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Yes, the Missing Whites Matter
Real Clear Politics ^ | July 12, 2013 | Sean Trende

Posted on 07/11/2013 5:42:55 PM PDT by neverdem

In my recent four-part series on demographic changes, the 2012 elections and immigration reform, I suggested that census data and exit polls reveal that some 6 million white voters opted to sit out last November’s election. The data show these non-voters were not primarily Southerners or evangelicals, but were located in Northeast, Midwest and Southwest. Mainly, they fit the profile of “Reagan Democrats” or, more recently, a Ross Perot supporter. For these no-shows, Mitt Romney was not a natural fit.

I drew the conclusion that one path forward for the Republican Party could involve, in part, reaching out to these voters by altering the GOP’s economic platform and messaging. There are still valid questions that flow from this: How much...

--snip--

If we use the census data throughout for all of our projections, we actually end up observing 5.9 million fewer whites than anticipated. We also end up with only about 1.3 million missing non-whites, rather than the 2.6 million missing non-whites from my original calculations, taken from the exit polls.** Again, many of these are Hispanics and Asians, who in reality have lower registration and participation rates than our 55 percent estimate. You can actually use the census data to estimate these things in multiple ways (this runs into some of the peculiarities of the census data I mentioned), but they all end up pointing back to the same conclusion: About 6 million fewer whites voted than we would have expected.

My conclusion is that Republicans should pay attention to the concerns of the millions of alienated working-class voters who sat out the 2012 election because the GOP needs them -- not at the exclusion of minority voters, many of whom are also working class, but in addition to them -- to form a winning coalition in the future.

(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 07/11/2013 5:42:55 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

..and we’ll never know to what extent the NSA had the electronic capabilities of making votes for Romney go POOF!!!


2 posted on 07/11/2013 5:49:09 PM PDT by GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
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To: neverdem

“6 million white voters opted to sit out last November’s election.”

No problem, McCain, Graham, Rubio, Flake, Alexander, Corker, Ayotte, etc. have it covered—the Republicans will increase their 33% of the Hispanic vote to 33.75% by enacting amnesty. That should make up for the loss of white voters.

“My conclusion is that Republicans should pay attention to the concerns of the millions of alienated working-class voters who sat out the 2012 election because the GOP needs them”

Not to worry—these alienated working-class white voters will be back on board when they hear that the Republicans plan to bring in several tens of millions of more immigrants to compete for the few jobs still left.

How do I know this? Brilliant guys like Karl Rove, Jeb Bush, Eric Cantor, and Paul Ryan.


3 posted on 07/11/2013 5:51:54 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn (White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
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To: neverdem

Republicans don’t have to run a candidate the missing whites can identify with; a blue collar guy. They need to articulate a vision like Reagan did and run somebody who doesn’t look plastic, fake and like a Democrat in Republican drag. Obamacare was Romneycare. The only difference between the two was Romney was an American and Obama may or may not be. Romney probably wouldn’t have gone around destroying America’s image and destroying America’s alliances; Obama has. Other than that and some superficial melanin, they were practically the same.


4 posted on 07/11/2013 5:52:52 PM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: neverdem

Obama’s crew bragged that their Civitas database could identify voters down to the individual, and that they had megatons of data on each one. They use it to get out the vote and do fundraising.

IRS targeted conservatives and TEA party leaders. IRS also collected data on how these people are networked.

Suppose this was used not for get-out-the-vote for Democrats?

Also, what if this Civitas machine, IRS work, NSA work and other programs we don’t know about were used to do deep network analysis to identify Republicans who might enter a primary race, and make that difficult for them to accomplish.

Coupled with the State Run media’s obvious efforts to shape primaries, the confluence could be the result: a Republican candidate that conservatives did not trust and a low White turnout.


5 posted on 07/11/2013 5:55:01 PM PDT by DBrow
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To: neverdem

Don’t know if the missing 6,000,000 white votes would’ve made a difference with the incredible voter fraud: 148% of registered voters voting for Obama in Wood County, Ohio; 108% of registered voters voting for Obama in Cuyahoga County, Ohio; etc.’;etc.’;etc.’;etc.’;etc.’;etc.’;etc.’;etc.’;etc.’;


6 posted on 07/11/2013 6:00:22 PM PDT by laweeks
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To: neverdem
Mainly, they fit the profile of “Reagan Democrats” or, more recently, a Ross Perot supporter.

But this won't stop the marms from regularly showing up here to chide conservatives for not loving Romney enough to stop Obama from being re-elected.

