Skip to comments.Weekly Investment & Finance Thread (Oct 14 - Oct. 18 edition)
Posted on 10/14/2013 3:27:53 AM PDT by expat_panama
This is the Weekly Investment & Finance Thread (Oct 14 - Oct. 18 edition)----
Trying to focus on the markets for today and each day and the economic news
This is where you can exchange some investment opinions and advice
If you see another FR economic thread you like and want to link to it here, please do
Post your favorite economic site links. Your favorite economic blogs and precious metals blogs and sites
Ping list -- on or off let me know here or via freep-mail. If I missed you then Freep-mail me
I might ping you to other interesting economic threads a few times a week. One per day maybe
Sites that posters have recommended ------
|Somebody that no longer posts pointed Aliska to freestockcharts.com. The candles help.
LiveFreeOrDie2001 says he learned A LOT on this free site: http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/
All things forex from different sources. Lots of forums for traders
Gold, Out of the Box Thinking etc...
Websites underbyte likes
http://www.itulip.com Site owner is an economist and predicted our current financial problems back in 1999
http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm Metals focused site with analysis
Happy Monday morning to all!. Last week we ended with Stocks Tack On More Gains, But Volume Slips but right now stock futures are tanking. This morning's news, such as it is...
Debt deal deadlock to weigh on stocks CNN - an hour ago Markets look set to erase some of last week's gains as investors lose confidence in Washington's ability to raise the all-important U.S.Is inflation a new risk for China's economy? CNBC.com - an hour ago Despite the rise in China's consumer prices to a seven-month high in September, economists say that inflation doesn't pose a risk for the world's second-largest economy.IMF chief warns a US default could spark recession BBC News - 6:01am The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has warned that a US default could tip the world into recession. In a US TV interview she said a default would result in "massive disruption the world over".Poll: Half of Older Workers Delay Retirement TIME - 38 minutes ago Like TIME on Facebook for more breaking news and current events from around the globe!
Someone posted the markets would fall with no deal and about 300 up on an announcement of a deal. No deal again today and another 300 up on announcement of a deal. Just got posted again. Governments ARE the economy. Was counting at church last night...about 10 people work for some government type entity, 3 for private sector. This is in a small town.
Me thinks it’ll be a good VXX day.
--or more precisely the economy is being squandered on the government.
Was thinking last night while the national debt's been bigger than all private debt, it's now gotten to be as big as the total value of all US businesses. OK, so with super low interest rates we may be getting by for now a day at a time but the America people are certifiably delusional if they think they can stay this way.
Again Friday afternoon I bought TZA on the expectations of no deal. We’ll see this morning if that pays off again.
Right. Last Friday seemed like a good day for me to buy a small 1/2 position but I’m thinking now that I’ll be glad I left sooo much in cash. Trading’s become so unstable (imho) that this is really not the kind of environment that a sane person can work with...
Speaking of Sand, oil and natural gas should be decent investments as the US goes into colder weather and more taxes. Small producers of NG, Oil and small refiners or pump operations will also produce.
Does anyone here have any advice or knowledge about the retro-fitting of the US Natural/Liquefied Natural Gas Export Terminals under conversion to Export Terminals? These would be great mid-term investment opportunities....
Funny you should mention it. A few years ago energy was about half my portfolio but these days I don’t seem to be seeing it showing up on my radar. Maybe time to tweak my radar again...
Pretty interesting thread over here
Obamanomics: M1 Multiplier and M2 Money Velocity Fall to New Lows, Labor Participation Collapsing
While yesterday ended up in still lower volume (Stocks Stage Upside Reversal In Lower Trade), Tuesday AM begins with stock futures slightly up. Looking like Uncle Uncertainty hasn't gone home yet...
--it was in post #40.
Fastinating. I can see why folks in Sept. ‘29 still thought market prices would continue to recover only to get hit with a 50% drop in October. Many people don’t realize that from ‘29 to ‘33 stocks lost 90% of their value!
(from here). It's the scale --since May 2012 we haven't had the 100% runup that there was in '28 and the beginning of '29.
Net margins, not earnings.
If you get a chance I’d be grateful for a link to the article; I tracked it down to Forbes and Chuck Jones but couldn’t find the context.
Though this morning's stock futures may be slightly up, yesterday's drop in higher volume took us back. Wrap up;
Stocks End Win Streak As D.C. Moves Still DominateBy Dave Graham and Michael O'Boyle. MEXICO CITY | Tue Oct 15, 2013 5:16pm EDT. MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Fiscal policy and politics risk undermining the efforts of central bankers to revive the global economy, top central bank officials warned on ...We've just had two big UK data releases - inflation and unemployment - which showed no dramatic improvement, but at least things aren't getting worse.
All the chattering classes are doing their best to talk down the markets, but it ain’t sticking.
You have to admire the American Businessman and Free Markets. Despite the efforts of the Marxists in Washington, they manage to survive, adapt, and prosper.
You mean the artificially pumped up stock market is going to fall on word that there is no deal to keep pumping fiat currency into the “economy”? This is rich....
Right now stock futures are soaring.
Still, two things have me addled. One is the way the Dow goes up in light trading and then falls with extremely active selling. It means most people expect and are working on a down turn. The other problem is that we're seeing the House cave on the budget battle and a return to normalcy. That means a continued collapse of the economy.
The article has it backwards: Central banks are blocking meaningful fiscal reform by juicing the economy.
Why are interest rates so low? I’m not wanting to argue with you. I enjoy your posts and comments, but really, do you think the Fed generated low interest rate environment isn’t juicing the economy?
