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Palin top pick of Alaska Republicans
Public Policy Polling ^ | 07/30/2013

Posted on 07/30/2013 7:51:38 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Alaska should be a top tier pick up opportunity for Senate Republicans next year...but their top choice of a candidate is Sarah Palin. 36% of GOP primary voters in the state say they'd like Palin to be their standard bearer against Mark Begich to 26% for Mead Treadwell, 15% for Dan Sullivan, and 12% for Joe Miller. Palin leads mostly based on her strength with 'very conservative' voters where she gets 43% to 20% for Treadwell, but she also leads him 28/25 with moderates.

The problem for Republicans with a Palin candidacy is that even though she is in good standing with the party base, voters overall don't like her at all. She has a 39/58 favorability rating, including 33/64 with key independent voters. There's a lot of division about how strong her ties to the state even are anymore- only 47% of voters consider her to still be an Alaskan while 46% don't, and 37% of voters in the state think it would be more appropriate for her to run for the Senate from Arizona to 41% who say Alaska.

It all adds up to a 52/40 lead for Begich in a hypothetical match up with Palin. He leads by 21 points with independents, 56/35, and takes 20% of the Republican vote. It's a slight improvement for Palin from February when we found her trailing Begich 54/38, but she's very much in a hole.

The best Republican hope for this seat is Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell and the good news for the GOP is that if Palin sits it out he, and not 2010 nominee Joe Miller, is the next choice of the party base. In a three way primary Treadwell gets 33% to 25% for Sullivan and 24% for Miller. And in a head to head with Miller, Treadwell leads 53/30. Even among Republican primary voters Miller has a dreadful 26/53 favorability rating.

Treadwell still trails Begich, but only by a 44/40 margin. That's narrowed from 47/39 on our February poll. Treadwell has a +6 favorability rating at 35/29 and has room to grow with 36% of voters still not knowing enough about him to have formed an opinion. Alaskans are closely divided on Begich with 42% approving and 41% disapproving of him. Begich's biggest complication though is probably how voters in the state feel about Barack Obama- just 39% approve of the job he's doing to 57% who disapprove. Begich does lead Sullivan (46/39) and Miller (55/32) should either of them slip through the primary.

It definitely looks like the action in Alaska next year will be the Senate race. Governor Sean Parnell actually has approval numbers that could suggest some vulnerability- 44% give him good marks to 42% who disapprove. But he still has wide leads in hypothetical match ups with a quartet of potential Democratic opponents- he's up 13 on Ethan Berkowitz at 51/38, 19 on Bill Wielechowski at 52/33, 20 on Les Gara at 53/33, and 21 on Hollis French at 54/33. Parnell also looks pretty solid against a primary challenge from Bill Walker, leading him 60/22.

The Alaska House race is a similar story- Don Young isn't terribly popular with a 47/43 approval rating but he still leads potential Democratic challenger Matt Moore by 28 points at 56/28.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Alaska
KEYWORDS: alaska; palin; sarahpalin; senate
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1 posted on 07/30/2013 7:51:38 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Is she officially running yet?


2 posted on 07/30/2013 7:52:41 AM PDT by livius
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To: livius

That’s what Alaska’s GOP are hoping she would do...


3 posted on 07/30/2013 7:53:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I must admit that I’m not a big supporter of Palin, but I think it would be a good idea for her to run for Senate.

I think she’ll be a much more powerful force in the Senate then as a commentator. Because she is so well known, she will be on the Sunday Morning shows almost every weekend. (Just as McCain is now)

With the greater visibility, she will have the opportunity to articulate her positions. People who are undecided about her will have an opportunity to see her unfiltered.


4 posted on 07/30/2013 7:59:07 AM PDT by Cowboy Bob (Democrats: Robbing Peter to buy Paul's vote.)
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To: Cowboy Bob

We’ll get to see once and for all if she’s got the stuff to be POTUS.

I’m looking forward to seeing how she would do.


5 posted on 07/30/2013 8:00:00 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SeekAndFind

You can read into that all you want but the bottom line is will she run? That is yet to be seen.

The Repubs and Demodummies are deathly afraid of her and her capability to see right through their BS, then speak her mind that everyone can understand. The great thing about her is, given the athourity SHE has the backbone to make changes they may not like.


