Skip to comments.2014 Gubernatorial Races: An Early Take - Part 5 [Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio]
Posted on 06/16/2013 7:49:50 AM PDT by justiceseeker93
If ever there was a region where incumbent Republican governors can experience the great GOP gubernatorial apocalypse, it is the upper Midwest. Three of the races involve Republican incumbents who rode the Republican wave of 2010 into office. They are Rick Snyder in Michigan, John Kasich in Ohio and Scott Walker in Wisconsin. That potential loss of three Governors offices may be mitigated by a Pat Quinn Democratic loss in Illinois. The problem is that Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin are less red than Illinois is certainly blue.
(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...
It's one of an eight part series on the 2014 governor races by the same author on Red State. Each part covers a different region of the country.
I hope this author is aware that massive Democrat election fraud and cheating is something that has to counteracted in at least some of these states. Along those lines, and looking ahead to the 2016 presidential elections, it's of critical importance that the GOP win (or retain) as many Secretary of State positions as possible as one weapon against fraud and cheating.
The DNC/OFA has built a massive data complex using personal info on ALL citizens. How do Repubs overcome this?
The Dems do not have to run against the stigma of a recall election in Wisconsin this time. And they will not run a lightweight like Tom Barrett again. The election of 2014 is going to be a tight wire, closer than the 2010 or 2012 recall elections were.
I live in the People's Socialist Hell-Hole named Illinois. Not sure where Red State got their approval numbers for Quinn, but the polls I've seen have Quinn under 20% approval.
In fact, once Lisa Madigan gets in the race (as I think she will) Quinn's toast from the Democrat side. Lisa's daddy Mike Madigan (Speaker of the Illinois House) has had an iron fist grip on Illinois politics for the last 30+ years now. If Daddy's Girl Lisa runs - she wins. Period. It'll be a pure machine politics win, the votes in this state won't matter.
Bill Daley (brother of former mayor Richard Daley) has tossed his hat in the ring, but has also telegraphed that if Lisa Madigan gets in, he's bowing out. If Madigan stays out of the race, Bill Daley will be the de facto Democrat Candidate.
While there may be other Democrat candidates, I don't see them as "serious" candidates by any stretch, whether Lisa Madigan gets in the race or not. Either Madigan or Daley can easily bump that milquetoast piece of crap Quinn off the ticket. Plenty of people in this state (Democrat and Republican alike) are still MAD AS HELL at Quinn's doubling the State Income Tax and the runaway property taxes here in Illinois. No way Quinn survives on the Democrat side.
On the Republican Side - frankly it doesn't matter who runs. The next Governor of this state will either be Daddy's Girl Lisa Madigan, or Bill Daley.
But what the heck, here's who the two announced, top candidates are on the Republican (read that RINO) side.
First is State Treasurer Dan Rutherford. Rutherford is part of the GOP-E machine here in Illinois. His views on abortion and gun control are not well known to the public. According to a published but not widely seen interview with NBC-5 in Chicago Rutherford says he supports Conceal-Carry in Illinois and is as "pro-life as they come."
On other social issues such as "gay marriage" Rutherford says the following: "We as Republicans should not allow the social issues to define a good Republican from a bad Republican, I mean it. There are a lot of good Republicans that aren't pro-life. There are a lot of good Republicans that don't support the idea of conceal carry. You know what? That doesn't make 'em a bad Republican.
That immediately takes Rutherford out of consideration in my view, no way I can vote for the guy. While it's true there are many so-called Republican's in this state that don't support the Pro-Life movement or support Conceal-Carry, we out here in the grass-roots call them DEMOCRATS. That's what they should change their party to!
Then there's businessman Bruce Rauner. Rauner is thus far focusing his campaign on how bad Illinois' finances are, driving the need to reform the bankrupt pension system in this state, and improve the business climate which is driving small to medium sized business' out of the state. Other businesses such as Caterpillar, Motorola and others have announced shut-downs in Illinois or moving expanded manufacturing facilities (Caterpillar) out of state rather than adding capacity in Illinois.
Rauner's positions on social issues (abortion, gun control, "gay marriage") haven't been well defined or documented that I can find, putting Rauner in the "need more information" category.
If there are any other serious Republican contenders in Illinois, I don't know them. There's been some speculation that Judy Baar-Topinka (state Comptroller) may run, I don't view her as a serious candidate. She's run before against Blagojevich (now in Federal Prison in Colorado) and lost handily.
Likewise Kirk Dillard came in second in the Republican Governor's primary back in 2012 in a hard fought battle, problem with Dillard is he won't way that he will not raise taxes. To me, that puts him in the "HELL NO!" category.
In Summary: In this complete HELL-HOLE called Illinois, it doesn't matter who runs on the Republican side in the upcoming Gubernatorial race. The next Democrat Gubernatorial Primary winner will be the next Governor.
God help us all.
Why has Illinois turned from a swing state into such an overwhelming 'Rat state in last few decades?
Illinois is a red state, except for Cook Co. and a small area in southern Illinois. The rest of the state can’t out vote Chicago area. I heard a couple of politicians from downstate were going to introduce a bill to make Chicago area its own state. I’d love that!!
