Skip to comments.Flipping the Senate: With Democrats on the defensive, the GOP has a chance to recapture the Senate
Posted on 07/09/2013 7:07:28 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Whats the outlook for the 2014 Senate elections? As in 2010 and 2012, the Republicans once again have a chance to overturn the Democrats majority.
Much attention has been focused on whether Republicans this time will nominate candidates capable of winning key races, which they failed to do in the two previous election cycles. But another interesting question is how Democrats will try to hold onto seats in Republican-leaning states even as Barack Obama maintains his strong tilt to the political left.
The lineup is certainly favorable to Republicans. Assuming the New Jersey seat now held by Republican appointee Jeff Chiesa goes Democratic in the October special election, only 14 Republican seats will be up in 2014, but 21 Democratic seats. Only one of those Republican seats is in a state carried by Barack Obama, Maine (56 percent Obama), and three-term incumbent Susan Collins looks unbeatable. In contrast, Democrats have to defend seats in seven states carried by Mitt Romney and in four states that were target states in the 2012 presidential election.
Republicans seem sure to win open seats in South Dakota (58 percent Romney) and West Virginia (62 percent Romney). Well-known Democrats are avoiding both races, and they look like certain Republican pickups. The scene is a bit different in Montana (55 percent Romney), where Senate Finance chairman Max Baucus is retiring after 36 years. The strongest possible Democrat is folksy former governor Brian Schweitzer, who takes populist stands on economics and has backed the Keystone pipeline, which Barack Obama has so far refused to approve.
Two seats in the Deep South held by Democrats with locally famous names are in peril, and the two incumbents seem to have different strategies.
In Louisiana (58 percent Romney), Mary Landrieu, daughter and sister of New Orleans mayors, seems to be running as a proud Obama Democrat. Her state has the second-largest black percentage in the union, and evidently shes hoping for high black turnout and just enough white votes to give her a fourth narrow majority.
In Arkansas (61 percent Romney), Mark Pryor son of David Pryor, the representative, governor, and senator whose election wins date back to 1966 seems to be running as a moderate in tune with local values. He was reelected unopposed in 2008, but Republicans have since captured all the states U.S. House seats and majorities in the state legislature. And Arkansas has a much lower black percentage than Louisiana.
Both Landrieu and Pryor have run under 50 percent in recent polls against Representatives John Fleming and Tom Cotton, with Pryor a statistically insignificant 1 percent ahead of the Republican.
In North Carolina (50 percent Romney), Democrat Kay Hagan faces a different battleground. The Obama campaign vastly increased turnout in 2008 and won the state with high black turnout and support from high-education whites. But that coalition failed to prevail in 2012, when Romney narrowly carried the state, and Republicans captured the governorship and won large majorities in the state legislature. Incumbent Hagan won the seat in 2008 largely because of slip-ups by Republican Elizabeth Dole. She has come out for same-sex marriage and isnt denouncing Obamacare. Evidently shes hoping to reassemble the 2008 Obama majority.
Another Democratic surprise winner in 2008 was Mark Begich of Alaska (55 percent Romney). He won by 1 percent after incumbent Ted Stevens was convicted on federal charges in October. That conviction was reversed in 2009, but Begich was positioned to cast what can legitimately be called the deciding vote for Obamacare that year.
If Democrats lose all seven of these seats in Romney states, and if Republicans avoid nominating candidates who manage to lose seats that currently seem unlosable, Republicans will have at least a 52-48 Senate majority.
And they have at least an outside chance of winning seats in 2012 target states Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire, plus Michigan.
Well, you might ask, isnt it unusual for one party to sweep all the close races? Actually, sometimes it does. Republicans did in 1980 and Democrats did in 1986 and those were the same seats.
Republicans won the bulk of close races in 2002, and Democrats won the bulk of close races in 2008 the same seats again and the ones up next year.
A sweep is by no means certain this time. But if the Obamacare rollout is a train wreck, as Baucus feared, the odds get better.
Michael Barone, senior political analyst for the Washington Examiner, is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Fox News Channel contributor, and a co-author of The Almanac of American Politics.
Since the establishment blames the tea party for causing them to miss out regaining the Senate in 2010 and 2012 I’m sure we’ll get safe RINO candidates.
Which is why the dim-bulb-crats so dearly want to pass the illegal alien future democrat voters and perpetual welfare act.
And some of our RINO-scum are willing to help.
A GOP run Senate would be far better than what we have now, but those RINO Senators are no great prize.
It would be nice to have a GOP Senate that would stop some of Obama’s extremism in its tracks and dethrone Harry Reid but most of the Republicans in the Senate probably won’t have the nads to stand up to Obama and the Democrats anyway. Where are they on immigration, on domestic spying, on controlling spending, on increasing jobs? Some of the GOP are as bad as the Democrats.
I don’t need a Senate run by John McCain. A Senate run by Ted Cruz or Rand Paul, however, would be a breathtaking site to see.
To do any effective good, the R’s would need nearly 60 seats, to compensate for the liberal R’s who would vote with the President.
Decoded: Barone gives advice to Dems on seats they have to infiltrate or attack.
I have great confidence that once again the Stupid Party will run the usual losers to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Meh. They might. I do have “faith” that they’ll screw it up though.
But the scary thing is 2016. The Rats could flip up to 10 seats in that one.
Go Tea Party! Beat RINOs!
Imagine what a catastrophe a McCain presidency would be with a Mitch McConnel Senate, and a John Boehner House.
Any Leftist thing McCain sent over would get a rubber stamp.
Congressional majorities can be great, but without a solid Conservative president, they would unquestionably spell doom.
Think Medicare Part D to the X.
With a McCain, you’d have to pray there would be at least one body of Congress owned by the Democrats. That way you could at least hope for a political stalemate if something terrible was proposed.
Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
However, I do like the idea of Ted Cruz being a member of the majority and hassling our RINOs into embarrassed submission...........
Really, Mike? We can appreciate West Virginia's propensity to vote R for President, but when was the last time it elected a GOPer for Senator?
Dole changed her mind and decided at the last minute that she really didn't want to run, so she threw the election.
That, and anyone with a (D) next to their name got elected in 2008.
Hagan is going to have a tough time in 2014.
I wasn’t trying to pick you apart there, because we have wanted the trifecta for decades. I spent nearly my whole life looking forward to a time when we could right wrongs if only we had the presidency, the Senate, and the House.
And then we got George Bush, and I realized we would not only not fix things, we would spend ourselves into oblivion by passing things like Medicare Part D and set the nation up for another depression.
Just sayin’... that’s all.
Right now I'm focused on the killing of the bill. Little else matters at this point.....
The attacks lines used against tea party senate candidates proved pretty effective last go around. They go like this: If the candidate is a man he hates women and is a-okay with rape. If the candidate is a woman she is nuts.
Tea party doesn't field career politicians in general and they are not smooth at deflecting loaded questions. They ended up harming themselves by playing into this stuff by trying to split hairs and wax philosophically on things like if there was ever a silver lining to bad things like rape. I don't want career politicians or smooth talkers (I'm talking to you, Rubio) but at least some saavy is needed.
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