Skip to comments.Would the U.S. Still Lose the Naval War of 2015?
Posted on 07/08/2013 1:48:59 PM PDT by neverdem
Over the last few days I have begun the exhausting, yet wonderful process of moving. Considering the fact I have not moved in twelve years and I am relocating from a suburban single-family home to a small apartment urban setting in Washington D.C. I have some tough decisions to make on what to keep and what to trash.
In going through my endless collection of foreign policy, national security and defense articles (I print everything) I found quite the gem that needless to say made the save box. Instead of cleaning out our soon-to-be former home, I decided to take a small break (please don't tell my wife) and travel down memory lane.
The article in question is one you may know. From the Winter 2010 edition of Orbis, James Kraska's "How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015" was always a piece that I have gone back to over and over again. In fact, the article was one that sparked my interest in anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) and the DF-21D. Several years back, myself and fellow CSIS:PACNET WSD Handa scholar Daryl Morini had planned to write a follow-up piece -- but alas -- other projects always seemed to get in the way (I am still willing if you are my friend!).
The article creates a fictional scenario where China "sinks" a U.S. carrier. The scenario itself is rather, well, interesting:
"Americans woke up to a different world the day after the attack. The war was over almost as soon as it had started. Outmaneuvered tactically and strategically, the United States suffered its greatest defeat at sea since Pearl Harbor. The incidentcould it really be called a 'war'?had been preceded by a shallow diplomatic crisis between the two great powers. No one in the West expected the dispute to..."...
(Excerpt) Read more at realcleardefense.com ...
Zer0 will surrender to any and all Islamic or socialist/Marxist powers that declares war on the US.
It’s not even a question one has to answer. It is a given.
It depends on how independent and nasty individual Naval commanders get.
Japan and India are definitely preparing for the time when the USN may not be the top dog in Asia.
I have felt that the USN’s over reliance on supercarriers is an Achilles’ heel that the Chinese were bound to exploit. The scenario discussed in this article is a bit far fetched, but not totally unreasonable.
You’re damned right!
Remember William Tell’s second crossbow bolt (arrow).
China “sinks” a U.S. carrier.
One? We have many more not to mention lots of Boomers still active. Someone sinks one of our CVN’s I surmise they will get more than a proportional response (as soon as NObama leaves office that is).
Remember several years back there was an article reporting that a Chinese sub got behind a US Carrier and we didn’t know?
Unfortunately, that rarely happens in freeperland.
American Aircraft carriers don’t sail alone.
So ‘just’ sinking the carrier still leaves the rest of the fleet.
So I don’t see the Chinese rescuing American sailors. I see the fleet rescuing the rest of the sailors and any Chinese approaching being sunk.
Wars are lost in the White House and Congress.
It depends on who the president is at the time. If it is Obastard, you can guarantee that his response will be to run away and try to figure out why we made the Chinese do it.
How about a fictional scenario where the Chinese launch an SLBM off Catalina Island prior to an economic summit...?
That’s just what I was thinking.
Barring political surrender, the Chinese navy (the PLAN) would not fair well in blue water operations against the USN.
That is not to say that a cake walk is a given.
The Chinese could very well deliver some serious blows, especially with a surprise attack, but everything after that would go down hill for them. First, they would have no choice but to come out and fight. Their supply of oil and their exports would suddenly become USN property, and only defeating the USN in blue water operations would get them their stuff back.
USN attack submarines would be waiting, as would USN task forces made up of multiple carrier strike groups. Their satellites would be blinded, and many of ours might be lost, but we would still have long range recon, they would not.
You can’t win blue water Naval engagements against aircraft carriers except with nuclear submarines and/or other aircraft carriers. They don’t yet have nearly what it takes in those departments. If the Chinese mainland makes operating our carriers too dangerous, then we step back and make them come to us to get their trade routes back, advantage USN.
USAF long range support would also appear at the second island ring, perhaps even the Taiwan, if a war had started and the Chinese hadn’t seized it yet.
I think the author needs to go back to reading his Star Trek Generation comics (or just give up the closet space to his wife).
I just don’t see that scenario playing out. Despite the military’s deep cuts and pandering to political correctness, I still think it has a little more fight in it than presented in the article.
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