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The wheels are coming off the whole of southern Europe
The Telegraph ^ | 7/10/2013 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Posted on 07/11/2013 1:39:59 PM PDT by mojito

Europe’s debt-crisis strategy is near collapse. The long-awaited recovery has failed to take wing. Debt ratios across southern Europe are rising at an accelerating pace. Political consent for extreme austerity is breaking down in almost every EMU crisis state. And now the US Federal Reserve has inflicted a full-blown credit shock for good measure.

None of Euroland’s key actors seems willing to admit that the current strategy is untenable. They hope to paper over the cracks until the German elections in September, as if that is going to make any difference.

A leaked report from the European Commission confirms that Greece will miss its austerity targets yet again by a wide margin. It alleges that Greece lacks the “willingness and capacity” to collect taxes. In fact, Athens is missing targets because the economy is still in freefall and that is because of austerity overkill. The Greek think-tank IOBE expects GDP to fall 5pc this year. It has told journalists privately that the final figure may be -7pc. The Greek stabilisation is a mirage.

Italy’s slow crisis is again flaring up. Its debt trajectory has punched through the danger line over the past two years. The country’s €2.1 trillion (£1.8 trillion) debt – 129pc of GDP – may already be beyond the point of no return for a country without its own currency.

Standard & Poor’s did not say this outright when it downgraded the country to near-junk BBB on Tuesday. But if you read between the lines, it is close to saying the game is up for Italy.

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Germany
KEYWORDS: eucrisis; europeanunion; greece; italy; portugal; spain
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Those scenes from Egypt?

They're going to be replayed.

1 posted on 07/11/2013 1:39:59 PM PDT by mojito
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To: mojito

Where’s the IMF wisdom?


2 posted on 07/11/2013 1:41:54 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: mojito

What? You mean the EU was not a good idea afterall?
How can this be? Isn’t socialism the answer to everything?
Mass taxation and spending....always works....

Even the USA has elected a socialist “president” twice!
It must be good......well, uh......


3 posted on 07/11/2013 1:45:51 PM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: Paladin2

Coming soon to the USA...


4 posted on 07/11/2013 1:45:55 PM PDT by Hojczyk
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To: mojito

They don’t call them P-I-G-S for nothing. (PIIGS if you add Ireland)


5 posted on 07/11/2013 1:46:03 PM PDT by HChampagne
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To: Paladin2

The IMF wisdom has always been more good money after bad.

Lots more.


6 posted on 07/11/2013 1:47:17 PM PDT by mojito (Zero, our Nero.)
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To: mojito

Tahrir Square in Paris, later in DC...?

Hmmm.

WILL NOT END WELL.


7 posted on 07/11/2013 1:50:46 PM PDT by gaijin
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To: mojito

Sky . . . Dark . . . Chickens . . . Home . . . Roost.


8 posted on 07/11/2013 1:51:01 PM PDT by YHAOS
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To: EagleUSA

I don’t think it’s the EU. I think it’s trade policy. The EU embraced free trade with communist China just like the US did.

They saw cheap stuff and didn’t consider that it was going to throw their own people out of work. That cheap stuff comes at the cost of your country’s industries and your citizen’s jobs.


9 posted on 07/11/2013 1:53:01 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: mojito

All Ponzi schemes end eventually. I think it just boils down to that.


10 posted on 07/11/2013 1:54:28 PM PDT by 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten
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To: Kartographer

Wheels coming off of Europe Ping.


11 posted on 07/11/2013 1:57:10 PM PDT by carriage_hill (Guns kill people, pencils misspell words, cars drive drunk & spoons make you fat.)
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To: mojito

All those European socialist MEPs. All those professors, with their degrees and honors and textbooks. Their endowed chairs. Their sabbaticals. So much smarter than ordinary people.

Who keeps screwing things up for them? I can’t figure it out.


12 posted on 07/11/2013 1:59:28 PM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: mojito
The only thing keeping that from happening in the USA is that the US has unlimited land and natural resources as in the oil shale boom with new tech like horizontal drilling etc. but democrats will shut down the oil boom soon too
13 posted on 07/11/2013 2:00:33 PM PDT by Democrat_media (IRS rigged election for Obama and democrats by shutting down tea party)
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To: DannyTN

“..That cheap stuff comes at the cost of your country’s industries and your citizen’s jobs.”

