This is not a “breakout” of a new condition, this is THE LEBANON CONDITION
- proportional, fixed or adjustable, sectarian distribution of “democratic” power by formula does not get rid of sectarian strife, it insures it will continue, as demographics are always, over time, adjusting the reality of the proportionality & distribution of each sectarian confession; making for a “solution” that does not remain satisfying to all concerned.
The original “recipe” for Lebanon did not prevent the constant recurrence of civil strife and civil war there.
Yes there are certain reasons at play this moment.
In 10-20 years there are likely to be other reasons.
The only thing that might “cure” it would be a political mandate that required all political parties to have members and leaders from all of Lebanon’s sectarian groups.
My first year Arabic teacher (Syrian Christian), back when their civil war was young and bushy-tailed, told me that when she lived in Lebanon, it was virtually crime free and peaceful. If there was so much as a purse-snatching in Beirut it was a scandal, and neighbors would be talking about it for months.
What changed it? Black October. After the Palis tried to unseat King Hussein, he chased the PLO out of Jordan and into Lebanon, where they disrupted civil society and set the different ethnicities at each other’s throats, just around the time I was in High School taking first year Arabic from Mrs. Shmelko.