6 posted on 07/30/2013 8:02:13 AM PDT by DaveA37
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To: Cowboy Bob

RE: I think it would be a good idea for her to run for Senate.

As long as the RINO Lisa Murkowski gets replaced, I’m all for it.

I’d love Alaska to have Palin and Joe Miller as senators.


7 posted on 07/30/2013 8:12:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: dfwgator
We’ll get to see once and for all if she’s got the stuff to be POTUS. I’m looking forward to seeing how she would do. Right. 'Cause America's got such high standards for anyone who would become POTUS. Give me a break.
8 posted on 07/30/2013 8:14:20 AM PDT by SarahPalin2012
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To: Cowboy Bob

I agree and hope she wins nomination and is elected.

That being said, her inability or unwillingness (you must pick one) to endure and overcome a bunch of hack journalists and vicious state bureaucrats from the backwater that is Alaska by at least finishing her term as governor does not bode well.

Her support of Karen Handel here in Georgia is another issue, but minor in comparison.

She is better than a democrat, and far ahead of crackhead RINO Murkowski, but that isn’t saying much.


9 posted on 07/30/2013 8:16:17 AM PDT by noprogs (Borders, Language, Culture)
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To: Cowboy Bob

I agree 100%. This is her best place to be. She’d be a great member of our growing conservative caucus. It would give her a real platform and demonstrate her seriousness. As a commentator, she is mostly preaching to the choir. She needs to be in a position where she can actually influence the real debate. Paul, Lee and Cruz are much more significant than Palin at this juncture...at least outside of primary election support, where Palin has been a powerful force with results.


10 posted on 07/30/2013 8:31:23 AM PDT by ilgipper (Obama is proving that very bad ideas can be wrapped up in pretty words)
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To: noprogs

There is no way she is leaving Todd with the kids to go to Washington for 6 years. Now 2 terms of 4 years each is a different story.


11 posted on 07/30/2013 8:38:34 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (The reason we own guns is to protect ourselves from those wanting to take our guns from us.)
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To: noprogs
That being said, her inability or unwillingness (you must pick one) to endure and overcome a bunch of hack journalists and vicious state bureaucrats from the backwater that is Alaska by at least finishing her term as governor does not bode well.

Her decision to come down to the Continental United States to help create and lead a conservative movement was a great stroke for conservatives, and led the GOP to one of it's historic victories in 2010, victories that will serve us for many years to come.

In 2012 she was the only good news as the GOPe served itself a disaster in Romney and managed to lose the Senate, Palin gave us our only Senate seat pickup and gave us Ted Cruz in Texas.

Her decision to shift her energies to the national battleground and a national movement, has served us well.

12 posted on 07/30/2013 8:46:16 AM PDT by ansel12 ( Santorum appeared on CBS and pronounced George Zimmerman guilty of murder, first degree. March-2012)
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To: SeekAndFind
Joe Miller booted away a perfectly winnable election in 2010 by making an arse of himself.

MurKOWski getting re-elected was almost as disappointing as Harry Reid getting re-elected. Miller needs to start with something less high profile like Fairbanks city council. Or even dog catcher.

13 posted on 07/30/2013 8:52:21 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: SeekAndFind

TAKE THAT YOU SARAH HATERS!!!


14 posted on 07/30/2013 8:52:33 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’d like to see her run.

Bet she won’t count on a Murkowski endorsement.. Madam ‘write-in’. Sure would make an interesting pair.


15 posted on 07/30/2013 8:56:31 AM PDT by SueRae (It isn't over. In God We Trust.)
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To: livius

Disregard this PPP poll. Leans left. Nothing to see here.
Move along.


16 posted on 07/30/2013 9:12:50 AM PDT by NKP_Vet
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To: dfwgator

I would like her to run in order to see how or if she can turn around those independent voters who do not like her, along with the establishment Republicans who feel the same.


17 posted on 07/30/2013 9:36:18 AM PDT by Alex in chains
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To: noprogs
That being said, her inability or unwillingness (you must pick one) to endure and overcome a bunch of hack journalists and vicious state bureaucrats from the backwater that is Alaska by at least finishing her term as governor does not bode well...