:::::::::::::::

Our jobs have gone away due to confiscatory corporate taxation levels, over-regulation, and government-supported unions. That is why we cannot compete. And now business has Obamacare to raise the costs of doing business even higher.

No, we know WHY we have lost our jobs and businesses.


14 posted on 07/11/2013 2:01:22 PM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: mojito

So socialism doesn’t work. Too bad no one is learning the lesson from the failure.


15 posted on 07/11/2013 2:04:08 PM PDT by I want the USA back (If I Pi$$ed off just one liberal today my mission has been accomplished.)
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To: mojito

The big question remains: what is the trigger of the collapse?


16 posted on 07/11/2013 2:22:16 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Best WoT news at rantburg.com)
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To: gaijin

DC........10 million strong.......we can only hope.
DHS and all the rest can’t handle all of us!


17 posted on 07/11/2013 2:22:41 PM PDT by free from tyranny
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To: mojito

Central Planners FAIL


18 posted on 07/11/2013 2:30:52 PM PDT by Ray76 (Do you reject Obama? And all his works? And all his empty promises?)
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To: EagleUSA

Don’t believe it. You could eliminate all taxes and regulations and you still won’t compete with Chinese labor rates of $2/day.

The taxes and regulations are pains in the butt, but we’ve had taxes and regulations for decades and it didn’t kill jobs. It’s the lowering of trade import tariffs that killed jobs.

I will give you one thing though. Our import tariffs are about 1% but our employment taxes on domestic producers averages about 10%. So the tax structure does provide an incentive to offshore. However that’s small compared to the wage differential.


19 posted on 07/11/2013 2:32:40 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: EagleUSA

But I’m also all for lowering our taxes by the amount we raise import tariffs, so it’s tax neutral. We’d still get a huge bump in government revenues when 25% of Americans went back to work.


20 posted on 07/11/2013 2:34:28 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: EagleUSA
And WHO is responsible? Perhaps, even the lo-fo voter will be able to comprehend those DC pimps of both parties that ushered in all of the free trade agreements as well as snoozing while the ABC agencies along with the legal industry sky rocketed the cost of doing business in the U.S. And perhaps, just perhaps, even our fellow citizens whose ability for critical thought that has been nearly extinguished by a torrential downpour of modern entertainment will be enraged by the devastating effects of Federal Reserve engineered inflation.
21 posted on 07/11/2013 2:35:18 PM PDT by free from tyranny
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
The Rowing Song by Willy Wonka (aka Roald Dahl)

Round the world and home again
That's the sailor's way
Faster faster, faster faster

There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing

Is it raining, is it snowing
Is a hurricane a–blowing?

Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a–glowing
Is the grisly reaper mowing?

Yes, the danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they're certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing.

22 posted on 07/11/2013 2:36:02 PM PDT by mojito (Zero, our Nero.)
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To: mojito

Ben Bernanke and the DJIA laugh at your wheels coming off.


23 posted on 07/11/2013 2:38:26 PM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: DannyTN
Things are changing, though. Chinese labor rates have quadrupled over the last decade and US rates have been stagnant or dropping. Ford, Coleman and others have moved some jobs out of China.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/08/column-wasik-manufacturing-idUSL1N0C04C020130308

Labor rates in China vary widely based on province and city. Currently they run somewhere around $250 per month on the low end (Sichuan province) to $1,200 per month on the high end (Hong Kong) for skilled manufacturing labor. If you divide these monthly numbers by 160/hours per month you get an hourly rate between $1.60 per hour on the low end and $7.50 per hour on the high end. Still, much cheaper than in the US, but the gap is closing.

24 posted on 07/11/2013 3:07:53 PM PDT by Gabrial (The nightmare will continue as long as the nightmare is in the Whitehouse)
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To: Gabrial

They might be changing but far too slowly to be a concern.

The Chinese have articles written every week about how they are about to implode, how their labor rates are skyrocketing, how their government own banks are going to collapse, etc.

It’s all misinformation to keep us from reacting to what they are doing to our industries.


