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Afghanistan: A Bigger Monster (Michael Yon)
Michael Yon Online Magazine ^ | 10 October 2013 | Michael Yon

Posted on 10/10/2013 10:02:13 AM PDT by neverdem

Just months ago Pentagon officials dismissed the idea of a total pullout from Afghanistan. Today we are on the verge of ending negotiations on our future there, leading to the “zero option.” Total withdrawal.

If we execute a zero option, this is my basic worst-case prediction, which is not far from my most likely scenario prediction:

President Karzai and his government seem to believe we need Afghanistan and will not abandon him, or that we will cave to ridiculous demands. We will not. Remember Iraq. Look at our own current shutdown. The US is in serial crisis mode and Afghanistan is overplaying its hand.

Both the Afghan and US governments frequently behave irrationally, and some US decision-makers are looking for any excuse to drop Afghanistan. Psychologically, we are in a perfect position to negotiate, regardless of the security consequence.

Without support, the Afghan economy will collapse.

Following the economic collapse and without Coalition military support, the Afghan government will also collapse.

If it remains vaguely intact, the Afghan “government” will be ineffective outside of Kabul.

Kandahar City will be the Taliban capital. No international trade will occur in the south without Taliban approval.

The Afghans most capable of running the country will flee for places like Dubai. Many have been gone for years. Nobody will be capable of running the country. The billions of dollars’ worth of roads and infrastructure we built will begin to crumble. The cell phones Afghans have fallen in love with might soon be out of order...

(Excerpt) Read more at michaelyon-online.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: afghanistan

1 posted on 10/10/2013 10:02:13 AM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Very much worth the read.


2 posted on 10/10/2013 10:05:53 AM PDT by Tijeras_Slim
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To: neverdem

Kind of a Libertarian Dreamland.

Like Somalia, but without the lovely beaches!


3 posted on 10/10/2013 10:21:28 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie ("So the minimum plan for obamacare is 100 bucks a month I like you Obama but nigga I'm broke")
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To: neverdem

The real “zero option” is we leave, and we take everything with us that we can. What we can’t take, we destroy. All of the hospitals, bridges, dams, water plants, power plants, telecom towers, everything. Leave them the savage barbarians they are and want to be. Leave them nothing.


4 posted on 10/10/2013 10:23:03 AM PDT by henkster (Communists never negotiate.)
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To: neverdem

China will find a way to fill the vacuum. Their chances of success will be much greater than the USSR’s or the USA’s, because they aren’t going to waste five seconds on exporting failed ideologies like Marxism or “democracy”. They’ll buy the right warlords, build the minimum necessary infrastructure, extract the wealth, and kill any locals who get in their way - just as they are now doing in Africa.


5 posted on 10/10/2013 10:24:04 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: neverdem

Didn’t know Yon had a website. Thanks.


6 posted on 10/10/2013 10:25:07 AM PDT by Brad from Tennessee (A politician can't give you anything he hasn't first stolen from you.)
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To: neverdem

Didn’t know Afghanistan had an economy.


7 posted on 10/10/2013 10:29:42 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (The Tea Party was the earthquake, and Chick Fil A the tsunami...100's of aftershocks to come.)
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To: neverdem
The Afghans most capable of running the country will flee for places like Dubai. Many have been gone for years. Nobody will be capable of running the country. The billions of dollars’ worth of roads and infrastructure we built will begin to crumble.

Right out of Atlas Shrugged, i.e. the San Sebastian mines.

8 posted on 10/10/2013 10:31:07 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (The Tea Party was the earthquake, and Chick Fil A the tsunami...100's of aftershocks to come.)
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To: Night Hides Not

The place is not worth anymore blood and treasure. I was there two years and they are all beggars and thieves, muzzies unfettered by any sort of national conscience. A couple of well placed nukes shoved up Karzai’s butt as we are leaving would be money well spent.


9 posted on 10/10/2013 10:43:53 AM PDT by quantumman
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To: neverdem

I wouldn’t quibble with the author’s conclusions, but what would he have us do?
I think we should get out and learn the lesson, that no matter how admirable our intentions, democracy (because it presupposes a yearning to breath free) can not be transmitted to alien cultures.


10 posted on 10/10/2013 10:46:38 AM PDT by Old North State
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To: neverdem

That is why you fight to win. In the long run, it is more compassionate.


11 posted on 10/10/2013 10:49:06 AM PDT by blueunicorn6 ("A crack shot and a good dancer")
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To: neverdem

Isn’t there some way this can be blamed on Ted Cruz and the TEA Party?


12 posted on 10/10/2013 10:50:54 AM PDT by JimSEA
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To: neverdem
We should get out and the president should say, "Muslims have been telling the world that they are the religion of peace, that they have the solutions for the world's problems, and that all of their problems are the fault of someone else. Ok, let them prove it. Let them show the world that they can protect the rights of minorities and Christians, that Sunni and Shi'a can live together in peace, that they can live without daily bombings, that they are not uncivilized babies. Let them prove it to us. The world is watching."