I've concluded that anyone who makes this statement is either willfully ignorant or mentally defective. In your case, which is it?

18 posted on 07/30/2013 9:46:15 AM PDT by gogeo (I didn't leave the Republcan Party, it left me.)
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To: gogeo

Ooh oh... I wanna see how this convo turns out.


19 posted on 07/30/2013 9:55:03 AM PDT by DrewsMum
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To: LibLieSlayer
TAKE THAT YOU SARAH HATERS!!!

Umm...you did notice she's running 12 points behind the Democratic Senate Incumbent in a general election matchup, right?

So someone that is supposedly a viable Presidential candidate is 12 points behind in a poll in her home state?

20 posted on 07/30/2013 9:59:15 AM PDT by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

Give a year to build a data base and I can deliver any poll results you want for the money. There is no such thing as an ‘honest’ poll.


21 posted on 07/30/2013 10:01:28 AM PDT by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: Strategerist

You are correct..... especially after having at one time a 90 percent approval rating across the entire voting public.


22 posted on 07/30/2013 10:28:37 AM PDT by Alex in chains
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To: Strategerist; LibLieSlayer
p-beg

The Democratic CW is that they’d love, love, love to run against Palin because their base hates her and would be sure to pony up for Begich and because independents remain leery of her. Those indie numbers are tough, but if she could shrink the 20 percent of Republicans who prefer him to her, she’d have a chance. That’s not unthinkable in a state as red as Alaska, especially since she’ll have plenty of ad money flowing in from her loyal supporters and some big-name endorsements from the national GOP. McCain owes her a favor after she campaigned for him in 2010; Ted Cruz would doubtless show up for her too, as might Rand Paul. Having her run would be good for the party’s chances to take back the Senate next year too, since lots of Democratic dough that might go to other vulnerable Dem incumbents will be sent north to try to help Begich stop Palin.

Look at it this way: What better chance will she have to reclaim political office than to take him on now? The only obvious alternative is to bide her time and then run as McCain’s replacement in Arizona once he retires. But who knows how long that’ll be, and how risky it’ll be for a staunch conservative by the time he quits given Arizona’s changing demographics. Even if her numbers in Alaska aren’t what they once were, there’s obviously still some goodwill there; her favorables among Republicans, at least, are 65/30. Her supporters are eager for her to run for something again. Why not now?

23 posted on 07/30/2013 10:56:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m inclined to say if she can’t win in AK she can’t win anywhere.


24 posted on 07/30/2013 11:23:55 AM PDT by Jim Noble (When strong, avoid them. Attack their weaknesses. Emerge to their surprise.)
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Comment #25 Removed by Moderator

To: SeekAndFind

Rand Paul and Ted Cruz could show up and help Palin gain all the support that Joe Miller received.

But she is going to need the help of Alaska’s Republicans... Parnell, Treadwell, Murkowski, etc.

They will carry more weight in a general election than Tea Party Senators from out of state.


26 posted on 07/30/2013 11:44:07 AM PDT by Alex in chains
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To: SeekAndFind

Rand Paul and Ted Cruz could show up and help Palin gain all the support that Joe Miller received.

But she is going to need the help of Alaska’s Republicans... Parnell, Treadwell, Murkowski, etc.

They will carry more weight in a general election than Tea Party Senators from out of state.


27 posted on 07/30/2013 11:44:51 AM PDT by Alex in chains
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To: SeekAndFind

How many electoral votes are we short?


28 posted on 07/30/2013 11:47:05 AM PDT by InvisibleChurch (http://thegatwickview.tumblr.com/ -- http://thepurginglutheran.tumblr.com/)
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To: Strategerist
Did you notice that this was a poll and not an election... a poll some 18 months out? I do not live or die by polls alone and I know one thing... if Sarah runs... she will run because she is convinced that she can make a difference and she will know that she can win. I will back her to the fullest extent possible.

I am through doing politics by the numbers. Our Founders never took the easy way out or always bet on the sure thing... and they went up against the most powerful Military Force known to man (at the time) and they defeated them soundly with a Military that should not have been able to win. I also remember strategists telling us that hillary clinton would soundly defeat all challengers and become the next president of the United States. Heck... they are already beating that recycled drum again.

