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2014 Senate Overwatch (Alaska through Delaware)
10/1/2013 | Me

Posted on 10/01/2013 6:17:22 PM PDT by Viennacon


The race against incumbent Mark Begich is likely to end up tougher than it should be. Mark Begich, if you remember, was voted in on the 2008 wave on King Obama’s coattails. He won by something like 2% over incumbent Republican, Ted Stevens. Stevens was being indicted at the time (though the charges were later thrown out), so it’s remarkable that the race was that close. Stevens subsequently died in a plane crash.

Mark Begich is a fraud. And I often call Joe Manchin a fraud, well Begich is a bigger fraud. He consistently avoids being tied to Obama and the libtard agenda at large despite the fact he voted for Obamacare and he votes lockstep with Reid on everything except guns. This man is a political creature. He has a strong network in Alaska, with particular emphasis on major publications and media outlets where he’ll no doubt sell himself as a ‘Conservative Democrat’. Rest assured, the rats will be pouring money into this race to keep him on side, and highlight how ‘independent’ he is. “Oh, he attacked Ed Markey in some scathing letter. How bipartisan!” Not really, since Markey is as far left as Bernie Sanders. With all that said, this race will be key to getting to that magic 6 seats that we need to flip the senate. We have a Democrat in a red state, and he needs to go. Begich’s approval numbers are moderately high (49%), but that doesn’t mean much this early in the race. What hobbles us is our own candidate field.

The candidates on our side announced as of now are as follows.

• Joe Miller, the former attorney and candidate for US Senate who lost to Lisa MurCOWski due to a fraudulent write-in campaign involving Eskimos whose hands were guided in scribbling her name. He is a rock solid conservative, but his statewide approval rating is low, and he is prone to handling media scrutiny poorly.

• Mead Treadwell, the former Lt. Governor who just resigned to run for the senate seat. Treadwell’s record has been a mixed bag. Fiscally and socially, his record seems clean. He was not a member of the ‘Corrupt Bastard’s Club’ (MurCOWski’s motley crew). However, he is very cozy with UN regulators, and has affirmed his belief in climate change… er… global warming. On the plus side, he polls better than the other two candidates against Begich, and has high name ID and fundraising potential.

• Dan Sullivan, Alaska’s Natural Resources Commissioner, has not yet officially declared, but his retirement from his government post according to all sources is to pursue a senate challenge to Begich. He is well known in the state, and has fought out-of-state meddling with more tenacity than Treadwell. He was a Palin appointee, so probably solid on most issues.

At this point, I am leaning toward Dan Sullivan for the nomination. I don’t think Miller will be able to campaign effectively outside of the engaged base, and Treadwell’s record raises a lot of questions. Not totally settled on this race though, which is bad news.


I’m supporting incumbent senator Jeff Sessions in this race. He stumbles occasionally, but he is definitely solid enough to warrant reelection. We reward our own. In fact, there probably won’t be a race. Sessions is unlikely to draw any primary challengers, and the Democrat party of Alabama is not only heavily outnumbered, but also drowning in debt.


Markedly easier than the race against Mark Begich, is the race against the ever obtuse Mark Pryor. Still running on daddy’s name, this turd voted for Obamacare, and should be exposed at every opportunity as a rubber stamp for the socialist agenda. Pryor is not as politically savvy as Mark Begich (as much as pundits want you to think otherwise). He has gotten lazy, and his network across the state has fallen into decay. In addition, whereas Alaska’s left-right paradigm has been stagnated by a corrupt GOP, Arkansas is shifting right fast and shows no signs of stopping. Just ask Blanche Lincoln. Pryor finds himself out of touch with a conservative electorate who are engaged. Health insurance premiums are up by 41% thanks to a law that Pryor had the deciding vote on. The only thing that could save Pryor would be a weak challenger with little fundraising ability. Someone he could steamroll. Unfortunately for him, a very different candidate has materialized.

Since jumping into the race, Representative Tom Cotton has essentially cleared his primary field. This poses several problems for Pryor. Cotton is both politically tactful, well connected nationally, popular among a diverse range of voters, and more in line with the current Arkansas sentiment. This is reflected in the fact that Cotton leads Pryor by a few points in most current polls. That’s deadly territory for an incumbent. Cotton is not without his missteps. He sided with the Syria war caucus while Pryor did not. Other than that, his Heritage Action Scorecard is all but exemplary, with a 91% rating.