25 posted on 07/11/2013 3:18:21 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: DannyTN

I was shopping for an insulated 1 gallon water jug a couple of weeks ago. I went to Walmart and they had 2 models to choose from. One had a spout on the bottom and the other had the spout on the top. That was the primary difference between the 2 as they were both just lumps of molded plastic. I was starting to favor the one with the spout on the bottom for ease of pouring ice water directly into my mouth when I noticed that it cost just over $18. The other brand with the spout on top cost just over $6. I probably would have bought the $18 one (Bubba Brand) until I noticed it was made in China. To my surprise, the $6 one (Coleman) was made in the U.S.A. Go figure.


26 posted on 07/11/2013 3:29:13 PM PDT by Carthego delenda est
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To: DannyTN

I knew a China scholar who assured me that Americans never have a clue as to what is going on in China. He added as a note that the Chinese don’t know, either.


27 posted on 07/11/2013 3:46:49 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Best WoT news at rantburg.com)
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To: DannyTN

They saw cheap stuff and didn’t consider that it was going to throw their own people out of work. That cheap stuff comes at the cost of your country’s industries and your citizen’s jobs.


Bravo! Well said.


28 posted on 07/11/2013 3:50:27 PM PDT by The Working Man
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To: The Working Man

please.... lower priceare not bad for the economy as it allows you to spend more on other stuff


29 posted on 07/11/2013 3:53:46 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: DannyTN
“The Chinese have articles written every week about how they are about to implode, how their labor rates are skyrocketing, how their government own banks are going to collapse, etc. It’s all misinformation to keep us from reacting to what they are doing to our industries.”

Uhhh, no.

I see Chinese propaganda all the time in advertising sections in the WSJ, Forbes, IBD., etc., and it is all the same crap cranked out by the Chinese government. Stuff like “...in China everything is great. All our workers are happy. Our technology rivals the most advanced Western countries. Our young people are highly trained...” all kinds of horsecrap. They are trying to attract businesses to China by painting a rosy picture. It pisses me off this crap gets printed in US publications but it does because they pay cash. I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Do you really think the Chinese government would release articles that said their country was about to implode, their labor rates were skyrocketing, and how their government owned banks were about to collapse? It is exactly the opposite. It is not the rosy picture they try and paint. They run sweatshops, they cheat on contracts, they steal technology, and they try and hack into all our vital computer systems. For all of these reasons, some US comapnies that fired Americans and moved jobs to China are begining to have buyers remorse. GE, Apple, Ford, Coleman, and others have begun to reverse course and move some (not enough) jobs out of China. The Chinese refuse to acknowledge that fact because it does not fit with their "rosy picture" narrative.

30 posted on 07/11/2013 4:14:46 PM PDT by Gabrial (The nightmare will continue as long as the nightmare is in the Whitehouse)
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To: free from tyranny

“...even our fellow citizens whose ability for critical thought that has been nearly extinguished by a torrential downpour of modern entertainment will be enraged by the devastating effects of Federal Reserve engineered inflation...”

Dang. You need to get a talk show!


31 posted on 07/11/2013 4:17:40 PM PDT by Gabrial (The nightmare will continue as long as the nightmare is in the Whitehouse)
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To: DannyTN
They saw cheap stuff and didn’t consider that it was going to throw their own people out of work. That cheap stuff comes at the cost of your country’s industries and your citizen’s jobs.

Oh, for Pete's sake. Trade -- even with China -- doesn't cause these problems. Government over-spending, regulation, and taxation cause these problems. But you always want to blame the individual, the citizen looking to get more for his buck Euro.

Pritchard thinks the answer is for each country to print its own currency into orbit. That, of course, gives the illusion temporarily of a growing economy. At the same time, it robs people of their savings and causes businesses to invest in projects that only look profitable because the central bank is price-controlling interest rates.

It inevitably leads to a recession.

I'm not much on the EU. But the Euro could have been a big success if all the countries that signed up for it had been fiscally responsible [i.e., done what they said they'd do].

32 posted on 07/11/2013 5:14:01 PM PDT by BfloGuy (The imposition of a duty on the importation of a commodity burdens the consumers. --Ludwig Von Mises)
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To: Gabrial
"For all of these reasons, some US companies that fired Americans and moved jobs to China are begining to have buyers remorse."

They can't be having that much remorse. It sure hasn't shown up in the trade deficit numbers with China yet.


33 posted on 07/11/2013 5:15:45 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Gabrial
"For all of these reasons, some US companies that fired Americans and moved jobs to China are begining to have buyers remorse."

They can't be having that much remorse. It sure hasn't shown up in the trade deficit numbers with China yet.


