Skip to comments.Can the Democrats really win back the House in the 2014 midterms?
Posted on 07/11/2013 12:16:46 PM PDT by Hojczyk
According to one reputable pollster, they can. But the data don't support it: without a big boost for Obama, it's wishful thinking
In order for that to occur, we would almost certainly need to see an extremely popular president. We don't.
Among registered voters, President Obama's approval rating is in the mid 40s. No poll since the middle of May has had President Obama's approval rating above his disapproval rating among registered voters. The best estimate I have is that President Obama has somewhere in the neighborhood of a -4pt approval among registered voters. It's probably slightly worse among those who turn out to vote in midterm elections.
Indeed, the Democracy Corps survey shows that President Obama's approval rating in the swing districts is a measly 44%. His net approval among these 2014 likely voters is -8pt. This is despite the respondents saying that they voted for President Obama by a 3 pt margin in 2012. It's very difficult to imagine that Democrats can win back many seats when Obama is this disliked in these districts. In the last two midterms, the percentage of the vote won by the president's party was pretty much equal to the percentage who approved of the president's job performance.
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
There has been a concerted effort to damage the Republican “brand”. The major contributors are Democrats, the media, and Republican politicians.
The Republicans have no issue to stand for. The only thing they have going for them is how Congressional districts are drawn.
Yep. If they vote for amnesty the number of their voters who sit home will be triple the number as Romney’s.
just answering the title without reading the article.
The Republicans SHOULD keep the house and possibly take back the Senate....
but the RINO party is a bunch of useless wusses who would, it seems rather lose. we need a new party.
Daniel Henninger thinks that the Democrat agenda is about to implode. It sounds to me as though they are close to achieving their Cloward Piven strategy.
” The Republicans have no issue to stand for. The only thing they have going for them is how Congressional districts are drawn.”
Or how much they will get paid as a lobbyist, if they sell their souls to the devil, and support amnesty.
The primaries will tell the tale. Congressional districts are small enough to be local beauty contests. No matter how bad the leadership screws up people tend to believe that their congress critter wasn’t to blame. Primaries quickly show where the money is coming from. Activists had better be ready to expose that play early. The better your congressman the more likely there will be a democrat stalking horse in the primary.
Win? No. The GOPe will simply give it to them.
With a little help from the ‘election manipulation’ wing at the NSA, they probably can but I hope not. They’ll rush to give citizenship to illegals and that MUST not happen or forget it.
Not likely. Still, if anyone can hand it to them it’s the GOP establishment.
with the GOPe pissing off their own voters... yep its possible
It's amazing what a little "tweak" to the voting machines can do, they will show their enthusiasm by voting multiple times, and the dims will get everyone to turn out - dead, non-existent, illegal alien voters, etc.
Will there be enough votes counted for the Dims to take back the House? That's an entirely different question. If recent history is any guide, the answer to it may be different than the 1st question.
not legitimately but since elections are now mostly rigged, the fraudsters put in office who they want. Going through the process of even having elections is a joke but it keeps the fools thinking that their vote actually matters.
If the Republicans ram through a treasonous amnesty bill, there will no longer be a reason to support them. Bob
Republicans, democrats.. Except for a few, I can’t tell the difference these days.
It depends, at least in part, on how widespread the use of touch screen voting machines is. They control those. Soros’ people count those votes.
We need to primary out bad Republicans but vote GOP on election day.
The mainstream Republicans believe that their survival, political and probably physical, depends on supporting the System as it is, The Democrat effectively single party rule and the ultimate complete takeover of legislation by the Executive.
If I understood the srticle correctly he’s using 2012 data for comparison.
That is wise- this is a very important election for Obama and he will use his ‘vote machine’ to the fullest. Obamacare kickback donations will be pouring into the Dem fundraising machine (and Obama won’t be siphoning it from down ticket candidates like last time).
This is not a typical midterm election.
We’ve got a tough row to hoe. And the GOP-E, as usual, isn’t helping.
I appreciate Mr. Enten’s article. However, I think that his analysis that chances of Democrats winning House back in 2014 don’t look good overlook that Democrats rig the voting boxes imo.