What should have happened is that the banks, financial companies and investors who made bad bets took it in the shorts and savers and wise investors would move in, seeing value, and restart the economy. It would have been your typical “creative destruction”. The economy is made worse by Obama’s regulatory regime, but the Fed is abetting the runaway spending via ZIRP.
Why punish savers and the prudent? Interest rates would have gone up, attracting new money both domestic and foreign into our marketplace. Bargains would be snapped up and life would go on. It isn’t clear to me that the Fed’s intervention has made things better.
The debt ceiling debate would have been a whole lot different four years ago, it would have hobbled new government spending by Obama which has all been a misallocation of capital. With the Fed goosing the interest rate we can’t get there from here.
We’re in a credit depression that would have cleared quickly. Look at the very history you presented me. This is better?
OK.....WTheck is going on here????
And if this is true, well then.....
Yesterday indexes hit new highs; supposedly all is well because traders have their government funding, re- (Buyers Return To Stock Market As Congress Achieves Budget Compromise, and Asian markets cheer US deal to avoid debt default), but this morning stock futures are off:
Shutdown fight makes eBay cautious on holiday outlook USA TODAY - 3:36am SAN FRANCISCO - EBay shares fell Wednesday after the e-commerce company reported third-quarter results that included a cautious forecast for the crucial holiday shopping season.Greek union calls general strike for Nov 6 AP - Wed Oct 16, 1:37PM CDT ATHENS, Greece (AP) Greece's largest labor union has called a new general strike for Nov. 6, warning that unemployment has reached "nightmare" levels and that working rights are continually being eroded by austerity measures. (full story)
OK, so while before everything was ok but now the President’s been given unlimited spending power and our acct’s are frozen.
I need another cup of coffee...
I was reading about that Chase thing on here yesterday and I don’t think that’s any big deal. I think they are just trying to move people who use those services to a different type of business account.
"...We'll cancel any international transfers... ...you can't send domestic or international wire transfers from savings accounts... ...Thank you for choosing Chase. We look forward to serving all your financial needs. Sincerely..."
Good thing there is always a government job waiting for them. LOL
At least the Prez can’t take your property one day.
I see futures are going down more. I thought everybody would be rejoicing that our glorious government was back on the job.
Hopefully not, but we've been following a new trend that's been growing---
More than two decades ago, then-33-year-old Dan Price had a wife, two small children, a high-interest mortgage, and a stressful job as a photojournalist in Kentucky. He worried daily about money and the workaday grind.
I told myself, buck up and pay the bills, said Price. This is just the way normal life is.
Then he learned about what he calls the simple life.
---and this morning the wife and I were talking again about how we could cook in the fire place and I could put up a solar water heater. Lot's of people in this area that stay fat on the rice & beans growing on their front lawn. Amazing what's possible with a little effort and a good sense of humor...
yeah, going south...
We may all be headed for the “simple life”.
Well we have a credit down grade.
China Downgrades US Debt: Should Investors Care?
My niece speaks Chinese and Spanish and will be graduating with degrees in finance and Chinese linguistics.... I smell opportunity!!!!
How is Panama taking this news? It's a ways off but.....
Stock futures are up this morning after yesterdays strong showing (Stocks Roll Higher, And Nasdaq Volume Rises). My personal take is that traders have figured out that the US budget deal wasn't as one-sided as it'd seemed, though we won't find it in the news...
Dollar slides to 8-1/2 month lows on US economy worries Reuters - 9 hours ago By Jessica Mortimer. LONDON | Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:26am EDT. LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar fell to eight-and-a-half-month lows against the euro and a currency basket on Friday on speculation the fallout of this month's political impasse in the U.S.China growth data boost stock futures USA TODAY - 2 hours ago Accelerating economic growth in China was underwriting gains in U.S. stock futures Friday. Dow Jones industrial average index futures rose 0.2%, Standard & Poor's 500 index futures gained 0.2% and Nasdaq index futures added 0.5%.US gov't to release September jobs report Oct. 22 By CHRISTOPER S. RUGABER - AP - Thu Oct 17, 3:56PM CDT WASHINGTON (AP) The U.S. Labor Department will release the September employment report on Tuesday now that Congress has reopened the government. The report had been delayed 2½ weeks because of the partial government shutdown. (full story)
AFP - A Chinese ratings agency downgraded its US sovereign credit rating Thursday despite Washington's resolution of the debt ceiling deadlock, warning that fundamentals for a potential default remained "unchanged".
"The fundamental situation that the debt growth rate significantly outpaces that of fiscal income and gross domestic product remains unchanged,"
US grown scandals get as much traction in Panama as US grown coffee and bananas. Anyone who wants a real scandal comes straight to Panama where they're produced by experienced professionals...
fwiw, I just bot EGOV —it makes websites for state & local governments. didn’t see anything about Obamacare work but my bet is that it’s going to be a growth industry.
Maybe one of the few....
up 6% this AM in heavy trade; scores 99% on IBD’s checkup.
Alas I should have excerpted the mentioning that this rating agency is probably more of a Chinese publicity arm rather than an official rating agency. About the only good thing about T-bill’s interest is that my TSP G Fund will receive a nice bump.
Maybe not; the thing to remember about bond values is that when interest rates go up today on new bonds being sold, it means that the bonds you bought yesterday won't be worth as much when you try to sell them. Rising interest rates mean share prices of bond funds drop. Counter intuitive and I remember getting that question wrong on my college econ test, but I get reminded often on how it works.
Just the same, this Chinese rating downgrade appears to have the backing of the market place so I'll believe it. Contrast that to the downgrade Moodys (iirc) gave a few years ago that was followed by soaring values on US debt. Moodys ratings became a joke.