See post #8. Chitcago as a 'sanctuary city' attracting illegal criminal aliens, plus being the home of all the government cheese eating welfare rats means that this core Democrat constituency far outnumbers the rest of the state, meaning "as Chitcago goes, so goes the state."
Illinois outside of Chitgago, Champaign and East St. Louis is a predominantly red state. If we could just get rid of those three cancers this state would be much better off.
I live near Chicago. Who do you think will win the IL GOP governor primary? I think that Treasurer Rutherford will win, since he’s held a statewide office, like Jim Edgar & George Ryan.
The WI democrats did not nominate anyone at their convention to run against walker because feingold and kind refused to run. Tom Barret would be considered a super heavy weight compared to the garbage they’ll run.
The dems here in WI will be lucky to lose by the margain of the last two attempts against walker
Thumbnail sketch of state of 2014 Midwestern Gubenatorial races
FReep mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.
I don't think it matters who wins the IL Republican Primary.
IMO, for any Republican to have an ice cube's chance in hell at winning the Gubernatorial race, it has to be backlash against either the Madigan machine or the Daley machine.
Part of me thinks that most folks in this state would be adamantly against a Madigan in the Governor's mansion that's a puppet for big daddy Mike in the State house, but you know as well as I do people in this state are just dumb as hell ........
Good overall take. Thanks for the ping.
It will be interesting to see how the Detroit bankruptcy and the impact of Obamacare on unions will play in MI. Snyder has next to nothing to do with those two developments.
I wouldn’t put it past Democrats/unions to gin up unrest in urban areas which would require a response by Snyder. Then they could nail Snyder for being anti-union or racist.
Cook County is red, bright commie Marxist-Obamaist red. Like the flag of Red China. But we wouldn’t want to associate democrats with the color of socialism so it’s great our side is playing along with a blog called “Red State”.
That puke election thief Quinn is super duper unpopular which is why he probably won’t be renominated.
If her royal highness Lisa Madigan (who is inexplicably super popular) runs we probably have no chance.
If she’s not interested in primaring Quinn, Bill Daley is. Vomit.
The jerkass in MN isn’t popular either but he leads his nobody opponents.
So does that freak, Franken.
Has anyone even announced against Frakenberry?
Jeff Johnson, one of the 2 announced candidates against Dayton may not be much but at least he’s won elective office.
That state needs some recruitment, badly.
I’d also love to see Chip Craavak rematch Nolan.
“Jeff Johnson—the name you know.”
I was waiting for you to mention that. :-P
Craavak should have a rematch with Nolan, whose only purpose seems to be to jack up his own pay as much as possible.
That Republican = red, 'Rat = blue electoral map meme was a creation of the MSM standardized in the Bush - Gore presidential race in 2000. Before then, each analyst used whatever colors he wished to show an electoral map.
You're right, though. As with so many other things, only the GOP grassroots objects to that coloring system (I've seen or heard the objection to Marxist- socialist red many times) while the elites go along with it, even embrace it. So it's not likely to change anytime soon, unfortunately.
Fieldmarshaldj and I, amongst others, have complained about this for years. Erickson’s blog has always ticked me off.
Most people don’t care I guess but it turns my face RED when freepers unaware or uncaring go along with it. One guy even gave me an impassioned defense of the color red whist dissing the color blue, nevermind decades of international political history. LOL. I prefer Coke to Pepsi but come on.
I never knew it to be anything but Republican-blue; Democrat-red before the Orwellian newspeak Election Night 2000 lunacy. Kenneth Martis’s definitive works on the Congressional Atlas was testament to that, as was Dave Leip’s online website. I have been making my own election maps for well over 2 decades (before I ever saw Martis’s works, which predated mine) and it remains historically correct. Republicans should refuse to use the historically and ideologically incorrect colors and I frequently chide people on FR that ought to know better and how truly absurd they sound when they call a (Conservative) GOP state “Red.” I find it repugnant.
I’d never heard of the bastard before he ran, a Congressman from a different district in the damn 70’s (though I guess his home base is now in the 8th). He served 3 terms so he’s got his full pension, I guess he needed that salary back too.
The district continues to trend our way, Romney got 46%. If it can turn out Oberstar after a million terms it can turn out Nolan.
FWIW, Kasich in OH has been pretty good, and I didn’t think he would be. He did a pretty good balancing act with the unions. He got the finances in order. He is the friend of bringing manufacturing back. The thing he does that Romney didn’t is he talks to and negotiates with mayor Frank Jackson of Cleveland.
The district is becoming increasingly weighted toward its southern part (I live in CD8). That is the more conservative part of the district, which is needed to offset Duluth and the Iron Range. There was enough gerrymandering of CD8 in the last redistricting to siphon Nolan into office, where he has done exactly and precisely nothing of value.
They'll be flattered by the "qualified US citizens" part. Think abour it. Has Obama EVER said that about the majority of black US citizens?
I think you have history a little out of order. The Dems ran Barrett against Walker for Governor. Walker won. THEN, the Dems launched the recall and ran Barrett against Walker again. Walker won by a larger margin during the recall election.
