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Can the Democrats really win back the House in the 2014 midterms?
guardian ^ | 7/11/13 | harry enten

Posted on 07/11/2013 8:07:09 PM PDT by knak

The word "spin" can mean many things. One definition is to present information in such a fashion that it makes people see something that isn't really there. A classic example would be a memo from the Democratic firm Democracy Corps on a recent poll they conducted in "competitive House districts" for the 2014 midterm elections.

The memo's authors want readers to believe that the Democrats have a chance to win back House of Representatives in the midterms based on Democracy Corps data. History and their own polling data, in fact, suggest the very opposite.

The president's party rarely picks up seats during midterm elections. It has occurred only three times since the American civil war: 1934, 1998, and 2002. All three featured presidents who were very popular. President Clinton in 1998 and President Bush in 2002 had approval ratings into the 60s in most surveys. Despite that high approval, their parties picked up only five and eight seats respectively. The Democrats need to pick up 17 to gain control of the House in 2014. The president's party has not picked up more than nine seats in a midterm since 1865.

(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; elections

1 posted on 07/11/2013 8:07:09 PM PDT by knak
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To: knak

If the Republicans pass immigration, likely. Because I sure won’t bother to vote, it would be pointless because Republicans don’t represent me. I think there are others that think the same way.


2 posted on 07/11/2013 8:10:50 PM PDT by Irenic (The pencil sharpener and Elmer's glue is put away-- we've lost the red wheel barrow)
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To: knak

Unfortunately, between conservatives looking for pure candidates, the extreme racial demagoguery that will likely be used, a Republican party that doesn’t really want to be Republican, the answer is quite possibly.

Unfortunately.


3 posted on 07/11/2013 8:11:23 PM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: knak

Can they???

Do the words MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD mean anything to you?


4 posted on 07/11/2013 8:15:17 PM PDT by null and void (Republicans create the tools of oppression, and the democrats gleefully use them!)
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To: knak

They control the ballot boxes so why not.


5 posted on 07/11/2013 8:18:46 PM PDT by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
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To: null and void
Do the words MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD mean anything to you?

They do, indeed; if you're talking about the 2012 presidential election, however, I believe the proper term is "massive, systematic election fraud." Yes, many votes were fraudulent, but the crux of the matter was comprehensive election fraud. Vote fraud was one method of many; the goal was election fraud, and it was achieved by the Democratic [sic] party.

6 posted on 07/11/2013 8:23:02 PM PDT by Standing Wolf
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To: knak

With the help of NSA and some hacked precincts, the Democrats will have a wonderful midterm. If not, the NSA has, from all appearances, given the Democrats enough dirt on the Republican “leadership” to continue to keep them in line.


7 posted on 07/11/2013 8:24:12 PM PDT by JimSEA
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To: knak

You sure bet they can. Remember all the “Obama can’t possibly win” BS last year?


8 posted on 07/11/2013 8:29:38 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: knak

Anything is possible now that the USA has become bizarro world.


9 posted on 07/11/2013 8:30:54 PM PDT by mylife (Ted Cruz understands the law, and he does not fear the unlawful.)
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To: Irenic

Isn’t that how we got a second term of Obama?


10 posted on 07/11/2013 8:31:58 PM PDT by mylife (Ted Cruz understands the law, and he does not fear the unlawful.)
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To: Irenic
I agree. If the immigration bill passes, that is it for me. I will never vote Republican again for any office - period. I am sick of being betrayed and lied to.

I hope the Repubs never win anything again, including, dog catcher.

11 posted on 07/11/2013 8:35:45 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: knak

After they stole 2013, I don’t take anything for granit, and I am surprised at nothing.


12 posted on 07/11/2013 8:35:55 PM PDT by FreeAtlanta (sue the DNC for the IRS abuse! Can RICO laws be used against the DNC?)
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To: knak
I doubt it. Public opinion has been, rightfully, shifting against Obama and the democrats after all of their scandals. This RCP graph tells the story.

