Posted on 07/11/2013 11:00:39 AM PDT by ckilmer
Just having massive reserves doesn’t quickly grow the production rate quickly. It takes a lot to grow as large as you imagine is going to happen in 5 years.
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Mr Maugeri continued. “In 2012, for example, the United States completed 45,468 oil and gas wells – and brought online 28,354 of them – as against 3,921 wells completed in the rest of the world, except Canada.
http://pipeline.post-gazette.com/news/daily-headlines/25226-7-1-2013-analysis-shale-oil-storm-blows-u-s-tanker-trade-out-of-doldrums-the-low-down-on-radioactivity-and-shale-gas-development
So add roughly 5 million barrels @ day to 7 million barrels @ day by the end if 2017 — and we’re talking about 12 million barrels@ day US oil production at the end of 2017.
That will leave us importing ~4 MMBPD crude oil and not a net exporter where this discussion began.
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That ~4 MMBPD is made up of a separate category that consists of natural gas liquids and biofuels to bring the total to 16 million barrels per day by 2017. Here’s the quote:
“Nationwide, production of all oil could shoot up from 11.3 million to 16 million barrels per day by 2017.”
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf
Separately the article mentions just how astoundingly the oil business worldwide has shifted to the USA.
“For some perspective on just how proficient domestic drilling has become, Maugeri points out that the U.S. completed 45,468 oil and gas wells and put 28,354 of them into production. The rest of the world drilled 3,921 wells.”
“No other country or area of the world has even a fraction of this drilling capacity and building up this power would require several years,” Maugeri wrote in the policy brief. “The combination of vast geologic supply of shale oil and low population density in these areas allows for intense, sustained production unique to the United States.”
No, Natural Gas Liquids was on top of the 16 MMBPD, not included in it. If you include Natural Gas liquids and the like, we consume 18.5 MMBPD.
See the breakdown again at:
US Petroleum Product Supplied
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_m.htm
Scroll down to “Finished Petroleum Products” to count the transportation fuels, heating fuel and other refinery products.
This page puts it a bit more succinctly.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm
U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply
Since reaching 12.5 million bbl/d in 2005, total U.S. liquid fuel net imports, including crude oil and petroleum products, have been falling. Total net imports fell to 7.4 million bbl/d in 2012, and EIA expects net imports to continue declining to an average of 5.7 million bbl/d by 2014. Similarly, the share of total U.S. consumption met by liquid fuel net imports peaked at more than 60 percent in 2005 and fell to an average of 40 percent in 2012. EIA expects the net import share to fall to continue to fall to 31 percent in 2014, which would be the lowest level since 1985.
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U.S. crude oil production increased to an average of 7.3 million bbl/d in April and May 2013, which is the highest level of production since 1992. EIA forecasts U.S. total crude oil production will average 7.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 8.1 million bbl/d in 2014.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/index.cfm
The harvard economist predicted a oil independence in 2017. Citigroup predicts that by 2017.
“U.S. oil and gas production is evolving so rapidly—and demand is dropping so quickly—that in just five years the U.S. could no longer need to buy oil from any source but Canada, according to Citigroup’s global head of commodities research.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100450133
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This is in line with the eia reports that I have showed you that show that annual US oil production increases are roughly 1 million barrels@ day.” Total net imports fell to 7.4 million bbl/d in 2012, and EIA expects net imports to continue declining to an average of 5.7 million bbl/d by 2014. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm
So that by the end of 2017 net imports will be roughly 2 million barrels@ day. All that will come from Canada.
Happy Independence Day. Earlier this week I received a note from Harold Hamm, the billionaire founder of Continental Resources CLR -1.1%. His company has been among the most aggressive and successful in drilling the Bakken formation of North Dakota — one of the megafields that has contributed mightily to the Great American Oil Boom. U.S. oil supply is up more than 40% in five years. We now produce more than we import. And Hamm thinks we’re capable of becoming wholly independent in oil by the end of the decade.
By the end of 2012, there were nearly 1,200 horizontal drilling rigs in the U.S. and Raymond James, Citi and the International Energy Agency had all released reports declaring the reality of American energy independence by 2020.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2013/07/04/happy-energy-independence-day/
(Note The date 2017 for oil independence excludes Canada which will provide roughly 2 million barrels@ day. The date 2020 includes canada—meaning both that the USA will be free of oil imports altogether and that US oil production will continue to increase by roughly 1 million barrels@ day to 2020.)
That page does not support your claim.
This isn’t saying anything different than I have said.
So we all agree we won’t be capable of being a net oil exporter by 2017?
Citi expects 30 percent of the U.S. heavy duty truck fleet to turn to natural gas-based fuel by 2015, well above the 10 percent it previously forecast. That would reduce diesel demand by an estimated 600,000 barrels per day. It also expects new automotive efficiency standards to reduce U.S. oil consumption by two million barrels per day, up from the one million forecast last year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-may-soon-energy-independent-185624403.html
Morse’s latest report, released Tuesday, has an even more aggressive view of the U.S. move to dominance as an energy producer.
If crude oil and field condensates, natural gas liquids, renewable fuels and refinery processing gains are counted, the report put U.S. production at 11.2 million barrels per day at the end of 2012, making the U.S. the biggest oil producer already last year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-may-soon-energy-independent-185624403.html
So we all agree we won’t be capable of being a net oil exporter by 2017?
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Yeah no net exports by 2017. That’s what the data and experts are saying.
This assumes that there will be no fall off in consumption in the USA. Last year there was a slight fall off in consumption but this year consumption is slightly up.
I’ve posted expert reports that the switch to natural gas in trucks and busses will shave 600,000 barrels per day off US demand and that increasing car efficiency may shave another 2 million barrels off demand.
So far consumption trends don’t tend to bear that out.
It just is beyond reason to expect a 20~25% reduction in both during such a short time period.
It just is beyond reason to expect a 20~25% reduction in both during such a short time period.
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Not sure that I disagree with you about that.
Especially considering that demand for oil is up this year in a relatively slow economy. If the supreme court strikes down obamacare, the economy will just take off and spike the demand for oil.
Take a population sector that you can directly relate to, everyone at your church, at your business, etc. What would it take for that group to cut gasoline usage by 25%? Some of them, sure. But all??? How many will replace their vehicles in that time where they could justify the cost of a significant change in technology? If Bob, Jim and Ray only buy a new vehicle every 8~10 years they are not all likely to jump to a high mpg vehicle in that short time frame.
There are folks like me driving a truck that only gets 14 mpg so a 25% increase is reasonable. But those folks that spent significant money already going to a high mpg vehicle, it is going to make that much improvement.
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