34 posted on 07/11/2013 5:18:52 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: DannyTN

Good point. The announcements made by the companies I mentioned were made this year. It will be interesting to see what the 2013 numbers look like.


35 posted on 07/11/2013 8:14:59 PM PDT by Gabrial (The nightmare will continue as long as the nightmare is in the Whitehouse)
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To: BfloGuy

The only response you’ll get from DT is “tarrifs”!


36 posted on 07/11/2013 8:24:12 PM PDT by Fledermaus (Note to the NSA: I approved this dissention. What are you going to do about it Punks?)
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To: Ray76

Ditto for the so-called economic development programs every town and state has going. Take money from one business to give to another, and take a big chunk out of it to pay politicians to travel and schmooz. And everybody seems to love it. Doesn’t anyone understand economics?


37 posted on 07/11/2013 8:27:15 PM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: DannyTN

Tariffs make everyone poorer, and protectionism doesn’t save or create jobs.


38 posted on 07/11/2013 8:28:26 PM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Pining_4_TX
Tariffs make everyone poorer, and protectionism doesn’t save or create jobs.

Good thing you were not around at the founding of our nation. The first(or nearly) piece of legislation signed by President WAshington was the Tariff Act.

39 posted on 07/11/2013 8:47:35 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: central_va

True, I’m not quite that old, but tariffs have never done anything to enrich a nation. Every time the government intervenes in a free market, it causes distortions that have a ripple effect. Everyone wants the government to protect their business or occupation from competition, and it always fails.

Tariffs and Freedom
http://www.fee.org/the_freeman/detail/tariffs-and-freedom#axzz2Ynx0nfd1


40 posted on 07/11/2013 10:05:08 PM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Pining_4_TX

Why do the anti tariff crowd love to tax income? Why are you so progressive?


41 posted on 07/12/2013 12:58:07 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: GeronL

please.... lower priceare not bad for the economy as it allows you to spend more on other stuff


No, lower prices aren’t bad in and of themselves. But, and it’s a big one, if you want your population to be able to buy the stuff at those lower prices they too have to be able to earn money.

And that’s what I have seen over my lifetime, businesses cutting back labor because it costs too much and sending the jobs and production overseas. In that way it’s much like a ponzi scheme. The first ones in and out make out great the ones who got in late ending up losing their money and paying for the ones who were there first.

And then we have those who use the Government, both state and federal to subsidize those who can’t work, those who can but can’t find a job, etc. Ok, fine, until the Government runs out of money too. Which is where we are at now.

So what is the solution? I’m sure there is one but to achieve it would require that Capitol, (AKA Business), Labor and Government all agree that to survive in a Capitalist Economy, all need to recognize a few absolute truths. Business needs to make a profit to survive and expand as necessary, Labor needs a living wage that allows them to be able to purchase the goods and services the Businesses provide. Government need to stick to it’s core requirements of defending the country, etc. To do that it needs some tax money to pay for the labor and materials required to do the job.

All of those needs and desires need to be balanced out for an Economy to thrive.

But will I ever see it... No. Why? Because each of these groups is short-sighted and refuses to see the big picture and where they fit into it.

Business has been taught by the Academics to look only at the Bottom line and the Three Month P&L, and not to look years down the road.

Labor, Hmmph, I want it, I want it now and I want it all, screw everybody else seems to be the attitude prevalent among the Labor Unions.

And Government? No need to go there again, but I will. In order to be elected and re-elected the Politicians will promise anything and everything and then steal from Peter to pay Paul and vice versa.


42 posted on 07/12/2013 4:11:58 AM PDT by The Working Man
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To: Pining_4_TX
Free Trade Doesn't work: What should replace it and why. Chap 6 The deliberately Forgotten History of Trade

That's a myth. We had protections in this country until 1960 and they served us well. Google History of tariffs in the U.S. Wikipedia.

43 posted on 07/12/2013 5:47:56 AM PDT by DannyTN (h)
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To: Pining_4_TX
The problem is a lot of people confuse the basic argument for trade (comparative advantage) with free trade between nations.

Total wealth usually goes up when you trade due to comparative advantange, but there is no guarantee that both nations benefit from the trade. That's especially true when one nation is a high wage nation and another is a low wage nation.

