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Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds
FOX ^

Posted on 09/12/2013 3:02:18 PM PDT by Sub-Driver

Climate models wildly overestimated global warming, study finds

By Maxim Lott

Published September 12, 2013

| FoxNews.com

Can you rely on the weather forecast? Maybe not, at least when it comes to global warming predictions over short time periods.

That’s the upshot of a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change that compared 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming. Out of 117 predictions, the study’s author told FoxNews.com, three were roughly accurate and 114 overestimated the amount of warming. On average, the predictions forecasted two times more global warming than actually occurred.

Some scientists say the study shows that climate modelers need to go back to the drawing board.

"It's a real problem ... it shows that there really is something that needs to be fixed in the climate models," climate scientist John Christy, a professor at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, told FoxNews.com.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: envirofascism; globalwaminghoax; globalwarming; junkscience; manbearpig; thegreenlie
And in other news John Carey failed his own "Global Test".
1 posted on 09/12/2013 3:02:18 PM PDT by Sub-Driver
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To: Sub-Driver

Can we start putting these thieves on trial?


2 posted on 09/12/2013 3:04:12 PM PDT by lormand (Inside every liberal is a dung slinging monkey)
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To: Sub-Driver

Responses from the usual suspects will be limited to mostly two variations: a) the changes we forced down everyone’s throats saved us, or b) that’s hateful, shut up.


3 posted on 09/12/2013 3:04:34 PM PDT by OldNewYork (Biden '13. Impeach now.)
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To: Sub-Driver

Also garbage data like urban heat islands.

Also that pesky sun that somehow decides to go billiard ball smooth every now and then, its lack of spots giving us a cooler earth (even almanacs know this).

I think the Al Gore phenomenon revealed to the world where it had really put its faith, and that was in man’s endeavors not God’s. If the world will take warning then it will get blessed again, after all these decades of curses that were its own fault.


4 posted on 09/12/2013 3:05:28 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (The Lion of Judah will roar again if you give him a big hug and a cheer and mean it. See my page.)
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To: Sub-Driver

This will be ignored by the MSM but is hardly a surprise. The ‘global warming’ scam has been exposed so many times yet Obama and the left keep pretending it’s real and we must DO SOMETHING, like destroy the coal industry and waste billions on schemes to generate electric power from sunbeams and wind Seriously?


5 posted on 09/12/2013 3:06:43 PM PDT by Jim Scott
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To: Sub-Driver

Hmm...114 out of 117 wildly inaccurate. That’s a “consensus”, I suppose. BTT


6 posted on 09/12/2013 3:08:40 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: Jim Scott

we have a faith issue here.

people WILL believe. it is built in to them. the variable here is WHAT they will believe.

human science is a real lousy God, dig???


7 posted on 09/12/2013 3:09:45 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (The Lion of Judah will roar again if you give him a big hug and a cheer and mean it. See my page.)
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To: Sub-Driver

Wait a minute here, I thought the ‘science’ was ‘settled’.


8 posted on 09/12/2013 3:10:13 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: Sub-Driver

You will notice that NOT ONE of these models underestimated the warming. They all overestimated it to some degree. Which means that the model is completely unreliable and that the model was designed to get the results that the “scientists” wanted.


9 posted on 09/12/2013 3:12:25 PM PDT by P-Marlowe (There can be no Victory without a fight and no battle without wounds)
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To: Billthedrill

Hmm...114 out of 117 wildly inaccurate. That’s a “consensus”, I suppose. BTT

——— No, it is an inconvenient truth ...


10 posted on 09/12/2013 3:14:35 PM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: Sub-Driver; All

The computer climate models did exactly what they were programmed to do.


11 posted on 09/12/2013 3:15:24 PM PDT by Amendment10
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To: Sub-Driver
Some scientists say the study shows that climate modelers need to go back to the drawing board.

Sorry, but no.

Some scientists need to recognize that computer modelling is not science. These models are very useful hypothesis-generating devices, but outside of a very limited range, they have no predictive value. Even with perfect data, they can't predict the past.

It's like all the nonsense we see from the public health community, based on epidemiological studies. It looks like science, and sounds like science, but it's not science.

12 posted on 09/12/2013 3:17:34 PM PDT by jdege
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To: Sub-Driver

File under “D” for “Duh”.


13 posted on 09/12/2013 3:18:07 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: Sub-Driver

Maybe the climate modelers should use more science and less fiction.


14 posted on 09/12/2013 3:19:50 PM PDT by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
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To: Sub-Driver
In the movie Indiscreet, there is a scene in which Cary Grant and Ingrid Bergman are carrying on an awkward conversation whilst riding in an elevator. Mr. Grant says "I read an article the other day that claimed the world's weather was changing."

Indiscreet was made in 1958.

This line is spoken at 24:40 in the film, which happens to be currently available on YouTube.

