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What If China Stops Buying U.S. Government Debt?
Forbes ^ | 10/06/2013 | Gordon Chang

Posted on 10/08/2013 8:52:18 AM PDT by honestabe010

Just about everyone worries that Beijing, perturbed by the ongoing squabble in Washington, will sour on Treasuries. This concern is embedded in the provocative title of Eamonn Fingleton’s recent Forbes posting: “If Republicans Want to Shut Down Washington, They’ll Have to Ask China’s Permission First.”

The Republicans in fact did not seek Beijing’s approval, and neither did Democrats. Are both sides making a mistake by not taking into account China’s “feelings,” as the Communist Party demands everyone do?

It’s clear Chinese officials are watching closely. “The United States, the world’s sole superpower, has engaged in irresponsible spending for years,” observed Xinhua News Agency in an editorial on Wednesday. “With no political unity to redress its policy mistake, a dysfunctional Washington is now overspending the confidence in its leadership.”

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; debt; debtceiling; economy; obama

1 posted on 10/08/2013 8:52:18 AM PDT by honestabe010
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To: honestabe010

Bernanke will buy it.


2 posted on 10/08/2013 8:53:40 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: honestabe010

I thought they already did, and that’s why the Fed started just printing money (buying the debt themselves).


3 posted on 10/08/2013 8:54:00 AM PDT by marron
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To: honestabe010

Better call Saul!


4 posted on 10/08/2013 8:55:26 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (21st century. I'm not a fan.)
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To: honestabe010

Chang must have head in sand. China doesn’t buy our debt anymore. They’re worried about the debt they’ve already bought.


5 posted on 10/08/2013 8:56:04 AM PDT by apoxonu
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To: honestabe010
If China stops buying US debt, the value of the Dollar will drop by a half at the least and the currency exchange rates between the US and China will become so unfavorable that Chinese goods will be priced out of the American economy.

This would cause a drop in China’s exports of about 20% almost over night.

The Chinese economy would implode.

6 posted on 10/08/2013 8:56:27 AM PDT by rdcbn
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To: honestabe010

Then they will find a horse head in their bed. . . .


7 posted on 10/08/2013 8:58:08 AM PDT by DeaconRed (Two things money can't buy. Home grown tomatoes & affordable O-Bummer health care.)
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To: marron

> I thought they already did, and that’s why the Fed started just printing money (buying the debt themselves).

Yup. This is like three years already when all net debt is being monetized by The Bernank.


8 posted on 10/08/2013 8:59:02 AM PDT by thoughtomator 2.0
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To: honestabe010

It is sad that we are reduced to this question.


9 posted on 10/08/2013 9:01:14 AM PDT by Irenic (The pencil sharpener and Elmer's glue is put away-- we've lost the red wheel barrow)
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To: honestabe010

We sell debt at auction to the lowest bidder. If they aren’t willing to buy at a rate low enough, then the Federal Reserve will step in and buy it.

Thus there will always be a market for our debt, until our currency is so debased as to be meaningless.

I was hoping the shutdown would stop the cheap imports coming in from China at least temporarily. And make domestic producers think twice about relying on Chinese goods instead of American goods. But apparently customs was designated as essential personnel.


10 posted on 10/08/2013 9:02:15 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: honestabe010

We sell debt at auction to the lowest bidder. If they aren’t willing to buy at a rate low enough, then the Federal Reserve will step in and buy it.

Thus there will always be a market for our debt, until our currency is so debased as to be meaningless.

I was hoping the shutdown would stop the cheap imports coming in from China at least temporarily. And make domestic producers think twice about relying on Chinese goods instead of American goods. But apparently customs was designated as essential personnel.


11 posted on 10/08/2013 9:02:15 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: honestabe010

Our economy would collapse, they’d be unable to ship any more crap to Walmart, a billion ChiComs would be laid off, and all ranking Party members would be swinging from lampposts within two weeks.

It’s Mutual Assured Destruction, 21st. Century style.


12 posted on 10/08/2013 9:02:21 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: thoughtomator 2.0; honestabe010

That’s why all the huffing and puffing about the “debt ceiling” is so phony. We already blew right by the real debt ceiling when no one buys your debt anymore, and that happened several years ago.

We’re already in free fall and they just haven’t acknowledged it.


13 posted on 10/08/2013 9:02:26 AM PDT by marron
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To: honestabe010

The Chinese stopped buying our debet and have been unloading it.

The oly buyer now is the Fed.


14 posted on 10/08/2013 9:03:57 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: apoxonu

Who buys theirs? Us. That just keeps the cycle going like they want.


15 posted on 10/08/2013 9:04:15 AM PDT by Resolute Conservative
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To: marron
What isn't phony these days?
16 posted on 10/08/2013 9:08:56 AM PDT by thoughtomator 2.0
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To: honestabe010

I’m not up to speed on this topic, but didn’t a recent bond sale go poorly, and China is no longer buying our debt? Like I said, I’m not up to speed, it’s Mrs. Liberty’s department.


17 posted on 10/08/2013 9:09:28 AM PDT by Cyber Liberty (It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear.)
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To: honestabe010

China already stopped buying US debt. Right now, the Fed is dumping $85 billion per month into the US Treasury. Over the last 12 months, that amount actually exceeds the revenue shortfall for current spending levels. We did not have to borrow a single dime over the past year, which is why interest rates remain so low.


18 posted on 10/08/2013 9:13:32 AM PDT by Hoodat (BENGHAZI - 4 KILLED, 2 MIA)
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To: honestabe010

The Chinese have to buy it. They run a surplus with us, the surplus being US dollars. Therefore those dollars have to come back to the US in some form since they are worthless in China. The Chinese can take those dollars to buy US real estate, products, services, companies or debt.


