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To: Hoodat
This looks like a win-win for all the players all away around except for Saudi Arabia and its proxies fighting against Iran's proxies in Syria.

Under the terms of such a deal Assad would relinquish chemical weapons which are of marginal utility militarily and of distinct liability in terms of triggering an international reaction which causes Western powers to bring down the Assad regime. In return for this, Asad buys months and months of time to negotiate the terms of the deal and to submit to the complicated on the ground inspection necessary to verify the deal. If the German intelligence intercepts to the effect that the poison gas was used by rogue elements of the Assad forces are accurate, it is clear that Asad might not actually be able to account for or deliver all such weapons. In any event the process of verification will be difficult and protracted which time the Russians will exploit.

Meanwhile, Russia will gain diplomatic prestige and, more importantly, cover to expand its naval and military presence in the Levant. It will undoubtedly vastly increase its weapons supplied to Asad which he will use to prosecute his civil war. It is probable that the Russians will become more involved in aiding Assad beyond merely supplying weapons, although they will undoubtedly now supply more sophisticated weapons, and they will probably supply technicians etc.

To the degree that the United States had as its policy the destruction of the Assad regime, that policy has been markedly sent back. Obama will be happy, however, because he has been extricated from a self-inflicted humiliation and will crow about removing weapons of mass destruction from Syria and making the world safer etc. If the United States intends to supply weapons to the rebels that will be made far more dangerous by the increased presence of the Russians. Expect the Russians to flex naval muscles in the Mediterranean basin which makes the world a far more dangerous place, not safer as Obama will claim.

The Russia-Iran-Syria axis will have been strengthened and the Saudis will feel even more isolated and threatened because the precedent has been established that Russia will protect its client states against American threats of bombing and can now do so to protect Iran. Expect that to come in good time. Therefore, although Obama himself will be pleased with this deal, the national interests of the United States have been tragically sent back.

Iran is now to be protected by the Russian nuclear umbrella in its quest for the atomic bomb and there is virtually no chance now of denying Iran the bomb.This represents one of the greatest strategic disasters for the United States since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Recently Israel has been attempting a diplomatic opening with Russia and that might come in handy now that Russia's military will be expanding quite literally on Israel's doorstep.

The long-term consequences of Russia's intrusions into the Middle East cauldron severely reduce both American leverage and Israeli security, while increasing prospects for continuing terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

The irony of all of this is that Obama will come out smelling like a rose.


23 posted on 09/09/2013 9:30:20 PM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: nathanbedford

“The irony of all of this is that Obama will come out smelling like a rose.”

At best he’ll avoid being totally embarrassed, but he’ll be seen as a total loser worldwide - his red lines will mean nothing from now on. Putin will be the winner, as well as Assad.


33 posted on 09/09/2013 10:19:00 PM PDT by aquila48
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To: nathanbedford
The Russia-Iran-Syria axis will have been strengthened and the Saudis will feel even more isolated and threatened because the precedent has been established that Russia will protect its client states against American threats of bombing and can now do so to protect Iran. Expect that to come in good time. Therefore, although Obama himself will be pleased with this deal, the national interests of the United States have been tragically sent back.

Iran is now to be protected by the Russian nuclear umbrella in its quest for the atomic bomb and there is virtually no chance now of denying Iran the bomb.This represents one of the greatest strategic disasters for the United States since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Now, that is an excellent, clearly worded analysis. I was trying to explain it to a (somewhat) disaffected Obama supporter, but your description is much more concise. Do you mind if I quote it to a few people?

That said, does Russia really trust an Iran with nukes?

36 posted on 09/09/2013 10:26:59 PM PDT by Paul R. (We are in a break in an Ice Age. A brief break at that...)
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