LLS

29 posted on 07/30/2013 11:48:58 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!)
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To: SeekAndFind
It's a slight improvement for Palin from February when we found her trailing Begich 54/38, but she's very much in a hole.

Funny, I hadn't heard she was running as yet.

30 posted on 07/30/2013 12:27:48 PM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Dog catcher is too good for Joke Miller. He lost to a WRITE-IN RINO Alaskan MooCow despite running in a deep red state in a great year for the Tea Party.

Run Sarah Run!


31 posted on 07/30/2013 1:23:57 PM PDT by RB156
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To: gogeo

I would like for you to explain how you came to that conclusion. Projecting your obvious faults of ignorance and mental deficiency onto others is no way to go through life.


32 posted on 07/30/2013 1:58:18 PM PDT by noprogs (Borders, Language, Culture)
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To: noprogs

PDS troll. You have no clue even after all that has been written and published about Pain.


33 posted on 07/30/2013 2:41:13 PM PDT by WilliamRobert
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To: EQAndyBuzz

Yep eight years all living in the same house. I agree.


34 posted on 07/30/2013 2:43:16 PM PDT by WilliamRobert (Ted Cruz is my senator)
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To: Cowboy Bob

I think it would be fantastic for her. It’d update her political resume and add perceived gravitas for those who doubt her heft, while also giving her substantial foreign policy experience.

She could well be the 51st Senator tipping the chamber for the GOP, which is a significant mark right there.

I hope she runs.


35 posted on 07/30/2013 2:46:31 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: WilliamRobert

Much has been published about her indeed. I bought her book and actually read it. Sorry to bust your crush, but as much as I love her too, she has her problems.

She increased taxes and royalties on oil production in AK to reinforce a socialistic wealth redistribution system.

She campaigned for many RINO squishes (Karen Handel in Georgia) whose only qualifications were a vagina and an”R” after their name. Think of the AZ governor who forced Obamacare exchanges through.

Sure, she helped Cruz and helps anyone she endorses. In 2008 I cut McCain’s name off the top of my yard sign, and she is why I voted for them.

Simply by not being part of the GOPe she is popular here, and again I hope she wins a seat in the US Senate, but I think she should endorse the most conservative candidate in the primary, like Cruz and not Handel, and should be a bit tougher in dealing with her opponents, which I AM NOT ONE!


36 posted on 07/30/2013 3:40:37 PM PDT by noprogs (Borders, Language, Culture)
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To: JMsAmerica4ever

This article from Public Policy Polling is extremely anti-Palin and they play with survey figures to make their points against her.

Palin will do something to help reclaim America, be it run for another public office, or as a philosophical and spiritual leader (which the GOP doesn’t have in its leadership right now).

We just have to wait a while to see where she is going, and if we want to follow her.

Personally I like her guts, spirit, determination, and decency. That puts her above most of our so-called politicians in both parties.


37 posted on 07/30/2013 4:13:39 PM PDT by MadMax, the Grinning Reaper
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To: Cowboy Bob

If the Pubbies had any sense they’d boycott everyone but FOX....


38 posted on 07/30/2013 4:16:10 PM PDT by Osage Orange (Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.)
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To: noprogs
"That being said, her inability or unwillingness (you must pick one) to endure and overcome a bunch of hack journalists and vicious state bureaucrats from the backwater that is Alaska by at least finishing her term as governor does not bode well."

Heh, noob.

'08 - Palin worth US$1M
'09 - leaves office
'13 - Palin worth US$12M

39 posted on 07/30/2013 4:18:26 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (Own it.)
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To: SeekAndFind
"PPP surveyed 890 Alaska voters ... automated telephone interviews ... MoE for overall survey +/- 3.3%, +/- 4.4% for GOP portion."
Typical PPP scag...worthless...
40 posted on 07/30/2013 4:24:54 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (Own it.)
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To: StAnDeliver

That does offer a possible explanation.......


41 posted on 07/30/2013 6:07:51 PM PDT by noprogs (Borders, Language, Culture)
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To: noprogs
No problem...this is not a statement which shows any awareness of reality:

That being said, her inability or unwillingness (you must pick one) to endure and overcome a bunch of hack journalists and vicious state bureaucrats from the backwater that is Alaska by at least finishing her term as governor does not bode well...