19 posted on 10/08/2013 9:15:41 AM PDT by Pamlico (Oppose 0bama at every opportunity)
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To: Cyber Liberty; Hoodat; Pamlico; honestabe010

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/roll-over-plan-treasury-needed-pay-record-75t-maturing-debt-fy-2013


20 posted on 10/08/2013 9:27:24 AM PDT by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves)
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To: PieterCasparzen

Scary.


21 posted on 10/08/2013 9:39:15 AM PDT by Hoodat (BENGHAZI - 4 KILLED, 2 MIA)
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To: honestabe010

They would need another place to put it.


22 posted on 10/08/2013 9:40:24 AM PDT by sickoflibs (To GOP : Any path to US Citizenship IS putting them ahead in line. Stop lying about your position)
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To: honestabe010

What if?? They’ve been selling more US treasuries than they’ve been buying since 2011. Japan is or soon will be the largest holder of US debt, yet the sky hasn’t come tumbling down yet. Once China un-pegged it’s currency there was no reason for them to keep on the path they’d been on, and Chinese leaders have criticized US spending patterns for a long time. Like most theories about the US economy, the idea that the U.S. is reliant on China to buy its debt and that hell will break loose when it stops is greatly exaggerated.


23 posted on 10/08/2013 9:40:52 AM PDT by bigbob (Eat it Harry!)
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To: apoxonu

You’re correct.
Poor Bush had to worry about peddling to the Chinese, Baraq just has Ben and Jack handle it.
Much more accomodating.


24 posted on 10/08/2013 9:41:09 AM PDT by nascarnation (Frequently wrong but rarely in doubt....)
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To: honestabe010

We got their crappy products and they got our crappy dollars. Who won?


25 posted on 10/08/2013 9:44:28 AM PDT by PeterPrinciple
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To: apoxonu; honestabe010
Chang must have head in sand. China doesn’t buy our debt anymore. They’re worried about the debt they’ve already bought.

The Chinese still have to buy US Dollars in order to buy OIL.

The reserve currency is PetroDollars.


26 posted on 10/08/2013 9:50:58 AM PDT by Uri’el-2012 (Psalm 119:174 I long for Your salvation, YHvH, Your teaching is my delight.)
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To: Cyber Liberty; Hoodat; Pamlico; honestabe010
The Treasury markets taxpayer debt securities throught its primary dealers, shown at this link:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pridealers_current.html

The heads of those banks are the go-to people that are needed to keep the bond sales moving.

When Hank Paulson (ex-CEO of Goldman Sachs) told GWB that the "banking system would collapse", he meant that a number of the major banks would be insolvent, ergo, this primary dealer banking syndicate would cease to function, i.e., Congress can't borrow money.

Hank's solution was a boatload of government borrowing and to use the cash to extend gracious loans to banks as necessary to ensure they have enough cash to meet their current obligations, without having to start selling off assets to raise cash, which would not have worked for every bank all at once, of course, since the problem already was rooted in declining values of financial assets.

The reliance of the US government on this banking syndicate is such that Hank could easily ask for and get clearance to start the taxpayer commitment at $700 billion by means of the quickly-passed Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.
27 posted on 10/08/2013 9:53:31 AM PDT by PieterCasparzen (We have to fix things ourselves)
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To: UriÂ’el-2012

Old news now I believe. Iran is already selling oil for yuan and rubles. Other OP nations will follow.


28 posted on 10/08/2013 9:54:32 AM PDT by apoxonu
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To: honestabe010

29 posted on 10/08/2013 9:57:26 AM PDT by Phillyred
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30 posted on 10/08/2013 9:59:46 AM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: honestabe010
I wish everyone would stop buying US Government debt.
Savings bonds --- LOL!
31 posted on 10/08/2013 10:00:18 AM PDT by StormEye
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To: Phillyred

32 posted on 10/08/2013 10:02:29 AM PDT by Phillyred
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To: Phillyred

Interesting they used rocks... when, of course, they probably should have used cards.


33 posted on 10/08/2013 10:07:22 AM PDT by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: apoxonu
Old news now I believe. Iran is already selling oil for yuan and rubles. Other OP nations will follow.

You can dismiss it as old news,
but 90 days after it happens
we will have Hyper-inflation.

34 posted on 10/08/2013 10:25:50 AM PDT by Uri’el-2012 (Psalm 119:174 I long for Your salvation, YHvH, Your teaching is my delight.)
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To: apoxonu

That is what I thought, China bailed on us a while back and let the Fed pick up the debt buying.

At some point we will default, the question is how we handle it, a partial default, total government default, total default across the board for public/private debt?


35 posted on 10/08/2013 10:37:30 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: Pamlico

They are also using US dollars to buy gold.

Immense amounts of gold.


36 posted on 10/08/2013 10:40:50 AM PDT by agere_contra (I once saw a movie where only the police and military had guns. It was called 'Schindler's List'.)
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To: PieterCasparzen

thanks for the links and post.


37 posted on 10/08/2013 12:02:30 PM PDT by honestabe010
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To: Pamlico

Right, and they are blocked from most significant U.S. investments. Just some smallish corporate takeovers and a lot of residential housing in California. China would never be allowed to take over a Boeing, for instance, even though they could easily afford it.

So with their dollars they can buy land in Africa or bonds.

China looks very unstable internally now anyway.


38 posted on 10/08/2013 4:18:49 PM PDT by sunrise_sunset
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