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What's Next For Ted Cruz? A Former President Might Hold the Answers (Compares LBJ to Ted Cruz)
PolicyMic ^ | October 18, 2013 | Stephen Calabria

Posted on 10/18/2013 10:32:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

These days there doesn't seem to be a politician in America who is both as loved and hated as Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

With the adoration of Tea Partiers and the antipathy of just about everyone else, the newest conservative it-boy has captured the nation's political imagination. Following his now-infamous 21-hour fauxlibuster, his political puppetry of the House of Representatives that all but assured the government shutdown, and the fact that Cruz's poll numbers with conservative Republicans have skyrocketed while the overall public view of the Tea Party has tanked, the one question on everyone's mind is: What's next for Ted Cruz? The answer may lie in the story of another Senate icon from the Lone Star State, Lyndon Johnson.

At first blush, comparing Lyndon Johnson to Ted Cruz comes off as ridiculous and contrived. Their many differences are manifest to political onlookers, a list that appropriately begins with their respective approaches to the Senate and their colleagues in that chamber. During his 12 years in the Senate — including a six-year stint as Senate majority leader — Lyndon Johnson ruled with an iron fist. A master of negotiation and manipulation, Johnson almost always knew how to get other senators to fall in line behind him.

"The beautiful thing about Lyndon Johnson," says the political scientist Sean Theriault, "was that he knew more about the constituencies of most of the Senators than those senators did. So he would study and figure out what it is exactly that each senator would need in order to sign onto the plans that Lyndon Johnson had in the Senate."

This wheeling-and-dealing approach to enacting policy goals could not be more different than that of Cruz. Cruz appears to take pleasure in agitating his colleagues, a style that has led to a less-than-stellar relationship with his fellow members of Congress.

"[Ted Cruz] is going to utilize the space that the media is giving him to really attack the institution from the outside, but without any collegiality whatsoever to his fellow colleagues in the Senate who he might be hurting," Theriault continues. "In fact I would even go so far as to say that, if there's any collateral damage in his relationships with other senators, all the better, because it only proves even more what an outsider he truly is."

Collegiality is hardly the only area in which the two senators part ways. Another is the constituency to which the senators have chosen to appeal. This hearkens back to the insider game versus the outsider game, the era in which power was sought inside the institutional framework of the Senate versus outside of it.

"Cruz and Johnson couldn't be more dissimilar in how they are with respect to the Senate," says Professor David King, senior lecturer in public policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. "[Johnson] completely embraced the establishment and the rules and traditions of the Senate. But that was the case with almost all senators then.

"Cruz sees his main constituency not within the Senate but... outside the Senate. And that's a constituency that sees the Senate as the enemy — as a re-election of a corrupted and ineffective government. So Senator Cruz, because his main focus is outside of the Senate, treats his fellow senators as if they are corrupted themselves, and part of a corrupted system."

While the two mens' actual constituencies could not be more different, it is this skillful maximization of their bases of support that is perhaps their greatest similarity. Professor Gregory Wawro, the deputy chair of Columbia University's department of political science and an acclaimed congressional historian, shares this assessment.

"They both come from particular wings of their parties. Ted Cruz is coming from the much more conservative, Tea Party wing of the Republicans. Johnson was from the Southern wing of the party. In that sense they both have, sort of, coalitions within a coalition that supports them. For Johnson, his coalition that formed behind him, of Southern Democrats, helped propel him to the highest office in the land. I suspect that Ted Cruz might be thinking along the same lines — that by doing what he’s doing, by interacting with the individuals in the House, that he’s basically trying to bolster this coalition within a coalition. I suspect because of higher aspirations."

Those suspicions of higher aspirations have been readily stoked by Cruz: he has already made several trips to the early presidential primary states, despite having spent less than a year in Washington. This in-your-face approach was shared by Johnson, who points out geared many of his decisions while in the Senate towards a future presidential run, as Professor King points out.

"Johnson was confrontational with his colleagues, almost always strategically, and I think Senator Cruz is confrontational with the American public, presumably also strategically. They both used conflict and tension productively on behalf of things that they care about."

A full-on confrontational approach could, however, prove detrimental to Cruz's presidential ambitions. Many of the political right's most ardently conservative politicians were popular for a while and then flamed out due to their hyper-partisanship. Professor Wawro points to this as possible evidence that Cruz may be approaching the end of his shelf life.

"People who have, especially from the more Tea Party wing of the Republican party, been pushing more extreme stances, being more in the spotlight, I don’t think has served them very well with respect to aspirations to higher office. Michele Bachmann, she’s giving up her seat in the House. It doesn’t seem like she’s going to pursue, or continue to pursue much, her ambitions for higher office. Sarah Palin has been on the sidelines with respect to pursuing higher office. One could conjecture that Cruz may end up in the same position: burn brightly but burn quickly."

There is, however, the alternative view: that Senator Cruz's scorched-earth tactics will only continue to endear him to the hard right, the only constituency to which he must appeal in order to advance to the general election. Recent analyses and polling support this view, as does Professor Theriault.

"Among his ideological faithfuls, he’s becoming an even bigger hero... But I would say that his reputation, on a nationwide scale, is being hurt at the same time. And he would quite simply say that that’s fine, and he would agree with that. He would say that it’s his job to convince his followers that he will eventually win the war against the establishment. He’s hopeful that he is also persuading more people to sign up to his side, but it certainly doesn’t look like that’s what happening."

But even if Cruz were to win the presidential nomination, it's possible his run would be torpedoed by the GOP establishment. Indeed, this has already begun to happen. And should this occur, Senator Cruz may find himself wishing he had opted for more congeniality instead of grandstanding; more listening instead of talking. For, as Lyndon Johnson himself often said, "You aren't learning anything when you're talking."


