Skip to comments.This State Is Democrats' Best Chance to Pick Up a Senate Seat
Posted on 08/15/2013 2:54:56 PM PDT by NotYourAverageDhimmi
Democrats are in danger of getting disappointed in Kentucky, where early poll numbers belie McConnell's big advantages. If people are really buying Wendy Davis and a "blue Texas," Democrats might be doubly disappointed. Where Democrats could end up pleasantly surprised is Georgia. The conditions for an upset might be brewing in the Peach State, where Saxby Chambliss is retiring and Democrats have stealthily become close to competing on a more regular basis. It might even be a better bet for Democrats in 2014 than Kentucky.
I was initially skeptical of whether Democrats could compete in Georgia in 2014. So skeptical that I was initially unsure about whether I even agreed with Harry Entens assertion that Georgia was a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats than Kentucky, where Im unabashedly pessimistic about Grimes. The main source of my pessimism? 2014 is a midterm election, when black turnout would be expected to drop. Consider the difference between the general and run-off Senate elections in 2008, when Chambliss went from a 3 point edge to 15 point rout. Since Georgias white vote is pretty inelastic, its hard to see how a Democratic candidate was going to overcome a 15 point deficit statewide.
But Georgia's black turnout wasnt so bad in 2010, despite a bad national climate and without a competitive federal election. According to the Georgia Secretary of State, the black share of the electorate only declined slightly, from 30 percent in 2008 to 28.3 percent in 2010. The white share of the electorate increased from 64.1 to 66.3 percent. That drop-off might hurt a Democratic candidate by net-3 points, but thats not the massive gap suggested by 2008 run-offs. Part of the explanation: turnout was 20 percent higher in 2010 than the 2008 run-offs.
Demographic change helps counter some of the drop-off.
(Excerpt) Read more at newrepublic.com ...
If this happens, it will be because the GA GOP did not live up to its promise and its potential. It would though greatly please GA Jimmy.
Since people are talking about it, it won’t happen.
I’d say that New Jersey is the Dems best chance to pick up a seat. This is way behind them.
The dems already have new jersey. Christy just hasn’t announced he is changing his R over to a D.
With the millions of “Holder’s People” in the State of Georgia, coupled with massive Vote Fraud, I am betting Georgia will elect a (D), no matter who runs. On the (R) side, there will be a GOP-E pick, which is the same as a (D) by any other name (same as Chambliss was).
New Jersey would be a hold
Chiesa is a Republican. He’s not running in the special election, and Booker will probably get the seat back for them.
I say make a push for Tom Graves to run for that seat. His house district will elect the next Conservative in line.
“The dems already have new jersey. Christy just hasnt announced he is changing his R over to a D.”
If Booker was running for Governor instead of Senator, he would clean Crispy’s clock.
On a side note, if Kingston loses, am I still stuck w him as a Rep?
Dems already have both seats in Jersey.
No. He can’t run for both offices at the same time.
They will turn out twice to elect a RINO but they wont turn out in a midterm to get 51% of the vote for a conservative?
The gun grab is alienating Democrats. Also Georgia has passed state immigration law. They will want to elect someone who understand amnesty guts state immigration law.
In 2006 McCaskill got the same as Saxby Chambliss did in 2008. McCaskill was not terrible back then.
See reply 8.
Thank you. I have had numerous interactions w Kingston & I am just sick to death of his MO. He treats every question/request I send as if it came from an ignorant 14 yo. Politically, he is Boehner’s Mini Me. As a senator, he’d likely be a carbon copy of RINO Chambliss. Why true conservatives are so hard to come by, I have no idea.
He’s a career politician. 8 years in the GA House, and what will be 22 years in the U.S. House (and has long since broken the record of the good ole boy Democrats that preceded him going back to the end of Reconstruction in that district). Simply put, he’s long since passed his “good by” date. And now he wants to top it off with 18 years more in the U.S. Senate (which will take him to 78 years old in 2033).
Up here in TN, we’re similarly trying to blast our (what will be 75-year old) senior Senator Lamar! out of office next year. Another part-of-the-problem big gubmint RINOs.
Big Government RINOs are a huge part of the problem. While I’d love to see Boehner gone, his seat looks pretty safe. But wdn’t it put fear into the hearts of at least a few of these corrupt ruling elites if McConnell lost to a Tea Partier?
Hope you succeed in unseating Lamar. Unless a few of these past-their-good-by dates get primaried out, the problems will simply intensify & expand.
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