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The Canary in the Coal Mine
The weekly Standard ^ | September 23, 2013 | y HEATHER R. HIGGINS and WILLIAM W. PASCOE II1

Posted on 09/23/2013 9:51:39 AM PDT by yoe

The poll data is clear and cuts across party lines: 92 percent of the public does not think it is right that Congress and their staff are letting the Obama administration exempt them from the costs of Obamacare. Yet it seems many in Congress still want to dismiss these findings in hopes that these sentiments won't translate into actual voter preferences.

Incumbents facing reelections shouldn't fool themselves. A recent real-world deployment of the issue shows it can powerfully impact candidates’ prospects.

As for the strategists, the message is clear: Get your incumbents on the right side of the issue, or spend election night on the edge of your seat; get your challengers on the right side of the issue, and prepare to win where you didn’t previously think possible.

We tested the effect of the congressional exemption issue in six different 2014 races, which represent different election archetypes. We launched incumbent-specific, small but targeted, week-long communications campaigns, using mail, phones and internet, (but no TV or radio), directed at 7,500 likely voters. Then we analyzed the criteria regularly used by campaign strategists to measure the strength of an incumbent’s reelection campaign: the "hard re-elect", or the percentage of voters who say they will vote to reelect the incumbent; the "hard vote against", or the percentage of voters who say they will vote against an incumbent; and the "ballot test", or how the incumbent fares when matched up against his challenger.

[snip] The incumbents against whom we tested the issue were: Sen. Mark Udall, Democrat from Colorado; Sen. Mary Landrieu, Democrat from Louisiana; Sen. Lindsey Graham, Republican from South Carolina; Rep. John Tierney, Democrat from Massachusetts; Rep. Jim Matheson, Democrat from Utah; and U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson, Republican from Idaho.

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 0carenightmare; aca; congress; corruption; obama; obamacare
The Obamacare bill is soooooo toxic as to be WMDs for America's U.S. Constitution....filled with new and power-grabbing rules and regulations not meant for a free market of medicine or free ideas OR a free society! Obamacare exemptions are proof enough that unions, lawmakers, FOBO, the teacher's unions etc. don't want any part of this so for being loyal to the fraud in the White House, they are being given exemptions and young Americans are being forced to pay for Obamacare...no one is going to see any better medical help in the USA, they are going to see chaos. Tell you Senators NO TO OBAMACARE! NO PART OF THAT PERNICIOUS BILL SHOULD NEVER EVER HAVE BEEN FOISTED ON AMERICANS....IT IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL regardless of what Justice Roberts did for political reasons....gun to his family's head?
1 posted on 09/23/2013 9:51:39 AM PDT by yoe
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To: yoe

It is also illegal for the Executive Branch to rewrite portions of a law that have been passed into law. Where is the opposition party?


2 posted on 09/23/2013 9:52:46 AM PDT by AD from SpringBay (http://jonah2eight.blogspot.com/)
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To: AD from SpringBay

The opposition party supports the continuation of government subsidies to themselves and their staffs for health care costs. Both parties are corrupt.


3 posted on 09/23/2013 9:54:54 AM PDT by kabar
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To: yoe
They demand all submit to our Islamic and unConstitutional
Masters "Elected"-by-Fraud.


4 posted on 09/23/2013 9:56:54 AM PDT by Diogenesis
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To: yoe

Any incumbent that voted to exempt themselves or their families or staff, will face a torrent of ads from their opponents over this one thing. Americans will be enraged and will take their anger out on the ones who did this...............


5 posted on 09/23/2013 9:59:32 AM PDT by Red Badger (It is dangerous to be right in matters where established men are wrong. .....Voltaire)
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To: AD from SpringBay

There are only two parties in this country: THE ELECTED OFFICIALS AND THE VOTERS.............


6 posted on 09/23/2013 10:00:53 AM PDT by Red Badger (It is dangerous to be right in matters where established men are wrong. .....Voltaire)
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To: yoe
You assume that our political leadership gives a damn about what the public thinks about them exempting themselves from ObamaCare.

