Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

What’s The Worst Case Scenario For Obamacare?
Heartland.org ^ | October 16, 2013 | by Benjamin Domenech

Posted on 10/16/2013 1:16:16 PM PDT by 11th_VA

Consider for a moment what will come next for Obamacare, in the context of Ezra Klein’s five thoughts on the disastrous launch of the program – a bellwether of sorts for obamacare-logo_fullhow the administration failed to live up to the expectations it sold to the law’s supporters and opinion leaders.

There are a few different directions it can go from here, but the worst case scenario hasn’t really entered people’s consciences yet, in part because the insurers are staying quiet at the moment. The reality now is that the system is at least a month from actually working, and likelier two or (gasp) three, given the enormous range of problems. And that could make for a real disaster.

As it stands today, at most nine of the state exchanges are working… but while some systems are being announced as “fixed” on the state level, fixed in this case means the ability to look at plans, not to actually enroll. And the fundamental breakdown for the federal exchange hangs on a decision designed to insulate people from the true cost of plans – an approach which is now backfiring given the load it places on the website. The whole storyline is marked by a disturbing failure of basic technocracy: according to the New York Times, as late as the last week of September, HHS officials were still debating aspects of the site, including that requirement making customers register before shopping for insurance.

Democrats are scrambling for excuses: there wasn’t enough money or time. The decision to delay controversial regulations til after the 2012 election slowed the process. The Republican governors ruined efforts by opting not to implement exchanges. The suggestion that cronyism played a role in the contractor process is already being advanced. But cronyism or no, the decision of those at CMS/HHS to take the lead in organizing the program – despite an enormous absence of institutional experience – may be the real source of the problem. Megan McArdle outlines the reality:

"I’m a longtime critic of federal contracting rules, which prevent some corruption at ruinous expense in money, quality and speed. But federal contracting rules are not what made the administration delay writing the rules and specifications necessary to build the system until 2013. Nor to delay the deadline for states to declare whether they’d be building an exchange, in the desperate hope that a few more governors might decide – in February 2013! – to build a state system after all. Any state that decided to start such a project at that late date would have had little hope of building anything that worked, but presumably angry voters would be calling the governor instead of HHS. Federal contracting codes, so far as I am aware, do not emit intoxicating gases that might have caused senior HHS officials to decide that it was a good idea to take on the role of lead contractor – a decision equivalent to someone who has never even hung a picture deciding that they should become their own general contractor and build a house. Nor can those rules explain their lunatic response when they were told that the system was not working – “failure was not an option.”

But whether these excuses work with the public or not, the worst case scenario for Obamacare is now entering the realm of possibility: what if it just doesn’t work, and continues not to work, a month from now? The deadlines for achieving coverage are approaching fast. The political reality is that it’s impossible to legally require people to sign up for something when the system just won’t let them. If a month from now we are still seeing a fail rate of significance within these systems, where people trying to enroll are turned away as often (or more often!) than they get through, the pressure from non-partisan actors is going to explode for a delay of major aspects of the law. It will be a murmur at first, but if it continues to grow, there will have to be a Congressional response.

One factor to consider here is that the consultants involved for the federal and state exchanges have a good deal of overlap. It would be one thing if it were just a few states having issues – they could prioritize the major states over the minor ones – but the fact that the problems are worst for the federal exchange means none of the states are going to get significant attention until that’s taken care of. This could mean smaller states get attention last, leaving their citizens incapable of purchasing the coverage they’re legally required to get. The potential for legal challenges coming out of this is massive if the mandate/penalty is not delayed. But to solve the practical problem requires steps beyond just the individual mandate delay or extending open enrollment for the entire year – we’re talking about actually taking the exchanges offline (insurers would presumably honor the handful of plans already sold through them) in order to fix them. That process could take months of work and millions more in taxpayer dollars… and set us up to do this whole thing again in October of 2014.

So what’s the worst case scenario? Honestly, it’s this: if this is as big of a failure as it looks like at the moment, and the problems are not fixed within the next two months, the Obamacare project could end up backfiring in a way that could have dramatic effects on politics and policy going forward. It will contribute to distrust in government’s basic capability. It will fail to live up to its promise, and wreck the insurance markets for no good purpose. It will represent the administration betraying its strongest supporters. And it may ultimately leave President Obama wishing John Roberts had ruled the other way – turning him into a martyr for the cause as opposed to putting the burden of proof on actually implementing his signature policy.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: obamacare
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-65 next last

1 posted on 10/16/2013 1:16:16 PM PDT by 11th_VA
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

It imposes a 29 1/2 hour work week, what do you think that will do to America?