7 posted on 07/11/2013 6:05:12 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: neverdem
I haven't voted FOR a Republican Presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan. Since Reagan, I've just voted AGAINST (in order) Dukakis, Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama.
8 posted on 07/11/2013 6:08:31 PM PDT by DJ Taylor (Once again our country is at war, and once again the Democrats have sided with our enemy.)
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To: GeorgeWashingtonsGhost
..and we’ll never know to what extent the NSA had the electronic capabilities of making votes for Romney go POOF!!!

Remember that brief discussion, in the mid-November election post-mortem, of the Romney campaign's GOTV system? The vaunted, cutting-edge tool that hit the floor with an unceremonious thud?

It's pretty clear that no other political party will be allowed technological parity with the Democrats. Just wait and see, this story will repeat in some way, shape or form.

9 posted on 07/11/2013 6:10:49 PM PDT by Charles Martel (Endeavor to persevere...)
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To: neverdem

Roughly 100,000,000 otherwise eligible Americans did not vote in 2012!

Since only (roughly) 60,500,000 did vote vote for the Republicans, it seems to me that there is onehellofanopportunity for the Republicans to find enough votes next time to run the LIEberal Democrats out of WDC!

But, they will probably screw it up again, just like they did in 2008 and 2012 by running as Republican LIEberals.

Somehow, someway, we have to get rid of the John McCains, Lindsey Grahams, Carl Rove kind of “Republicans” and find some Real American Conservatives to reform the Party.

I don’t think a third party will work, but I do think the Tea Party activists can take charge — won’t be easy, but is doable.


10 posted on 07/11/2013 6:12:05 PM PDT by Taxman (So that the beautiful pressure does not diminish!)
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To: neverdem

I still think it’s a myth that white Americans have stopped breeding. It’s an attempt at a self-fulfilling prophesy. There is no evidence at all here in country. The preschools and the maternity wards in the predominantly Caucasian areas of America are still thriving. Over in Europe, a lot of the schools and maternity wards have closed down because nobody’s making babies except the Islamist immigrants. And almost half of their babies are sickly and/or mentally defective due to cousin marriage inbreeding. And those children usually die young. Meanwhile, Caucasians in Europe are buying yappy little dogs and calling them their “babies”. Because unlike Americans, they’re afraid to make real babies.


11 posted on 07/11/2013 6:13:18 PM PDT by jespasinthru (Proud member of the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy.)
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To: neverdem

The point is that the Republican party does not “reach out” to conservatives, because it can’t. All it can do is not try to block them at every turn, which it tries to do.

Who *can* reach out to conservatives are individual candidates who demonstrate that they have core values and stick to them. Nobody, literally nobody, ever votes for a candidate because of their ability to compromise their core values with someone who does not share those values.

The *failure* of Republican candidates is that they far too often come across as the woman before King Solomon, who was willing to take “half a baby”, cut in half with a sword. The conservatives want a candidate who loves the baby so much that they would rather lose it to another than have it destroyed, out of “compromise”.

Many of them are so mushy that even if they could have the whole baby, they still want to offer half, out of some weird notion of “fairness”.


12 posted on 07/11/2013 6:32:01 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Best WoT news at rantburg.com)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

That’s the best description I’ve ever read!


13 posted on 07/11/2013 6:33:14 PM PDT by Rides_A_Red_Horse (Why do you need a fire extinguisher when you can call the fire department?)
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To: SharpRightTurn

Great post. If only the Stupid Party would listen.


14 posted on 07/11/2013 6:46:45 PM PDT by Nea Wood (When life gets too hard to stand, kneel.)
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To: DJ Taylor
I haven't voted FOR a Republican Presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan. Since Reagan, I've just voted AGAINST (in order) Dukakis, Clinton, Gore, Kerry, and Obama.

You said it before I got here, DJ Taylor, and said it more succinctly than I'd have done, too.

15 posted on 07/11/2013 7:03:21 PM PDT by Standing Wolf
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To: SharpRightTurn

Sharp...Excellent post and dead on!

“Not to worry—these alienated working-class white voters will be back on board when they hear that the Republicans plan to bring in several tens of millions of more immigrants to compete for the few jobs still left.”

I conclude, if another crap amnesty bill passes with any significant repubican lift, that 6 million missing white voter figure increases.

How do I know...my family and circle of friends of 100ish and their circle of friends multiplied by n, won’t ever take part in “hold our nose voting” again! Ever!

