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Bettor's Verdict: GOP could lose the House
Marketwatch ^ | 10/18/13

Posted on 10/18/2013 10:40:32 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper

Next year’s midterm elections for Congress are now a tossup between the Republicans and the Democrats, according to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets — the only sportsbook in America allowed to bet on U.S. elections.

Nancy Pelosi’s chances of leading the Democrats to a House majority have more than doubled in less than a month to about 50% as a result of the government-shutdown fiasco, according to betting on the exchange.

And the Republicans, who appeared to have a lock on the elections just a few weeks ago, have seen their chances collapse at the same time.

Back in September, oddsmakers gave the Republicans a one-in-four chance of gaining seats, improving their overall control of the lower house. That’s now down to one-in-twenty. (The numbers sometimes don’t add up to 100% because of trading spreads.)

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: 2014; 2014election; 2016election; election2014; election2016; fantasy; hype; nancypelosi; obamacare; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; teaparty; tedcruz; texas
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Just gleefully reported on Miami "news" radio.

Smells like dung.

1 posted on 10/18/2013 10:40:32 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Smells like what it is.


2 posted on 10/18/2013 10:42:28 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: SoFloFreeper

People like this are prisoners of the moment, and conventional wisdom. As Obama Care’s reality rolls out, and Cruz continues to be vindicated, the numbers will look foolish.


3 posted on 10/18/2013 10:43:21 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Wishful thinking, fantasy projection.


4 posted on 10/18/2013 10:43:32 AM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Glee and laughter will soon to be turn into lamenting and gnashing of teeth.


5 posted on 10/18/2013 10:43:48 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: SoFloFreeper

Bookies are BS


6 posted on 10/18/2013 10:44:42 AM PDT by bigbob (The best way to get a bad law repealed is to enforce it strictly. Abraham Lincoln)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Michael Barone and Charlie Cook both say that there are only ten seats up for grabs.


7 posted on 10/18/2013 10:45:03 AM PDT by Mikey_1962 (Obama: The Affirmative Action President.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

8 posted on 10/18/2013 10:45:24 AM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: SoFloFreeper

They’re gonna need more cowbell in order to do so!


9 posted on 10/18/2013 10:46:19 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (I’m not a Republican, I'm a Conservative! Pubbies haven't been conservative since before T.R.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Conservative Republicans in the House & Senate should threaten to change parties now and teach the GOPe a lesson. Joe Lieberman made that threat and the dems started tip toeing around as to not upset the guy to leave them as a minority party in the Senate.

Also, if we lose when we primary Boehner & his ilk, continue to run against the RINOs as an independent. Worst case scenario, a real democrat will beat them. Better to have a real democrat holding a seat then a McCain-like candidate who tries to redefine conservatism.


10 posted on 10/18/2013 10:47:15 AM PDT by tsowellfan (www.cafenetamerica.com)
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To: SoFloFreeper

As I recall in 2010, Pelosi was saying up until the day before the election that the Dems would increase their hold on the House.


11 posted on 10/18/2013 10:48:07 AM PDT by circlecity
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To: SoFloFreeper

I guess they will lose it, just like after the last “shutdown”.


12 posted on 10/18/2013 10:48:11 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: Mikey_1962

A month from now the attention deficit crowd will completely forget there was a shutdown. But we won’t.


13 posted on 10/18/2013 10:49:14 AM PDT by refermech
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To: SoFloFreeper

Folks are gonna be voting their wallets next Fall. They will have been enjoying their OCare benefits for 10 months by then, and will have a few things to say about it.


14 posted on 10/18/2013 10:49:25 AM PDT by lurk
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To: C. Edmund Wright
As Obama Care’s reality rolls out, and Cruz continues to be vindicated, the numbers will look foolish.

Don't be so damnedly commonsensical......

It's obviously time to panic and pass amnesty.

15 posted on 10/18/2013 10:52:12 AM PDT by Lakeshark (Mr Reid, tear down this law!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Lonegan, a tea party guy, just came within 10 points of Booker in the senate race in Jersey. Romney, the moderate, lost by 20. This is all bs as far as the House goes. The Republicans even have a chance to take the senate though it doesn’t matter. Too many McCain republicans to do any good.


16 posted on 10/18/2013 10:52:56 AM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: Lakeshark

...u right...sorry.....never use common sense again!!!!


17 posted on 10/18/2013 10:53:19 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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To: SoFloFreeper

The GOP should dump Boehner now to restore confidence.

I just don’t see a huge republican turnout happening next year if the big prize is to have Boehner back at the helm caving to the dems for the next 2 years.


