Skip to comments.Gerrymandering and the Republican House
Posted on 07/01/2013 3:35:57 PM PDT by neverdem
Politico leads its website Monday with an article pressing the argument that Republican gerrymandering could actually end up hurting the party. By creating safe districts where Republicans have to worry more about losing a primary than losing the general election, the GOP is being pushed rightward, potentially hurting its national prospects.
These types of arguments are nothing new. Neither are the fairly compelling arguments against them.
First, the underlying assumption about the cause of district polarization is wrong. As I’ve suggested before, the natural geographic concentration of the Democratic vote is more responsible for polarized districts than any efforts by Republicans. For that matter, states where Democrats controlled the redistricting process yielded pretty heavily Republican districts as well. Illinois has two evenly matched districts (one represented by a Republican, one by a Democrat), but the remainder of the Republican-leaning districts went for Mitt Romney by healthy margins (even as he lost nationally by four points).
Remember, the primary goal of redistricting isn’t to create safe districts for your party (though that is probably a secondary goal). The primary goal is to place as many supporters of the other party into as few districts as possible, leaving your supporters in a lot of districts that are just partisan enough to fend off general election challenges.
This leads to the second point: If Politico is correct, then Democrats should be in big trouble, because there are more overwhelmingly Democratic districts than there are overwhelmingly Republican ones. The New York Times’ Nate Silver, making a related point, has created the following chart, which shows the cumulative number of districts sorted by Obama’s share of the vote.
The asymmetry is self-evident...
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...
Mclame did not track to the right and he got beat.
Romney certainly did not track to the right. He did not even offer lip service
to conservatives and he got his ass beat, as well.
Gerrymandering??Gerrymandering??? I live in Kirkpatrick’s district in Arizona that I swear is 300 yards wide and 300 miles long. It runs from just north of Tucson to Flagstaff is about the average width of a football field and snakes around like a rattler with hives.
I’m in her district as well, and I live in Maricopa in Pinal County. The only upside to that is she’s a slight improvement over my last representative, Grijalva, lol.
The GOP doesn't have any demographic that votes for them at such lopsided rates, even among the backwoods snake-handling Christian types.
No matter how you slice it, there are always going to be compact urban districts that are completely in the can for the D-party.
Who would voluntarily live near Democrats?
They steal stuff and are useless.
That’s funny and true.
“the GOP is being pushed rightward”
ROFL- since when did this happen?
That’s a good thing for us. Heavy D districts cause the rat to be even more radical and useless. Being in districts where we must make our case sharpen us.