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Can the Democrats really win back the House in the 2014 midterms?
The Guardian ^ | July 11,2013 | Harry J Enten

Posted on 07/11/2013 12:16:46 PM PDT by Hojczyk

According to one reputable pollster, they can. But the data don't support it: without a big boost for Obama, it's wishful thinking

In order for that to occur, we would almost certainly need to see an extremely popular president. We don't.

Among registered voters, President Obama's approval rating is in the mid 40s. No poll since the middle of May has had President Obama's approval rating above his disapproval rating among registered voters. The best estimate I have is that President Obama has somewhere in the neighborhood of a -4pt approval among registered voters. It's probably slightly worse among those who turn out to vote in midterm elections.

Indeed, the Democracy Corps survey shows that President Obama's approval rating in the swing districts is a measly 44%. His net approval among these 2014 likely voters is -8pt. This is despite the respondents saying that they voted for President Obama by a 3 pt margin in 2012. It's very difficult to imagine that Democrats can win back many seats when Obama is this disliked in these districts. In the last two midterms, the percentage of the vote won by the president's party was pretty much equal to the percentage who approved of the president's job performance.

(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 113th; 2014midterms; bho44
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1 posted on 07/11/2013 12:16:46 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: Hojczyk

Yes.

There has been a concerted effort to damage the Republican “brand”. The major contributors are Democrats, the media, and Republican politicians.


2 posted on 07/11/2013 12:18:27 PM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: Hojczyk

The Republicans have no issue to stand for. The only thing they have going for them is how Congressional districts are drawn.


3 posted on 07/11/2013 12:18:52 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: brownsfan

Yep. If they vote for amnesty the number of their voters who sit home will be triple the number as Romney’s.


4 posted on 07/11/2013 12:22:32 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Hojczyk

just answering the title without reading the article.

The Republicans SHOULD keep the house and possibly take back the Senate....

SHOULD

but the RINO party is a bunch of useless wusses who would, it seems rather lose. we need a new party.


5 posted on 07/11/2013 12:24:34 PM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: brownsfan

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323368704578596140112431854.html#articleTabs%3Darticle%26commentId%3D6051728

Daniel Henninger thinks that the Democrat agenda is about to implode. It sounds to me as though they are close to achieving their Cloward Piven strategy.


6 posted on 07/11/2013 12:26:04 PM PDT by Eva
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To: nickcarraway

” The Republicans have no issue to stand for. The only thing they have going for them is how Congressional districts are drawn.”

Or how much they will get paid as a lobbyist, if they sell their souls to the devil, and support amnesty.


7 posted on 07/11/2013 12:26:41 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (K I L L T H E B I L L !!)
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To: nickcarraway

The primaries will tell the tale. Congressional districts are small enough to be local beauty contests. No matter how bad the leadership screws up people tend to believe that their congress critter wasn’t to blame. Primaries quickly show where the money is coming from. Activists had better be ready to expose that play early. The better your congressman the more likely there will be a democrat stalking horse in the primary.


8 posted on 07/11/2013 12:27:24 PM PDT by Steamburg (The contents of your wallet is the only language Politicians understand.)
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To: Hojczyk

Win? No. The GOPe will simply give it to them.


9 posted on 07/11/2013 12:27:40 PM PDT by mad_as_he$$
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To: Hojczyk

With a little help from the ‘election manipulation’ wing at the NSA, they probably can but I hope not. They’ll rush to give citizenship to illegals and that MUST not happen or forget it.


10 posted on 07/11/2013 12:30:47 PM PDT by CivilWarBrewing
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To: Hojczyk

Not likely. Still, if anyone can hand it to them it’s the GOP establishment.


11 posted on 07/11/2013 12:32:19 PM PDT by 0.E.O
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To: CivilWarBrewing

with the GOPe pissing off their own voters... yep its possible


12 posted on 07/11/2013 12:32:42 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: brownsfan
Can the Democrats really win back the House in the 2014 midterms?

It's amazing what a little "tweak" to the voting machines can do, they will show their enthusiasm by voting multiple times, and the dims will get everyone to turn out - dead, non-existent, illegal alien voters, etc.

13 posted on 07/11/2013 12:36:02 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Endowed by my Creator with certain unalienable rights!)
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To: Hojczyk
Will there be enough legit votes cast for the Dims to take back the House? Probably not.

Will there be enough votes counted for the Dims to take back the House? That's an entirely different question. If recent history is any guide, the answer to it may be different than the 1st question.

14 posted on 07/11/2013 12:42:53 PM PDT by mellow velo (Oxymorons: jumbo shrimp, rap music, liberal think-tank)
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To: Hojczyk
Can the Democrats really win back the House in the 2014 midterms?

not legitimately but since elections are now mostly rigged, the fraudsters put in office who they want. Going through the process of even having elections is a joke but it keeps the fools thinking that their vote actually matters.

15 posted on 07/11/2013 12:44:40 PM PDT by drypowder
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To: drypowder
Going through the process of even having elections is a joke

Mark Levin agrees with you. Hence his call for a ConCon.

Who will be the first mainstream Conservative voice to call for CW II?


16 posted on 07/11/2013 12:46:22 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Hojczyk

If the Republicans ram through a treasonous amnesty bill, there will no longer be a reason to support them. Bob


17 posted on 07/11/2013 12:58:23 PM PDT by alstewartfan ("You have the most appealing surface I have seen. Bring it over here. Lay it down by me." Al Stewart)
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To: Hojczyk

Republicans, democrats.. Except for a few, I can’t tell the difference these days.


18 posted on 07/11/2013 1:00:19 PM PDT by Outland (Ping me when the revolution starts. Anything less won't fix this mess.)
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To: Hojczyk

It depends, at least in part, on how widespread the use of touch screen voting machines is. They control those. Soros’ people count those votes.


19 posted on 07/11/2013 1:03:48 PM PDT by arthurus (Read Hazlitt's EcThomics In One Lesson ONLINE http://steshaw.org/econohttp://www.fee.org/library/det)
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To: brownsfan
Only if grassroot Republicans cut of their nose to spite their face.

We need to primary out bad Republicans but vote GOP on election day.

20 posted on 07/11/2013 1:05:50 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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