Put up or shut time has arrived!


16 posted on 07/11/2013 7:04:28 PM PDT by RetAF_fedUP (McLame and Gramnasty need to go!)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

bump


17 posted on 07/11/2013 7:10:53 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: skeeter

“But this won’t stop the marms from regularly showing up here to chide conservatives for not loving Romney enough to stop Obama from being re-elected.”

I’m with you there.


18 posted on 07/11/2013 7:15:10 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: DBrow

And then there’s Romney’s GOTV machine - which crashed and burned.

Hard for me to draw too many constituent conclusions when the GOTV of the two candidates was so incredibly mis-matched.


19 posted on 07/11/2013 8:05:46 PM PDT by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: D-fendr

“And then there’s Romney’s GOTV machine - which crashed and burned.”

Hacked by an “infrastructure analyst”?


20 posted on 07/11/2013 8:14:47 PM PDT by DBrow
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To: DBrow

I haven’t seen a definitive analysis of why it failed.

I did read, IIRC, some accounts that indicated a fatal lack of testing and coordination.


21 posted on 07/11/2013 8:17:04 PM PDT by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: D-fendr

“I did read, IIRC, some accounts that indicated a fatal lack of testing and coordination.”

Yes, I read that too, in the LA Times, NYT, Boston Globe.

I still suspect some outside help to make it crash, based on what we are seeing about NSA, IRS, FBI, big data, Google...


22 posted on 07/11/2013 8:21:48 PM PDT by DBrow
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To: DBrow

Only for taxes!


23 posted on 07/11/2013 8:23:44 PM PDT by Conserev1 ("Still Clinging to my Bible and my Weapon")
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To: DBrow

It is possible.

It was complex and if the accounts of how little they planned and tested are correct, that would IMHO likely be the cause.

If I remember correctly, the folks that designed and/or managed it were not very experienced. They were paid a ton of money though.


24 posted on 07/11/2013 8:26:05 PM PDT by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: D-fendr

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/08/Orca-How-the-Romney-Campaign-Suppressed-Its-Own-Vote

Here is one problem: In many areas, maybe entire states, the system sent out the wrong PINS and the PIN reset tool failed to work.

Overall analysis is that traditional methods would have worked better, the ORCA system had way too many problems and sucked up resources.


25 posted on 07/11/2013 8:34:23 PM PDT by DBrow
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To: DBrow

Thanks, I hadn’t read that one.

Here’s another for those interested:

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/11/09/romneys-get-out-the-vote-fiasco/

This is almost too painful to read.


26 posted on 07/11/2013 9:10:41 PM PDT by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
The point is that the Republican party does not “reach out” to conservatives, because it can’t. All it can do is not try to block them at every turn, which it tries to do.

The Cabal That Quietly Took Over the House

Conservatives are taking over. Boehner knows he'll be tossed if gives on amnesty. The pundit class is talking to hear themselves talk.

27 posted on 07/11/2013 11:10:52 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
The House just passed a farm bill without any part dealing with food stamps.

House approves farm bill in big win for Boehner and Republican leaders

Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) cast passage as a victory for farmers and conservatives who wanted reforms to farm programs. He acknowledged it took "hard work" to win passage.

28 posted on 07/11/2013 11:29:03 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: neverdem

made no change to food stamps ?

did they end subsidies? did they end forced cartelization of eggs or dairy or raisins?

a victory for who? ADM?

Not for us I suspect?

will it pass the Senate and be signed?


29 posted on 07/11/2013 11:35:48 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: neverdem

conservatives are taking over?

not in my lifetime I bet


30 posted on 07/11/2013 11:38:30 PM PDT by GeronL
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To: Charles Martel

Not just GOTV sabotaged.

Think of electronic voting machines and vote records sabotaged.

Think of votes RECORDED going “Poof.”


31 posted on 07/11/2013 11:56:32 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: neverdem

But I was told over and over by northern non culture war types here it was southerners and Christian fundies who stayed. Home


32 posted on 07/12/2013 12:24:18 AM PDT by wardaddy (the next Dark Ages are coming as Western Civilization crumbles with nary a whimper)
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To: laweeks
148% of registered voters voting for Obama in Wood County, Ohio; 108% of registered voters voting for Obama in Cuyahoga County, Ohio;

Yep. He didn't have to steal every county in every state, just a few critical ones..

33 posted on 07/12/2013 12:43:42 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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To: neverdem

There is no such thing as Reagan democrats anymore.


