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Posted on 10/16/2013 3:29:37 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
Consider for a moment what will come next for Obamacare, in the context of Ezra Klein’s five thoughts on the disastrous launch of the program – a bellwether of sorts for how the administration failed to live up to the expectations it sold to the law’s supporters and opinion leaders. There are a few different directions it can go from here, but the worst case scenario hasn’t really entered people’s consciences yet, in part because the insurers are staying quiet at the moment. The reality now is that the system is at least a month from actually working, and likelier two or (gasp) three, given the enormous range of problems. And that could make for a real disaster.
As it stands today, at most nine of the state exchanges are working… but while some systems are being announced as “fixed” on the state level, fixed in this case means the ability to look at plans, not to actually enroll. And the fundamental breakdown for the federal exchange hangs on a decision designed to insulate people from the true cost of plans – an approach which is now backfiring given the load it places on the website. The whole storyline is marked by a disturbing failure of basic technocracy: according to the New York Times, as late as the last week of September, HHS officials were still debating aspects of the site, including that requirement making customers
Democrats are scrambling for excuses: there wasn’t enough money or time. The decision to delay controversial regulations til after the 2012 election slowed the process. The Republican governors ruined efforts by opting not to implement exchanges. The suggestion that cronyism played a role in the contractor process is already being advanced. But cronyism or no, the decision of those at CMS/HHS to take the lead in organizing the program – despite an enormous absence of institutional experience – may be the real source of the problem. Megan McArdle outlines the reality:
I’m a longtime critic of federal contracting rules, which prevent some corruption at ruinous expense in money, quality and speed. But federal contracting rules are not what made the administration delay writing the rules and specifications necessary to build the system until 2013. Nor to delay the deadline for states to declare whether they’d be building an exchange, in the desperate hope that a few more governors might decide – in February 2013! – to build a state system after all. Any state that decided to start such a project at that
late date would have had little hope of building anything that worked, but presumably angry voters would be calling the governor instead of HHS. Federal contracting codes, so far as I am aware, do not emit intoxicating gases that might have caused senior HHS officials to decide that it was a good idea to take on the role of lead contractor – a decision equivalent to someone who has never even hung a picture deciding that they should become their own general contractor and build a house. Nor can those rules explain their lunatic response when they were told that the system was not working – “failure was not an option.”
But whether these excuses work with the public or not, the worst case scenario for Obamacare is now entering the realm of possibility: what if it just doesn’t work, and continues not to work, a month from now? The deadlines for achieving coverage are approaching fast. The political reality is that it’s impossible to legally require people to sign up for something when the system just won’t let them. If a month from now we are still seeing a fail rate of significance within these systems, where people trying to enroll are turned away as often (or more often!) than they get through, the pressure from non-partisan actors is going to explode for a delay of major aspects of the law. It will be a murmur at first, but if it continues to grow, there will have to be a Congressional response.
One factor to consider here is that the consultants involved for the federal and state exchanges have a good deal of overlap. It would be one thing if it were just a few states having issues – they could prioritize the major states over the minor ones – but the fact that the problems are worst for the federal exchange means none of the states are going to get significant attention until that’s taken care of. This could mean smaller states get attention last, leaving their citizens incapable of purchasing the coverage they’re legally required to get. The potential for legal challenges coming out of this is massive if the mandate/penalty is not delayed. But to solve the practical problem requires steps beyond just the individual mandate delay or extending open enrollment for the entire year – we’re talking about actually taking the exchanges offline (insurers would presumably honor the handful of plans already sold through them) in order to fix them. That process could take months of work and millions more in taxpayer dollars… and set us up to do this whole thing again in October of 2014.
So what’s the worst case scenario? Honestly, it’s this: if this is as big of a failure as it looks like at the moment, and the problems are not fixed within the next two months, the Obamacare project could end up backfiring in a way that could have dramatic effects on politics and policy going forward. It will contribute to distrust in government’s basic capability. It will fail to live up to its promise, and wreck the insurance markets for no good purpose. It will represent the administration betraying its strongest supporters. And it may ultimately leave President Obama wishing John Roberts had ruled the other way – turning him into a martyr for the cause as opposed to putting the burden of proof on actually implementing his signature policy.