Yes it will be very easy and they can sweep the senate, and here’s how, the republicans in the house pass immigration reform and me and a lot of others will be finished with the republican party.
For those who may miss what I am saying, I will not vote or send money to anyone that is a republican ever again.
Multiple voting is not necessary where touch screen machines are used. The Democrats get to count those votes. Elsewhere the traditional methods will be used, sometimes quite openly and the Republican Party will not resist or complain. ,p>The Republican Party is in the business of Illusion. It is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Socialist Democrat Party and provides the picture of an opposition party that the Democrats hold up to the cameras for so long as an "opposition" is deemed politically necessary. When it is time to end the opposition sham, the designated Republicans will be the first to be defendants in the inevitable show trials and Purges. The Boehners and McConnell's think they are stroking the crocodile so that it will keep them around and cut them in on the New State, or at worst, will eat them last. Things don't happen that way. The visible opposition, even if it is a sham performance by the ruling party is the first group to go to the wall.
Republicans are the designated opposition for the Socialist Democrats who still believe they need to present the illusion of there being an Opposition. The Republican Party is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Democrat Party. Its members believe that their survival, political and even physical, depends on putting on a show of opposition even as they work hard to cement the One Party Democrat State in irrevocable power. The Republican Party Leaders operate on the theory that the Rulers accept them as part of the power structure and will keep them cut in on the goodies or, at worst, the crocodile will eat them last.
That hope is vain. In a Revolution, and this is a Revolution in progress, the Revolutionary Party will maintain the Opposition until it is deemed no longer necessary. Then that opposition will become subjects of the next stage of the Revolution, the show trials and purges and, following those, the wall.
If they can’t “win” it, they can steal it.
Another thread riddled with pessimism...
He won by 4%.
Re: “Another thread riddled with pessimism...”
20 years of betrayal by the GOP leadership has that effect.
In light of what happened in 2010 and 2012, it’s impossible to have faith in the GOP Senate campaigns. They did good in 2010, but still lost 3 or 4 winnable races, including the crushing disappointment of the unpopular Reid defeating the hapless and hopeless Sharon Angle. Thanks Nevada GOP for nominating the one person Reid could beat!
2012 was a near total-disaster. Missouri and Indiana were given away by two idiot candidates. In Wisconsin a popular former 3-term governor lost to a far-left lesbian. In Virginia the dolt George Allen couldn’t beat the miserable Tim Kaine. Another two-time loser cost us Montana. I don’t know what happened in North Dakota. In Florida the GOP again had an unpopular and vulnerable incumbent, yet they nominated a guy whose only appealing quality was his name. Hawaii and Pennsylvania were always long shots, but disappointing nonetheless since the GOP apparently had good candidates in both, and since Casey is an idiot.
Looking at 2014, the GOP should pick up South Dakota and West Virginia for sure.
They should have excellent prospects in North Carolina, Arakansa, Louisiana, and Alaska. If Schweitzer doesn’t run in Montana, the GOP should win that one too, but he probably will run.
With a good candidate the GOP should have a shot in Iowa, Michgian, Colorado, and New Hampshire, but how likely is that to happen?
Minnesota is a frustrating situation as the despicable Franken seems set to cruie to reelection.
The GOP needs to avoid disaster in Georgia, Nebraska, and Kentucky.
In Virginia, Warner is nearly unbeatable. He’s a senator-for-life if he so chooses.
I wish someone could defeat Graham in the South Carolina primary. Graham holding such liberal views on immigration is bad enough, but the way he uses left wing rhetoric (calling opponents ‘bigots’ at a La Raza gathering) is sickening. I believe he also voted for Sotomayor and Kagan. He should be ripe for a primary challenge, but sadly it doesn’t look like he’ll get a serious one.
Redistricting associated with the 2010 census went strongly in our favor so in a word, NO.
Cheating has worked for them in the past.
Given how much the Republicans compromise (bend over) with the Dems, I’d say the Dems don’t even need to win many additional seats to basically control things. Boner and his crowd don’t seem to want to dig and fight the Dems, and seems to want to let them walk all over him. He’s always wanting to “talk” things out, and try to reason with them, but you can’t reason with liberals, and they do not back down. You have to fight them on everything in Congress, and sadly far too few Republicans are willing to do that.