Skip to comments.Retail sales unexpectedly fall in March
Posted on 04/12/2013 6:09:28 AM PDT by tobyhill
Retail sales contracted in March for the second time in three months, a sign the American economy may have stumbled at the end of the first quarter.
Retail sales fell 0.4 percent during the month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. That was below analysts' expectations that sales would be flat.
Readings for retail sales have been volatile so far this year, making it difficult to know whether the weakness in March was due to a tax hike that went into effect at the start of the year or to temporary factors related to the weather.
Retail sales advanced 1 percent in February, according to revised readings from the government.
Stripping out cars, gasoline and building materials, sales fell 0.2 percent in March. This core measure corresponds closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. The government revised lower past core retail sales figures to show a 0.3 percent gain in February and flat sales in January.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
It’s always “unexpectedly.” Will they ever admit that they’re not good at predicting?
It’s the same with all liberals.
Their policies are SUPPOSED to work,
and when they invariably fail, it’s always “unexpected”.
I been doing my part to keep the economy up. Everyday, I hit WalMart at 6:45AM to be there to get whatever new ammo came in the night before. Today, 200 rds 45 ACP, and 40 rds 7.62X39, yesterday, 200 rds 45ACP and 100 rds 9mm, day before that 60 rds of 5.56 ball ammo, day before that 60 rds of Tula 223 ammo....get there early, and often.
“Unexpected” is the hazard of believing one’s own propaganda about a “recovery”.
The MSM slipped and blamed the cold weather for the decline in sales.
Not just bad at predicting, but reality is almost always worse than they predicted. It's like a Cubs' fan once again predicting a World Series victory this year.
Only for those who don’t visit stores in the flyover country. No doubt the Fifth Avenue shops in Manhattan and stores inside the beltway in the Washington area are bustling.
Another in a string of downside macro datapoints... another indication we are entering into the same “spring slowdown” pattern we have seen the last 3 years.
As a professional forecaster I learned early on that you will always miss every forecast you make. It's just the nature of the job dealing with so many unknown and uncontrollable variables. The key is to try and minimize the misses and pick up the longer term trends.
The MSM slipped and blamed the cold weather for the decline in sales.”
Cold weather in January and February. How can that be? Events such as winter weather in the winter just make predicting anything so difficult.
Economists that work in the private sector are? Who knew?
The “con” in Obamaconomy should’ve been highlighted in red.
Last winter was exceptionally mild which led to "unexpected" upside in 1Q. This year was significantly colder than was forecast. Weather has a significant impact on economic activity. Listen to any earnings call by FDX, UPS, any of the TL or LTL companies and you will hear it mentioned.
I’m trying to do my part, too. But when I went to Wal*Mart on my lunch break one day this week, the ammo shelves (six feet wide) were bare, except for some .270 Rem and a 20-round box or two of cheap Russian steel cased .223. I’ve got a .270 Browning so I supplemented my stock, but everything else was gone, and I was told that whatever came in that morning was gone by 8am. Thanks, Obama.
I was referring to the fact the Global Warming worshiping MSM noticed it was cold.
Like I said, EARLY! Lunchtime is for those that get to see empty shelves. The stuff I get is gone before 7:15 AM....(they start selling at 7:00AM)
I guess I meant those who control the printed/broadcast news, but who knew?
I know - but I can’t do that on working days. On the weekends though, I sometimes station myself outside before the local sport shop’s doors open, along with a small crowd of others. They usually have fresh .45, 22LR and 9mm... and... it’s gone. It is unbelievable what’s happening to this country.
The print/broadcast news don’t make the forecasts...
Retail Sales decline 0.4% in March
On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.8% from March 2012. From the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $418.3 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the previous month, but 2.8 percent above March 2012. ... The January to February 2013 percent change was revised from +1.1 percent to +1.0 percent (±0.2%).
Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.
Sales for January were revised down too.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 26.2% from the bottom, and now 11.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
Retail sales ex-autos decreased 0.4%. Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.2%.
Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 23.5% from the bottom, and now 10.4% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).
Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 3.3% on a YoY basis (2.8% for all retail sales).
This was below the consensus forecast of no change in retail sales. Lower gasoline prices subtracted from retail sales - after boosting sales in February.
Upon reading this a second time I would certainly agree that their reporting of it is biased. No argument from me there.
It's not about predicting poorly, it's about spin. Odd that we never heard the word 'unexpected' associated with bad economic news during the Bush administration.
That's impossible! Al Gore told us the polar bears are drowning because of global warming!
What would sales be if you excluded ammo?
Probably lower.....I know I’ve been pushing it hard on spending for ammo. I try to make sure it’s not for inflated prices so I don’t buy from CTD or other places that get up to 3-4 times what the ammo is worth...it’s why I go to WM...they haven’t raised prices except for what ammo mfrs pass on.....a month ago there I got 420 rds in a steel ammo can of XM855LC SS109 penetrator ammo for $175....CTD was selling that for over a dollar a round.
Same at the Wal-Mart here.
Read my post #27