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A Long-Term Bet Against Gasoline
fool.com ^ | July 11, 2013 | Wes Patoka

Posted on 07/11/2013 11:00:39 AM PDT by ckilmer

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1 posted on 07/11/2013 11:00:39 AM PDT by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

If and when the 0bamanation regime succeeds in forcing up the price of coal, electric cars will be a even less viable option than they are now.


2 posted on 07/11/2013 11:04:04 AM PDT by luvbach1 (We are finished.)
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To: ckilmer

libs like ev’s because they limit your ability to travel long distances freely. fits the whole agenda21 thing and forcing everyone back into cities, and having tightly controlled, few, corridors between urban areas that you can’t veer much off of.


3 posted on 07/11/2013 11:04:35 AM PDT by Secret Agent Man (Gone Galt; Not averse to Going Bronson.)
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To: ckilmer
We are seeing a huge supply glut of oil in the US

Supply glut? Is the author smoking crack?

Yes, our domestic production has gone through a significant increase. 5 years ago we only produce 5.15 MMBPD and our consumed 17.96 MMBPD or refined products.

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M

U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Petroleum Products
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTPUPUS2&f=M

While our production has climbed 42% to 7.35 MMBPD and our consumption has fallen 10% to 16.19 MMBPD, we only produce about half of what we use?

How the heck is about half of what we use a supply glut?

4 posted on 07/11/2013 11:14:10 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer
Owners of Tesla vehicles will be able to recharge their vehicle for 30 minutes to gain 200 miles of range, or swap out their cars' battery for a fully charged one in 90 seconds.... Haters be happy...

The obvious attitude problem of the author notwithstanding, there are basic flaws with the article. Gasoline, a mixture of straight and branched alkanes averaging on the iso-octane group, that can be made not only from petroleum, but from coal and pyrolytically decomposed garbage, is an incredibly versitile, relatively safe, easily transportable substance. Liquid power that burns in machines so simple (think lawnmowers, 1970's Datsuns), they can be fixed by anyone with a reasonable amount of engine skills. The hippy-dippy pipe dream of just plugging in, with nary a thought where the electricity comes from, or the exotic (and environmentally costly) technology needed to store it safely and efficiently hardly enters into the equation. Gasoline will be around long after the article author is pushing up daisies. Bet on it.
5 posted on 07/11/2013 11:14:54 AM PDT by SpaceBar
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To: luvbach1

Just had this discussion with a friend who’s running for state house of representatives in my district last night. He was thinking he might be able to attract some low information voters if he campaigned a bit about his new Nissan Leaf.

After an hour of friendly discussion, I think he’s decided against making noise about his car choice. I also saw a hint of buyer remorse when I explained he’s not doing himself any favors by buying a plug-in.

Besides the fallacy that he’s saving himself some cash, it may be true now, but the “green” factor isn’t. Also, watch as soon as the plug-in car market reaches .05% states will freak out and start installing tax by the mile schemes.

What really convinced my friend he had made a mistake buying the Leaf was when I showed him an official guideline driving our state government’s transportation plan called “Vision 2040”. They have been testing and have worked the kinks out of a pay-by-the-mile plan for the past 10 years and are ready to implement the plan as soon as there is political will.


6 posted on 07/11/2013 11:17:01 AM PDT by bigfootbob
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To: ckilmer

Is this a Tesla ad?


7 posted on 07/11/2013 11:29:58 AM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: SpaceBar

Gasoline will be around long after the article author is pushing up daisies. Bet on it.
.............
I don’t disagree. But the monopoly prices that gasoline has enjoyed are going to disappear.

Consumers are going to enter into a generational sweet spot as electric cars (and natural gas vehicles)and internal combustion engines compete against each other and push transportation and energy costs down. Lower energy costs mean that there will be an explosion of wealth and consequently a growing demand for more energy.


8 posted on 07/11/2013 11:32:54 AM PDT by ckilmer
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To: ozzymandus

No its a piece posted on Fool.com.

The pitch at the end is for more Fool.com articles.


9 posted on 07/11/2013 11:34:26 AM PDT by ckilmer
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To: bigfootbob

I love my Prius, but I just would never do a Tesla (despite how cool I think it is) or the Leaf etc. Not enough return and limited range. I guarantee you these charging stations will completely ignore flyover country for at least a decade.

