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China May Not Overtake America This Century After All
The Telegraph ^ | May 8, 2013 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Posted on 05/08/2013 12:45:14 PM PDT by Parmenio

Doubts are growing about whether China can pass the US to become the world's biggest economy this century amid warnings that the country’s 30-year miracle is nearing exhaustion.

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Extended News; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: china; evanspritchard; india
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We live in interesting times.
1 posted on 05/08/2013 12:45:14 PM PDT by Parmenio
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To: Parmenio

Well, it won’t be because our government didn’t try.


2 posted on 05/08/2013 12:46:20 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: Parmenio

The near-future belongs to India.


3 posted on 05/08/2013 12:46:21 PM PDT by warchild9
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To: Parmenio

The Chicoms are probably even worse than us when it comes to spending and manipulating their markets. At least the United States isn’t building huge ghost cities just to claim they’re in a state of economic growth because they’re building so much.


4 posted on 05/08/2013 12:49:00 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans
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To: warchild9

“The near-future belongs to India.”

You do know that China sent a platoon of troops into Indian territory in/near the Himalayas, right? Situation described as “tense.”


5 posted on 05/08/2013 12:50:04 PM PDT by Frank Sheed (The injustice of trendiness is nearly dualistic in its isomorphism.)
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To: Parmenio

I use products in Walmart to judge China’s economic growth and they appear to be doing quite well.

If we don’t grow some balls and put up some import tariffs, they will pass us going up while we are going down.


6 posted on 05/08/2013 12:50:38 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Parmenio

I use products in Walmart to judge China’s economic growth and they appear to be doing quite well.

If we don’t grow some balls and put up some import tariffs, they will pass us going up while we are going down.


7 posted on 05/08/2013 12:50:39 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Parmenio

In 20 years, half the people in China will be over 60. That can’t be good.


8 posted on 05/08/2013 12:52:04 PM PDT by proxy_user
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To: Parmenio

China is to busy trying to keep bears on bikes from eating monkeys.


9 posted on 05/08/2013 12:53:29 PM PDT by mardi59 (IMPEACH OBAMA NOW!!!!!)
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To: Parmenio

If China proceeds as it has to undermine the dollar as the world reserve currency, and then refuses to buy our debt, the will shrink their economy, but they will devastate ours. It is just a matter of who is biggest by who takes the smaller hit.


10 posted on 05/08/2013 12:54:32 PM PDT by trubolotta
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To: Parmenio

They kill all the girls.

Demography is destiny.


11 posted on 05/08/2013 12:54:52 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (All observant Muslims want to kill you. If they don't, they are not really Muslims.)
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To: proxy_user

And how many under 60 will be unmarried men?


12 posted on 05/08/2013 12:55:06 PM PDT by Lou Budvis
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To: Parmenio
Problem is, their one-child policy has resulted in 100,000,000 more men than women.

IOW, there are 100,000,000 pissed-off Chinamen looking for something meaningful to do.

13 posted on 05/08/2013 12:55:31 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Islam is a religion of peace, and Moslems reserve the right to detonate anyone who says otherwise.)
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To: Parmenio

This is a very good article. It doesn’t have the irrational cheerleading that most of them do. There is some degree of trouble on the horizon for China.


14 posted on 05/08/2013 12:57:03 PM PDT by buffaloguy
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To: Parmenio
"...world's biggest economy?" That's pretty funny. Our economy is only big relative to China's because of the debt insanity. China already surpassed us in manufacturing. Evans-Pritchard already has a reputation for being a radical socialist (repeatedly bleeding in slippery speech for more loans to Greece, Italy and the like by complaining about the creditor nations for those two).


15 posted on 05/08/2013 12:57:27 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the planet.)
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To: Parmenio
That is exactly what was said in Europe about the U.S. in the 1930’s
16 posted on 05/08/2013 1:00:18 PM PDT by MCF
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To: Parmenio
A lot depends on how America is run in the future.

As a smart guy said on CNBC a few years ago:

China has central planning by mathematicians, scientists, and engineers, and America has central planning by lawyers.

Neither is good, but by definition, they win.

17 posted on 05/08/2013 1:01:18 PM PDT by nascarnation (Baraq's economic policy: trickle up poverty)
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To: Parmenio

Every couple of weeks there is an article how China is about to implode, China is bankrupt, China’s wages are rising and they won’t be the offshore threat they currently are, and now China is exhausted.

How much is China paying these reporters?


18 posted on 05/08/2013 1:01:39 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Parmenio

They are net importers of important foods like
grain.

Not gonna win.


19 posted on 05/08/2013 1:02:20 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: Parmenio

Give hussein a third term and see what happens.


20 posted on 05/08/2013 1:03:35 PM PDT by bgill (The problem is...no one is watching the Watch List!)
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To: nascarnation
China has massive excess labor that's very cheap. And they are taxes heavily to keep the labor rate down and to funnel the profits to the government. Not to worry, the government owned banks keep the investment flowing to steal more industries.