15 posted on 09/12/2013 3:19:58 PM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: Sub-Driver
AlGore: ‘I fooled y'all all, tee-hee, tee-hee’ oh and ‘ta-ching' btw.
16 posted on 09/12/2013 3:20:03 PM PDT by The Cajun (Sarah Palin, Mark Levin, Ted Cruz......Nuff said.)
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To: Sub-Driver
This just proves that Global Warming Man Made Climate Change is a lot worse than we originally thought!
17 posted on 09/12/2013 3:25:09 PM PDT by Tzimisce (The American Revolution began when the British attempted to disarm the Colonists.)
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To: Sub-Driver
Recent observed global warming is significantly less than that simulated by climate models. This difference might be explained by some combination of errors in external forcing, model response and internal climate variability

Global mean surface temperature over the past 20 years (1993–2012) rose at a rate of 0.14 ± 0.06 °C per decade (95% confidence interval)1. This rate of warming is significantly slower than that simulated by the climate models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To illustrate this, we considered trends in global mean surface temperature computed from 117 simulations of the climate by 37 CMIP5 models (see Supplementary Information). These models generally simulate natural variability — including that associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and explosive volcanic eruptions — as well as estimate the combined response of climate to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol abundance (of sulphate, black carbon and organic carbon, for example), ozone concentrations (tropospheric and stratospheric), land use (for example, deforestation) and solar variability. By averaging simulated temperatures only at locations where corresponding observations exist, we find an average simulated rise in global mean surface temperature of 0.30 ± 0.02 °C per decade (using 95% confidence intervals on the model average). The observed rate of warming given above is less than half of this simulated rate, and only a few simulations provide warming trends within the range of observational uncertainty (Fig. 1a).

The inconsistency between observed and simulated global warming is even more striking for temperature trends computed over the past fifteen years (1998–2012). For this period, the observed trend of 0.05 ± 0.08 °C per decade is more than four times smaller than the average simulated trend of 0.21 ± 0.03 °C per decade (Fig. 1b). It is worth noting that the observed trend over this period — not significantly different from zero — suggests a temporary ‘hiatus’ in global warming2–4.

The divergence between observed and CMIP5- simulated global warming begins in the early 1990s, as can be seen when comparing observed and simulated running trends from 1970–2012 (Fig. 2a and 2b for 20-year and 15-year running trends, respectively).

The evidence, therefore, indicates that the current generation of climate models (when run as a group, with the CMIP5 prescribed forcings) do not reproduce the observed global warming over the past 20 years, or the slowdown in global warming over the past fifteen years.

18 posted on 09/12/2013 3:25:13 PM PDT by Uncle Miltie (Why haven't we heard from the 30 Benghazi survivors?)
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To: Sub-Driver
In other news.

The sky is blue.
Bears live in the woods.
The Pope is STILL Catholic.

It's AMAZING to me that people still swallow the tainted GoreBall Warming swill.

19 posted on 09/12/2013 3:28:49 PM PDT by PATRIOT1876
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To: HiTech RedNeck

God gave them over to a reprobate mind; a vain empty mind, worthless


20 posted on 09/12/2013 3:30:08 PM PDT by PATRIOT1876
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To: Sub-Driver

The alarmists are now claiming that the heat is out there, but it’s just hiding. I kid you not.


21 posted on 09/12/2013 3:30:26 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: Sub-Driver
global warming is a hoax. the media and government have the democrat sheep believing in global warming

government doesn't work and must be abolished except for military and border control.

there is record ice growth in the Arctic during this summer. I think the ice sheet grew by 60% over last year. and for 30 years the government has been funding fake studies to create the global warming hoax. the media has been screeching global warming for 30 years. it's all to destroy capitalism, destroy our freedom and our economy

22 posted on 09/12/2013 3:32:14 PM PDT by Democrat_media (IRS rigged election for Obama and democrats by shutting down tea party)
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To: OldNewYork; Sub-Driver

Tainted academics and “educators” and administrators across the board knew that going along with the Leftist lie was the way to get grants pouring it.


23 posted on 09/12/2013 3:33:02 PM PDT by Seeing More Clearly Now
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To: skeeter

*Wait a minute here, I thought the ‘science’ was ‘settled’.*

I think that statement was their biggest mistake.
The ears or Real Scientists perked up when the clown scientists and the grifters tried to make people believe that.

Actual scientists rarely have a consenus on anything that hasn’t been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt and even then one of them says, “But what if?”...


24 posted on 09/12/2013 3:33:10 PM PDT by PATRIOT1876
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To: Amendment10
The computer climate models did exactly what they were programmed to do.

Correct.

25 posted on 09/12/2013 3:34:13 PM PDT by facedown (Armed in the Heartland)
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To: Sub-Driver

This year record ice growth in the Arctic , the ice sheet is advancing.

Global warming is a hoax created by government funding 30 years of fake research.

This year is the latest that a hurricane has taken to form


26 posted on 09/12/2013 3:34:47 PM PDT by Democrat_media (IRS rigged election for Obama and democrats by shutting down tea party)
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To: Uncle Miltie

Maybe if they based their assumption on H2O as the primary green house gas, their predictions would be better.

DK


27 posted on 09/12/2013 3:34:52 PM PDT by Dark Knight
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To: Sub-Driver

Now if we could just study the estimates of global warming with who is paying for the studies, I would bet that the correlation is 100%.