You make it seem like no big deal. What would be involved in...to use your words..."endure and overcome?"

For extra credit, explain why it does "not bode well."

It was a big deal, and her decision to quit was impressive political jujitsu.

42 posted on 07/30/2013 8:36:44 PM PDT by gogeo (I didn't leave the Republcan Party, it left me.)
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To: noprogs

Palin quit because she was encountering an Alaskan political system post-Presidential election which was nothing but “get Palin”.

That political system was not one which the government paid for. Palin herself, had to absorb costs.

If you’ve been here since 2011 you should probably know this.


43 posted on 07/30/2013 8:40:30 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network
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To: EQAndyBuzz

It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea for her to stay home and keep an eye on the rest of her kids, at least until they 18.


44 posted on 07/30/2013 9:21:11 PM PDT by frickin_frackin
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To: ansel12
...gave us Ted Cruz in Texas.

Everybody I know voted for Ted Cruz and it had nothing to do with Sarah Palin.

We thought he would do what he is doing...not be part of the establishment. Dewhurst had establishment written all over him.

That got Cruz elected.

45 posted on 07/31/2013 7:20:22 AM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I pray Sarah is not sidelined into the Senate.

She will be pigeonholed there.

She is needed on a bigger battlefield.


46 posted on 07/31/2013 7:28:22 AM PDT by exit82 ("The Taliban is on the inside of the building" E. Nordstrom 10-10-12)
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To: lonestar

I can’t help it if you are as ignorant of the political facts about Palin and Cruz as you were in defending and promoting your man Mitt Romney.

The fact is that Ted Cruz is adamant and clear in stating that he would not be in the Senate without Palin.

Speaking at CPAC for instance.
“I would not be in the U.S. Senate today if it were not for Governor Palin,” Cruz said.


47 posted on 07/31/2013 7:56:44 AM PDT by ansel12 ( Santorum appeared on CBS and pronounced George Zimmerman guilty of murder, first degree. March-2012)
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To: frickin_frackin

Welcome to FR.

In your short time here you have managed to stay consistently liberal, and under the radar, congrats.


48 posted on 07/31/2013 8:07:14 AM PDT by ansel12 ( Santorum appeared on CBS and pronounced George Zimmerman guilty of murder, first degree. March-2012)
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To: ansel12
defending and promoting your man Mitt Romney

LOL! I didn't even have a Romney bumper sticker. I did vote for Romney...as I loathe Obama.

The fact is that Ted Cruz is adamant and clear in stating that he would not be in the Senate without Palin.

You think I'm not aware of that? He's nice and appreciative of her support...as we all are. But Cruz would have won without it. Dewhurst helped Cruz more than Palin. Get over it!

Do you live in TX?

49 posted on 07/31/2013 8:37:32 AM PDT by lonestar (It takes a village of idiots to elect a village idiot.)
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To: lonestar

I have run into your pro-Romney arguments before so I know how hard you will fight for Romney, just as hard as you will fight against Palin.

You are dedicated enough to dispute Ted Cruz himself on Palin.

“I would not be in the U.S. Senate today if it were not for Governor Palin,” Cruz said.

May 10— Sarah Palin has weighed in on the fiercely competitive Texas Senate primary race with an endorsement of Ted Cruz, the tea-party-backed candidate announced on his website Thursday.
Mr. Cruz, pulling 26 percent of likely Republican voters in the latest Public Policy Polling survey, is hoping to finish well enough in the May 29 Texas GOP primary to make it into a July 31 runoff with Mr. Dewhurst, who is comfortably in first with 38 percent.

========== Dewhurst leads Cruz in the PPP poll, 46 percent to 29 percent.

The picture is very different when it comes to former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who supports Cruz. PPP, a Democratic-leaning firm, found that 36 percent of Texas Republicans say Palin’s support would make them more likely to back a candidate, while 21 percent consider it a negative.

“In every other state, Sarah Palin’s endorsement has been a game-changer,” Cruz told Texas on the Potomac this afternoon.


50 posted on 07/31/2013 8:54:36 AM PDT by ansel12 ( Santorum appeared on CBS and pronounced George Zimmerman guilty of murder, first degree. March-2012)
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