18 posted on 10/18/2013 10:54:08 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: SoFloFreeper

Yeah, especially after the year of Obamacare failures leading up to the election.


19 posted on 10/18/2013 10:54:14 AM PDT by struggle
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To: Hostage

My question would be will conservatives vote for their current representative after they sold out on the shutdown and obamacare?

Personally I didn’t vote for my pork afflicted Republican liberal in 2012 and I can’t this time any more than I can vote for that traitor McConnell who is my senator.

It all depends on how conservatives vote in 2014. Right now we are pissed, if they pass amnesty Republican losses will be historical in 2014.


20 posted on 10/18/2013 10:55:55 AM PDT by sarge83
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To: SoFloFreeper

and this also means Obama stays for life


21 posted on 10/18/2013 10:56:01 AM PDT by molson209 (Hillary Clinton)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

1000%.....if the midterm elections were Nov 2013 maybe this story had some legs....

despite this we all know the criminal liberal media will do their best to keep this narrative alive...


22 posted on 10/18/2013 10:56:54 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: lurk

“Folks are gonna be voting their wallets next Fall. They will have been enjoying their OCare benefits for 10 months by then, and will have a few things to say about it.”

Sorry, I can’t feel the same about the masses of ignorant sheeple. I think they have “Stockholme syndrome”


23 posted on 10/18/2013 10:59:08 AM PDT by Augustinian monk ("BUSHES WITHOUT BORDERS")
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To: God luvs America

...and the criminal GOP estabs will believe them too!!


24 posted on 10/18/2013 10:59:35 AM PDT by C. Edmund Wright (Tokyo Rove is more than a name, it's a GREAT WEBSITE)
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To: SoFloFreeper

A year from now is a lifetime in politics.


25 posted on 10/18/2013 11:02:14 AM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Correct. ‘Conventional Wisdom’ from political pundits (especially those affiliated with inside the beltway DC) is fickle, shallow and does not stand up to time nor reality. It carries the same value as a bucket of cow sh!t.


26 posted on 10/18/2013 11:02:40 AM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: SoFloFreeper

At this point it’s all bluster, but this sort of thing does provide cover for massive vote fraud. We’re still a year away from a reckoning, but a reckoning there will be.


27 posted on 10/18/2013 11:03:11 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: SoFloFreeper
Did anyone factor this mess into the mix?
28 posted on 10/18/2013 11:05:29 AM PDT by JPG (Yes We Can morphs into Make It Hurt.)
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To: SoFloFreeper
UNTIL THE MEDIA IS CONFRONTED WITH THEIR LIBERAL BIAS, NOTHING WILL CHANGE.
29 posted on 10/18/2013 11:09:11 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America (If Americans were as concerned for their country as Egyptians are, Obama would be ousted!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Tell a lie often enough - it gets accepted as the truth.

This is prepping the American mindset to accept what is being orchestrated and rigged to happen next November ala the Cook County Way of Chicago Thug Machine corruption gone national.

Don’t laugh. That machine went national. We will never again have an honest election cycle. It will now be nothing but a show to create an illusion.

The Party will now decide who is in power.


30 posted on 10/18/2013 11:09:45 AM PDT by INVAR ("Fart for liberty, fart for freedom and fart proudly!" - Benjamin Franklin)
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To: fortheDeclaration

True. What’s really going to matter in 2014 starts next week, when the first hearings on the collapse of Healthcare.gov start up.

The problems being described are at least an 18 month fix. There’ll come a point when Obama realizes that he should have taken Cruzes very reasonable offer. Shortly after that he’ll have to publically admit that he should have, when he asks Congress to enact the delay so the system can be completely rebuilt.


31 posted on 10/18/2013 11:10:21 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: SoFloFreeper

LIAR, LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE.

Anyone who believes this drivel is sitting on their brain.

They think they have killed the Tea Party .. when they have actually been re-vitalized.

If they think 2010 was bad .. I think (personal opinion not based on massive figures) 2014 is going to be a blowout. My only stat is the 81% who believe America is going in the wrong direction.


32 posted on 10/18/2013 11:10:37 AM PDT by CyberAnt (MY AMERICA: "... I'm terrified it's slipping away.")
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To: Mikey_1962
Michael Barone and Charlie Cook both say that there are only ten seats up for grabs.

Now those guys I trust.

God help us all if we lose the House in 2014, though. It will get very UGLY in the US...

33 posted on 10/18/2013 11:12:32 AM PDT by nutmeg (I don't always speak to Obama voters. But when I do, I order fries...)
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To: SoFloFreeper

It’s dumb. The election is more than a year away.

Besides, if the “GOP” loses, I’m not all that sad.

I’m inclined to vote for anything living that doesn’t have democrat or republican beside their name. Wonder if they can label themselves on primary ballots as Republican and Tea Party? :>)


34 posted on 10/18/2013 11:17:31 AM PDT by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

If the GOP allows the illegals to become citizens and keeps sending jobs overseas, then the rats will run the ship.


35 posted on 10/18/2013 11:17:50 AM PDT by soycd
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To: fortheDeclaration
A year from now is a lifetime in politics.

The way things are going, it will seem like several lifetimes until the next debt showdown in January.

36 posted on 10/18/2013 11:19:05 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (The Tea Party was the earthquake, and Chick Fil A the tsunami...100's of aftershocks to come.)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Thanks SoFloFreeper.
according to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets
IOW, even less important and less relevance than an-MSM sponsored poll.


37 posted on 10/18/2013 11:20:33 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's no coincidence that some "conservatives" echo the hard left.)
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To: sarge83

Your question depends on the makeup of the district. What we need are more members with the courage shown by Cruz and Lee.

Any candidate you come across that persuades you they have the necessary courage should get full backing as long as they are not stupid, perverts or losers. What that means is they should have had prior vetting while running for another office and came out clean.

If you must vote for a moderate republican because that is the only thing available, then do what you must. The idea is to lessen the number of republican squish moderates. If all you have are a couple of moderates to choose from, choose the one that will be a follower and not someone that bucks conservatives as part of a game. Moderates can follow the leadership and we intend the leadership to be a strong courageous tea party conservative.

What needs to be done is to persuade your neighbors that the tea party candidate who has been vetted, who has shown strength and courage, who will not sell out, can be beneficial to the country.

You have to be a sales person and really hit hard on the benefits of conservative politics. One subject along this line is there are better ways in the healthcare market to improve access than to resort to government run healthcare which brings the standards down for everyone and drives quality doctors, nurses and medical staff away from the profession.


38 posted on 10/18/2013 11:20:41 AM PDT by Hostage (Be Breitbart!)
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To: SoFloFreeper
There is still considerable debate over whether the GOP actually has the House.
39 posted on 10/18/2013 11:21:23 AM PDT by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Ping for later


40 posted on 10/18/2013 11:21:31 AM PDT by Alex Murphy (Just a common, ordinary, simple savior of America's destiny.)
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41 posted on 10/18/2013 11:22:51 AM PDT by RedMDer (http://www.dontfundobamacare.com/)
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To: Mr. Jeeves

I sure can’t tell the difference...As far as I’m concerned Pelosi never left the Speaker role.


42 posted on 10/18/2013 11:23:01 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: SoFloFreeper
Sounds like they've got new software for the Diebold vote counting machines and they've got to sell a "cover reality" before pulling their stunt in 2014.

People are pissed.

43 posted on 10/18/2013 11:25:07 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (ZeroCare: Make them pay; do not delay.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

B.S. Obamacare will be in total chaos long before the elections.


44 posted on 10/18/2013 11:25:14 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: lurk

Ya, the liberals can be crowing now, but the election is 13 months from now.

And, the turnout among low information liberal types is lower in mid term elections.

And, the Democrats are defending many more Senate seats in ‘14 thant the GOP is.

Lots can happen between now and November 2014 to influence the elections held then.


45 posted on 10/18/2013 11:25:49 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: SoFloFreeper

There is a long way to go until the 2014 elections, and an infinite number of ways for Obama to alienate the electorate.


46 posted on 10/18/2013 11:26:39 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: SoFloFreeper
Next year’s midterm elections for Congress are now a tossup between the Republicans and the Democrats,

Just MORE hyperbole and SPIN.

By the time most folks get their Obamacare insurance bills and see the UNBELIEVABLE DEDUCTABLES attached to their coverage the Democrats will be lucky to get 10% of the vote.

47 posted on 10/18/2013 11:31:32 AM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: SoFloFreeper

As if it would matter?

Pfft..the whole damn bunch are corrupt.


48 posted on 10/18/2013 11:32:30 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal the 16th Amendment)
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To: lurk

Using that logic they would have never re-elected Obama. Given the MSM propaganda machine and an ignorant voter base I see nothing good on the horizon.


49 posted on 10/18/2013 11:32:46 AM PDT by plain talk
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To: SoFloFreeper

Yes, the GOP-e will lose the House, we just have to make sure it is to The Tea Party and the Forgotten Man.


50 posted on 10/18/2013 11:32:59 AM PDT by EBH ( The Day of the Patriot has arrived.)
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