Skip to comments.Weekly Investment & Finance Thread (Oct 7 - Oct. 11 edition)
Posted on 10/07/2013 3:49:28 AM PDT by expat_panama
This is the Weekly Investment & Finance Thread (Oct 7 - Oct. 11 edition)----
Trying to focus on the markets for today and each day and the economic news
This is where you can exchange some investment opinions and advice
If you see another FR economic thread you like and want to link to it here, please do
Post your favorite economic site links. Your favorite economic blogs and precious metals blogs and sites
Ping list -- on or off let me know here or via freep-mail. If I missed you then Freep-mail me
I might ping you to other interesting economic threads a few times a week. One per day maybe
Sites that posters have recommended ------
|Somebody that no longer posts pointed Aliska to freestockcharts.com. The candles help.
LiveFreeOrDie2001 says he learned A LOT on this free site: http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/
All things forex from different sources. Lots of forums for traders
Gold, Out of the Box Thinking etc...
Websites underbyte likes
http://www.itulip.com Site owner is an economist and predicted our current financial problems back in 1999
http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm Metals focused site with analysis
Futures have stocks DOWN a percent, everything else up. Not sure what the problem is; this morning's news:
MADRID (MarketWatch) -- The chief executive officer of Moody's Investors Service ruled out the possibility of the U.S. government defaulting on its debt, even if a deal over raising the debt ceiling can't be reached by the middle of October.The world's second largest economy is now expected to expand by 7.5pc this year, down from a previous forecast of 8.3pc in April.Supreme Court term begins amid government shutdown By MARK SHERMAN - AP - 2 hrs 34 mins ago WASHINGTON (AP) The Supreme Court is opening foFamilies hoard cash 5 yrs after crisis By BERNARD CONDON - AP - Mon Oct 07, 2:16AM CDTNEW YORK (AP) They speak different languages, live in countries rich and poor, face horrible job markets and healthy ones. When it comes to money, though, they act as one: They're holding tight to their cash, driven more by a fear of losing what they have than a desire to add to it. (full story)
Other than that, good morning all...
No News is Good NewsJobs Friday with no Jobs Report and the market advances? (full story)
ONE44 Weekly OutlookNick Ehrenberg - ONE44 - Sun Oct 06, 3:25PM CDTS&P and NASDAQ looking for new highs. (full story)
Well, Bloomberg is calling it a “default catastrophe”. Fearmongering ramps up.
lol! —what they’re not saying is indexes are still higher than they were the day before the shut down, and the fact that before then we’d been in a downtrend.
Left-wing pundits [snort]
Since this is such a politically charged issue, I wouldn't be surprised if obama and his financial henchmen will distort the markets so much our heads will spin.
Can we trust the media? I saw Jim Cramer this am and it looked to me he was trying to create just enough doubt to start a serious selloff - without looking like a fearmonger. I could be wrong, but that was my impression.
“Can we trust the media? I saw Jim Cramer this am and it looked to me he was trying to create just enough doubt to start a serious selloff - without looking like a fearmonger. I could be wrong, but that was my impression. “
Appears to be a lot of that going on. Some such as Jack Lew and Obama are blatant about it.
Indexes did close about a percent down below the 50-day moving average (sell sign) but it was w/ lower volume (buy sign). Let’s see what tomorrow brings.
#9 post removed by moderator?? In a financial topic? Dang it, I’m curious now.
No ping this morning either. I hope the NSA never got expat.
Obama to nominate Yellen as Bernanke successor
am thinking #9 was my morning ping; all I had was the same ‘ol same ‘ol, news links & futures. I didn’t get an admin nastygram so I’m puzzled.
sure would like to know what the problem was so we can avoid getting banned...
The more they say that and then no Mt. Vesuvius, what next?
Eventually you get caught and nobody believes you.
See: Boy who cried wolf.
Looks like Yellen will be announced as the nominee for Fed chair today.
Interesting how they’ll describe these fake constructs as end of the world disasters but whistle past the graveyard-or flat out lie-about the real economic damage being done and it’s consequences.
I don’t know exactly what happened to expat_panama , some sort of problem with the mods. He sent me the ping list. I’m not really reliable enough to run this so if somebody wants to take this over freep-mail me and I’ll give you the list.