2 posted on 10/16/2013 1:18:30 PM PDT by sr4402
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Come late December, Obama could be asking for a 1 year delay in the ‘Individual Mandate’. The GOP shud say, “let’s negotiate - what else are you offering ...” LOL !!!!


3 posted on 10/16/2013 1:18:58 PM PDT by 11th_VA (I want a president who won't enforce tax laws ...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

The worse case scenario?

Give it 6 months and you will be soaking in it, Madge.


4 posted on 10/16/2013 1:20:24 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: sr4402

Divorced parents will be sunk first.

Existing child support orders are 25 to 50 % of net income (if they are behaving)

The extra load will put them under n droves.


5 posted on 10/16/2013 1:20:26 PM PDT by Pikachu_Dad (Impeach Sen Quinn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA
What’s The Worst Case Scenario For Obamacare?

Where do you even start?

6 posted on 10/16/2013 1:20:29 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Who but a TYRANT shoves down another man's throat what he has exempted himself from?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

turning him into a martyr for the cause

The day he becomes a detriment to the party
he WILL be martyred, communists are like that.


7 posted on 10/16/2013 1:20:42 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

It destroys the American economy.....


8 posted on 10/16/2013 1:23:34 PM PDT by SECURE AMERICA (Where can I go tave atteno sign for the American Revolution 2013 and the Crusades 2013?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

There is no downside - it is all sweetness, good intentions and “healthcare for all.”

Problems will be minimized or not mentioned at all. Instead, the media will talk about nasty Ted Cruz, or twerking.


9 posted on 10/16/2013 1:24:28 PM PDT by PGR88
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

We all die...................


10 posted on 10/16/2013 1:26:16 PM PDT by Red Badger (TANSTAAFL always wins. Always...........................)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Everyone, collectivist and conservative, is looking to the government to fix this.

That is wrong thinking. There are no wise people in government.

Real thinking people outside of the beltway need to come up with solutions to this mess, and just do it without government.


11 posted on 10/16/2013 1:26:37 PM PDT by lurk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

The only thing worse than this crap legislation not working is this crap legislation working. Americans will be better off if this idiotic administration never makes it work.


12 posted on 10/16/2013 1:27:20 PM PDT by pallis
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: sr4402

ObamaCare guideS watching porn spread virus shutting down ObamaCare,HHS, insurance companies....


13 posted on 10/16/2013 1:28:01 PM PDT by Bulwinkle (Alec, a.k.a. Daffy Duck)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Fool. Doesn’t he know the press will spin this as the Republicans’ fault?


14 posted on 10/16/2013 1:29:24 PM PDT by pabianice
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Some things like our food supply, our economy, religion, and health care are too important to trust government with.


15 posted on 10/16/2013 1:29:34 PM PDT by freedomfiter2 (Brutal acts of commission and yawning acts of omission both strengthen the hand of the devil.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA
Cost necessarily skyrockets.
Access becomes more difficult.
Politics enters the equation of who gets care and when.
Death panels decide who lives and who dies.
Political party membership pressure increases.
Hackers steal personal information.
Qualified students opt out of medical careers.
It becomes increasingly common to have language barriers with physicians.
Individual life style choices come under scrutiny and regulation based on perceived cost to "the state".
16 posted on 10/16/2013 1:30:22 PM PDT by Amagi (Lenin: "Socialized Medicine is the Keystone to the Arch of the Socialist State.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA
A possible worst case scenario: Obamacare fails miserably, and the communists get what they always wanted— government run single payer, universal “health care.”
17 posted on 10/16/2013 1:30:53 PM PDT by fatnotlazy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Always said...best thing that could have happened to Barry would be if SCOTUS had struck it down. He could have then just walked away, told his supporters “I tried!” and blamed it all on John Roberts.


18 posted on 10/16/2013 1:31:57 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Worst case? It is implemented, destroys the economy, and what remaining power held by Congress is transferred to the Executive by all the “shall determines” in it.


19 posted on 10/16/2013 1:34:22 PM PDT by Ingtar (The NSA - "We're the only part of government who actually listens to the people.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

“Come late December, Obama could be asking for a 1 year delay in the ‘Individual Mandate’.”

He won’t ask. He will just do it and nobody in Congress will stop him.


20 posted on 10/16/2013 1:34:59 PM PDT by Proud2BeRight
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Buckeye McFrog
...if this is as big of a failure as it looks like at the moment, and the problems are not fixed within the next two months, the Obamacare project could end up backfiring in a way that could have dramatic effects on politics and policy going forward. It will contribute to distrust in government’s basic capability. It will fail to live up to its promise, and wreck the insurance markets for no good purpose. It will represent the administration betraying its strongest supporters. And it may ultimately leave President Obama wishing John Roberts had ruled the other way
21 posted on 10/16/2013 1:35:18 PM PDT by 11th_VA (I want a president who won't enforce tax laws ...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Obamacare IS the worse case scenario.