America lost the will to protect it's industries back in the 1970's. And if we are going to survive, we need to get that will back.

21 posted on 05/08/2013 1:03:43 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: proxy_user
In 20 years, half the people in China will be over 60. That can’t be good.

Certainly not if the leadership's intent is to order them to march over the Himalayas and take India.


22 posted on 05/08/2013 1:05:26 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Parmenio

They’ve had wage inflation 10-14% per year for many years


23 posted on 05/08/2013 1:10:52 PM PDT by Mount Athos (A Giant luxury mega-mansion for Gore, a Government Green EcoShack made of poo for you)
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To: Frank Sheed

Nothing will come of that. There will never be a major war between China and anyone, let alone India.

There’s too much money to be made off one another.

The simple rule of geopolitics is...money rules.

Unless Iran is involved. Shiites live in a fairytale land all their own.


24 posted on 05/08/2013 1:14:54 PM PDT by warchild9
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To: Buckeye McFrog

This is where a realpolitik president is needed to nudge China by sending a message....If you start a war with India on your western border then we shall dispose of our North Korean irritants on your Eastern border and support our Asian friends’ claims in the South China sea. China would have to consider whether it could wage multi directional conflicts from the west south and East...(and they are not that trusting of their northern neighbors as well)


25 posted on 05/08/2013 1:19:06 PM PDT by mdmathis6 (Rest assured, Mankind is loved....both completely and severely!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

That can make for busy hands.


26 posted on 05/08/2013 1:22:32 PM PDT by Sequoyah101
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27 posted on 05/08/2013 1:36:40 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (My faith and politics cannot be separated)
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To: Parmenio; All
Image and video hosting by TinyPic

We already owe them BILLION$ if not TRILLION$ of dollars...one of the Assclown's first trips overseas (or at least that of his SecTreas, the Turbo Tax Cheat Timmy) was to go and beg China to keep funding our debt.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Anyone else remember this commercial "They work for us" from a couple years ago??

28 posted on 05/08/2013 1:38:01 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Actually, the percentage of total U.S. Treasury debt that China owns has declined significantly in recent years. Did you read the article?


29 posted on 05/08/2013 1:52:13 PM PDT by Parmenio
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To: Parmenio

And there’s no reason for you to swear at me.


30 posted on 05/08/2013 1:52:46 PM PDT by Parmenio
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To: Parmenio
I guess The Telegraph cannot see from their perch in London that the only growth industries here in the US are EBT cards,SSDI checks and the annexation of Mexico as our 51st state.
31 posted on 05/08/2013 1:58:43 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Leno Was Right,They *Are* Undocumented Democrats!)
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To: Gay State Conservative

The article focuses on the problems China faces, not the U.S.


32 posted on 05/08/2013 2:01:37 PM PDT by Parmenio
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To: Parmenio

China’s tied to America like a lifeboat tied to a sinking ship - when we go down, we pull them down with us.


33 posted on 05/08/2013 2:03:27 PM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: Parmenio
The article focuses on the problems China faces, not the U.S.

So the headline of the story is meaningless,rendering it unworthy of a response?

34 posted on 05/08/2013 2:04:34 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Leno Was Right,They *Are* Undocumented Democrats!)
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To: Gay State Conservative

Did you bother reading the article, or did you just read the title?


35 posted on 05/08/2013 2:12:34 PM PDT by Parmenio
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

Think Houston 1980

Then rewrite


36 posted on 05/08/2013 2:14:14 PM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 .....History is a process, not an event)
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

I agree, and think this is what the pro-China crowd is missing.


37 posted on 05/08/2013 2:17:22 PM PDT by Sam Gamgee (May God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't. - Patton)
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To: Parmenio

The Chinese will not appeal to war with us as long as they can beat us by economic means. However, if true that they cannot beat us by economic means....it means that military action against us by the Chinese becomes more probable.

Interesting times indeed!


38 posted on 05/08/2013 2:31:10 PM PDT by Sola Veritas (Trying to speak truth - not always with the best grammar or spelling)
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To: MrB
China’s tied to America like a lifeboat tied to a sinking ship - when we go down, we pull them down with us.

I also believe this is so. However, there are unseen forces at work behind the scenes. Hidden power organizations pulling levers of power in nation-states, manipulating world events. Sounds like comic-book fiction, yes, but how else to explain the madness in what is evolving on the world stage? Seems like some are tearing down our nation, and they don't care if China and other nations take a fall as well. The U.S.A. (the old U.S.A.) is the world's best hope for avoiding anarchy and chaos, if wise conservatives can reclaim it. We live in interesting times.

39 posted on 05/08/2013 2:31:52 PM PDT by roadcat
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To: warchild9

Nope. India is riven by ethnic and religious divisions, and economic progress is weakened by her corrupt, incompetent, and deeply entrenched bureaucracy. In the long run, India may do better than China because of India’s traditions of democracy and rule of law, the lack of which limits China’s prospects for stability and full modernization.


