Skip to comments.Global oil price will decline through end of 2013, EIA forecasts
Posted on 08/23/2013 8:23:17 AM PDT by thackney
The global benchmark price of crude oil will fall through the end of 2013, as the United States continues to pump more oil and cut its need for imports, the federal Energy Information Administration forecast in a report this week.
The price decline would reverse oils trend during the first half of the year. Brent crude averaged $108 per barrel in July, compared to a second-quarter average of less than $103 per barrel. Unplanned disruptions of the crude supply, including pipeline attacks in Iraq and labor protests in Libya, have put pressure on the price in recent months, along with growing oil demand from refineries, according to the EIA.
Unexpected events reduced oil production by 2.7 million barrels per day in July, the largest such drop since January 2009, the agency said. Meanwhile, the amount of crude processed by refineries worldwide grew to 78.3 million barrels per day in July, compared to a second-quarter average of 74.8 million barrels per day.
However, EIA projects that demand will decline during the fall, with refineries worldwide running about 76.2 million barrels of crude per day in September and 75.9 million barrels per day in October.
That, along with the United States growing domestic supply, will drop the Brent crude price to an average $104 per barrel in September and $102 in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Oil production in the United States has soared to the highest rate since 1992, cutting the worlds largest oil consumers need for oil imports by more than 20 percent since 2007.
The EIA forecasts that non-OPEC countries will produce 55 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of the year, up 1.3 million barrels per day from the second quarter.
Yeah....and Obama’s gas prices will go down, too...
Simone can’t bring himself (herself?) to say it so I’ll say it, Thank God for fracking.
“Oil production in the United States has soared to the highest rate since 1992, cutting the worlds largest oil consumers need for oil imports by more than 20 percent since 2007.”
It’s amazing what American ingenuity can accomplish, despite the policies of our current regime.
Holding my breath
This could increase 4x if government would A) get out of the way and B) Protect the industry from the EPA and Environmentalist.
BTW - Indiana will be shutting down a few more coal plants thanks to the EPA. Thank heavens we have all those windmills in NW Indiana.
$108 -> $104 -> $102
Not a major change, so possible.
Given what’s going on in the middle east,you could argue prices could be a fair bit higher by year end.
Global consumption of oil has been rising for a few years and is expected to continue to rise.
Since most of the retail gas price is directly related to this lunatic bio fuels nightmare, it would take a HUGE drop in the price of crude to help us much at the pump.
If they dropped the ethanol BS tomorrow it would inject a nice jolt into the economy. (never gonna happen, way too much corruption involved)
My opinion, anyway.
Any surprise what?
She's dark-skinned. Good for her.
I read the article. I don't see anything political about it one way or the other.
EIA Expects Brent Prices to Decline through End of 2013 Despite Current Supply Disruptions
The majority of the price impact on gasoline comes from the cost of crude oil.
I exaggerated by saying “most”. But I don’t think that graphic is truly representative, a little oversimplified. Where is the cost of ethanol figured in? The cost of the penalties the refiners pay the feds for not using the mandated additives that curiously don’t exist?
The cost the dozens of mandated regional and seasonal blends? Is that part of the 12%? I don’t know.
Although it’s not showing in the retail cost, how about the price each of us *working taxpayers* antes up for the subsidies of the biofuels? Higher food costs? The snowballing costs of this whole biofuels hoax permeates our whole economy to varying degrees.
It is definitely simplified. For starters, each of those other categories, especially the crude oil, contains a significant amount of taxes. It is more of the price per gallon as it moves through the following stages:
leaving the wholesale loading rack.
The taxes only are the taxes added onto finished gasoline.
I believe most of the ethanol and specific recipes are done at the blenders downstream of the refinery, but at some refineries, it is done on site. Many refineries just produce gasoline blending products, not finished motor gasoline.
Unless there are two journalists with the same name, she came from the San Francisco Chronicle.
That might be a hint to her politics....:^)
What do you find political in this report. It is basically a regurgitation of data and analysis of the Energy Information Administration. A lot of papers repackage their info to be part of their energy related news.
Perhaps I misinterpreted your "Any surprise?" comment.
The only thing I find surprising is that the SF Chronicle employs a reporter who can do straight reporting about energy.
If anything, her apparent racial make-up makes me happy. She seems to have her head screwed on the right way as far as I can tell.
Employed, not employs. She left San Francisco for Houston.
Her Trayvon tweets show her generic politics...