Thank you very much!!
If Obama were rational he would DELAY ObamaCare implementation for a year to fix the horrible software but since he's not, it's now doomed to FAIL bigtime. Drop dead date appears to be December 15. And I don't think the software system can be fixed by then. That's what Obama gets for awarding the software contract to the highest bundler.
I’m having some vicious thoughts. Imagine Valerie Jarrett pushing herself into the oval office, grabbing bammy by the nuts and screeching WTF?
OMG! You STILL think it's supposed to WORK????
I’m having some vicious thoughts. Imagine Valerie Jarrett pushing herself into the oval office, grabbing bammy by the nuts and screeching WTF?
“It will contribute to distrust in government’s basic capability.”
That’s it? That the people will no longer trust government or obama? I read this entire article to learn that this is the ultimate price of an obamacare collapse?
No one goes to jail? No one is fined? No one is executed?
Basically an obamacare failure will mean nothing to TPTB.
They spend years trying to fix it and it eventually bankrupts the U.S.
Thw worst case scenario is that Obamacare does get implemented! It will be impossible to unf*ck and we will see a substantial collapse of healthcare. and, as usual, the people they claimed it would help will be hurt the most.
Whether the websites work will not be a determining factor in success or failure. Seventy-six percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. They don’t have an additional $2500-10,000 dollars to spend on insurance. Then, there’s the deductible of $5,000-18,000 dollars. Where will that money come from?
Obamacare will fail because 76% of the people couldn’t pay for it even if they wanted to.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/06/24/pf/emergency-savings/
What do you think its purpose is?
Wait till next year when people see their “tax” go up for health care under Obamacare. It’s built in. Register once and they got you!!
Another doom scenario for Bongocare is a massive hack and theft of personal information from the database. I actually hope the hackers steal the information of the 5000 that may have signed up already.
People will realize that their information is not safe.
failure was the plan. high costs were the plan. sticker shock was the plan. having tens of millions of people pay into a plan they will never use or pay a fine was the plan.
Now we need to prevent them from controlling the congress in 2014 so we can stop the attempt to throw a few more trillion dollars at in order to “save everyone’s healthcare”. By 2016, the nationalization will be complete.
O should have taken the Republicans up on their offer to delay. As this means continues to roll out people from all walks will turn on him. You wait. Medicare Advantage just dropped my 86 year old MIL. Now we have to scramble to find her another supplemental plan. Her doctor of decades isn’t on any of those offered. It will really hit the fan when open enrollment goes I to full swing across the country. Companies have been waiting to see how this shakes out. The horror stories Are already emerging. There will be no way to sugar coat the “law of the land”. Blowback will be huge.
O should have taken the Republicans up on their offer to delay. As this mess continues to roll out people from all walks will turn on him. You wait. Medicare Advantage just dropped my 86 year old MIL. Now we have to scramble to find her another supplemental plan. Her doctor of decades isn’t on any of those offered. It will really hit the fan when open enrollment goes I to full swing across the country. Companies have been waiting to see how this shakes out. The horror stories Are already emerging. There will be no way to sugar coat the “law of the land”. Blowback will be huge.
heck my eldest is 43 working PT thanks to the GREAT OBAMA DEPRESSION, no ins. Wife is a CNA on sick leave for stage 3 breast cancer, starts chemo on the 30th, and since she works in health care, she won’t be going back to work. Neither job offers health care. She is on Indiana Breast and Cervical Cancer Medicaid, and if he works more hours she loses that coverage thus her chance to live. He is a type 2 diabetic, they have a 12 year old that nearly got kicked out of school over 2 lousy unneeded vaccines.
I’d say about the same as hitler’s!
