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This State Is Democrats' Best Chance to Pick Up a Senate Seat
New Republic ^ | August 15, 2013 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 08/15/2013 2:54:56 PM PDT by NotYourAverageDhimmi

Democrats are in danger of getting disappointed in Kentucky, where early poll numbers belie McConnell's big advantages. If people are really buying Wendy Davis and a "blue Texas," Democrats might be doubly disappointed. Where Democrats could end up pleasantly surprised is Georgia. The conditions for an upset might be brewing in the Peach State, where Saxby Chambliss is retiring and Democrats have stealthily become close to competing on a more regular basis. It might even be a better bet for Democrats in 2014 than Kentucky.

I was initially skeptical of whether Democrats could compete in Georgia in 2014. So skeptical that I was initially unsure about whether I even agreed with Harry Enten’s assertion that Georgia was a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats than Kentucky, where I’m unabashedly pessimistic about Grimes. The main source of my pessimism? 2014 is a midterm election, when black turnout would be expected to drop. Consider the difference between the general and run-off Senate elections in 2008, when Chambliss went from a 3 point edge to 15 point rout. Since Georgia’s white vote is pretty “inelastic,” it’s hard to see how a Democratic candidate was going to overcome a 15 point deficit statewide.

But Georgia's black turnout wasn’t so bad in 2010, despite a bad national climate and without a competitive federal election. According to the Georgia Secretary of State, the black share of the electorate only declined slightly, from 30 percent in 2008 to 28.3 percent in 2010. The white share of the electorate increased from 64.1 to 66.3 percent. That drop-off might hurt a Democratic candidate by net-3 points, but that’s not the massive gap suggested by 2008 run-offs. Part of the explanation: turnout was 20 percent higher in 2010 than the 2008 run-offs.

Demographic change helps counter some of the drop-off.

(Excerpt) Read more at newrepublic.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Georgia
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; ga2014

1 posted on 08/15/2013 2:54:56 PM PDT by NotYourAverageDhimmi
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To: NotYourAverageDhimmi

If this happens, it will be because the GA GOP did not live up to its promise and its potential. It would though greatly please GA Jimmy.


2 posted on 08/15/2013 2:57:55 PM PDT by Theodore R. (The grand pooh-bahs have spoken: "It's Jebbie's turn!")
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To: NotYourAverageDhimmi

Since people are talking about it, it won’t happen.


3 posted on 08/15/2013 3:02:00 PM PDT by Perdogg (Cruz-Paul 2016)
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To: NotYourAverageDhimmi

I’d say that New Jersey is the Dems best chance to pick up a seat. This is way behind them.


4 posted on 08/15/2013 3:07:26 PM PDT by 0.E.O
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To: 0.E.O

The dems already have new jersey. Christy just hasn’t announced he is changing his R over to a D.


5 posted on 08/15/2013 3:10:10 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: NotYourAverageDhimmi

With the millions of “Holder’s People” in the State of Georgia, coupled with massive Vote Fraud, I am betting Georgia will elect a (D), no matter who runs. On the (R) side, there will be a GOP-E pick, which is the same as a (D) by any other name (same as Chambliss was).


6 posted on 08/15/2013 3:11:25 PM PDT by traditional1 (Amerika.....Providing public housing for the Mulatto Messiah)
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To: 0.E.O

New Jersey would be a hold


7 posted on 08/15/2013 3:15:10 PM PDT by Perdogg (Cruz-Paul 2016)
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To: Perdogg

Chiesa is a Republican. He’s not running in the special election, and Booker will probably get the seat back for them.


8 posted on 08/15/2013 3:18:39 PM PDT by 0.E.O
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To: NotYourAverageDhimmi

I say make a push for Tom Graves to run for that seat. His house district will elect the next Conservative in line.


9 posted on 08/15/2013 3:21:59 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: HANG THE EXPENSE

“The dems already have new jersey. Christy just hasn’t announced he is changing his R over to a D.”

If Booker was running for Governor instead of Senator, he would clean Crispy’s clock.


10 posted on 08/15/2013 3:24:35 PM PDT by headstamp 2 (What would Scooby do?)
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To: NotYourAverageDhimmi
I am from Georgia and I am worried about the quality of the candidates. They are three old congressmen who have been largely faceless backbenchers.I think the youngest one of them(Kingston) is about 64. Broun the most Conservative of them is also compared to Todd Akin. Karen Handel the former sos is a retread having lost previously and David Perdue and wealthy self funder may be the savior or the biggest bomb. I think we should do what the Yankees did when Dimaggio was retiring, go down to the boonies and find another Mickey Mantle instead of taking all of the chances we are doing in selecting from the candidates who come to us.
11 posted on 08/15/2013 3:27:18 PM PDT by amnestynone (Lindsey Graham is feckless, duplicitous, treacherous, double dealing backstabbing Corksucker.)
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To: amnestynone

On a side note, if Kingston loses, am I still stuck w him as a Rep?


12 posted on 08/15/2013 3:36:37 PM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: 0.E.O

Dems already have both seats in Jersey.


