Posted on 07/05/2013 5:36:41 AM PDT by Perdogg
So much for any doubts about a September taper: with the street expecting a 165K NFP number for June, the actual print of 195K following an upward revised May print of 195K as well, means the September flow fade is now virtually assured. The Unemployment Rate stayed at 7.6% despite expectations of a drop to 7.5%, although the real action was in the underemployment rate which exploded from 13.8% to 14.3%.
From the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 195,000 in June, in line with the average monthly gain of 182,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job growth occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and financial activities. (See table B-1.)
Leisure and hospital ity added 75,000 jobs in June. Monthly job growth in this industry has averaged 55,000 thus far in 2013, almost twice the average gain of 30,000 per month in 2012. Within leisure and hospitality, employment in food services and drinking places continued to expand, increasing by 52,000 in June. Employment in the amusements, gambling, and recreation industry also continued to trend up in June (+19,000).
Employment in professional and business services rose by 53,000 in June. Job gains occurred in management and technical consulting services (+8,000) and in computer systems design and related services (+7,000). Employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+10,000). Over the past year, professional and business services has added 624,000 jobs.
Retail trade employment increased by 37,000 in June. Within retail trade, employment increased by 9,000 in building material and garden supply stores and by 8,000 in motor vehicle and parts dealers. Employment in wholesale trade continued to trend up (+11,000).
Health care continued to add jobs in June, with a gain of 20,000. Within the industry, employment continued to trend up in ambulatory health care services (+13,000). A gain of 5,000 jobs in hospitals followed a loss of 8,000 jobs in May.
Employment in financial activities rose by 17,000 in June, with most of the increase occurring in credit intermediation (+6,000) and in insurance carriers and related activities (+6,000).
Federal government employment continued to trend down in June (-5,000) and has declined by 65,000 over the past 12 months.
Employment in most other major industries, including mining and logging, construction, manufacturing, and transportation and warehousing, showed little change in June.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged in June at 34.5 hours. In manufacturing, the workweek increased by 0.1 hour to 40.9 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 3.3 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $24.01. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 51 cents, or 2.2 percent. In June, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 5 cents to $20.14. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from +149,000 to +199,000, and the change for May was revised from +175,000 to +195,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 70,000 higher than previously reported.
More shortly.
“Yup...some of that is what this is, the full-time job splits from business coping with 0bamacare.”
Exactly. We’re hanging on by our fingertips at my company. No one, aside from the few full time people, is allowed more than 29 hours of work per week.
Scheduling is a total PITA and part time personnel are mad as hell.
Obama will be gone soon. Let’s call it what it really is:
DemCare or DemocratCare
Obama didn’t write this or pass it on his own. The entire Democratic Party was waiting for this, blew it at HilaryCare and it was reborn as Obamacare.
What do those two and the Senators and Congressmen who passed the ACA all have in common?
422,000 jobs were “estimated” into existence in June via the Birth/Death Model.
Today, businesses are not replacing people who die or retire. They’re cutting back instead. These jobs do not exist.
This is how they come up with the numbers. They assume the number of people that “should” be hired in a booming economy and add that to the numbers, rather than count the real number actually hired.
These numbers mean nothing. Take away all the fictitious numbers, add those grossly underemployed or unemployed, and this country is in big, BIG trouble.
I think you have that exactly right. certainly where I work the pattern for years has been not to replace retirees. I work for a large defense contractor with so many people there are retirements everyday.
the problem is, in this Orwellian country we live in, the government and the media will be misrepresenting the actual facts, so it will seem to you few people have jobs, but they’ll keep reporting 7.6.
Would have liked to see participation rate on the graph. Nonfarm employment is distorted without inputs to labor.
Yes, estimates vary from about 125K to just over 250K.
See:
Unemployment in the United States
"During the 41 months from January 2010 to May 2013, there were 19 months where the unemployment rate declined. On average, 179,000 jobs were created in those months. The median job creation during those months was 166,000."
Iowahawk on this:
“Unemployment report in a nutshell: the Taco Bell that had 30 40 hour workers now has 40 30 hour workers.”
Well played. It’s only labeled 45-grams. It’s hollow.
How the Democrats Created the Financial Crisis: Kevin Hassett
You can see the participation rate in the chart I posted in 41. I can add it to the FactSet chart you replied to but it won’t be until late next week when I get back to my office.
From the chart in 41 we have round tripped participation rate to where it was in the early 80’s. a lot of the decline is demographics but a lot is structural weakness. I think I posted here a tweet from AEI economist who sai using the Goldman Sachs participation model accounting for demographics that the unemployment rate is really 9.1%.
Everyone that is anyone knows America's in trouble. Am I better off than I wuz 5 years ago? Hell no.
I hope they don’t count Federal, State, and local government employees as “employed”. A) They produce nothing, B) They consume what others produce. Every such employee should count twice as “unemployed”.
But, but...WHO WILL BUILD THE ROADS? *SMIRK* :)
How about some numbers that get reported but don’t usually make the news, social security contributions. I know they are reported and I would think these numbers would say a lot about the level being reported this last quarter vs quarters in the past. Even taking into consideration pay raises, I bet the number is lower now than Bush years.
They called these part-time jobs “summer jobs” when I was young. This economy is in a downward spiral because employment opportunities which were plentiful only 5-6 years ago are disappearing today.
People today cling to their jobs (if they are lucky enough to have a job) for dear life. That is unless you happen to work in Washington, DC; then, you are living in a boom-town with the taxpayers’ money as an unlimited financial resource. That is why our Federal government is the largest single employer in the world.
The Soviet Union had 100% employment because you belonged to and therefore worked for the state whether you wanted to or not.
We’re good. Obama can do his campaign thing around the world now. No worries.
What scared me to learn was what happen to the mainframe people after y2k..
I’m afraid you are right...
Yes and they almost always revise downward.
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