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Gerrymandering and the Republican House
Real Clear Politics ^ | July 1, 2013 | Sean Trende

Posted on 07/01/2013 3:35:57 PM PDT by neverdem

Politico leads its website Monday with an article pressing the argument that Republican gerrymandering could actually end up hurting the party. By creating safe districts where Republicans have to worry more about losing a primary than losing the general election, the GOP is being pushed rightward, potentially hurting its national prospects.

These types of arguments are nothing new. Neither are the fairly compelling arguments against them.

First, the underlying assumption about the cause of district polarization is wrong. As I’ve suggested before, the natural geographic concentration of the Democratic vote is more responsible for polarized districts than any efforts by Republicans. For that matter, states where Democrats controlled the redistricting process yielded pretty heavily Republican districts as well. Illinois has two evenly matched districts (one represented by a Republican, one by a Democrat), but the remainder of the Republican-leaning districts went for Mitt Romney by healthy margins (even as he lost nationally by four points).

Remember, the primary goal of redistricting isn’t to create safe districts for your party (though that is probably a secondary goal). The primary goal is to place as many supporters of the other party into as few districts as possible, leaving your supporters in a lot of districts that are just partisan enough to fend off general election challenges.

This leads to the second point: If Politico is correct, then Democrats should be in big trouble, because there are more overwhelmingly Democratic districts than there are overwhelmingly Republican ones. The New York Times’ Nate Silver, making a related point, has created the following chart, which shows the cumulative number of districts sorted by Obama’s share of the vote.

Silver writes:

The asymmetry is self-evident...


(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 07/01/2013 3:35:57 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Mclame did not track to the right and he got beat.
Romney certainly did not track to the right. He did not even offer lip service
to conservatives and he got his ass beat, as well.


2 posted on 07/01/2013 3:40:15 PM PDT by tennmountainman
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To: neverdem

Gerrymandering??Gerrymandering??? I live in Kirkpatrick’s district in Arizona that I swear is 300 yards wide and 300 miles long. It runs from just north of Tucson to Flagstaff is about the average width of a football field and snakes around like a rattler with hives.


3 posted on 07/01/2013 3:40:29 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: Don Corleone
Yep. That ‘Independent’ on the redistricting committee really did want Kirkpatrick to go back to DC. Along with a number of other Dems, districted to win. In a state, where the clear majority is registered Republican and the next highest registration is Independent, it is appalling that we have 5 Dem Congressmen and 4 Republicans only. That lawsuit is still in the court but it was a disaster in 2012 for us. Never let it be said the Dems care about ‘fairness’ when they can cheat.
4 posted on 07/01/2013 3:58:51 PM PDT by originalbuckeye (Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy)
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To: Don Corleone

I’m in her district as well, and I live in Maricopa in Pinal County. The only upside to that is she’s a slight improvement over my last representative, Grijalva, lol.


5 posted on 07/01/2013 4:05:51 PM PDT by Prince of Space (Be Breitbart, baby. LIFB.)
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To: neverdem
The problem with this graphic is that the D-party has many urban minority districts where the population is composed of a demographic that votes for them at a 90%+ rate.

The GOP doesn't have any demographic that votes for them at such lopsided rates, even among the backwoods snake-handling Christian types.

No matter how you slice it, there are always going to be compact urban districts that are completely in the can for the D-party.

6 posted on 07/01/2013 4:15:52 PM PDT by ClaytonP
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To: neverdem

Who would voluntarily live near Democrats?

They steal stuff and are useless.


7 posted on 07/01/2013 4:25:22 PM PDT by Jewbacca (The residents of Iroquois territory may not determine whether Jews may live in Jerusalem.)
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To: Jewbacca

That’s funny and true.


8 posted on 07/01/2013 4:51:28 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: neverdem

“the GOP is being pushed rightward”

ROFL- since when did this happen?


9 posted on 07/01/2013 7:33:00 PM PDT by GenXteacher (You have chosen dishonor to avoid war; you shall have war also.)
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To: GenXteacher
ROFL- since when did this happen?

The Cabal That Quietly Took Over the House

10 posted on 07/01/2013 9:19:21 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: ClaytonP

That’s a good thing for us. Heavy D districts cause the rat to be even more radical and useless. Being in districts where we must make our case sharpen us.


11 posted on 07/02/2013 5:21:19 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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