Politicians and their families get sick too, especially our geriatrics in the Senate and House who are at an age where care is critical and they would not qualify under the death panels, and these politicians fully understand just how bad ObamaCare is going to be. It's great to be in favor of rationed care and "cost benefit analysis of care options' until you are the ones who are being denied care by a bureaucratic death panel.

7 posted on 09/23/2013 10:03:11 AM PDT by rdcbn
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To: yoe; C. Edmund Wright
Incumbents facing reelections shouldn't fool themselves. A recent real-world deployment of the issue shows it can powerfully impact candidates’ prospects.

Listen up! We're talking to you ... Linda Graham!

Lindsey Graham Worried About HIS Staff, But Not Yours

8 posted on 09/23/2013 10:04:54 AM PDT by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: yoe
92 percent of the public does not think it is right that Congress and their staff are letting the Obama administration exempt them from the costs of Obamacare

This is as large an opportunity for our side as any out there.

Single moms, hispanics and most liberals must be upset (or can be made upset) by the idea of exemptions.

Who voted for authorizing exemptions?

When was the debate held?

Why was this not mentioned in 2009?

What would the Supreme Court say about exemptions?

This reminds me of the attemt to make electricty an open market in 2000 in California. Rolling blackouts, except for the exempted.

9 posted on 09/23/2013 10:05:33 AM PDT by cicero2k
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To: yoe

This is the low hanging fruit that house GOP shouldnt ignore if what we think happens does.

The worst part is congress specifically put a provision in O-care bill to force congresss and staff and families to get insurance through Obama-care

Then they went to Obama after election and begged him for this handout.


10 posted on 09/23/2013 10:06:31 AM PDT by sickoflibs (To GOP : Any path to US Citizenship IS putting them ahead in line. Stop lying about your position.)
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To: AD from SpringBay
Where is the opposition party?

You mean the spineless Pubbies? Attacking Ted Cruz and standing up for Socialized Healthcare for America, that's where.

11 posted on 09/23/2013 10:07:28 AM PDT by Jane Long (While Marxists continue the fundamental transformation of the USA, progressive RINOs stay silent.)
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To: yoe

What the GOP needs to do is demand that we either exempt no one or exempt everyone. Repeat this over and over, put it on signs, emails and bumper stickers.

The bumper stickers are so liberals will understand it.


12 posted on 09/23/2013 10:11:42 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: yoe

13 posted on 09/23/2013 10:17:02 AM PDT by Impala64ssa (You call me an islamophobe like it's a bad thing.)
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To: yoe

expand the 14th amendment to include Equal Application of ALL US LAW, no one can be exempted from any law, not even the Congress, the Supreme Court nor the President


14 posted on 09/23/2013 10:26:15 AM PDT by drypowder
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To: kabar

There is no way for them to get away with it. The public has short attention span but this is not going away. When the taxpayers have to pay fir the non working voters and their bribees , the congress, and pay a lot, it won’t go away

It will not be accepted.

Every taker/legislator that doesn’t vote against this will be on record and can scream about Gingrich having shut down the govt and bush having been evil all he wants but he’ll be out. Ted Cruz is making it possible not from his own ideas but from the will of the people and the rule of law and the constitution.

The corruption just has to stop


15 posted on 09/23/2013 10:27:28 AM PDT by stanne
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To: yoe
If I was a congressional staffer and I lost my medical, I would go find another job. Those staffers normally qualify for The federal employee insurance coverage. It is decent coverage and costs about what Obamacare will cost a family of 4 making 60k, but the out of pocket caps are higher than Obamacare. If that staffer makes 100k a year they would end up paying an extra $900 a month. Not a hit most of us could take. I wouldn't be able to without stopping my 401k inputs.

This was a poison pill that the democrats intended to dump the whole time. This is what they did with the border fence. This is what they will do with the border security piece of immigration reform.

This didn't stop the dems from using the "it's a law" talking point on Friday. Evidently hypocrisy is a word they think only applies in the third person, never in the first person. The GOP should hook the defund legislation to the gutting of the original bill, not just the fact that the bill will crush a failing economy.

16 posted on 09/23/2013 10:29:56 AM PDT by USNBandit (sarcasm engaged at all times)
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To: Servant of the Cross

This morning on Fox, Graham was very supportive of the House and Ted Cruz.

