I live in Fairfax County, the largest county in the state. In 2004, Kerry won FC, the first time a Presidential candidate did that since 1964. In 2008 Obama won by 110,000 votes and in 2012 by 90,000--mainly due to a huge effort by us to get out the GOP vote. This effort extended throughout the state yet Obama won handily. 30% of the population of FC is foreign born and those numbers continue to increase. Demography is destiny.
One third of the votes in the state are in NoVA. It is the fastest growing part of the state thanks to the honeypot of the federal government and crony capitalism. It will play a bigger and bigger role in statewide elections just like Cleveland, Detroit, and Philadelphia.
I understand about all of that, and I understand that the GOTV apparatus is impressive. I understand it’s tight. But 08 and 12 are not relevant because Obama’s emotional tie to the voter is off the table. 09 and 10 happened AFTER 08. Obama also got less votes, and a full 2% lower vote total in 2012 in Virginia than he got in Virginia in 08.
For all of the demographics and growth in Northern Va and for all of their GOTV, they have polled worse in 09,10 and 12 than they did in 08, and 2013’s proper analogy is 09.