Posted on 10/15/2013 5:04:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Apparently, it’s become fashionable to wonder whether fissures in the GOP might eventually grow into a schism, with tea party candidates mounting independent challenges to the GOP in the 2014 elections. Last night, David Frum went a step farther, writing that a tea party exodus might actually help Republicans by freeing them of Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz, allowing the GOP to slide back to the political center. It's a centrist fantasy.
If Republicans think they have a pathway to victory without the tea party, they’re sorely mistaken. The tea party is not some small, fringe element of the Republican coalition. It's not the Buchanan 2000 vote, or something. The tea party is the Republican Party, at least as much as any single constituency can claim, with the possible and overlapping exception of Evangelicals.
According to a July Pew Research survey, Tea Party Republicans make up nearly half (49 percent) of the Republican primary electorate and fully 37 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners. So long as Democrats remain modestly unified, it is not conceivable that Republicans could compensate for the loss of anything near 37 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaners with gains among moderates and independents. Once a Republican realized there aren’t enough opportunities to win without the tea party, the centrist fantasy would come to an end. Republicans would immediately tack back to their right, in an effort to consolidate the Republican coalition.
Harry Truman’s success, cited by Frum, is the exception, not the rule. In 1948, Truman did face two third-party challenges, but they weren't comparable to jettisoning half of the Repubican base. Thurmond won 2.41 percent of the popular vote, Wallace won 2.37 percent. And when you look at the more significant third party challenges, like Perot, Wallace, or Theodore Roosevelt, it's hard to find one that goes so well for the suffering party.
A more recent is example is the 2010 gubernatorial contest in Colorado, when Tom Tancredo ran as a Constitution Party candidate. Unsurprisingly, neither Tancredo nor his Republican opponent, Dan Maes, made any inroads into the state’s Democratic coalition. As a result, Democrat John Hickenlooper easily prevailed over a divided field, winning by 15 points with just 51 percent of the vote. If conservatives want to divide themselves over tactical issues, that’s exactly the result they should expect.
However, the Tea Party could survive nicely without the GOP.
America cannot survive without the tea party
They’re also discounting the support a Tea Party would get from the growing number of independents that are fed up with both the R & D establishment liberal parties. Not all Tea Party types are Republicans at the moment - far from it.
It will not survive with it either.
Die, GOP, die.
Suffer while doing it.
But die, all the same.
Without the TEA Party the Republicans are just demoncRATS.
We are Tea Party but they have unconstitutionally persecuted us with tax assaults by the gestapo IRS. But it has not worked! We are still here. Tonight was our greatest victory in stopping the cave in with the help of Rush’s Heritage Action Foundation. It is an historic moment . REPEAL OBAMA CARE — CUT SPENDING __ and no more printed money. God Bless us even in our SIN.
I am no longer convinced that our country can survive with the GOP.... they have about 72 hours to convince me otherwise, but I don’t expect they will.
Obamacare MUST BE KILLED.
Ted Cruz is settled law.
The question of the “hidden vote” has preoccupied nerds for 50 years.
Is there one? Obviously, yes. Is it left or center or right? There is no evidence of a large hidden centrist vote. Barack Obama went hard left and found a lot of votes there.
I believe there is a much larger hidden right vote. No candidate since 1984 has asked for their votes. A lot of them voted for a paranoid dwarf in 1992 as a protest against center-seeking politicians.
There is no future for the Republicans except on the right. Maybe the votes are there, maybe not. But if not, we are f***ed anyway and have nothing to lose by trying.
2014 and 2016: Go White, go Right, or go home.
The socialist left would love to believe that the Republican party is being destroyed by the elected Tea Party members but the bikers, truckers, and vets in DC are there in support of the Tea Party positions. This is a great cross section of the red states and counties of our nation. It is going to get worse for the left as more and more people respond to the red state hate of socialism with their votes and with their feet.
There will be more Tea Party members in the house and the senate and there will be more citizens supporting their policies defying the jack booted thugs on the Washington mall.
The good for nothing and accomplished nothing occupy movement did in fact accomplish something. We know how not to rape, crap on cop cars, murder,and destroy other peoples property as we descend on Washington DC and our state capitals to protest the socialism that the president and democrats are pushing us into.
“Not all Tea Party types are Republicans at the moment - far from it.”
This is true. A lot of libertarians and leftist-anarchist types don’t like the government either. I know several leftist that constantly moan about the intrusive government that they steadfastly vote for.
The problem is how much common cause can be made with them?
With the libertarians there is a possibility but I am not so sure about the less intrusive government leftist.
When you look at what the less intrusive government leftist are saying their idea of a less intrusive government is one that:
a. does not limit abortion
b. ends the war on drugs
c. legalizes of drugs
d. abandons the military
e. adopts politically correct concepts
f. assumes both White Privilege and White Guilt
It is apparent that their idea of political heaven might be my idea of political hell.
Heard a Cornyn ad on the radio this afternoon (Texas). He’s back to the same old crap. Trying to find the Tea Party now that it’s time for reelection.
a tea party exodus might actually help Republicans by freeing them of Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz, allowing the GOP to slide back to the political center
wanting a balance budget is considered extreme right wing by the likes of frum
The democrats cannot survive without the republicans.
If the democrats are allowed free rein, they will destroy (not just hurt) this nation in three sessions of congress.
Right. Instead of calling them RINOs, why shouldn't we call the what they really are, demoncRATS?
Instead of calling them RINOs, why shouldn't we call the what they really are, demoncRATS?
Surplus, again, would be nice...
We shall see, but I suspect they might go the way of the whigs.
Whatever it takes to get “We The People” back..
They have been pulling the rug for so long, 99% of people my age don’t even have a clue (with the garbage/whitewash they have been teaching for decades).
Heck, I think if my 8th grade history teacher didn’t break his paddle on my a$$ after the first swing (was supposed to be 3).. I may have never even been interested in History, I hated that class.. wasn’t until that day.... no idea why, I changed then. :p
Went to HS.. Never made lower than 94 (in any classes).. and History was my favorite. BTW, he had moved to teaching HS.. he was one of my best teachers :D
Odd how teaching:
1: Responsibility
2: Discipline
3: Respect
Can actually work wonders, not only for yourself, but for the ‘environment’ around you.
And this was not directed at you.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.