I understand about all of that, and I understand that the GOTV apparatus is impressive. I understand it’s tight. But 08 and 12 are not relevant because Obama’s emotional tie to the voter is off the table. 09 and 10 happened AFTER 08. Obama also got less votes, and a full 2% lower vote total in 2012 in Virginia than he got in Virginia in 08.
For all of the demographics and growth in Northern Va and for all of their GOTV, they have polled worse in 09,10 and 12 than they did in 08, and 2013’s proper analogy is 09.
We put an incredible effort into GOTV in 2012--more than 10 times the number of door knocks and contacts. Despite a failed Obama presidency, Obama defied the laws of political gravity and won easily in VA and nationwide.
In VA Obama received 12,000 more votes in 2012 than 2008 and Romney almost a 100,000 more votes than McCain and still lost by 150,000 votes.
Obama also got less votes, and a full 2% lower vote total in 2012 in Virginia than he got in Virginia in 08.