But of course Obama would never say that.
13 posted on 10/10/2013 10:56:54 AM PDT by Steve_Seattle
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To: neverdem

I believe king louie has hung our forces out to dry in general, and in Afghanistan he stands the best chance of actually participating in their murders, so he’s going to stretch that out for as long as he possibly can.


14 posted on 10/10/2013 11:00:46 AM PDT by onedoug
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To: neverdem

Nobody will be capable of running the country. The billions of dollars’ worth of roads and infrastructure we built will begin to crumble. The cell phones Afghans have fallen in love with might soon be out of order...

That sounds like America. But I thought Afghanistan was the GOOD war.


15 posted on 10/10/2013 11:02:05 AM PDT by VerySadAmerican (".....Barrack, and the horse Mohammed rode in on.")
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To: neverdem

The graveyard of empires. I’m for doing as little as possible to keep the terrorists on the run.


16 posted on 10/10/2013 11:03:38 AM PDT by wordsofearnest (Proper aim of giving is to put the recipient in a state where he no longer needs it. C.S. Lewis)
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To: neverdem

So?
It isn’t worth our blood and treasure to keep it running. Our troops are being murdered Afghan “police” and “soldiers.” We have completely wacked out rules of engagement that fail to realize that the life any allied soldier is worth infinitely more that the live of any number of Afghanis.
Pick up. Go home. Next time we have an issue like this, use nukes and nerve gas.


17 posted on 10/10/2013 11:05:23 AM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: neverdem

Support and arm the Northern and Central Militias and (Northern Alliance).

Support several SF bases and AF based in/around the place.

Make the rest of the country a free fire zone.

And a Weapons Testing Range.

And the place for the Special Forces Qualification Course Final Exam.


18 posted on 10/10/2013 11:50:50 AM PDT by 2banana (My common ground with terrorists - they want to die for islam and we want to kill them)
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To: neverdem

Lessons learned from Afghanistan.

1) There was no government or social institutions left in Afghanistan when the US invaded. Searching for and trying to resuscitate failed and worthless systems out of “cultural sensitivity” was a disaster. What they desperately needed was a “MacArthur (PBUH) constitution”, as was given to Japan after World War II. In effect, a US military government.

2) Because the standard of living is wretchedly low in Afghanistan, their daily wage is tiny. For a mere $1 billion a year we could have employed every unemployed adult male Afghan in the south, and put them to work on labor intensive, giant public works programs to improve their nation, while keeping them away from radicals. Much of what they would be doing is creating a national road system, and rebuilding many of the towns in the south from scratch.

3) While the men were occupied, councils of women and only women would be in charge of running towns.

4) A very large, fortified boarding school in Kabul, part of a military base, would educate all orphans in the country to western standards. Any Afghan parents would then be able to enroll their children in there as well.

The purpose of this school would be to thoroughly train the next generation of Afghan leaders, who would take over from the military government. As part of their schooling, they would be taught patriotism, nationalism, and some degree of xenophobia about Pakistanis and Iranians.

5) Any insurgent who takes up arms against US personnel and is captured will be hung within 72 hours. If they do so in the name of radical Islam, then they will be buried in a pit with pig offal.


19 posted on 10/10/2013 12:12:21 PM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (The best War on Terror News is at rantburg.com)
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To: Little Ray
So in a fit of pique at our own current incompetent (or malevolent) politicians, we turn the country back over to our worst enemies, so they can plot yet another attack on us?

Obama has already inflicted defeat on the US over Iraq by effectively turning the country over to Iran: he can't wait to turn Afghanistan back over to al-Qaeda.

We will never win any foreign wars again unless we address our domestic traitors in the media and the Democratic Party first.

20 posted on 10/10/2013 12:45:43 PM PDT by pierrem15 (Claudius: "Let all the poisons that lurk in the mud hatch out.")
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To: pierrem15

We are never going to win a war again period.

We apparently signed that right away in the “Geneva Conventions on Land Warfare.” As they are currently interpreted, they say that we can’t do anything that might actually allow us to decisively win a war. I can’t imagine them being re-interpreted again in a rational fashion, nor can I imagine us ever doing the smart thing and withdrawing from them or ignoring them altogether.


21 posted on 10/10/2013 1:36:13 PM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: neverdem

The solution to Afghanistan is in Mecca.


22 posted on 10/10/2013 3:28:44 PM PDT by Talisker (One who commands, must obey.)
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To: Talisker
The solution to Afghanistan is in Mecca.

And the solution to Mecca is in a silo somewhere in the midwest! Or, maybe in a sub gliding quietly under the surface of the north Atlantic.

23 posted on 10/12/2013 10:11:34 AM PDT by ExSoldier (Stand up and be counted... OR LINE UP AND BE NUMBERED...)
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