Rest assured, Cotton will beat Pryor by a clean 6 points in 2014. Obamacare will prove to be the Democrat’s Achilles heel, and Pryor was just forced into voting against a repeal, a delay, rolling back the medical device tax, and deleting perks for his staff. Cotton will in all likelihood be a strong conservative ally on the vast majority of issues in the senate, and better yet, he’s no backbencher. Cotton is not afraid to lay into the other side when necessary. I’m comfortable endorsing him as the next senator from Arkansas. I just hope the higher status does not go to his head. We all know what a dud John Boozman turned out to be.


Another state, and another Mark is up for reelection. This time, its Mark Udall. Colorado is tough territory for the GOP. We got hammered there in 2012, where the state legislature went heavily rat. This may prove to work in our favor however. There is rising anti-Democrat sentiment in Colorado thanks to an extremely liberal agenda being rammed through both chambers with a rubber stamp from Governor Chickenlooper. It has become so strong, the north east counties of the state have filed a motion to secede and form ‘North Colorado’. If only. What’s more, two state senators including the senate leader were recalled in historic elections over their gun control votes. It’s possible that a backlash in 2014 against the Democrats in the state legislature could spill over onto Mark Udall too.

Udall certainly is not as vulnerable as his colleague Senator Bennett was in 2010. His name ID alone is formidable, and approval of him is high. He’s got a war chest of considerable size, but his ground game in Colorado may be slightly rusty. In fact, the entire Democrat machine may be failing in the state, where it was helpless to prevent the successful recall effort. With just the right conditions, a perfect storm could blow him away. Indeed, in a recent tele-town hall, Udall worried that Republicans will have an advantage over him in 2014.

Currently, three candidates are announced.

• Ken Buck, district attorney and the candidate who was defeated by Bennett in 2010, is back. He’s a conservative firebrand, and can work a crowd in a way that Udall can’t. I have no doubt as a senator, he would be in the Cruz caucus. However, there are some facts to consider when it comes to Ken Buck. He lost. He lost to a very weak senator in a wave election. Though I think he could make a better comeback than Joe Miller, he has issues that might put a ceiling on his appeal. People tend not to like repeats. If there were a perfect storm, it’s possible Buck might blow that as well.

• Owen Hill, a state senator with a record of success through grit and determination, is courting the Tea Party endorsement. He’s hoping they’ll pass on Buck and take a shot on Hill’s conservative record instead. He doesn’t appear to have any kind of controversy surrounding him, although those he has defeated in the past complain that he is too ambitious and brash. It’s possible he may turn middle of the road voters off, which is a danger. He also would be at a big financial disadvantage. Though he is probably the candidate that Udall fears the most.

• Randy Baumgardner is another state senator, though little is known about him apart from that he resembles Yosemite Sam, and comes from one of the most conservative districts.

At this point, I would say Owen Hill is likely the safest choice in a precarious contest. Though I would like someone with more of a presence, our bench in Colorado is shallow. This may become more competitive than it seems right now if it looks like that six year itch is taking hold, so unless someone else jumps in, I’m willing to get behind Hill.


Poor Chris Coons. He just can’t seem to grow anything on the top of his head. Unfortunately for us, that’s all he has to worry about because this seat is not competitive. It doesn’t seem like any candidates have announced against him. He may run unopposed because the Delaware GOP is defunct. Some murmur about an O’Donnell rerun, but I doubt it. She’d lose anyway. Coons is safe.

TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alaska; US: Arkansas; US: Colorado
KEYWORDS: 2014; democrats; republicans; senate
I'm currently pouring over the other races, taking the states in alphabetical order. Would be grateful for input from other Freepers. They may have better assessments than I.
1 posted on 10/01/2013 6:17:22 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

re: Alaska

Miller - he didn’t just shoot himself in the foot, he shot off both legs. He has 900K+ is funds he can only spend for a run, but up to now has been all but silent.

Treadwall - No thanks. Too plain-Jane, no fight in him. Also no money or organization.

Dan Sullivan (NOT the mayor)
Daniel S. Sullivan (born in Fairview Park, Ohio) is the former Alaska Commissioner of Natural Resources, appointed by Governor Sean Parnell in December 2010. He was unanimously confirmed by the Alaska Legislature the following April. Being from Outside will hurt in some areas.

Before assuming the nonpartisan post of natural resources commissioner, Sullivan served as the Republican Attorney General of Alaska from June 2009 until December 2010. He was appointed attorney general in June 2009 by then-Governor Sarah Palin.
He resigned from his post in early-December 2010 after Gov. Parnell tapped him to head the state’s Department of Natural Resources.

