Skip to comments.Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds
Posted on 09/12/2013 3:02:18 PM PDT by Sub-Driver
Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds
By Maxim Lott
Published September 12, 2013
Can you rely on the weather forecast? Maybe not, at least when it comes to global warming predictions over short time periods.
Thats the upshot of a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change that compared 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming. Out of 117 predictions, the studys author told FoxNews.com, three were roughly accurate and 114 overestimated the amount of warming. On average, the predictions forecasted two times more global warming than actually occurred.
Some scientists say the study shows that climate modelers need to go back to the drawing board.
"It's a real problem ... it shows that there really is something that needs to be fixed in the climate models," climate scientist John Christy, a professor at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, told FoxNews.com.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Can we start putting these thieves on trial?
Responses from the usual suspects will be limited to mostly two variations: a) the changes we forced down everyone’s throats saved us, or b) that’s hateful, shut up.
Also garbage data like urban heat islands.
Also that pesky sun that somehow decides to go billiard ball smooth every now and then, its lack of spots giving us a cooler earth (even almanacs know this).
I think the Al Gore phenomenon revealed to the world where it had really put its faith, and that was in man’s endeavors not God’s. If the world will take warning then it will get blessed again, after all these decades of curses that were its own fault.
This will be ignored by the MSM but is hardly a surprise. The ‘global warming’ scam has been exposed so many times yet Obama and the left keep pretending it’s real and we must DO SOMETHING, like destroy the coal industry and waste billions on schemes to generate electric power from sunbeams and wind Seriously?
Hmm...114 out of 117 wildly inaccurate. That’s a “consensus”, I suppose. BTT
we have a faith issue here.
people WILL believe. it is built in to them. the variable here is WHAT they will believe.
human science is a real lousy God, dig???
Wait a minute here, I thought the ‘science’ was ‘settled’.
You will notice that NOT ONE of these models underestimated the warming. They all overestimated it to some degree. Which means that the model is completely unreliable and that the model was designed to get the results that the “scientists” wanted.
Hmm...114 out of 117 wildly inaccurate. Thats a consensus, I suppose. BTT
——— No, it is an inconvenient truth ...
The computer climate models did exactly what they were programmed to do.
Some scientists say the study shows that climate modelers need to go back to the drawing board.
Sorry, but no.
Some scientists need to recognize that computer modelling is not science. These models are very useful hypothesis-generating devices, but outside of a very limited range, they have no predictive value. Even with perfect data, they can't predict the past.
It's like all the nonsense we see from the public health community, based on epidemiological studies. It looks like science, and sounds like science, but it's not science.
File under “D” for “Duh”.
Maybe the climate modelers should use more science and less fiction.
Indiscreet was made in 1958.
This line is spoken at 24:40 in the film, which happens to be currently available on YouTube.
Global mean surface temperature over the past 20 years (19932012) rose at a rate of 0.14 ± 0.06 °C per decade (95% confidence interval)1. This rate of warming is significantly slower than that simulated by the climate models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To illustrate this, we considered trends in global mean surface temperature computed from 117 simulations of the climate by 37 CMIP5 models (see Supplementary Information). These models generally simulate natural variability including that associated with the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation and explosive volcanic eruptions as well as estimate the combined response of climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol abundance (of sulphate, black carbon and organic carbon, for example), ozone concentrations (tropospheric and stratospheric), land use (for example, deforestation) and solar variability. By averaging simulated temperatures only at locations where corresponding observations exist, we find an average simulated rise in global mean surface temperature of 0.30 ± 0.02 °C per decade (using 95% confidence intervals on the model average). The observed rate of warming given above is less than half of this simulated rate, and only a few simulations provide warming trends within the range of observational uncertainty (Fig. 1a).
The inconsistency between observed and simulated global warming is even more striking for temperature trends computed over the past fifteen years (19982012). For this period, the observed trend of 0.05 ± 0.08 °C per decade is more than four times smaller than the average simulated trend of 0.21 ± 0.03 °C per decade (Fig. 1b). It is worth noting that the observed trend over this period not significantly different from zero suggests a temporary hiatus in global warming24.