And yeah, the Prius is expensive, but getting better as more and more buy them, which is why we took the plunge. Frankly, most other vehicles aren’t a lot cheaper and equal out with more gas cost anyway, and the Prius has fewer moving parts to go bad as well.

Nice to fill up for $25 instead of $80 like the old pickup.


10 posted on 07/11/2013 11:35:45 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: ozzymandus
Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) and SolarCity are teaming up

Teaming up? They are both owned by Elon Musk, the guy for whom this "reporter" is a stooge.

11 posted on 07/11/2013 11:39:22 AM PDT by Cincinatus (Omnia relinquit servare Rempublicam)
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To: thackney

How the heck is about half of what we use a supply glut?
..........
I don’t think there is a supply glut right now either. The US is just refining oil and exporting gasoline so extra US supply is just being dumped into the world market. And US prices are set by world wide supply/demand

However, it looks like the USA is going to add another 1 million barrels@day of oil supply this year and early indications are that in each of the next several years the USA will also add another 1 million barrels@ day.

That’s why Citibank earlier this year said that by 2017 the USA will be a net oil exporter.


12 posted on 07/11/2013 11:40:23 AM PDT by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer
so extra US supply is just being dumped into the world market.

It isn't US supply when we import more crude than we need and export the relatively small refined surplus. We have refining capacity surplus, not oil production surplus.

That’s why Citibank earlier this year said that by 2017 the USA will be a net oil exporter.

As much as I hate making market predictions, I would bet my horse we won't come close to breaking even by 2017 on oil production and consumption.

13 posted on 07/11/2013 11:47:34 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: ckilmer
the monopoly prices that gasoline has enjoyed

From the article:
The refining business is stable within the US. These companies have thin margins at 2.7%

A 2.7% margin is monopoly pricing? Has the author shared his stash with you? Sorry to be rude but do you think 2.7% profits are gouging?

14 posted on 07/11/2013 11:50:43 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: bigfootbob

Will the proposed tax-by-the-mile scheme extend to gas-powered cars? This could cause a revolution.


15 posted on 07/11/2013 1:01:13 PM PDT by luvbach1 (We are finished.)
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To: ckilmer

The fact Mr. Wes Patoka is oblivious to the fact America’s transportation fleet runs on gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels is mind boggling. America’s transportation needs are not going to be met by electric vehicles, solar power, wind power, or environmentalists’ bloviating. Pound for pound, there is NO replacement for fossil fuels that offer the same energy for a given amount of fuel. [And no, Mr. Patoka, we are not going to see nuclear or steam powered vehicles either.]


16 posted on 07/11/2013 1:05:06 PM PDT by MasterGunner01
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To: thackney

“monopoly prices” does overstate the case currently.

My point was only that if you have two competing power trains and two competing fuels — then neither will be able to enjoy monopolistic power—which includes the power to set prices. Rather they will tend to compete against each other—which tends to put downward pressure on prices.


17 posted on 07/11/2013 1:53:43 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: ckilmer

But it isn’t one company with a monopoly. It is hundreds. The competition exists.

When OPEC produced too much of the world’s oil supply, it had more ability to control market pricing. Even that has diminished.

That is like saying there is no competition for fast food because all the different companies are still making fast food.


18 posted on 07/11/2013 1:59:52 PM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: thackney

I don’t disagree with your point. Further I would add that I like the way TBoone Picken’s plan for natural gas vehicles is coming along. That will further reduce demand for oil.

It is in the interests of consumers to have lower fuel prices. Because lower energy prices are directly causal to wealth production around the world. Lower energy prices and the wealth of the world explodes. That explosion of wealth creates a higher demand for energy.

Energy supply and demand is very very elastic.


19 posted on 07/11/2013 2:05:32 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: thackney

As much as I hate making market predictions, I would bet my horse we won’t come close to breaking even by 2017 on oil production and consumption.
...........
I had my doubts about that until I started reading about the cline shale formation in the permian basin.

Not only is there more oil there than in the baaken and eagle ford combined but they can extract it much more cheaply and they already have the infrastructure in place to get it to market. so the volumes will go up as fast or faster than eagle ford.


20 posted on 07/11/2013 2:08:19 PM PDT by ckilmer
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