Sullivan has served in the United States Marine Corps since 1993. He transitioned from active duty to the reserves in 1997 as a infantry and reconnaissance officer. He has been recalled twice since joining the reserves, most recently in 2009 in order to work on a strategy report for then-Commander of U.S. Central Command General David Petraeus.

Before entering public service, he was an attorney for the firm Perkins Coie, LLP. Sullivan earned his B.A. in Economics from Harvard University and his J.D/M.S. from Georgetown University Law Center.

Aside from his credentials as a statewide official Sullivan’s government experience includes several years working for the federal government in various capacities under former President George W. Bush. Sullivan was the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs - serving as senior adviser to the U.S. Secretary of State on “international economic, energy, trade, finance, transportation, telecommunications and Arctic policies” - as well as Director in the International Economics Directorate of the National Security Council and White House National Economic Council staffs.

Marine. Lawyer. Well rounded experience in gov’t.

My kind of guy.
Sara Palin. She been making noise, bu hasn’t filed.


As an aside, most the dough coming in from “Alaskans for Begich” is Outside money.

The Dems will be pouring the dough in here to keep the seat safely D. Even tho Lisa Mar-cow-ski seems to vote mostly with the Dems, she’s still listed as a R. For now.

As they say, it will be quite the contest...

2 posted on 10/01/2013 6:43:40 PM PDT by ASOC (What are you doing now that Mexico has become OUR Chechnya?)
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To: Viennacon

If Lonegan can come within6 points of Saint Booker here in Jersey, there is no excuse for any state. Get a ground game going and fight them everywhere.

3 posted on 10/01/2013 6:43:45 PM PDT by MattinNJ (It's over Johnny. The America you knew is gone. Denial serves no purpose.)
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To: Viennacon


4 posted on 10/01/2013 6:44:15 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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Thanks for the extensive info on Sullivan.

Begich is very much hoping he divides the non-Miller vote with Treadwell, clearing the path for Miller to be the nominee. However, I think if we back Sullivan early on, get the primary done with as little bloodshed as possible, we’ll be in good standing.

5 posted on 10/01/2013 6:51:56 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon
Do you remember Photo Radar? I thought for sure that was the end of Mark's political career, ha ha. Mark has a brother, Nick; pretty good guy actually; reminds me of Wally Hickel.

I was at Nick's house about a dozen years or so back, AIP wanted Nick to run for Governor. I asked him what would be his first controversial task? He said he would take 10 Billion out of the PFD and build gas pipelines all over Alaska to bring cheap, clean fuel, that the state owned to Alaskans. Of course I thought he was nuts at the time; but now wonder if he was ahead of his time?

I think Mark will have a tough time getting re-elected. Most Alaskans see him as somewhat slow; can't react when put on the spot. Alaskans like the Donny Young types; now that guy puts on a real show. People know how his head works, and trust his judgment.

People still remember all the good things Palin did while Governor. Me thinks she could energize the race if she so choose to. Ole Palin is one of the few politicals that would keep her word too.

My 2 cents from along the Upper Yukon.

6 posted on 10/01/2013 6:55:49 PM PDT by Eska
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To: Viennacon

I hope your lack of mentioning Begich and Pryor’s votes for the Gang of Eight’s Schumer-Rubio immigration bill (sorry if I missed it) doesn’t foreshadow the GOP failing to use these inexcusable votes against them.

The alleged popularity of Schumer-Rubio is a sham, because the way it is presented to the public by Obama, it’s Congressional supporters, the media, and pollsters is not reflective of what it actually is. Americans have been presented with a pretty, fantasy version of a very ugly bill. It won’t end illegal immigration. The allegedly tough enforcement mechanisms and measures are mostly at the whim of the President and his Homeland Security chief. Criminal illegal aliens can get on the path to citizenship. And worst of all, Schumer-Rubio would massively increase already mass levels of legal immigration.

It’s stunning really that this last part - the huge increase in legal immigration the bill would unleash - has received so little attention. I mean, it’s not surprising that Schumer, Rubio, Graham, McCain, Obama, and other champions of the bill don’t ever mention it. It’s also not surprising that the worthless mainstream media has not informed the public about it. It’s not even surprising that allegedly conservative Fox News has been negligent here. But it’s surprising and disheartening that Republicans have not made this a centerpiece of the campaign against this brand of ‘comprehensive immigration reform.’

