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Electoral Suicide
The American Thinker ^ | 8-9-13 | Sierra RAyne

Posted on 08/09/2013 6:00:01 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic

Part of the conservative appeal for the 2012 Republican vice-presidential nominee Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) was that he could "do math." He was a "numbers guy." Similarly, former Governor Jeb Bush is from Florida, and should understand very well its electoral demographics -- particularly since his brother George won the 2000 election by a bare margin due solely to what happened in the Sunshine State. These points make it all the more bizarre that both Ryan and Bush would support immigration reform. This type of legislation would sentence the GOP to near permanent electoral oblivion unless the party adopted very liberal positions to match up with the resulting illegal alien infused left-wing demographic shift.

Slate.com has published the following state-by-state map of the estimated American illegal immigrant population, based on data produced by the Pew Hispanic Center. While they are spread out across the nation, illegal immigrants are especially concentrated in Nevada, California, Texas, New Jersey, and Florida, where they accounted for an astonishingly high 7.2%, 6.8%, 6.7%, 6.2%, and 4.5% of these states' total populations in 2010.

California and New Jersey are already Democratic strongholds. Texas is safely Republican (for now). Nevada and Florida remain battlegrounds, as do a number of other key states.

The margins of victory in Florida since 2000 have been 537 votes/0.01% (2000; Bush), 380,978/5.01% (2004; Bush), 236,148/2.81% (2008; Obama), and 74,309/0.88% (2012; Obama). Florida has an estimated 825,000 illegal immigrants. Assuming that these illegal immigrants have a similar age demographic to the general American population (i.e., 76.5% aged 18 and over), that about 60% of these individuals will vote (consistent with the general population), and that 80% will vote Democratic (the same percentage as in the 2008 and 2012 elections for minority voters), legalizing these illegal aliens will add a 227,000-vote Democratic margin...

(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: amnesty; bush; gop; ryan

1 posted on 08/09/2013 6:00:01 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Electoral suicide, cultural suicide...what exactly are we doing about it? Anything?


2 posted on 08/09/2013 6:04:01 AM PDT by HomeAtLast
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To: afraidfortherepublic

The guy who can do math is David Axelrod, who has all the data of voting patterns in the United States down to precinct level. He is, IMO, the architect behind the plan to create a perpetual one-party government in a Soviet-style state. This is but one of several strategies he is using.

And the capitalists are selling him the rope.


3 posted on 08/09/2013 6:05:42 AM PDT by henkster (The 0bama regime isn't a train wreck, it's a B 17 raid on the rail yard.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

But arent they all so-cons like Rand and Rubio said?


4 posted on 08/09/2013 6:07:10 AM PDT by sickoflibs (To GOP : Any path to US Citizenship IS putting them ahead in line. Stop lying about your position.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

One thing the article didn’t touch upon - surprisingly - is that if the illegal immigrant population of the state of Texas is legalized, Texas is basically a permanent loss for the GOP. Take Texas and Florida out of the equation, permanently, and the GOP becomes little more than a regional party. They’re no longer competitive on a national level.


5 posted on 08/09/2013 6:11:51 AM PDT by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic; Hunton Peck; Diana in Wisconsin; P from Sheb; Shady; DonkeyBonker; ...

Ryan and Amnesty

FReep mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list


6 posted on 08/09/2013 6:13:59 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: HomeAtLast

Get car door locks that are silent.


7 posted on 08/09/2013 6:14:18 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: afraidfortherepublic

It’s not suicide if you look at it from the GOP elites view. They hate their base and couldn’t care less about Tea Party/Social Conservatives...etc. s that they couldn’t care less with we leave the party. Yeah they may be a minority party because of this but in Washington DC there is no such thing as a true minority - they will still hold power in some form and they will still have the crony big donors so that in most elections they can spend tons of money to tear down the Tea Party/ Freedom Party candidates and win most of them. As long as the gravy train continues in their eyes then they are safe and they believe that they will finally be liked by the media in these interviews and cocktail parties


8 posted on 08/09/2013 6:16:11 AM PDT by Bigtigermike
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To: henkster

Johnson of Wisconsin is also one who is not afraid of Math whe it comes to spending. But, he is just not seeing the light on amnesty. Perhaps it is because Wisonsin is not so greatly impacted.


9 posted on 08/09/2013 6:16:30 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: henkster

Johnson of Wisconsin is also one who is not afraid of Math whe it comes to spending. But, he is just not seeing the light on amnesty. Perhaps it is because Wisonsin is not so greatly impacted.


10 posted on 08/09/2013 6:16:31 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: Bigtigermike
Exactly, this is intentional and Rush has been on to this for a while. The GOP elites are ashamed of the base and have nothing but contempt for them.