Check out DAMAGED CARE http://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/Damaged-Care/60025253?strkid=759129783_0_0&strackid=539b49d9416ec182_0_srl&trkid=222336
THAT IS THE NETFLIX WEB SITE, AND ALSO AVAILABLE FROM AMAZON, THE TRUE STORY OF THE DEATH PANELS IN THE HMO’S.
Check out DAMAGED CARE http://dvd.netflix.com/Movie/Damaged-Care/60025253?strkid=759129783_0_0&strackid=539b49d9416ec182_0_srl&trkid=222336
THAT IS THE NETFLIX WEB SITE, AND ALSO AVAILABLE FROM AMAZON, THE TRUE STORY OF THE DEATH PANELS IN THE HMO’S.
Obama is a train wreck
National Insurance companies are destroyed
People lost their full-time jobs
People were cut in hrs to part time
No one has health insurance
and the list goes on and on....
The news media needs to be held accountable for this - they lied and covered up as much as the Democrats did...
I hope in 2014 people realized the Democrats are NO GOOD POS - they cost alot of people valuable time - retirement - lost wages - lost personal insurance that was better - and a host of other things all because some coke addict stretched face whore out in California wanted to shove this idiot health plan down the throats of US Citizens...nice everyone else gets a break from it — oh no - not the LEGAL citizen....
Time to flush the toilet - Wash DC stinks! The Illegal population needs to be run out of the US - the Federal Govt needs to be out of health insurance realm - the real-estate markets - private business bailouts - unions - and airport security....enough is enough!
She probably does THAT every half hour
Obamacare is not the endgame.
It is only one of many tools being used to accomplish the overall goal of wrecking the US economy.
It is no longer about a “worse case” FOR Obamacare... it is more of a matter of “Best case” for maintaining freedom in this country... and each day that passes without a willingness to remove these people from power for their blatant attempts to undermine and unravel the constitution is another second lost diffusing the time bomb attached to the US dollar.
My guess is there’s less than a minute left on the clock, and it looks like Barney Fife is the one trying to diffuse the bomb... and he is spending all his time waving off Andy Taylor for getting in the way.
Greatest fear:
can’t afford any premium or deductible,
can’t pay fine,
opt out of all health care,
IRS garnishes wages or,
IRS takes money from paycheck or,
IRS places lien on your home.
This will happen folks. IMO
Your scenario will happen to groups that are not most favored by the regime.
Obama’s playbook is to reward his friends and punish his enemies.
Revenge.
You're in open heart surgery. President for life Obama is telling congress he will not accept "NO" for his 3 trillion dollar budget and blanket amnesty for the continent of South America. It's a budget impass an the government shutdown begins.
Mid-surgery, your doctor gets a verbal message from a man in a black suit. The man has a gun holster on a shiny belt. The surgeon looks afraid, but then steps back and snaps off his rubber gloves ans states "Government's shutdown, I can't proceed with this surgery..." and walks out of the room. You observe the scene floating 10 feet above. The room goes blurry...
You beat me to it, as that was also my initial thought. One problem is that the genie has already begun to escape from the bottle, as peoples' lives are already being negatively impacted by the massive changes that forced on insurance companies and businesses that have altered their policies and employment practices.
Let's say what we consider the best-case scenario occurs: for whatever reason, Obamacare is completely dissolved. Are the changes that have been made going to be undone?
There may be a reasonable expectation that insurance plan changes that are set to become effective in January may be withdrawn so that they rates and coverages remain at their current levels. Maybe. How about employees whose hours have been cut to below part-time status and/or had a portion of their former hours assumed by new part-time hires?
While the complete destruction of Obamacare beats the complete destruction of our society hands-down, we have suffered a wound equivalent to a flesh-eating virus that becomes more life-threatening every day and leaves us irrevocably damaged even if we survive.
Allowing Zero and 0bamunists to unilaterally tweak, amend and revise this piece of crap is a tacit approval of the tweaks and revisions he’s already gotten away with.
The ONLY correction for this fiasco is to scrap it all together. Get rid of it. Stop the madness.