28 posted on 09/12/2013 3:35:46 PM PDT by Carry_Okie (Islam offers choices: convert, submit, or die.)
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To: zot

a model of failure


29 posted on 09/12/2013 3:42:35 PM PDT by GreyFriar (Spearhead - 3rd Armored Division 75-78 & 83-87)
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To: jdege
Some scientists need to recognize that computer modelling is not science.

It IS science if it works. Lots of things are computer modeled very nicely.

These guys just had an agenda they were trying to push, assuming the media would convince people they were correct and no on would question them.

30 posted on 09/12/2013 3:55:42 PM PDT by Right Wing Assault (Dick Obama is more inexperienced now than he was before he was elected.)
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To: lormand

Only if there is a short rope and a tall tree waiting for them at the end of the day.


31 posted on 09/12/2013 3:58:23 PM PDT by West Texas Chuck (Obama, locked in a padded room with a bowling ball, would lose it, break it or cut himself on it.)
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To: PATRIOT1876

Well this is certainly one of the sillier idolatries. Other idolatries are evil too (all are) but at least most are about things that have more real world substance than this. Better perhaps to worship a bird or a beast than a “science” that can’t even get its facts or its scope straight.


32 posted on 09/12/2013 4:12:28 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (The Lion of Judah will roar again if you give him a big hug and a cheer and mean it. See my page.)
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To: Right Wing Assault

Well, it seems to simple minded me that these white coated priests are trying to use some superficial, scanty, and distorted measurements to keep effective track of factors that vary strongly and wildly in manners that we scarcely know about. And they are somehow expecting that ANY system of equations would be able to keep tabs on the underlying reality based only on those measurements. Now THAT is wishful hocus pocus.


33 posted on 09/12/2013 4:16:09 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (The Lion of Judah will roar again if you give him a big hug and a cheer and mean it. See my page.)
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To: jdege
Some scientists need to recognize that computer modelling is not science. These models are very useful hypothesis-generating devices, but outside of a very limited range, they have no predictive value. Even with perfect data, they can't predict the past.

...

It looks like science, and sounds like science, but it's not science.

I tried to explain this to some libtards telling me that most models are highly accurate and are proof positive "global warming"...err I mean "Climate Change" was real...

I could not get it though their wooden heads

34 posted on 09/12/2013 4:24:15 PM PDT by Popman (Liberal wars are about killing people for humanitarian reasons...)
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To: Popman
Yes all the democrats I talk to believe in global warming even when the Ice sheet in the Arctic is advancing

Global warming is a hoax but democrats think the media and government don't lie to them . democrats trust government and the media

35 posted on 09/12/2013 4:59:26 PM PDT by Democrat_media (IRS rigged election for Obama and democrats by shutting down tea party)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks Sub-Driver.


36 posted on 09/12/2013 7:17:33 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's no coincidence that some "conservatives" echo the hard left.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

I agree that trying to model climate is a joke. As you say, there are too many factors and they have NO business foisting these forecasts on the public. They are essentially testing their work on the public and trying to tell us that their predictions are very reliable, when clearly, they don’t know how it works yet. But the fanatics believe they know what they are doing and we waste trillions of dollars world wide on the climate hoax.

Weather and climate models do not impress me at all. Too many variables.

I live just south of one of the Great Lakes. One evening Accuweather prediction was for 100% clear skies and chance of rain all day was 0%. I woke to 100% clouds and rain on and off all day. Never saw the sun. Of course, the previous night’s forecast was ‘modified’ to match what really happened.

Things like this happen frequently around our area. They have a terrible time with cloud cover due to the lake. Also, lake effect rain is tough to predict, too. They should just admit that their tech is just not up to the job.

Then Accuweather has the nerve to produce 45 day forecasts (!!!) when they can’t even get 12 hours ahead correct. Did you know that on October 26, I am supposed to see a high of 55 and a low of 44. We are going to get 0.08 inches of rain. Also WSW winds of 4 gusting to 13 during the day and NNW winds of 10 gusting to 17 in the evening. What a joke.


37 posted on 09/12/2013 7:31:10 PM PDT by Right Wing Assault (Dick Obama is more inexperienced now than he was before he was elected.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Thanks


38 posted on 09/13/2013 7:34:40 AM PDT by GOPJ (How come Obama meets with Russian gays but NEVER abused women in Muslim countries? FR:Silverleaf)
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To: GreyFriar

“Man-made glow-bull warming” is political propaganda.


39 posted on 09/13/2013 9:10:48 AM PDT by zot
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To: Sub-Driver; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; alrea; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

AM Alert: Legislators pack it in; Jerry Brown signs climate deal

Former Dem aide heads to coal industry group

Global Warming on Free Republic

Latest from Global Warming News Site

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40 posted on 09/13/2013 12:39:31 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Major brain damage at UMES, but no property damage!)
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To: Sub-Driver
Maybe the people at EPA should read this study ... but that would interfere with their real purpose of power, control and subjugation of the populace.
41 posted on 09/13/2013 1:25:20 PM PDT by Truth29
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