13 posted on 08/15/2013 3:42:35 PM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (The reason we own guns is to protect ourselves from those wanting to take our guns from us.)
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To: Fantasywriter

No. He can’t run for both offices at the same time.


14 posted on 08/15/2013 3:55:39 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: Theodore R.

They will turn out twice to elect a RINO but they wont turn out in a midterm to get 51% of the vote for a conservative?

The gun grab is alienating Democrats. Also Georgia has passed state immigration law. They will want to elect someone who understand amnesty guts state immigration law.

In 2006 McCaskill got the same as Saxby Chambliss did in 2008. McCaskill was not terrible back then.

http://www.debbieschlussel.com/3082/a-sane-democrat-sen-claire-mccaskill-to-the-rescue-on-ice-princess-nom/


15 posted on 08/15/2013 4:08:58 PM PDT by ObamahatesPACoal
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To: EQAndyBuzz

See reply 8.


16 posted on 08/15/2013 4:51:56 PM PDT by 0.E.O
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Thank you. I have had numerous interactions w Kingston & I am just sick to death of his MO. He treats every question/request I send as if it came from an ignorant 14 yo. Politically, he is Boehner’s Mini Me. As a senator, he’d likely be a carbon copy of RINO Chambliss. Why true conservatives are so hard to come by, I have no idea.


17 posted on 08/15/2013 6:42:53 PM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: Fantasywriter

He’s a career politician. 8 years in the GA House, and what will be 22 years in the U.S. House (and has long since broken the record of the good ole boy Democrats that preceded him going back to the end of Reconstruction in that district). Simply put, he’s long since passed his “good by” date. And now he wants to top it off with 18 years more in the U.S. Senate (which will take him to 78 years old in 2033).

Up here in TN, we’re similarly trying to blast our (what will be 75-year old) senior Senator Lamar! out of office next year. Another part-of-the-problem big gubmint RINOs.


18 posted on 08/15/2013 7:10:09 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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19 posted on 08/15/2013 7:13:00 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Big Government RINOs are a huge part of the problem. While I’d love to see Boehner gone, his seat looks pretty safe. But wdn’t it put fear into the hearts of at least a few of these corrupt ruling elites if McConnell lost to a Tea Partier?

Hope you succeed in unseating Lamar. Unless a few of these past-their-good-by dates get primaried out, the problems will simply intensify & expand.


20 posted on 08/15/2013 7:23:27 PM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: Fantasywriter
Of course, I knew he'd be utterly useless once he made it to the Senate, and he hasn't let me down on that score. He used scores of establishment money to buy the primary in 2002 out from under Conservative hero Congressman Ed Bryant. Lamar! ran like he was a Democrat incumbent in 2008 (and I voted 3rd party instead). We have one of the most Conservative GOP legislatures in the nation, the Democrats are all but dead except in the urban areas and VRA (Black) districts, and yet we're stuck with 2 RINOs more appropriate for Massachusetts.

And, yes, McConnell has to go, too (and Boehner). They've already morphed into the one-party big gubmint cabal. They hate Conservatives more than they do their Democrat buddies. It's time we had a SECOND party in Washington for a change. It's been missing for almost 20 years.

21 posted on 08/15/2013 7:37:04 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Everything you said was so true. The DC GOP establishment fights the Tea Party harder than they’ve ever fought the Dems. Then you go to RealClearPolitics, & see that congressional approval is around 15%, & what’s more GOP approval is lower than Dem approval. It should be so easy to vote these reach-across-the-aislers out. Yet it so seldom happens.

What we need is a deep-pocketed person or cabal willing & able to start a national GOP movement to get rid of the RINO deadwood. The Tea Party does what it can, but we cd sure use a person like Trump [not Trump, but somebody like him] to spearhead a major push to primary the RINOs. Even if only a few were toppled, the fear wd finally knock a little sense into the rest.


22 posted on 08/15/2013 8:53:54 PM PDT by Fantasywriter
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Kingston is the DC Establishment favorite. Gingrey has the name id in the Metro Atlanta area. One big king maker in the GA Senate would be Newt. He still has goodwill among the GA GOP insiders. Newt won GA despite bombing out in the South last year. Also Jack Kingston stood by him during the 2012 primaries when Newt’s advisers quit on him. Thus don’t be surprised if Newt returns the favor by backing Kingston.


23 posted on 08/16/2013 4:12:48 PM PDT by yongin (You can't have a truce on social issues when the IRS is taking sides.)
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To: yongin; Impy; BillyBoy
I somewhat lean to Broun, since the other two Reps seem "meh" to me. But Broun's problem is also one of age, as he is older than Kingston or Gingrey. He'll be just months short of 69 at the start of the 2015 session. That will actually be 11 years older than Sam Nunn was when he retired after 24 years in that body.

That would almost make him a lame duck at the start and questionable whether he'd be up to serving 2 terms that most consider a necessity to being effective. Then again, he could make the pledge to just serve 1 term so he won't have to worry about fundraisers or kissing establishment tuchus and commit fully to the job and the Conservative agenda.