This also doesn't bode well for the Democrats: Obama's approval rating on the economy is around 40%.

furthermore, only about 30% of the people polled think the country is on the right track.

And finally, Rasmussen is showing that, recently, Americans are starting to favor Republicans over Democrats on a generic congressional ballot poll which suggests that the blame for our woes are being attributed to the appropriate individuals, the Democrats.

13 posted on 07/11/2013 8:37:04 PM PDT by RC one
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To: knak

They can, and they will.

Why? because our side has already demonstrated in the past two elections that voter fraud is not considered to be a problem worth pursuing.


14 posted on 07/11/2013 8:37:08 PM PDT by Safrguns (PM me if you like to play Minecraft!)
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To: knak

Lord I hope not. Pelosi once was enough


15 posted on 07/11/2013 8:38:42 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: mylife

I held my nose and voted Romney/Ryan. I did my part. The Republicans aren’t doing their part if they pass a nasty amnesty bill.

Well, I am happy with Cruz, I’ll vote for a Republican in 2018. :D


16 posted on 07/11/2013 8:39:30 PM PDT by Irenic (The pencil sharpener and Elmer's glue is put away-- we've lost the red wheel barrow)
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To: mylife
So what? The Republicans are feckless, fearful and frightened. Those attributes do not lend the Republicans the ability to lead the country. the Repubs have no leaders to offer, no ideas that they will follow through, no way to effectively communicate anything. The repubs are embarrassing and empty.

For the first time in my life, I am ashamed to call myself a republican, so I will no longer and I have no guilt about it either. If the dems keep on winning, it is the repubs fault, not mine.

The repubs do not deserve my vote. Instead, if the bill passes, I will write in my dad's name for every office.

17 posted on 07/11/2013 8:42:30 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: Irenic

All we can do is chip away.


18 posted on 07/11/2013 8:42:58 PM PDT by mylife (Ted Cruz understands the law, and he does not fear the unlawful.)
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To: Dave W

It is hard to communicate anything when the Libs own the Executive,the Senate, and the MSM.


19 posted on 07/11/2013 8:44:50 PM PDT by mylife (Ted Cruz understands the law, and he does not fear the unlawful.)
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To: All

Why even try?

GIVE UP!! /s


20 posted on 07/11/2013 8:46:19 PM PDT by mylife (Ted Cruz understands the law, and he does not fear the unlawful.)
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To: knak

The GOP lately has demonstrated a talent for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. “Playing nice” with the Dems has been a disaster.


21 posted on 07/11/2013 8:47:08 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: Dave W
I hope the Repubs never win anything again, including, dog catcher.

Just a thought...maybe consider that elections are not about who deserves to win, because neither side does generally.... but think about who will fk up your life the most and the fastest? A lot less emotional that way.

22 posted on 07/11/2013 8:48:04 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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To: Standing Wolf

Point taken. Thanks.


23 posted on 07/11/2013 8:49:15 PM PDT by null and void (Republicans create the tools of oppression, and the democrats gleefully use them!)
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To: Safrguns

I for one hope the dems take the house. IMO this country is simply dying a slow death by a thousand cuts. If the dems take the house they will own it all and drive this bus off the cliff that much faster. Voting in RINO’s does nothing but put off the inevitable. The only hope for this country is to have it completely fall apart and put it back together the way it was meant to run. Start over.


24 posted on 07/11/2013 8:49:48 PM PDT by hillarys cankles
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To: mylife
Yes, I am aware of that, but you have to be savvy about it and strategize every day to get your message across. It can start with how the House is run, which issues are brought to a vote and how to frame an issue to your advantage, which the Repubs no longer bother to attempt.

The repubs should have been beating on Obamacare every single day. It should be their message and mantra. There are tons of material and they choose not to do so.

I could go on, but you get the point.

25 posted on 07/11/2013 8:50:25 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: knak

The Democrats have the entire executive branch working for them.

If they do enough harassment and ballot stuffing, anything is possible.