The pubbies DO NOT need to fund it from the House; Tokyo Rove’s ‘insights’ notwithstanding.
“Obama’s playbook is to reward his friends and punish his enemies”
That’s probably why he included the ‘Register To Vote’ on one of his screens.
That it exists.
Next question?
Klinton gave us motor/voter
baraq gives us doctor/voter.
Register for obamacare, registered to vote democrat.
Can’t make it to the polls? No problemo, we will vote for you, multiple times.
Vote republican? Oh dear, looks like all your medical records were lost in a tragic fire and any doctor that tries to treat you will mysteriously get a visit from the IRS.
Too bad the repubs in dc can’t see this coming. And it will happen to them as well.
Simple truth: The people killing themselves to try to enroll are probably the sickest ones. Self-selection is part of the reason Obamacare is doomed. The only way it will work is by dramatically increasing the bribe...I mean subsidy for people to sign up. The cost to the government would then skyrocket, but hey, what’s another few trillion dollars added to the national debt?
Worst case scenario is people realize they were lied to, and are helpless to change it as they voted enough Dems in to control any attempt to do anything with it.
Then the single payer scam will occur as the solution.
Worst case scenario is people realize they were lied to, and are helpless to change it as they voted enough Dems in to control any attempt to do anything with it.
Then the single payer scam will occur as the solution.
Credit Cards, 401K loans, home loans, or relatives?
I don’t have an answer here but one thought does come to mind. Obomacare was a CREATED POLITICAL problem. It was not real. People were getting medical care, but the govt was not controlling it. (as much).
It should have be a state issue with 50 solutions competing for what worked better.
The best I can tell is that the cost of everything at least doubles under ACA for healthy people. So someone that has a gold or platinum plan now will only be able to afford the bronze plan com the first of the year. I fiddled with a few numbers for my zip code. Even people that are eligible for a bit of subsidy under ACA will still be paying more in premiums than if they bought coverage in 2013..
Yes, I think the software was supposed to work. It was supposed to hook people into the system as quickly and efficiently as possible.
The ramifications weren’t supposed to actually kick in until down the road.
If Obama was smart he’d cave “for the good of the country” and give the Republicans their one year delay. If the Republicans were smart they’d cave first, removing all obstacles to full legal implementation ... Of a collapsed software system.
There’s a time, when playing tug of war, that you just let go of the rope and let the other side fall on their a&&es for the whole world to see. It’s time for the Republicans to let go of the rope ...
Worst Case: All the Insurance companies leave the program.
They spend years trying to fix it and it eventually bankrupts the U.S.
Agreed.
This story is all off the point.
What should scare everyone is the idea that the rinos will try to fix it, first by postponing implementation, as they are now discussing, then later making one change after another....ending up with an even more cumbersome impossible to understand law without paying someone, just as we now must do to understand our tax law.
A nightmare of lawyers, tax accountants, health counsellors who probably will be lawyers, thousands of dollars and countless hours per family wasted.
Magnified by 1000 for small businesses...
The best case scenario is that we defund it now and totally repeal it in 2014.
Nobody thought this through. Some people say it's deliberate sabotage; I suspect not. It's just a mess created by all the greedy *astards that could do so having their own agendas written into the law.
What happens when people get sick out of state, or what about those who split their time between two (or more) residences?
You have to buy insurance that offers coverage out of network or has nationwide coverage. I don't think ACA does away with any of those. I wouldn't think that people that are seeking subsidized health insurance on the exchanges would be candidates for that type of coverage unless they were retirees.
And then there's that situation with deductibles. What about people who can't pay them?
If it is a non life threatening procedure, some providers may want the cash up front. That means having a line of credit available if there isn't cash in the bank.
You know, after reading through all of the articles and posts today, I’m in rump-kicking mode, but not Dem rump.
We need to innovate, adjust, and come together to figure out how we’re going to get through this without the government’s involvement. And then we need to compete against the government with ideas that improve American lives without their help or approval.
There’s just too much conservative hand-wringing going on. Ideas, coordination and action are what we need.
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