.

4 posted on 04/10/2013 7:30:22 AM PDT by BitWielder1 (Corporate Profits are better than Government Waste)
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To: SeekAndFind

Consider The Source!


5 posted on 04/10/2013 7:32:37 AM PDT by PoloSec ( Believe the Gospel: how that Christ died for our sins, was buried and rose again)
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To: SeekAndFind
I take *my* abysmal “poll numbers” here in the Gay State,the result of unpopular positions on issues large and small,as a badge of honor.If the day ever comes when folks like me are *popular* in what must certainly be considered the filthiest of our 57 states I’ll have to consider a trip to my basement,carrying a think,sturdy length of rope.
6 posted on 04/10/2013 7:33:15 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Leno Was Right,They *Are* Undocumented Democrats!)
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To: SeekAndFind

If there is a conservative presidential candidate, he should keep his platform limited to 10 key points, that are popular with Republicans and conservatives.

Think of it as a Contract With America, which when introduced was wildly popular.

The advantage of doing this is that it is simple and binary. Most people would understand it, and definitely appreciate its clarity.

It also says that the candidate “does not haggle”, and will not sell America’s birthright for a “mess of pottage”, like H.W. Bush and his “no new taxes” broken pledge.

So right now, everybody should think up a list of 10 “bullet points”, one short sentence in length, that would be their ideal conservative platform.

Importantly, it won’t include everything. But 10 important things that Republicans and conservatives truly want.

This is the way to win the election.


7 posted on 04/10/2013 7:33:51 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Best WoT news at rantburg.com)
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To: SeekAndFind

think,sturdy = thick,sturdy


8 posted on 04/10/2013 7:34:36 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Leno Was Right,They *Are* Undocumented Democrats!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Is Jindal a natural born citizen?


9 posted on 04/10/2013 7:37:13 AM PDT by ladyjane (For the first time in my life I am not proud of my country.)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
Think of it as a Contract With America,.....This is the way to win the election.

NEWT lost the election because money, evil and stupidity reigned. Courtesy of Rove/Romney and all it's ilk with their 'anyone but Newt' and the stupid weak-minded voters fell for it.

10 posted on 04/10/2013 7:45:49 AM PDT by presently no screen name
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To: ladyjane

“”Is Jindal a natural born citizen?”””

YOU ARE A RACIST!!!!!! /s


11 posted on 04/10/2013 7:46:08 AM PDT by shelterguy
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To: SeekAndFind

Jindal’s political career is probably over IMHO. He’s not Amish, he’s not Hispanic, and he’s not a Lesbian Feminist.


12 posted on 04/10/2013 7:46:20 AM PDT by Rich21IE
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To: Rich21IE

But doesn’t his minority ethnicity count for something?


13 posted on 04/10/2013 7:51:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: ladyjane

RE: Is Jindal a natural born citizen?

I knew this would be brought up somehow.

I expect this question/debate to be brought up with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz as well.


14 posted on 04/10/2013 7:52:09 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: ladyjane
"Is Jindal a natural born citizen?"

It depends on which definition you accept. He was certainly born here, but as I recall, neither of his parents had been granted citizenship yet at the time of the birth. So according to one view, he is. But according to another, he is not.

15 posted on 04/10/2013 7:52:48 AM PDT by Wonder Warthog
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To: SeekAndFind

Wrong type.


16 posted on 04/10/2013 8:00:42 AM PDT by Rich21IE
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To: Wonder Warthog; ladyjane

RE: Natural Born

In reality, we should be concerned with the original intent of the framers.

In reality, since Obama is now president and most people don’t give a d**m about it, Jindal should be eligible.

The sad fact is the “natural born” clause is now being ignored.


17 posted on 04/10/2013 8:03:40 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Rich21IE

RE: Wrong type.

Well, that leaves... Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Susanna Martinez and Tim Scott.

They’re all the right type.


18 posted on 04/10/2013 8:06:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Good grief. Yeah, Gov. Jindal is the ticket.


19 posted on 04/10/2013 8:14:41 AM PDT by RedHeeler
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To: SeekAndFind
"In reality, we should be concerned with the original intent of the framers.....the sad fact is the “natural born” clause is now being ignored."

Oh, I agree with you completely. I'm just pointing out the reality of the situation.

20 posted on 04/10/2013 8:17:31 AM PDT by Wonder Warthog
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To: SeekAndFind; ladyjane

I expect this question/debate to be brought up with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz as well.

As it should be. Either the Constitution matters, or it doesn't. We who feel it does should stand firm on it and not bend in the wind when it suits us (like the RINO's do). Limp wristed Supreme Court Justices who just can't bring themselves to address Constitutional matters should be replaced, not appeased.


21 posted on 04/10/2013 8:18:27 AM PDT by so_real ( "The Congress of the United States recommends and approves the Holy Bible for use in all schools.")
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To: SeekAndFind

Nate Silver DOESN’T POLL ANYBODY. He’s a statistician and analyst who makes predictions based on data from others, including polling by major polling companies.


22 posted on 04/10/2013 8:25:32 AM PDT by SoCal Pubbie
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To: BitWielder1

LOL

So true. Recall the number of 'frontrunners' in 2012. Nearly every 2-4 weeks, it was a new one. And TOO many on FR jumped on the popularity bandwagons, disregarding any qualifications and/or true potential at actually winning the general election.

The sad thing is that the 2012 line up was even worse than the 2008 starting gate.

Regrettably, many of those 'frontrunners' are hinting at 2016. They couldn't even beat the guy who couldn't beat the guy who couldn't beat Obama in 2008. So, in 2016 they will be the ones who couldn't beat the buy who couldn't beat Obama in 2012.

Nearly a dozen have already hinted on 2016, and not a one of them sends a thrill up my leg. Already, 2016 is looking like another massive GOP disaster, a throwaway to the Dems.
23 posted on 04/10/2013 8:27:06 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: SeekAndFind

I agree...and hope he puts Ras’ in his dust!!


24 posted on 04/10/2013 8:38:13 AM PDT by stevecmd
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To: ladyjane

NO.


25 posted on 04/10/2013 8:41:58 AM PDT by TNoldman (AN AMERICAN FOR A MUSLIM/BHO FREE AMERICA.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Hmmmm, my hunch is they’ll be disabled by the MSM as sell-outs or not “really” Hispanic or as being likened to Uncle Toms.

Thems what control the MSM and National Propaganda Radio control all.


26 posted on 04/12/2013 7:11:39 AM PDT by Rich21IE
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