So, the only time the Dems have had to run "against the stigma of a recall election" was during the recall election itself.
That immediately takes Rutherford out of consideration in my view, no way I can vote for the guy. While it's true there are many so-called Republican's in this state that don't support the Pro-Life movement or support Conceal-Carry, we out here in the grass-roots call them DEMOCRATS.There is no Republican in the entire state of Illinois that is, first, acceptable to the suburban Chicago Republicans, and, second, pure enough to satisfy the downstate Republicans.
Illinois will never have a Republican anything in my lifetime. It may never have a Republican anything in America's lifetime.
Well, you're presumably alive and you do have a Republican US Senator, although you might not consider him as such.
Mea culpa. I should have been clearer. I don’t believe Illinois will have a Republican Governor, or a Republican majority in the State House or State Senate.
So why can’t the exact same statewide Illinois electorate which elected a Republican US Senator elect a Republican governor?
The last Republican Governor, George Ryan was released from Federal Prison in December, 2012 after having been convicted of several corruption charges. He SHOULD HAVE been put on DEATH ROW for the MURDER of the Willis Family Children as part of the Commercial Truck Driver Licenses for Bribes scandal, in which CDL's were given to illegal immigrants in return for a "bribe."
Prior to George Ryan, Jim Edgar (R.) and Jim Thompson (R.) were Republican Governors in Illinois.
George Ryan's conviction was followed by a Rod Blagojevich (D) Governor who was (surprise!) convicted of selling Government Offices and high level appointments for campaign cash.
Now we have a sorry-ass piece of milquetoast named Pat Quinn (D.) who's raised the state income tax by 66%, has enabled/allowed property taxes to SKYROCKET across the state, and with each passing day, allows $17,000,000 in unfunded pension obligations to further indebt this state.
One would think that the political climate in this state is screaming for change .................. Nope. Democrat Liberal Socialist Redistributionists have a firm grip on this state. The only "republican's" who can win in this state are actually Democrats who disavow the right to life, the right to defend ones self, and who raise taxes year, after year, after year.
Mark Kirk a Republican? Only in Illinois.
What passes for "Republican" in this state is not something one would recognize as a historical Republican who'd advance Conservative principles, advocate for smaller, less intrusive government, and lower taxes. In Illinois, Republicans are AGAINST those things. Go figure.
But then what the hell, I'm interviewing out of state for C-Level I.T.positions and it's only a matter of time before I'm outta this God forsaken state.
If Illinois were to have a Republican Governor and Republican State legislature, you could be sure of one of two things:
1. Divine intervention by the Lord God Almighty Himself;
2. The apocalypse.
I'd suggest #2 is far more likely. ;-)
They won’t let God vote in my precinct. And if He sends the apocalypse the unions will sue Him blind. Unless, of course, the Four Horsemen are Teamsters.
Some good news, Tim Walz in CD has gotten a challenge from State Rep. Mike Benson. He got off the hook with a weak opponent last year.
Meanwhile a Paulbot State Rep has announced against Franken. This after Paulbot Kurt Bills got just 30.5% last time. The worst performance by a GOP Senate candidate in the state since 1976 when some poor bastard got just 25% running against HHH.
I think that a Republican might be elected Illinois governor, next year. In 2010, Gov. Quinn won mainly because of Lex Green, of the Libertarian Party. Quinn beat Brady by about 20,000 votes, and Green got about 34,000 votes. If Green didn’t run, the majority of his supporters would have voted for Brady, causing Brady to win. Next year, we should encourage all IL anti-Democrat voters to cooperate and vote for the same governor candidate. If that happens, that candidate will win.
There are other wimpy RINOs that sometimes get elected US Senate seats or governorships in other states, particularly in the Northeast and upper Midwest. Illinois is not alone in that regard. At least you have elected lousy Republicans in recent history. Maybe you can elect less corrupt ones in the future.
“Has anyone even announced against Frakenberry?”
There is a state Representative who recently announced, it was in The Hill. As for Craavak, one reason he lost is that he moved his family to New Hampshire while in office. I don’t see that issue going away.
New Hampshire? That’s weird. Why not Virginia?
As for the State Rep. running who filed for the Senate, another Paulite like Kurt Bills.
Bills had the 3rd worst performance of any GOP Senate candidate last year and the worst in decades in MN Senate races, he managed to narrowly win only 2 small counties.
Yes, however bear in mind that the incumbent president’s party usually suffers a bad second midterm anyway. I’ll put my neck out and say all three will skate by. Incumbency does have advantages for governors.
We need a non-Paultard to run against Franken in MN. Since none of the first-tier candidates (Erik Paulsen, Tim Pawlenty, Norm Coleman, John Kline, etc.) want to run, what about that young man who seemed like such a good candidate last year (Pete Hegseth, of Vets for Freedom), only to see the Paulistinians steal the nomination for Bills in the state convention?
Craavack could have stayed in Chisago County or where ver it was he lived, and still would be at a huge disadvantage in the district. Unless we catch another 2010 wave, we need a blue-collar Catholic from Duluth to overcome the historical advantage that Democrats enjoy in the MN-08.