26 posted on 07/11/2013 8:55:06 PM PDT by Tzimisce (The American Revolution began when the British attempted to disarm the Colonists.)
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To: C. Edmund Wright
Oh, I am well aware of that. Neither party deserves leading the nation; however, my decision is not emotional. I never thought I would give up on the Repubs, but I have for dozens of reasons. I have thought about this decision for a long time and I am very comfortable with it.
27 posted on 07/11/2013 8:55:23 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: knak

Just as with Romney, it won’t be that the Democrats won but that the Republicans lost.


28 posted on 07/11/2013 8:57:42 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: RIghtwardHo
Remember all the “Obama can’t possibly win” BS last year?

And he couldn't -- until the RINOs bent over backwards to hand it to him.

29 posted on 07/11/2013 8:58:45 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Irenic

This is why there is talk of a Freedom Party.


30 posted on 07/11/2013 8:59:35 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: knak
Three-point plan to regain the House in the 2014 elections:

1. Get the Republicans to pass amnesty.

2. Convince the public that Obamacare is a good thing.

3. Whip up a race war if Zimmerman is not sentenced to a long prison term.

31 posted on 07/11/2013 9:30:30 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: knak

If John Boehner gets his way count on it.

What difference does it make anyway?


32 posted on 07/11/2013 10:24:19 PM PDT by Ray76 (Do you reject Obama? And all his works? And all his empty promises?)
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To: knak

The commie ‘RATS have corrupted our elections so bad and filled them with voter fraud that I’d be shocked if the GOP managed to hold the House. We’re a banana republic now and our “elections” show it.


33 posted on 07/11/2013 10:25:32 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (If America is a nation of immigrants, where's my free stuff?)
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To: Dave W

Crushing Obama should have been a cake walk in 2012. Inept. Undifferenciated. Unwilling to confront. As opposed to a cheating aggressive Obama who wielded the power of government to stifle opposition. In other words cowardly betas without a cause versus ruthless thugs with a mission.


34 posted on 07/11/2013 10:41:29 PM PDT by Ray76 (Do you reject Obama? And all his works? And all his empty promises?)
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To: knak

35 posted on 07/11/2013 11:32:25 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: knak

36 posted on 07/12/2013 2:49:23 AM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: Tzimisce
The Democrats have the entire executive branch.

O, it's far worse than that. Since FDR the actual machinery of oppression, the bureaucracy that governs every aspect of life has been securely in Democrat hands, regardless of who wins or loses an election, which they are quite capable of rigging. Their survival used to depend upon Democrat re-election. No longer. They are an independent 4th branch of government and more powerful than the rest. Combine an unscrupulous Executive Branch with a permanently embedded bureaucracy and you have the tyranny under which Americans now live.

How bad is it? The key members of the professional staff of your Republican Congressman are more likely than not to be Democrats. This is another reason why they call the Republicans "The Stupid Party." They are only too happy to collect the reward for cooperation with the "Evil Party" to come up with truly stupid ... and evil ... policies.

37 posted on 07/12/2013 4:10:10 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk ("Obama" The Movie. Introducing Reggie Love as "Monica.")
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To: hattend

Monica.


38 posted on 07/12/2013 11:45:53 PM PDT by Ray76 (Do you reject Obama? And all his works? And all his empty promises?)
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To: Ray76

If you look to the right on that cartoon, you can see Bill and Monica walking out of a dark alley...Monica covered in ...uh...white stains.


39 posted on 07/13/2013 1:15:20 PM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: Standing Wolf

If the rats can continue to get 108% of the eligible voters, they have an excellent chance.


40 posted on 07/13/2013 1:29:37 PM PDT by oldbrowser (We have a rogue government in Washington)
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To: hattend

Yeah that’s what I’m sayin... and knee pads! Made me laugh!


41 posted on 07/13/2013 1:50:20 PM PDT by Ray76 (Do you reject Obama? And all his works? And all his empty promises?)
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