That's why the call to "take back" or "reform" the GOP seems to futile to me. The GOP is not a conservative party and never has been.

11 posted on 08/09/2013 6:19:00 AM PDT by turducken
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

Florida is still a solid right-of-center state and local politics state. Democrats only turn out for national elections, because they feel that all politics are national. Meanwhile, states rights are making a comeback.


12 posted on 08/09/2013 6:21:18 AM PDT by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: henkster

Established corporations will do well under Dem control. It is a gov corporate partnership that will increase regs and taxes that hurt the middle size and small size companies. This way large corporations will kill off future competition. In socialist Europe, there are established large corporations that exist and flourish. They found a way to make profits and accommodate socialism. The only way this system can fail is Soviet style where the gov takes all of the profits. Amnesty will hurt two Dem groups immediately. Blacks who will face Hispanic immigrants coming into their neighborhoods, compete for low end jobs and entitlements. The other group will be American Jews who will face a growing and hostile population of Arab/Muslim immigrants. Whites can nullify Hispanic power, because Hispanics will intermarry with other groups. Blacks and Jews try to keep separate, and in the world of new immigrants they will regret supporting Amnesty.


13 posted on 08/09/2013 6:21:56 AM PDT by Fee
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To: afraidfortherepublic
The cheap labour lobby keeps crying that "they are coming here to get jobs" or "they are doing jobs Americans won't do!"

So why is it that the state with the highest percentage job growth in the nation and some of the toughest jobs (ever try wrestling with heavy machinery when it is 40 below and the wind is blowing in from the northwest?) has almost zero illegal aliens?

I'm speaking of North Dakota, which has some of the toughest jobs and living conditions in the country. Yet Americans are going there in droves to take the jobs because the pay is decent.

14 posted on 08/09/2013 6:26:24 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: Vigilanteman

And look at South Carolina. Surrounded by states with noteworthy illegal alien populations, it has almost none. Enforcement? I’ll have to ask my son who lives there.


15 posted on 08/09/2013 6:30:35 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Murder/suicide.


16 posted on 08/09/2013 6:30:59 AM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

Take Texas and Florida out of the equation, permanently, and the GOP becomes little more than a regional party.

...indeed...interior Deep South and interior West...SC, GA, AL,MS, AR, MO,TN,KY,ID,WY,UT, N.DK. S.DK,NE,KN,OK...I’m too lazy to the do the electoral college math on this but it’s somewhere in the mid 150’s, I believe...at which point, we concentrate solely on state and local politics...


17 posted on 08/09/2013 6:36:11 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: Fee

Blacks and Jews try to keep separate, and in the world of new immigrants they will regret supporting Amnesty.

...and you can bet your house that both these elements will continue voting for the party of unrestrained immigration...


18 posted on 08/09/2013 6:40:55 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: Bigtigermike

Sadly, what you said seems spot on.


19 posted on 08/09/2013 6:41:58 AM PDT by Obadiah (Inside of every Liberal beats the heart of a fascist yearning to reveal their true nature.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

“that if the illegal immigrant population of the state of Texas is legalized, Texas is basically a permanent loss for the GOP.”

And that is exactly why the Commurats have put on an all out effort to get out their voters in Texas along with legalizing the illegals.


20 posted on 08/09/2013 6:45:47 AM PDT by animal172 (My new hero....Trey Gowdy)
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To: IrishBrigade

..indeed...interior Deep South and interior West...SC, GA, AL,MS, AR, MO,TN,KY,ID,WY,UT, N.DK. S.DK,NE,KN,OK...I’m too lazy to the do the electoral college math on this but it’s somewhere in the mid 150’s, I believe...at which point, we concentrate solely on state and local politics...
___________________________________

Yes, about 150-160 EC votes; and at that point, the GOP simply cannot win at the national level when it comes to Presidential elections at least, so they’ll concentrate, as you said, on state and local politics. They’ll be confined with the Deep South and Intermountain Western states as their power base.


21 posted on 08/09/2013 6:48:18 AM PDT by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: animal172

The loss of Texas in any event would represent a dramatic electoral shift against the GOP; how the national party leadership would respond to such an event is beyond my powers of prognostication.


22 posted on 08/09/2013 6:50:38 AM PDT by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

I think this is an overstatement. The beauty of a two party system is that sooner or later, people get so dissatisfied with the status quo and give the other guys a shot.

The thing is, as time goes on, those lucid spells become more infrequent.


23 posted on 08/09/2013 6:50:48 AM PDT by Ted Grant
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To: AnAmericanAbroad
Take Texas and Florida out of the equation, permanently, and the GOP becomes little more than a regional party. They’re no longer competitive on a national level.