34 posted on 07/12/2013 12:53:04 AM PDT by Impy (Bring back the spoils system.)
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To: wardaddy
But I was told over and over by northern non culture war types here it was southerners and Christian fundies who stayed. Home

Sean Trende, a lawyer by training no less, is as much of a numbers junkie as Mike Barone.

I didn't link his recent threads about the Latino vote, illegal immigration, amnesty and the GOP because there were too many stupid comments on the threads from people who just reacted to the titles!

35 posted on 07/12/2013 1:26:12 AM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: Impy
There is no such thing as Reagan democrats anymore.

Maybe not, but there are plenty of working class whites who know they are screwed from reverse discrimination and imported cheap labor, environmental and labor over regulation, etc. There are reasons that the national average for independent, unaffiliated voters hovers around forty percent.

36 posted on 07/12/2013 1:37:55 AM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: neverdem

“Maybe not, but there are plenty of working class whites who know they are screwed from reverse discrimination”

In an email, I received a joke (that’s not so funny, really). Here it is:

A black child asks his mother, “Mama, what’s a Democracy?”

“Well, son, that’s when white folks work every day so we can get all our benefits, you know like free cell phones for each family member, rent subsidy, food stamps, WIC, free healthcare, utility subsidy, & the list goes on & on, you know.”

“But mama, don’t the white people get pissed off about that?”

“Sure they do, that’s called racism!”


37 posted on 07/12/2013 2:05:30 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam (I feel much better since I gave up hope.)
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To: neverdem
Anecdotal evidence:

To judge from the appearance of the white people I see every day, it appears to me that many have just plain given up. They are showing up in public in clothing that would have gotten them arrested in 1950. Unbelievably fat. Tattoos. Just worried about benefits, buying food, and gasoline. The white illegitimacy rate is also astounding. Pride and right American thinking? Gone.

It's why the unemployment figures are as low as they appear in the press. Many have just given up any hope of finding meaningful work. Given up.

Unless these folks are somehow revived, re-energized, there is scant hope for the US. We are going to become a white-minority version of the DDR, with violence.

38 posted on 07/12/2013 7:30:26 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk ("Obama" The Movie. Introducing Reggie Love as "Monica.")
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To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Sessions: How The GOP Can Turn Immigration Debate On Its Head

China Questions Climate Consensus

Can the Democrats really win back the House in the 2014 midterms?

Henninger: Big Government Implodes

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

39 posted on 07/12/2013 8:54:31 AM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: neverdem

We enjoyed a phenomenally successful election in 2010 with strong Conservative support.

Then the NE establishment Republicans’ decided to make a hard left turn running a liberal Governor from the most liberal state in the Union, Massachusetts, for President causing millions of Republican voters to stay home, hurting Republicans all down the tickets.

You’re saying that that hard left turn was a mistake? Who knew or could have predicted that, except... everyone?


40 posted on 07/12/2013 1:30:22 PM PDT by RJL (There's no greed like the greed of a liberal politician buying votes with your money.)
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To: RJL
You’re saying that that hard left turn was a mistake?

I wanted Romney about as much as Ron Paul. They were tied for last in my picks.

41 posted on 07/12/2013 1:41:45 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: SharpRightTurn


42 posted on 07/12/2013 4:01:28 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (I don't always vote, but when I do, I SURE AS HELL DON'T VOTE DEMOCRAT!)
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To: neverdem

Thanks for the ping!


43 posted on 07/12/2013 7:49:19 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: jespasinthru
I still think it’s a myth that white Americans have stopped breeding

I have seven white children, a white wife, a white grandchild, and a very light yellow Labrador Retriever.

In 2010, for the first time ever, I did not see or hear from a census taker. Not that I was looking for them, you understand - but they didn't show up.

Maybe it was the Bennington and Gadsden flags in the front yard, but maybe it was something else?

44 posted on 07/12/2013 8:01:36 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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To: Jim Noble
In 2010, for the first time ever, I did not see or hear from a census taker. Not that I was looking for them, you understand - but they didn't show up.

The "census taker" is sent to addresses that don't reply to the form sent in the mail. Maybe your wife filled out the form, or you moved into a brand new address that the Census Bureau didn't know about yet?

45 posted on 07/12/2013 11:02:05 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: neverdem

I thought this thread was going to be about omelette recipes.


46 posted on 07/13/2013 6:44:27 PM PDT by pax_et_bonum (Never Forget the Seals of Extortion 17 - and God Bless America)
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