The divergence between observed and CMIP5- simulated global warming begins in the early 1990s, as can be seen when comparing observed and simulated running trends from 19702012 (Fig. 2a and 2b for 20-year and 15-year running trends, respectively).
The evidence, therefore, indicates that the current generation of climate models (when run as a group, with the CMIP5 prescribed forcings) do not reproduce the observed global warming over the past 20 years, or the slowdown in global warming over the past fifteen years.
The sky is blue.
Bears live in the woods.
The Pope is STILL Catholic.
It's AMAZING to me that people still swallow the tainted GoreBall Warming swill.
God gave them over to a reprobate mind; a vain empty mind, worthless
The alarmists are now claiming that the heat is out there, but it’s just hiding. I kid you not.
government doesn't work and must be abolished except for military and border control.
there is record ice growth in the Arctic during this summer. I think the ice sheet grew by 60% over last year. and for 30 years the government has been funding fake studies to create the global warming hoax. the media has been screeching global warming for 30 years. it's all to destroy capitalism, destroy our freedom and our economy
Tainted academics and “educators” and administrators across the board knew that going along with the Leftist lie was the way to get grants pouring it.
*Wait a minute here, I thought the science was settled.*
I think that statement was their biggest mistake.
The ears or Real Scientists perked up when the clown scientists and the grifters tried to make people believe that.
Actual scientists rarely have a consenus on anything that hasn’t been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt and even then one of them says, “But what if?”...
This year record ice growth in the Arctic , the ice sheet is advancing.
Global warming is a hoax created by government funding 30 years of fake research.
This year is the latest that a hurricane has taken to form
Maybe if they based their assumption on H2O as the primary green house gas, their predictions would be better.
Now if we could just study the estimates of global warming with who is paying for the studies, I would bet that the correlation is 100%.
a model of failure
It IS science if it works. Lots of things are computer modeled very nicely.
These guys just had an agenda they were trying to push, assuming the media would convince people they were correct and no on would question them.
Only if there is a short rope and a tall tree waiting for them at the end of the day.
Well this is certainly one of the sillier idolatries. Other idolatries are evil too (all are) but at least most are about things that have more real world substance than this. Better perhaps to worship a bird or a beast than a “science” that can’t even get its facts or its scope straight.
Well, it seems to simple minded me that these white coated priests are trying to use some superficial, scanty, and distorted measurements to keep effective track of factors that vary strongly and wildly in manners that we scarcely know about. And they are somehow expecting that ANY system of equations would be able to keep tabs on the underlying reality based only on those measurements. Now THAT is wishful hocus pocus.
It looks like science, and sounds like science, but it's not science.
I tried to explain this to some libtards telling me that most models are highly accurate and are proof positive "global warming"...err I mean "Climate Change" was real...
I could not get it though their wooden heads
Global warming is a hoax but democrats think the media and government don't lie to them . democrats trust government and the media
I agree that trying to model climate is a joke. As you say, there are too many factors and they have NO business foisting these forecasts on the public. They are essentially testing their work on the public and trying to tell us that their predictions are very reliable, when clearly, they don’t know how it works yet. But the fanatics believe they know what they are doing and we waste trillions of dollars world wide on the climate hoax.
Weather and climate models do not impress me at all. Too many variables.
I live just south of one of the Great Lakes. One evening Accuweather prediction was for 100% clear skies and chance of rain all day was 0%. I woke to 100% clouds and rain on and off all day. Never saw the sun. Of course, the previous night’s forecast was ‘modified’ to match what really happened.
Things like this happen frequently around our area. They have a terrible time with cloud cover due to the lake. Also, lake effect rain is tough to predict, too. They should just admit that their tech is just not up to the job.
Then Accuweather has the nerve to produce 45 day forecasts (!!!) when they can’t even get 12 hours ahead correct. Did you know that on October 26, I am supposed to see a high of 55 and a low of 44. We are going to get 0.08 inches of rain. Also WSW winds of 4 gusting to 13 during the day and NNW winds of 10 gusting to 17 in the evening. What a joke.
“Man-made glow-bull warming” is political propaganda.