24 posted on 08/16/2013 4:24:37 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; yongin; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; Viennacon

The poll showing Broun trailing the rat big is terrifying. I doubt any of the others would lose.

I gotta go with Karen Handel over these flawed Congressman.


25 posted on 08/16/2013 4:29:08 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy; fieldmarshaldj

Karen Handel did win statewide, so thats a plus. But she is having trouble raising money. When Handel ran for Governor in 2010, she touted herself as the next Nikki Haley. She was the favorite against Nathan Deal. But lost the runoff by less than 1%, because Deal, with the help of religious conservatives, accused her of being too lenient on abortion and gays rights. Will religious right still be suspicious of Handel?


26 posted on 08/16/2013 5:06:36 PM PDT by yongin (You can't have a truce on social issues when the IRS is taking sides.)
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To: Impy; fieldmarshaldj; yongin; Clintonfatigued; Viennacon

I support Handel and Gingrey, in that order (at least today; tomorrow I may prefer Gingrey). I hope those are the two that make the runoff and that the best candidate wins. Interestingly, either one would be a groundbreaking U.S. Senator from GA: Handel would become the first woman ever elected to the U.S. Senate from GA (and the first female Republican elected to either house of Congress from GA), while Gingrey would become (unless I’m gravely mistaken) the first Catholic U.S. Senator from GA.

And I will support *anyone* over Broun in the runoff (if, God forbid, he makes it), since I think that Broun will lose to the Spawn of Nunn. Democrats will keep running that video of him saying “You see, there are a lot of scientific data that I’ve found out as a scientist that actually show that this is really a young Earth. I don’t believe that the earth’s but about 9,000 years old. I believe it was created in six days as we know them,” and suburban Atlantans will flock to Nunn. Oh, and the fact that Broun is the favorite of the Paulistinian crowd does not sweeten the deal any for me, either.


27 posted on 08/16/2013 8:03:54 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; Impy; BillyBoy; yongin; Clintonfatigued; Viennacon

I just discovered something else. Gingrey is even older than Broun (he’s older than Gingrich, even Fred Thompson and a year older than Saxby Chambliss !). He would turn 73 (!) in his first year in the Senate. Does he seriously think he can commit to two terms ? We need to be running people 30 or even 40 years younger, not all these old guys (at least Handel will be just short of 53). Sam Nunn was all of 34 when he won Richard Russell’s old Senate seat. Gingrey could’ve run that year (1972), as he was 30.


28 posted on 08/16/2013 8:23:31 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

You’re voicing some of the concerns I’ve had over Broun, but he seems the favorite among Freepers.


29 posted on 08/16/2013 9:14:40 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: yongin

Handel needs to be grilled on social issues. Can’t have another Portman slipping through.


30 posted on 08/16/2013 9:17:20 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon; yongin

By all means hold Handel’s feet to the fire and find out where she stands, but I’d be very surprised if she wasn’t an across-the-board social conservative. The fact that a primary opponent accused her of not being a true social conservative has to be taken with almost as many frains of salt as when a Democrat opponent calls the Republican an extremist; remember when Vernon Robinson accused Virginia Foxx of being a social liberal?


31 posted on 08/17/2013 7:01:25 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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To: AnAmericanMother; Broker; clee1; ctdonath2; dansangel; Dick Bachert; DJlaysitup; epow; ...

GA ping. They’re talking about us!


32 posted on 08/17/2013 7:28:32 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: Perdogg

As I said before your chances of getting killed in a drone strike are better than this GA senate seat going Democrat. Its not going to happen. We are hopefully going to elect Dr. Paul Broun, a hair on fire conservative.


33 posted on 08/17/2013 8:35:40 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

Yes. I remember. Is there a primary debate scheduled at all?


34 posted on 08/17/2013 8:56:55 AM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

No idea if they’ve published a debate calendar.

BTW, I supported and contributed to Vernon Robinson in that primary and in the runoff against Foxx, and became disappointed with Robinson’s hyperbolic ads as Foxx compiled a nearly perfect social-conservative voting record.


35 posted on 08/17/2013 10:16:21 AM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

“He’ll be just months short of 69 at the start of the 2015 session”

Wow! I’ve never thought to look and just assumed he was in his 50’s with the enthusiasm he projects. I love listening to him speak.


36 posted on 08/17/2013 10:55:05 AM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; Impy; GOPsterinMA; randita; Sun; BillyBoy; yongin; Viennacon; ...

My head tells me that Karen Handel is the candidate if we want to win. Her crusade against Planned Parenthood while working for the Komen Foundation was brave and almost successful.


37 posted on 08/17/2013 1:38:18 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (Muslims are a people of tolerance, life,and peace, and if you don't agree, they'll murder you)
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To: AuH2ORepublican; Viennacon

I didn’t back Vernon Robinson in subsequent primaries because of that. He called Fox Hillary Clinton, fail.


38 posted on 08/19/2013 2:56:38 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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