40 posted on 05/08/2013 3:16:58 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: Rockingham

Indians are hungry and ambitious, and their economy is based on gold, not computer farts. They recognize their problems, and are trying to deal with them (unlike Americans, who are worried about football).

I deal with Indians all the time, and they’re in the process of eating our lunch.

/the same 1%’ers who prey on us also feed off the Chinese.


41 posted on 05/08/2013 3:20:10 PM PDT by warchild9
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To: Uncle Miltie

“They kill all the girls. Demography is destiny.”

Yep, the ratio for teens twenty something’s is 80 girls per 100 boys. Obviously, the sons of the rich and well connected (communist party) will get the chicks. The poor which is the majority of the population will get the hand. I’m kinda proud of this one, lol :)


42 posted on 05/08/2013 3:44:18 PM PDT by snoringbear (E.oGovernment is the Pimp,)
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To: Jim Robinson
Well said.

I will expand. All the US must do to be the preeminent power for decades to come is to allow its citizens to be free. Elsewhere it was posted that they have central planning by scientist, engineers,..etc. and we have central planning by lawyers. True enough but that only makes the case against central planning not having better central planners.

Everyone who wants tariffs, industrial policies, manufacturing subsidies, export controls, etc. is helping our bureaucrats engage in central planning.

Let us free our energy producers, lets unshackle our manufacturer’s, let us allow our people to be properly educated, let us quit taxing income and wealth into oblivion, and then let us worry about the flyspeck that would be Communist China.

43 posted on 05/08/2013 3:51:05 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: Parmenio

“Actually, the percentage of total U.S. Treasury debt that China owns has declined significantly in recent years. Did you read the article?”

We have screwed up our economy so bad that the Chinese do not want our debt and the Mexicans will not come here for work. So now we just print money and give it to the Mexicans for free.

And we think China is a threat?


44 posted on 05/08/2013 4:07:55 PM PDT by FreedomNotSafety
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To: Parmenio
Even if China's economy [GDP which isn't really the economy but that's for a different thread] became the same size as ours, the Chinese would still be only 1/4 as rich.

Our population is some 300 million -- theirs 1.2 billion. Nonetheless, the article may well be right. We had 125 years or so before the government began to seriously intervene in our economic lives.

The Chinese started out that way and it can only take them so far.

45 posted on 05/08/2013 4:21:26 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Don't try to explain yourself to liberals; you're not the jackass-whisperer.)
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To: Parmenio

This propaganda about China surpassing the US is pure crap.

The ChiComm apes can’t even anneal a bolt or screw correctly. Their steel is crap. You can’t become a world power without understanding steel. The ancient Romans understood steel and forged the best steel swords for their legions. That’s one reason why they conquered their known world.

The Pakistani smittys living in the back hills with goats and cooking with coal or wood make better steel knives than the Chicomms.

The ChiComm drawer glides are made from cheap white metal. The bearing weight of the Chicomm drawerglides is 25 pounds. American drawerglides are rated at 75 to 125 pounds.

The ChiComm apes haven’t evolved sufficiently to overtake America. They don’t understand steel.


46 posted on 05/08/2013 4:43:58 PM PDT by sergeantdave (No, I don't have links for everything I post)
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To: warchild9

You are dealing with Indians, I take it, not with India. There are several hundred million Indians who are within the fold of modern India and who aspire to First World standards of life. Yet the country as a whole has profound structural problems that seem likely to persist and to impede development of the country as a whole for decades to come.


47 posted on 05/08/2013 4:55:34 PM PDT by Rockingham
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To: sergeantdave

I agree. I used to work as a product development manager for a company that designed products and had them manufactured in China. Some of the steel we got from our Chinese sources was junk. In fact, we were so dissatisfied with one set of prototypes that we went out and found a U.S. manufacturer to private label for us. The quality of the steel was better, and the workmanship was excellent, because they used automated machines, not coolie labor. The amazing thing was that the cost from the U.S. manufacturer was lower than the Chinese.


48 posted on 05/08/2013 5:11:25 PM PDT by Parmenio
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To: Parmenio

Contrary to the butt kissing of Communist China by the Free Trader Commies....Communist China is still Communist....with Central government ...central planning....a politburo.....and a large government infrastructure

Outside of a few McDonalds and some tall buildings....its still Communist

Communism never works...even when Free Trader liberals suubsidises it


49 posted on 05/08/2013 5:24:08 PM PDT by SeminoleCounty (GOP - Greenlighting Obama's Programs)
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To: Parmenio

Thanks for voicing your experience. I’m just a schmuck operating from his backyard shop. I HATE! HATE! HATE! Chicomm steel. ChiComm bolt heads breaking off on engines drives me up the wall. Phillips screw slots rounding out because they can’t take a DeWalt cordless 9w drill torque makes me fantasize about murdering ChiComm apes.

That’s just me. Others may have a different experience.

Cheers, buddy.


50 posted on 05/08/2013 5:39:42 PM PDT by sergeantdave (No, I don't have links for everything I post)
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