The question then becomes: would this be a bad thing?
Considering how the Republican Party is at the national level — I think this would be one of the few silver linings. What use is a party that does absolutely nothing that furthers its party-planks? (And at the national level, that is an apt description.)

24 posted on 08/09/2013 6:52:20 AM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: Ted Grant
So we end up oscillating between John McCain and Barack Obama.

The two party system does not guarantee variety in political philosophies. I would argue that with the money and power now in the hands of a political establishment, a mere two-party system guarantees a homogeneous approach -- one which supports the political establishment and only allows vague shades of difference.

I want a third party.

25 posted on 08/09/2013 6:54:53 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (21st century. I'm not a fan.)
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To: ClearCase_guy
I want a third party.

I second the sentiment — the selection of Romney was, to me, a big flag that there is no difference in the Republican and Democrat parties (at least on the national level), and that's why I voted for Gary Johnson.

26 posted on 08/09/2013 6:58:04 AM PDT by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: Ted Grant

One thing that could happen is that, as you said, people become dissatisfied with the status-quo over the long term; I could see the emergence of a new national party at some point. Much as the modern Republicans replaced the Whig Party, so another party could replace the Republicans.

There’s been talk in a good many circles of the need for a third party, as both the existing parties are not wholly representative of a broad segment of the overall electorate.


27 posted on 08/09/2013 6:59:01 AM PDT by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
FWIW, my younger brother had to shutter a construction business he owned in South Carolina. He employed locals and paid fair wages.

He couldn't compete with the cookie cutter outfits which hired illegals and paid cash under the table. Of course, they eventually lost their jobs as well when the economy went in the crapper. I suspect Georgia and North Carolina both pay better unempoloyment and welfare benefits than South Carolina.

28 posted on 08/09/2013 7:10:35 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

Texas will go blue soon.

I have family from Texas. They have been there since my great grandfather’s day.

They fled south Texas for Nebraska a few years. They were one of the few remaining non Hispanics in the area. This was a place where they have farmed for a hundred years.


29 posted on 08/09/2013 7:32:46 AM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Revolt is coming.


30 posted on 08/09/2013 7:48:00 AM PDT by Biggirl (“Go, do not be afraid, and serve”-Pope Francis)
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To: redgolum

Texas will probably go blue in the not-too-distant future; I’d say by 2024, 2028 at the latest....maybe sooner, but I’d say 2024 is a safe guess.


31 posted on 08/09/2013 8:00:54 AM PDT by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

There is an important proviso to the Republicans about Mexican-Americans. This is, that they are *not* black, nor do they behave like blacks.

That is, you can’t just go in and promise them huge amounts of welfare, benefits, and other free stuff, and get their vote. They got decades of that in Mexico, so are very cynical about it.

Instead, your best pitch to Mexican-Americans is the same for non-Hispanic whites.

Jobs, lower taxes, conservative social policies, treating them equally *before the law*, really hit home with them.

Even the subject of immigration from Mexico gets a broad spectrum of response. Yes, if they have family there who want to go North, they are in favor of it. However, letting other Mexican citizens in, not so much. Likewise, if they have a split family, some legal, some not, they want the illegals to become Americans.


32 posted on 08/09/2013 8:50:06 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Be Brave! Fear is just the opposite of Nar!)
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To: Vigilanteman

“So why is it that the state with the highest percentage job growth in the nation and some of the toughest jobs (ever try wrestling with heavy machinery when it is 40 below and the wind is blowing in from the northwest?) has almost zero illegal aliens?”

I remember watching an episode of “Deadliest Catch.” One of the crab boats was approaching the island where their processing facility was. They had to hail the dock in Spanish.


33 posted on 08/09/2013 9:00:41 AM PDT by PLMerite (Shut the Beyotch Down! Burn, baby, burn!)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

The studies from 2012 (iirc) show that Hispanics #1 issue at the polls, the reason so many voted for Obama, was Obamacare. Not immigration or other lesser issues.


34 posted on 08/09/2013 9:02:35 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
What you've described is basically legal Hispanics and those that aspire for the American dream, IOW the descendants of those who were enslaved by the Aztecs.

The descendants of the Aztecs, on the other hand, vote for free stuff and seek to do to the non-Aztecs as their forefathers did.

There are, of course, literal descendants of Aztecs who behave more like the legal Hispanics, and vice versa. I'm speaking of the ideological descendants.

35 posted on 08/09/2013 9:20:02 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

If conservatives stayed home in 2012, just wait until 2014.


36 posted on 08/09/2013 10:16:03 AM PDT by AdaGray (Primary Them All)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Time for a million citizen march on dc.


37 posted on 08/09/2013 1:53:10 PM PDT by kneehurts
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