Skip to comments.Bettor's Verdict: GOP could lose the House
Posted on 10/18/2013 10:40:32 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
Next years midterm elections for Congress are now a tossup between the Republicans and the Democrats, according to the betting at the Iowa Electronic Markets the only sportsbook in America allowed to bet on U.S. elections.
Nancy Pelosis chances of leading the Democrats to a House majority have more than doubled in less than a month to about 50% as a result of the government-shutdown fiasco, according to betting on the exchange.
And the Republicans, who appeared to have a lock on the elections just a few weeks ago, have seen their chances collapse at the same time.
Back in September, oddsmakers gave the Republicans a one-in-four chance of gaining seats, improving their overall control of the lower house. Thats now down to one-in-twenty. (The numbers sometimes dont add up to 100% because of trading spreads.)
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Smells like dung.
Smells like what it is.
People like this are prisoners of the moment, and conventional wisdom. As Obama Care’s reality rolls out, and Cruz continues to be vindicated, the numbers will look foolish.
Wishful thinking, fantasy projection.
Glee and laughter will soon to be turn into lamenting and gnashing of teeth.
Bookies are BS
Michael Barone and Charlie Cook both say that there are only ten seats up for grabs.
They’re gonna need more cowbell in order to do so!
Conservative Republicans in the House & Senate should threaten to change parties now and teach the GOPe a lesson. Joe Lieberman made that threat and the dems started tip toeing around as to not upset the guy to leave them as a minority party in the Senate.
Also, if we lose when we primary Boehner & his ilk, continue to run against the RINOs as an independent. Worst case scenario, a real democrat will beat them. Better to have a real democrat holding a seat then a McCain-like candidate who tries to redefine conservatism.
As I recall in 2010, Pelosi was saying up until the day before the election that the Dems would increase their hold on the House.
I guess they will lose it, just like after the last “shutdown”.
A month from now the attention deficit crowd will completely forget there was a shutdown. But we won’t.
Folks are gonna be voting their wallets next Fall. They will have been enjoying their OCare benefits for 10 months by then, and will have a few things to say about it.
Don't be so damnedly commonsensical......
It's obviously time to panic and pass amnesty.
Lonegan, a tea party guy, just came within 10 points of Booker in the senate race in Jersey. Romney, the moderate, lost by 20. This is all bs as far as the House goes. The Republicans even have a chance to take the senate though it doesn’t matter. Too many McCain republicans to do any good.
...u right...sorry.....never use common sense again!!!!
The GOP should dump Boehner now to restore confidence.
I just don’t see a huge republican turnout happening next year if the big prize is to have Boehner back at the helm caving to the dems for the next 2 years.
Yeah, especially after the year of Obamacare failures leading up to the election.
My question would be will conservatives vote for their current representative after they sold out on the shutdown and obamacare?
Personally I didn’t vote for my pork afflicted Republican liberal in 2012 and I can’t this time any more than I can vote for that traitor McConnell who is my senator.
It all depends on how conservatives vote in 2014. Right now we are pissed, if they pass amnesty Republican losses will be historical in 2014.
and this also means Obama stays for life
1000%.....if the midterm elections were Nov 2013 maybe this story had some legs....
despite this we all know the criminal liberal media will do their best to keep this narrative alive...
“Folks are gonna be voting their wallets next Fall. They will have been enjoying their OCare benefits for 10 months by then, and will have a few things to say about it.”
Sorry, I can’t feel the same about the masses of ignorant sheeple. I think they have “Stockholme syndrome”
...and the criminal GOP estabs will believe them too!!
A year from now is a lifetime in politics.
Correct. ‘Conventional Wisdom’ from political pundits (especially those affiliated with inside the beltway DC) is fickle, shallow and does not stand up to time nor reality. It carries the same value as a bucket of cow sh!t.
At this point it’s all bluster, but this sort of thing does provide cover for massive vote fraud. We’re still a year away from a reckoning, but a reckoning there will be.
Tell a lie often enough - it gets accepted as the truth.
This is prepping the American mindset to accept what is being orchestrated and rigged to happen next November ala the Cook County Way of Chicago Thug Machine corruption gone national.
Don’t laugh. That machine went national. We will never again have an honest election cycle. It will now be nothing but a show to create an illusion.
The Party will now decide who is in power.
True. What’s really going to matter in 2014 starts next week, when the first hearings on the collapse of Healthcare.gov start up.
The problems being described are at least an 18 month fix. There’ll come a point when Obama realizes that he should have taken Cruzes very reasonable offer. Shortly after that he’ll have to publically admit that he should have, when he asks Congress to enact the delay so the system can be completely rebuilt.
LIAR, LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE.
Anyone who believes this drivel is sitting on their brain.
They think they have killed the Tea Party .. when they have actually been re-vitalized.
If they think 2010 was bad .. I think (personal opinion not based on massive figures) 2014 is going to be a blowout. My only stat is the 81% who believe America is going in the wrong direction.
Now those guys I trust.
God help us all if we lose the House in 2014, though. It will get very UGLY in the US...
It’s dumb. The election is more than a year away.
Besides, if the “GOP” loses, I’m not all that sad.
I’m inclined to vote for anything living that doesn’t have democrat or republican beside their name. Wonder if they can label themselves on primary ballots as Republican and Tea Party? :>)
If the GOP allows the illegals to become citizens and keeps sending jobs overseas, then the rats will run the ship.
The way things are going, it will seem like several lifetimes until the next debt showdown in January.
according to the betting at the Iowa Electronic MarketsIOW, even less important and less relevance than an-MSM sponsored poll.
Your question depends on the makeup of the district. What we need are more members with the courage shown by Cruz and Lee.
Any candidate you come across that persuades you they have the necessary courage should get full backing as long as they are not stupid, perverts or losers. What that means is they should have had prior vetting while running for another office and came out clean.
If you must vote for a moderate republican because that is the only thing available, then do what you must. The idea is to lessen the number of republican squish moderates. If all you have are a couple of moderates to choose from, choose the one that will be a follower and not someone that bucks conservatives as part of a game. Moderates can follow the leadership and we intend the leadership to be a strong courageous tea party conservative.
What needs to be done is to persuade your neighbors that the tea party candidate who has been vetted, who has shown strength and courage, who will not sell out, can be beneficial to the country.
You have to be a sales person and really hit hard on the benefits of conservative politics. One subject along this line is there are better ways in the healthcare market to improve access than to resort to government run healthcare which brings the standards down for everyone and drives quality doctors, nurses and medical staff away from the profession.
Ping for later
I sure can’t tell the difference...As far as I’m concerned Pelosi never left the Speaker role.
People are pissed.
B.S. Obamacare will be in total chaos long before the elections.
Ya, the liberals can be crowing now, but the election is 13 months from now.
And, the turnout among low information liberal types is lower in mid term elections.
And, the Democrats are defending many more Senate seats in ‘14 thant the GOP is.
Lots can happen between now and November 2014 to influence the elections held then.
There is a long way to go until the 2014 elections, and an infinite number of ways for Obama to alienate the electorate.
Just MORE hyperbole and SPIN.
By the time most folks get their Obamacare insurance bills and see the UNBELIEVABLE DEDUCTABLES attached to their coverage the Democrats will be lucky to get 10% of the vote.
As if it would matter?
Pfft..the whole damn bunch are corrupt.
Using that logic they would have never re-elected Obama. Given the MSM propaganda machine and an ignorant voter base I see nothing good on the horizon.
Yes, the GOP-e will lose the House, we just have to make sure it is to The Tea Party and the Forgotten Man.