22 posted on 10/16/2013 1:35:33 PM PDT by Proud2BeRight
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: sr4402
It imposes a 29 1/2 hour work week, what do you think that will do to America?

It will be the turd-worlding of America and 0bumble will have achieved his goal.

23 posted on 10/16/2013 1:36:16 PM PDT by luvbach1 (We are finished.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Cats and dogs living together...pretty much all the worst parts from the Bible.


24 posted on 10/16/2013 1:36:16 PM PDT by EEGator
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: fatnotlazy

Single payer only happens if a convincing argument can be made that the private sector/corporatist option failed.

Healthcare.gov is simply collapsing too fast to pin the blame on the healthcare industry. Obama and the Dems OWN it. Come next year they’re going to be begging for the very delay the Republicans lost trying to bring about.


25 posted on 10/16/2013 1:37:46 PM PDT by tanknetter
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

First of all, it’s not a healthcare bill. It’s an insurance program.

When all of these people get insurance, where do you think they are going to go for care? There are no doctors. And they will be camping out at the Community Hospital ERs. They will not pay their co pays or deductibles. Hospitals will have to eat that.

Community hospitals will shut down because of increased cost and less income.

That’s just the medical side.


26 posted on 10/16/2013 1:44:33 PM PDT by Vermont Lt ( 1-800-318-2596, Mr President.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tanknetter
Come next year they’re going to be begging for the very delay the Republicans lost trying to bring about.

Let me modify that. They won't beg for any delay, they'll simply change the law to suit them and delay it themselves.

27 posted on 10/16/2013 1:47:20 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Some people meet their heroes. I raised mine. Go Army.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA
It will fail to live up to its promise, and wreck the insurance markets for no good purpose.

There's a good purpose for wrecking private insurance markets? Really?

28 posted on 10/16/2013 1:48:35 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Some people meet their heroes. I raised mine. Go Army.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Make no mistake, the congressional “fix” will be single payer.

This was all planned.


29 posted on 10/16/2013 1:49:46 PM PDT by Baldwin77
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

As MANDATORY, 0bamacare website will register MILLIONS of illegal-aliens-turned-U.S.-citizens to the DEMOCRAT party.


30 posted on 10/16/2013 1:54:28 PM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America (If Americans were as concerned for their country as Egyptians are, Obama would be ousted!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Vermont Lt
"Fundamentally transforming" both medical insurance AND education, Obama is "fundamentally transforming" us all into slaves.

The devil has a keen wit by getting a protected negro to do the enslaving.

31 posted on 10/16/2013 1:54:29 PM PDT by Slyfox
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: PGR88

Do nothing.
Refuse to negotiate.
After the names good people have been called by Obama.
After Reid’s insults to the other party.
After the libel against the Tea Party.
After the disrespect shown to military families.
After the disrespect leveled at veterans.
After the accusations against the Catholics and their church.....
and on and on
I would not lift a finger to save the dirty democrat progressive socialists that have brought this to the people. Nothing.


32 posted on 10/16/2013 1:55:04 PM PDT by Rapscallion (With more E-mail and telephone surveillance do you feel more secure?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Proud2BeRight
He won’t ask. He will just do it and nobody in Congress will stop him.

I don't believe HE will do anything. He is incapable of making a decision and will continue to fiddle in denial while healthcare burns.

I'll bet a bottle of good liquor (your/my choice) that the exchanges will still not be working March 31, 2014. I've seen software project meltdowns before, and this one is a doozie! They are going to have to trash the whole thing and redesign/rewrite from scratch.

33 posted on 10/16/2013 1:57:03 PM PDT by 6ppc (It's torch and pitchfork time)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: tanknetter
You underestimate the libs and their media accomplices. Already, the message is that any problems are the fault of those greedy insurance companies, and that the only fix is for the government to take over. As more and more low information voters find out how expensive this “free” healthcare is going to be under Obamacare, they will be easily induced to pressure lawmakers for government-run healthcare.
34 posted on 10/16/2013 2:05:07 PM PDT by fatnotlazy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 25 | View Replies]

To: Colonel_Flagg
There's a good purpose for wrecking private insurance markets?

Private insurance companies wrote most of the bill. It boggles my mind how so many people fail to accept that. Let's peek at their stock prices today (I know, Wall Street perception isn't "proof," but it's quick and dirty for now.)

