Posted on 07/11/2013 5:42:55 PM PDT by neverdem
In my recent four-part series on demographic changes, the 2012 elections and immigration reform, I suggested that census data and exit polls reveal that some 6 million white voters opted to sit out last November’s election. The data show these non-voters were not primarily Southerners or evangelicals, but were located in Northeast, Midwest and Southwest. Mainly, they fit the profile of “Reagan Democrats” or, more recently, a Ross Perot supporter. For these no-shows, Mitt Romney was not a natural fit.
I drew the conclusion that one path forward for the Republican Party could involve, in part, reaching out to these voters by altering the GOP’s economic platform and messaging. There are still valid questions that flow from this: How much...
--snip--
If we use the census data throughout for all of our projections, we actually end up observing 5.9 million fewer whites than anticipated. We also end up with only about 1.3 million missing non-whites, rather than the 2.6 million missing non-whites from my original calculations, taken from the exit polls.** Again, many of these are Hispanics and Asians, who in reality have lower registration and participation rates than our 55 percent estimate. You can actually use the census data to estimate these things in multiple ways (this runs into some of the peculiarities of the census data I mentioned), but they all end up pointing back to the same conclusion: About 6 million fewer whites voted than we would have expected.
My conclusion is that Republicans should pay attention to the concerns of the millions of alienated working-class voters who sat out the 2012 election because the GOP needs them -- not at the exclusion of minority voters, many of whom are also working class, but in addition to them -- to form a winning coalition in the future.
(Excerpt) Read more at dyn.realclearpolitics.com ...
I haven’t seen a definitive analysis of why it failed.
I did read, IIRC, some accounts that indicated a fatal lack of testing and coordination.
“I did read, IIRC, some accounts that indicated a fatal lack of testing and coordination.”
Yes, I read that too, in the LA Times, NYT, Boston Globe.
I still suspect some outside help to make it crash, based on what we are seeing about NSA, IRS, FBI, big data, Google...
Only for taxes!
It is possible.
It was complex and if the accounts of how little they planned and tested are correct, that would IMHO likely be the cause.
If I remember correctly, the folks that designed and/or managed it were not very experienced. They were paid a ton of money though.
Here is one problem: In many areas, maybe entire states, the system sent out the wrong PINS and the PIN reset tool failed to work.
Overall analysis is that traditional methods would have worked better, the ORCA system had way too many problems and sucked up resources.
Thanks, I hadn’t read that one.
Here’s another for those interested:
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/11/09/romneys-get-out-the-vote-fiasco/
This is almost too painful to read.
The Cabal That Quietly Took Over the House
Conservatives are taking over. Boehner knows he'll be tossed if gives on amnesty. The pundit class is talking to hear themselves talk.
House approves farm bill in big win for Boehner and Republican leaders
Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) cast passage as a victory for farmers and conservatives who wanted reforms to farm programs. He acknowledged it took "hard work" to win passage.
made no change to food stamps ?
did they end subsidies? did they end forced cartelization of eggs or dairy or raisins?
a victory for who? ADM?
Not for us I suspect?
will it pass the Senate and be signed?
conservatives are taking over?
not in my lifetime I bet
Not just GOTV sabotaged.
Think of electronic voting machines and vote records sabotaged.
Think of votes RECORDED going “Poof.”
But I was told over and over by northern non culture war types here it was southerners and Christian fundies who stayed. Home
Yep. He didn't have to steal every county in every state, just a few critical ones..
There is no such thing as Reagan democrats anymore.
Sean Trende, a lawyer by training no less, is as much of a numbers junkie as Mike Barone.
I didn't link his recent threads about the Latino vote, illegal immigration, amnesty and the GOP because there were too many stupid comments on the threads from people who just reacted to the titles!
Maybe not, but there are plenty of working class whites who know they are screwed from reverse discrimination and imported cheap labor, environmental and labor over regulation, etc. There are reasons that the national average for independent, unaffiliated voters hovers around forty percent.
“Maybe not, but there are plenty of working class whites who know they are screwed from reverse discrimination”
In an email, I received a joke (that’s not so funny, really). Here it is:
A black child asks his mother, “Mama, what’s a Democracy?”
“Well, son, that’s when white folks work every day so we can get all our benefits, you know like free cell phones for each family member, rent subsidy, food stamps, WIC, free healthcare, utility subsidy, & the list goes on & on, you know.”
“But mama, don’t the white people get pissed off about that?”
“Sure they do, that’s called racism!”
To judge from the appearance of the white people I see every day, it appears to me that many have just plain given up. They are showing up in public in clothing that would have gotten them arrested in 1950. Unbelievably fat. Tattoos. Just worried about benefits, buying food, and gasoline. The white illegitimacy rate is also astounding. Pride and right American thinking? Gone.
It's why the unemployment figures are as low as they appear in the press. Many have just given up any hope of finding meaningful work. Given up.
Unless these folks are somehow revived, re-energized, there is scant hope for the US. We are going to become a white-minority version of the DDR, with violence.
China Questions Climate Consensus
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Henninger: Big Government Implodes
Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
We enjoyed a phenomenally successful election in 2010 with strong Conservative support.
Then the NE establishment Republicans’ decided to make a hard left turn running a liberal Governor from the most liberal state in the Union, Massachusetts, for President causing millions of Republican voters to stay home, hurting Republicans all down the tickets.
You’re saying that that hard left turn was a mistake? Who knew or could have predicted that, except... everyone?
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