Posted on 07/19/2013 1:40:21 PM PDT by thackney
81 years...do I have 100? 100? Anyone going for 100? 81 years...going once...going twice.....
The Three Forks now has over 1,300 producing wells and has greater reserves than the Bakken. It is misleading to not include it at this point.
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/bakkenwells.asp
To me it’s refining. You can have all the oil in the world but if you pass it through the refining system fast enough what good does it do to have all that oil?
Most Fracking wells are productive only for a year or less, whereas most traditional wells are productive for 20 to 30 years.
Also, unlike traditional wells, Fracking wells have a very high maintenance cost after the initial drilling.
And, most Fracking wells have a “break even” point around $55 to $65 a barrel, which means the price of oil doesn't need to fall all that far in order to put a lot of Frackers out of business.
Finally, in the midst of America's Energy Boom, the price of WTI closed just under $108 a barrel today.
How did that happen!
I was taking a figure purported to come from the state of North Dakota in this paper: http://www.nd.gov/ndic/ic-press/bakken-form-06.pdf
The paper was cited in a Wikipedia article. Now that I have read the article, I’m not sure where they got “18 Billion”. Some figures from the paper are far higher.
The estimates for the amount of oil in the ground range all over the map. Furthermore, the estimates of how much is recoverable also range from 1% to 50%.
The price of oil actually factors into the equation. If crude prices increase, then the amount recoverable will also increase since marginal methods will be developed and employed with greater economic rewards.
See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_formation
Re: “They don’t need to risk fines and penalties by hiring illegals.”
There are fines and penalties?
Who knew?
That's the entire point: you don't need illegals even when the unemployment rate is, what, 2% in North Dakota?
I was raised in North Dakota and would head back in a heartbeat if I was younger and less settled.
And WTI crude is over $108 per barrel.
Only 25 of the 115 oil-producing countries top 800,000 bpd
#26 Argentina produces 796,000 bpd...
#28 Egypt 680,000
#29 Australia 590,000
#31 Libya 504,000
#33 Thailand 380,000
#37 Yemen 288,000
#44 Germany 186,000
The top 3 countries in the world produce 28,800,000 bpd combined...
#4, Iran, produces "only" 4,200,000...
#5 China produces 4,000,000...
ND alone hits more than 20% of China's production.
(ND produces about 1% of the globe's daily production, so Bakken can't greatly impact global prices.)
As I understand it, it is not so much the “well”, but a particular vein that is being fractured. Once it is dry, a new vein or spider is fractured in close proximity. I just signed a fracking lease not too long ago. Around my “general” area, it is expected they will operate for a couple generations as the drilling and fracturing is starting at a depth of 6000 ft., well below the water table and there is a fat pocket many hundreds of feet thick beneath us.
Interesting comment, sort of like living next to the ocean and nothing to drink. Prices would be buck a gallon if refineries did not ship Gasoline and Diesel overseas.
True and true. Well said. I wonder if gas prices will go up in the fall. For now, I suspect that refiners and dealers are holding prices down for tourism. The dollar has also been propped up more each late spring or early summer for three years (erroneous propaganda about the Fed lowering rates, stopping stimuli). Nationwide oil consumption was recently down over a million barrels per day from consumption a few years ago (slowing economic activity).
All right, Ghost!
Does this mean no more quarterly “FReepathons?”
As to the wells.....
I assume that when a Fracked well goes dry, they just add more pipe into different veins.
I know modern drillers can do miracles at thousands of feet below the surface, so, once again, I assume they keep all the main drill pipes in place, and just branch out from a main connection.
I'm always interested in learning new things, so anyone please feel free to correct me or add important information.
“I’m bad at math. At 800,000 bpd, how many years of supply does the Bakken formation have before depletion?”
Not dependent upon production rate
20 years ago no one thought much potential remained in ND
Abundant amounts of oil existing in all areas of the world and technology is what it is about.
God gave us the most natural energy supply ever known
We need to thank Him
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