Aetna
United Healthcare
Cigna
Humana

On and on. It's like this every day. Is there risk? Sure there is, but it was a calculated risk by the insurance companies all along and it has been, thus far, pretty damn good for them. They sure as hell don't want single payer, and since they are the top lobbyists in Washington (#1 or #2 anyway), I can't see that happening anytime soon.
35 posted on 10/16/2013 2:05:28 PM PDT by whattajoke (Let's keep Conservatism real.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: whattajoke

In general, I still prefer free markets to government control.


36 posted on 10/16/2013 2:13:43 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Some people meet their heroes. I raised mine. Go Army.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: 6ppc

“will still not be working March 31, 2014. I’ve seen software project meltdowns before, and this one is a doozie! They are going to have to trash the whole thing and redesign/rewrite from scratch. “

And are you certain this can’t be written from scratch in that time?


37 posted on 10/16/2013 2:13:50 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Colonel_Flagg

Well, sure. And they prefer artificial “forced” markets above all.

And let’s be honest here, we have no “free market” for health CARE at all - and that would be quite difficult to create/maintain. And really, that’s the crux of the cost issue.


38 posted on 10/16/2013 2:18:16 PM PDT by whattajoke (Let's keep Conservatism real.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

What happens if you refuse to go along?


39 posted on 10/16/2013 2:19:07 PM PDT by Leep (Peak oil? We have reached peak debt!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Leep
What happens if you refuse to go along?

The IRS dings you and not only do you owe the government money, but you don't have any healthcare coverage. Cute system.

40 posted on 10/16/2013 2:23:20 PM PDT by Billthedrill
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

I’m no computer expert, but there’s not enough bandwidth to handle anything close to routine traffic.


41 posted on 10/16/2013 2:25:21 PM PDT by Night Hides Not (The Tea Party was the earthquake, and Chick Fil A the tsunami...100's of aftershocks to come.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

The worst case scenario of O-Care is exactly what Obama would like to see happening.

Mission accomplished — another nail in the US coffin.


42 posted on 10/16/2013 2:25:29 PM PDT by 353FMG ( I don't say whether I am serious or sarcastic -- I respect FReepers too much.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 6ppc

You gotta be an industrial strength optimist-—March 31 is half a year away!!. If it lasts anywhere near that long I’ll bring a bottle over and we’ll share it while it eats itself the rest of the way. I don’t see needing more than one bottle when this hermaphrodite starts eating its own skin-—it just won’t take long.


43 posted on 10/16/2013 2:45:04 PM PDT by cherokee1 (skip the names---just kick the buttz)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Vermont Lt
That’s just the medical side. And very soon, when medical care becomes a rationed government service, an (R) party affiliation will constitute screening criteria to deny care.

One party rule is here.

44 posted on 10/16/2013 2:47:57 PM PDT by Jacquerie (An Article V amendment convention is our only hope.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Night Hides Not
I’m no computer expert, but there’s not enough bandwidth to handle anything close to routine traffic.

Did you accidentally comment on the wrong thread? No indication that insufficient bandwidth has anything to do with the website failures. However, they'd love for that to be the case since it would be so easy to fix.

45 posted on 10/16/2013 2:53:04 PM PDT by steve86 (Some things aren't really true but you wouldn't be half surprised if they were.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Why should he ask? He didn’t ask for the employer mandate delay. His Imperial Majesty King Stompyfoot the Bamster will simply issue a decree.


46 posted on 10/16/2013 2:53:58 PM PDT by Ronin (Dumb, dependent and Democrat is no way to go through life - Rep. L. Gohmert, Tex)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA
What’s The Worst Case Scenario For Obamacare?

Other than your death?

47 posted on 10/16/2013 2:55:34 PM PDT by upsdriver ( Palin/West '16)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Rapscallion

Boycott the lamestream media. Cancel your Comcast/NBC cable subscription. And avoid businesses that employ ‘ill eagles’.


48 posted on 10/16/2013 3:13:44 PM PDT by rfp1234 (Impeach We Much!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Even if the web site gets fixed, enrollment will be dismal especially among the younger generation. Given low enrollment due to the high cost and questionable access to the promised subsidies coupled with the likely repeal of some of the new taxes funding Obamacare, the system will go broke in a year and even more people will be without health insurance. The Democrats fix will be to pass a single payer socialized medicine plan of course exempting Congress and government officials who will enjoy a Cadillac plan unavailable to the peons.


49 posted on 10/16/2013 4:04:39 PM PDT by The Great RJ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 11th_VA

Simple question. No one signs up.


50 posted on 10/16/2013 4:13:00 PM PDT by Right Wing Assault (Dick Obama is more inexperienced now than he was before he was elected.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-65 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson