Skip to comments.What Would Zawahiri Do? (vanity)
Posted on 08/06/2013 9:55:42 AM PDT by Sender
Since we don't know the specifics of the message(s) intercepted, all we have to speculate from is what little was released, along with what we know about AQ.
One thing I have heard from several sources that have seen the messages is that the plot would be large or massive. This could mean one spectacular attack as was 9/11, or many simultaneous attacks in different locations, with the sum of the attacks being large.
We are also told that AQ has some sort of "media plan" for after the event(s) so that it can be replayed on every TV all over the world for maximum propaganda impact.
Then there is speculation about implantable bombs or even clothing bombs soaked in liquid explosives.
While multiple small attacks at many embassies would be a terrible thing, that doesn't seem to me to be the "hollywood" spectacular that AQ wants and has a media plan for. Small implantable bombs or clothing bombs might kill everyone in a room or two, but would hardly be spectacular from outside the building. There would be little to see on TV but smoke and some chaos. Something to guard against, but not IMHO what AQ wants on TV.
One or more large explosions with suitable massive fireballs would be more to their way of thinking. Preferably attacks which would harm US interests, our economy and our security. Something which looks like Rambo and Die Hard to fuel the cheers of the unwashed rage boys who would watch it over and over on their phones.
And so, what would be a target which harms US interests, makes a negative impact on the US (and allies of the US) economies, produces a massive hollywood spectacle for the media, whips up jihadis everywhere, and will be remembered on t-shirts for all time? My best guess would be major petroleum facilities; refineries, tank farms, tankers, pipelines etc. This is just pure speculation on my part, but what do you think?
I think AQ had their Official Al-Zawahiri Impersonator make some calls to phone booths in Yemen, and now they are sitting back having a really good laugh watching the US Government run about like headless chickens.
Do you remember after May of 2011 there were rumors that Al-Zawahiri dropped the dime on OBL?
Sure, that’s plausible. The mob always turns on itself and leaders start taking out rivals to power at some point.
If I was Zawahiri I’d do Disney World.
Binny boys been dead since Tora Bora
Multiple attacks on varied targets stand a greater chance of success. From a tactical point of view, 9/11 was risky, as AQ basically put all their eggs into one basket. Of course, in that case, it worked, but there’s no guarantee of that formula working again.
If you look back at Operation Bojinka, the idea was multiple airplane bombings on their long transpacific routes - had one or two bombs failed to go off as planned, even there the operation would still be a success.
There’s also the possibility of a feint; deliberate misdirection, getting everyone to concentrate their attention on one particular part of the world while an operation, either a single massive attack or multiple smaller attacks inflicting large-scale casualties, takes place. Such is the nature of asymmetric warfare; there’s no guarantee of success on the part of the attacker, just as there’s no absolute guarantee of foiling a potential attack on the part of the defender.
The defender needs to be lucky all the time; the attacker, only once.
Perdogg, think you are on to something.
Must be difficult to be dead and left behind by al-zawahiri.
I agree, Disney World would be a tempting target for multiple reasons.
Or it could mean that Z is pulling the kenyan’s chain.
At the time of Tora Bora the Indian and Chinese press reported that OBL and Sheik Omar had been shot by a guard and that at least one of them was dead. After that Omar eventually turned up but OBL never did. All his communications were received by the USG the same way. At first they were belittled then it was allowed as how they could be authentic. They were never actually verified. Bush needed OBL to stay "alive" to maintain congressional and MSM support for keeping the troops in A'stan. the Kenyan had his own reasons and then needed a "heroic effort" for his upcoming election so he "killed" OBL.
"The passengers were part of a military force guarding oil installations in the province." Hmm.