It's doubly true, when you have a nation like Communist China. China doesn't allow the dollars to come back to purchase trade goods from the U.S., so that shoots the comparative advantage model out the window.

China raises taxes equal to 90% of it's GNP. Basically the Communist government soaks up most of the profits from Chinese firms and then directs those funds not to the purchase of U.S. goods but to the purchase of either U.S. debt or worse the purchase of manufacturing ability and know how, so they they can further compete against us.

We should immediately do the following:


44 posted on 07/12/2013 6:07:55 AM PDT by DannyTN (h)
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To: central_va

How is free trade a tax?

Me, a progressive??? Perish the thought!


45 posted on 07/12/2013 9:41:20 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: DannyTN

I disagree. The laws of economics are like the laws of gravity - the longer you ignore them, the harder the landing will be at the end.

Holding back foreign goods only works for so long, and then the distortions in the market that creates overwhelms the attempted protectionism.

Unions in the US did everything they could to keep Americans from buying foreign cars, particularly Japanese made cars. The result was that unions got fat and happy, and the lack of competition led to a more expensive but increasingly inferior product. Why should Americans be forced to pay more for less to protect the jobs of people who are overpaid compared to the actual value and difficulty of their jobs?

In the long run, these attempts to prohibit competition hurt the workers and companies they were intended to help.

Subsidies Hurt Recipients, Too
http://www.fee.org/files/docLib/1007Folsom.pdf

What we are seeing an interesting uprising of workers and ordinary citizens in China demanding better pay and working conditions and better living conditions. At some point, the world economy will eventually level the playing field. If it weren’t for government interference in markets, this would have happened gradually and without such a shock to American workers who had gotten used to the status quo. Changes are almost always painful, but they lead to better conditions for everyone in the end.

We will disagree, I’m sure, but I still think free trade is the only thing that creates wealth and progress for everyone.


46 posted on 07/12/2013 9:51:42 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: DannyTN

Well, wikipedia has its problems and biases.

As for the article, I have read parts of it (it is long!) and I think he contradicts himself in places.

Also, if protectionism is so great, then why don’t we practice it between states? Or even cities? I still believe that everyone benefits from free trade which benefits both parties. If people didn’t get something from the deal, they wouldn’t participate. I don’t see why poor people should pay more for goods to protect the jobs of union workers and CEOs.


47 posted on 07/12/2013 10:04:30 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (All those who were appointed to eternal life believed. Acts 13:48)
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To: Pining_4_TX
"Also, if protectionism is so great, then why don’t we practice it between states?"

The states all play pretty much by the same rules. There is some variation but it's not much. And we are all part of one nation. So if Atlanta incents a company to move from Boston, you at least have some Americans benefiting while some Americans lose. We do have some of the smarter cities paying incentives and giving tax breaks to businesses to come there, because they've realized the benefits.

I still believe that everyone benefits from free trade which benefits both parties. If people didn’t get something from the deal, they wouldn’t participate.

Well that's just it. I still buy Chinese goods from Walmart, because I get a cheap price. Even though I know it's putting my fellow Americans out of work. But don't expect me to self sacrifice while everyone else buy's from China. That is government's proper role to regulate those external trade relationships. I'll stop when everyone else stops.

"I don’t see why poor people should pay more for goods to protect the jobs of union workers and CEOs"

If we were at full employment, I'd agree with you. But we are not. At this point, poor people should pay more to protect their own job. Because with 25% out of work and it's still moving in the wrong direction, that's what it amounts to.

Just because Unions supported protectionism doesn't mean that they were wrong in all situations. Broken clock is right twice a day. The logical extreme is to outsource all American jobs and really teach those Unions!!!

48 posted on 07/12/2013 11:10:29 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Pining_4_TX
Oh and my main reason for pointing you to Wikipedia is they have a nice table of the history of tariffs. And you can see that dropping them is a fairly recent phenomenon.

I'm not sure I've read the article all the way through, however I do believe it mentions the exceptions for low wage countries where free trade doesn't necessarily benefit both states. China takes it to an extreme because it's not just the wage differential, its the fact that the money is not allowed to come back to buy our trade goods, only our manufacturing capacity.

49 posted on 07/12/2013 11:12:42 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: mojito

The fruits of socialism and communism, coming soon to an American country near you.


50 posted on 07/12/2013 11:16:43 AM PDT by Lancey Howard
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