He said Obamacare was a terrible bill. It will be used to defeat democrats in the upcoming 2014 election.

He, also, said that Rep King was not correct re only one al Queda US group was sending Islamofacists over seas to fight and to try and kill Americans here.

He was very blunt about both issues.


17 posted on 09/23/2013 10:38:28 AM PDT by Grampa Dave ( When insane/feral Islamics are killing each other, stand back and let Allah sort them out!)
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To: yoe

Best story of the Month ... Obamacare is ‘Cryptonite’


18 posted on 09/23/2013 10:41:26 AM PDT by 11th_VA (I want a president who won't enforce tax laws ...)
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To: Red Badger
Any incumbent that voted to exempt themselves or their families or staff, will face a torrent of ads

There was NO vote and there never will be that's the point. Obama did it for them. Now they can all claim they did not support it and keep the money.

19 posted on 09/23/2013 11:16:53 AM PDT by usurper (Liberals GET OFF MY LAWN)
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To: stanne
There is no way for them to get away with it. The public has short attention span but this is not going away. When the taxpayers have to pay fir the non working voters and their bribees , the congress, and pay a lot, it won’t go away

It will go away. Obama got reelected. Discussion over.

20 posted on 09/23/2013 2:41:35 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

They might think it will go away. they might think they fall under the BO parachute, but they don’t.

And they won’t.

If you think people will put up with triple premiums, no health insurance for their families, penalties for no insurance to pay for undocumented and non working people and the economy will hum along or improve, instead of come to a complete hale and people will still work to support congresspeople who forced this thing in when the Constitution says congress will pass no law that they don’t fall under, then no one will stop you. I just think this week might come out a whole lot differently than all the media thinks it will.

But I just think this week is g


21 posted on 09/23/2013 5:19:42 PM PDT by stanne
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To: stanne
If you think people will put up with triple premiums, no health insurance for their families, penalties for no insurance to pay for undocumented and non working people and the economy will hum along or improve, instead of come to a complete hale and people will still work to support congresspeople who forced this thing in when the Constitution says congress will pass no law that they don’t fall under, then no one will stop you. I just think this week might come out a whole lot differently than all the media thinks it will.

You are dreaming. This country has reached a tipping point. The welfare state is fully-imbedded with the takers outnumbering and out voting the producers. And crony capitalism is in full bloom with government controlling over 40% of our GDP. The low information voter predominates. Defunding Obamacare is going nowhere. And repeal will not happen under Obama or Hillary who is almost certain to be the next President of the US. Demography is destiny.

22 posted on 09/24/2013 8:47:17 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

The money will run out. Foreign countries will know the value of our printed currency


23 posted on 09/24/2013 9:18:16 AM PDT by stanne
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To: cicero2k
What would the Supreme Court say about exemptions?

What about the Equal Protection clause?

24 posted on 09/24/2013 9:34:46 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: stanne

The money has already run out. We are deep in debt and things are getting worse. However, the dollar remains the world reserve currency and that will not change anytime soon. The US economy, as bad as it is, is still the world’s safe harbor when it comes to investing and protecting their money and it is also the largest thus able to absorb huge investments. How long that will continue is anyone’s guess, but I suspect we will have both left this mortal coil long before it happens.


25 posted on 09/24/2013 11:36:55 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

Blah blah. It’s like what people talk about at the bar after a golf game

The issue is not how we can live off of the reputation and economy our parents gave us but what is obamacare about to do to us

We cannot afford it and we cannot afford what it will do to our economy. Our children are supposed to fix it?

We’re not even educating them

Dreams


26 posted on 09/24/2013 11:47:36 AM PDT by stanne
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To: stanne
We cannot afford it and we cannot afford what it will do to our economy. Our children are supposed to fix it?

End it, don't mend it. The problem is that once it is fully implemented, it will be virtually impossible to repeal it. Obama and Hillary will ensure that it is fully implemented. It will become like Medicare and Social Security and Medicaid and Food Stamps, i.e., permanent government programs that will never be abolished.

27 posted on 09/24/2013 12:33:28 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

They/ we will NEVER get rid of it once it goes into effect.

NEVER.


28 posted on 09/24/2013 12:53:07 PM PDT by stanne
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