A strong majority of Americans oppose increasing legal immigration. More Americans support reducing legal immigration than support increasing it. And here are the Democrats - Begich and Pryor included - voting for a bill that wouldn’t just increase immigration by a little bit, but instead would result in tens of millions additional legal immigrants over the millions we’d already admit. This is ripe for use against the Democrats. Cotton and whoever emerges as the GOP challenger in Alaska, North Carolina, Louisiana, and other states would be crazy not to use it.

And Jeff Sessions isn’t just okay; he’s one of the best we’ve got. He has done a better job than anyone in the Senate in trying to expose the monstrosity that is Schumer-Rubio.

I agree totally that the Obamacare votes must be used against these red state Democrats, but their votes for Schumer-Rubio could be just as devastating if the GOP is smart enough to use it against them.

7 posted on 10/01/2013 7:17:21 PM PDT by Aetius
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To: Eska

I would love Palin to run, but I think she is unlikely to. What they did to her last time, just in Alaska alone, was brutal.

8 posted on 10/01/2013 7:20:28 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Aetius

I doubt Begich’s support for amnesty will have an impact in Alaska. It’s not much of an issue there, as Canadians aren’t pouring across the border.

In Arkansas however, you’re 100% correct. Amnesty is a good issue to use against Pryor because it remains overwhelmingly unpopular among salt of the earth men and women having their jobs stolen.

Sessions is a fierce conservative, especially on immigration, its just his conservative rating across the board is usually a little lower than McConnell’s (high 70s to low 80s). I’m not sure why that is. I would assume its some economic issues.

9 posted on 10/01/2013 7:32:18 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

I hope to see BOTH the Udall spawn booted out Mark in CO and Jeff here in NM but would settle for Mark first. Career politician sons of a career politician Stuart Udall. We have had enough self serving generational careers in Washington.

Thanks for posting the info.


10 posted on 10/01/2013 9:04:13 PM PDT by Spitzensparkin1 (Arrest and deport all illegal aliens. Americans demand those jobs back! Hoorah, Arizona!)
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To: Viennacon

Waiting for Sara P to throw her hat in the ring. We sure could use the money.

11 posted on 10/01/2013 9:21:40 PM PDT by ASOC (What are you doing now that Mexico has become OUR Chechnya?)
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To: Spitzensparkin1

Unfortunately, the Udall spawn in New Mexico has the entire Zetas Cartel voting for him.

12 posted on 10/01/2013 9:28:37 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

Treadwell is acting like the Senate run is his “turn”. Treadwell is portraying himself as a man who paid his dues to AK. He talks about how he lived in AK for over 40 years, and that Sullivan is a carpet bagger. Treadwell also said its was improper for Sullivan and Miller to run for the Senate. He compared it to Paul Ryan, Scott Walker, and Reince Prebius running for the same office.

Treadwell is making effort to woo pro-lifers. However, the same people who ran Super PACs for MurCOWski, are getting ready to run ads shilling for Treadwell.

It will be interesting if Palin weighs in at all in the AK Senate primary. Joe Miller and Todd Palin still keep in touch. Dan Sullivan was appointed AG by Palin. Jim Palin (Todd’s father) was at a Treadwell fundraiser.

13 posted on 10/04/2013 6:23:21 PM PDT by yongin
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To: Viennacon; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj; randita; Clintonfatigued; Perdogg

Buck is a proven loser. Okay he wasn’t as big a flop as say Sharron Angle but he still lost a race that was his to win, I’m not thrilled with running a state senator low on funds but I’d go with a fresh face.

Not Alabama through Delaware but I thought I’d mention that LT Governor Walsh is running for the rats in Montana. I don’t think he wins but he’s a real candidate that gives the rats the potential for victory so Daines can’t fall on his face like Rehberg and expect to cruise to victory.t as big a flop as say Sharron Angle but he still lost a race that was his to win, I

14 posted on 10/04/2013 11:08:46 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

The Senate races are mildly promising, but many are still muddled. I’m trying to be optomistic, hard to do with all the dissapointments lately.

15 posted on 10/09/2013 3:25:42 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued (The War on Drugs is Big Government statism)
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To: Clintonfatigued; Viennacon; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy; fieldmarshaldj; randita; yongin; Perdogg

Dan Sullivan is a go in Alaska.

16 posted on 10/16/2013 3:37:29 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

Thank you for the update

17 posted on 10/16/2013 3:38:43 PM PDT by Viennacon
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