Futures are up pretty good this morning. Have a good day.
I’ve had occassional problems here on Free Republic too. He can utilize my strategy. Avoid Free Republic for a few days, or a week or two if necessary, and return when the storm blows over. I hope expat_panama returns soon. I cover Asia-Pacific business stories during the daytime Beijing, China shift on weekdays. I do what I do to encourage other Freepers, such as expat_panama, to post “Global business tips” 24/7, since I can’t do it alone.
He probably cashed in and headed for Belize.
I read your global business tips. Thanks for that.
Yes he was doing an excellent job. I was learning a lot from him and others on here. Mega Kudos to you expat_panama . I sure hope things workout.
Y’all have been saying nice things about me so I got to post that all is well & I hope to ping everyone tomorrow AM. The rumor on what happened with the deleted ping was that my quote from IBD needed less copying and more paraphrasing. The story is that it wasn’t a clear violation but Freerepublic is forced to always err on the side of honoring the copyright; iirc it’s stuff like that $million lawsuit by the LATimes that keeps everyone on their toes.
So it was really no biggie but remember it just had to happen on the same day the market tanked into a correction —plus my internet connection modem burnt up and smoked the office, and I wound up the day with my wife going to the hospital. It’s all OK now, the wife’s thing was a false alarm (thank GOD), I got back up internet, the market’s rebounded, and I hope to ping everyone in the morning.
Right now I could use an acetaminophen...
Goodness, sorry about your difficulties. Glad you are back.
I so appreciate what you are doing. I haven't bought any stock yet since cashing out, had a dr's appt this am so couldn't take advantage of some price breaks. Hardly any red when I got home this afternoon.
Record high on the DOW for 2013 heard on radio. I don't see any stocks with an enticing enough price.
Some guy with a 401K called talk radio this afternoon and said he made thousands, THOUSANDS. He was willing to give it up for those soldiers coming home in caskets there's no money for. Fisher House is pitching in.
Too bad he didn't or couldn't cash out his big gainers (wish I knew what they were lol) and buy back in on a pullback. I never had a retirement plan so am getting a late start.
Oh, you had one of those days where you make plans then life happens. Glad your wife is alright, hopefully things will get back to normal.
Talk about a bad day.
Thanks for all the pings. Sorry about the modem.
“Yall have been saying nice things about me”
Well, I didn’t say anything nice...but I was THINKING it! Anyway, glad to have you back and glad everything’s okay with you and the Mrs..
Crazy week. Our correction lasts all of one day and then yesterday-- Stocks Take Big Leap, But Volume Is Lower. Now, up in low volume usually means another downside reversal ahead, but today futures are up again. Other headlines:
Let's face it campers, entertainment like this ya can't buy!
With the dust settling I'm finally remembering something serious that happened here that warrants an official PRAYER REQUEST. Our worker Joaquín apparently has some serious medical complications. We're hoping he'll be back Monday but he just spent his first ever night in a hospital on our "Day of Chaos".
Listen, I have got to tell everyone here about health costs in Panama. Joaquín uses Panama's socialized medicine which is roughly like Obamacare but without mandates for either employers or workers. So when he had fainting/intestinal problems his gov't doctor said he really needed an MRI and the death panel scheduled his appointment for sometime in 2014. Joaquín knew better so he called in a favor from an in-law at a private clinic and got an MRI for $15.
That was incidentally the what my wife pays for an emergency visit w/ a real doctor, meds, tests, etc. I was noting last night that we were lucky we just happened to be here when it happened because this stuff home in Texas would have made it cheaper to fly to an emergency room in Panama. My daughter's emergency visit a few months ago (another false alarm) was over $2K which was probably needed to cover the extra $1K for the ABA court costs and the $1K for the AMA's restrictions on med students.
Anyway please remember Joaquín & family in your prayers. My wife & I were praying but with this worsening it's time to call in the cavalry.
Please share your take. What I can get on this is that this should be business as usual and I’m glad. I mean, as vice chair of the Board she really is next in line.
For my own part, Ms. Yellen said, I did not see and did not appreciate what the risks were with securitization, the credit ratings agencies, the shadow banking system, the S.I.V.s I didnt see any of that coming until it happened. Her startled interviewers noted that almost none of the officials who testified had offered a similar acknowledgment of an almost universal failure.
Chastened by the financial crisis, Ms. Yellen now favors stricter regulation. This experience, she told the commission, has strongly inclined me toward tougher standards and built-in rules that will kick into effect automatically when things like this happen, that make tightening up a less discretionary matter.
I'd rather have you two running the country's monetary policy. Here's a woman with a ringside seat. I knew that RE was in a bubble. I knew the source of said bubble. How about a spot on the FED for me?
I’m counting on seeing big gains in my 401K (TSP) but they’re almost three hours late posting today’s values. I wonder why, with low volumes traded yesterday?
Sorry, here’s the link to the story:
EP, I am glad things went well and your wife is OK. That’s scary.
Prayers for Joaquin. Intestinal problems can cause dehydration which can lead to fainting. Maybe it’s nothing serious.
The TSP folks fixed the glitch. We made about 10K yesterday.
tx; that’s what my wife was thinking. btw it was an ultrasound he needed not an MRI (my bad).
--and probably more today! My take is the market's unstable and untrustworthy, but on the other hand this is how it's been for years and our job is to figure out how to deal with it. By Monday we'll have a lot more info and I'll probably buying back in.
Unless prices crash big time again...
Download complete. YIKES --it's a 1-1/2 hr audio 8P.
Prayers for Joaquin and the family.
We thank God that He put that in-law in his life to give him the emergency MRI!
And we pray for His Grace to be bestowed on Joaquin, in and out of the hospital. May he have a quick and complete recovery; giving God the glory, from whom all good things come. In Jesus’ name. Amen.
The first part of your statement is false, and the second part is true. No one could have exactly predicted that, but there were many voices pointing this all out. No one could "prove" it until it happened. People noted the risks and the potential damage and they weren't permabears.
It's my contention that the FEDs response allowed the FedGov response, not just allowed, but aided and abetted it. It is the FedGov response that is the cause of the extended credit headache. It is the FED that let it happen via low, too low, interest rates and a refusal to cool the party via reserve requirements, et al.
--and Yellen was one of them. On the tape she testified (about 8 min. into the mp3) that back in 2005 she'd given speeches warning that the housing bubble that was fueled by unwarranted sub-prime lending was risking instability to the entire economy. My take is that the loony left wants to blame Bush or blame Bernanake for the economy, but (imho) the problems were caused by the loony left's war on business and there's just no way around it.
From your keyboard to G-d’s ear, expat.
Lately I've been buying TZA Fri. afternoon and selling Mon. morning. Provides insurance against a big drop on negative news on the weekend with the market shutdown. I've been making one/two hundred bucks lately. YMMV
Very very very few people understood the extent of the risk tied to the CDS’s and the underlying CDO’s and Synthetic CDO’s. It was a completely unregulated market with no reporting requirements. Heck the owners of the CDS’s could even get prices on them to see what they were worth and what a bank would price them at to issue them. Yellen does understand Bernanke’s “provide liquidity to meet demand” and since I think Bernanke has done a hell of a good job then I’m okay with Yellen. [putting on flame retardant suit]
I’m not sure how providing trillions of liquidity to the market exacerbated the tight lending that occurred after the financial collapse in 2008... If you are saying “before” that then perhaps but monetary expansion wasn’t that great. The reserve requirements were being met through MBS’s rated AAA by the rating agencies. Could they have required more “cash” reserves? Sure...hindsight and all. The shadow banking environment of the derivatives were completely unregulated so absolutely nobidy had any idea how big it was. Yes a few pointed out it could be an issue but they had no clue how big it was or even who was involved. Heck most people have no clue why AIG was bailed out and how they were involved.
Just bot another 1/2 position. Doubled my holdings...
not sure how providing trillions of liquidity to the market exacerbated the tight lending that occurred after the financial collapse in 2008.
While the credit market's still expanding to all time highs, the rate of growth still has a long way to go. The Fed tools are pretty much limited to interest rates, and I'm finding it hard to fault their response in lowering rates as much as possible.
My sincere take is that our problem's not with the Fed's monetary policy but with the enormous tax/regulatory burdens heaped onto the private sector by the administration.