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016; cruz; cruz2016; lbj; palin; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; shutdown; stephencalabria; teaparty; tedcruz; texas
Stephen is interested in all things regarding the US Senate and international relations. Born in NJ and raised on Army bases in Germany, Stephen graduated from American University in 2009. He is a former intern in the Office of the Senate Majority Leader, and former intern with Talking Points Memo.
1 posted on 10/18/2013 10:32:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Michele Bachmann, she’s giving up her seat in the House. It doesn’t seem like she’s going to pursue, or continue to pursue much, her ambitions for higher office. Sarah Palin has been on the sidelines with respect to pursuing higher office.

I wouldn't be so sure of either of these things. Neither of these ladies is going away.

2 posted on 10/18/2013 10:44:15 PM PDT by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

LBJ called black people the n word all the time and IMO through great society hand outs turned them into government pets; no similarity to Cruz at all.


3 posted on 10/18/2013 10:46:11 PM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I have to post the last two paragraphs, because his sourced links are so amusing!



"Among his ideological faithfuls, he’s becoming an even bigger hero... But I would say that his reputation, on a nationwide scale, is being hurt at the same time. And he would quite simply say that that’s fine, and he would agree with that. He would say that it’s his job to convince his followers that he will eventually win the war against the establishment. He’s hopeful that he is also persuading more people to sign up to his side, but it certainly doesn’t look like that’s what happening."

But even if Cruz were to win the presidential nomination, it's possible his run would be torpedoed by the GOP establishment. Indeed, this has already begun to happen. And should this occur, Senator Cruz may find himself wishing he had opted for more congeniality instead of grandstanding; more listening instead of talking. For, as Lyndon Johnson himself often said, "You aren't learning anything when you're talking."

4 posted on 10/18/2013 10:53:39 PM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I suppose one thing has become clear —hate Cruz or love Cruz— people recognize he’s a leader.


5 posted on 10/18/2013 10:58:15 PM PDT by Irenic (The pencil sharpener and Elmer's glue is put away-- we've lost the red wheel barrow)
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To: Irenic

Yes, Ted Cruz IS a leader. He has my vote.


6 posted on 10/18/2013 11:03:55 PM PDT by itssme
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There is NO REASON for anyone to HATE Ted Cruz.

He has hasn’t harmed ANYONE.

The lamestream, the demonic-rats and White Flag, corrupt republicans like Peter King and John McCain have smeared him, and those entities and people are entirely responsible for the HATE!


7 posted on 10/18/2013 11:04:43 PM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: Irenic

I agree, and we need a leader these days.


8 posted on 10/18/2013 11:05:57 PM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I tried to search for additional info on the writer. Do you think he interned for Harry Reid?

LOL.


9 posted on 10/18/2013 11:06:47 PM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: onyx

Cruz is our only hope of expressing a conservative voice in a decending country. It’s not grandstanding to tell it like it is, while others are hoping for cocktail party invitations in DC. You’re probably right, he’ll probably get sidelined by anyone and everyone for being the stand out who got knocked down, but I’d much rather be able to swallow my food without choking, and sleep peacefully at night as a Cruz supporter and lose, than I would ignore the truth of what’s happening and win the love of the left.


10 posted on 10/18/2013 11:09:54 PM PDT by Greenpees (Coulda Shoulda Woulda)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

‘”was that he knew more about the constituencies of most of the Senators than those senators did. So he would study and figure out what it is exactly that each senator would need in order to sign onto the plans that Lyndon Johnson had in the Senate.”’

Ted Cruz had a strategy from the beginning and although he probably knew in the end, the establishment had just enough weight to defeat him, he was doing three things.

A) Showing the base he stands on principle
B) Flexing his influence and testing it
C) Backing the establishment into a corner

Cruz knew the votes were not there on his side in the senate. Way too many ancient bulls, opportunistic former governors, and spineless mush from liberal states. He could lock down a little over 15. Most of the senators who ran on the Tea Party platform, the conservative elder statesmen who are not represented by the leadership, and one or two political operators willing to tack right in order to fend off primary challengers.
But that coalition is not the majority of the senate GOP.... yet.
It was Cruz’ maneuvers in the House that were a stroke of brilliance. The House breaks down roughly into 3 groups. About 80 hardcore RINO establishmentarians led by Boehner, about 45 solid conservatives, and the rest are floating populists who go where the wind blows. You lock up the third category, you control the majority, and have some power over the leadership as we saw.
Cruz lionized himself and immediately got the conservatives behind him. With the threat of potential primary challenges (Cruz can give thanks to outside PACS and talk radio for that one), most of the populist Republicans rallied with Cruz too. He controlled more of the House than Boehner, and the final vote tally shows it.

Ted Cruz is a shrewd politician, so I guess you could compare him to Johnson in those years. However, Johnson was a socialist, and Ted is a patriot.

Going forward, what are Ted’s plans running up to 2016? Very simple.

‘But even if Cruz were to win the presidential nomination, it’s possible his run would be torpedoed by the GOP establishment’

THERE WON’T BE A GOP ESTABLISHMENT! This was the political purpose of the entire debacle. Cruz plans to sunset Karl Rove’s munchkins in many of the House and Senate seats, and he has done it all as a gentleman, with a smile.
Because of this vote, Thad Cochran is likely to hit the retirement home. Mitch McConnell, our very own Judas, is going to be fighting for his political life against SCF endorsed Matt Bevin. Lamar Alexander and Linda Gayham, two of the most noxious lib RINOS around are facing bitter primary battles. Couple all that with the retirements of Saxby Chambliss and Mike Johanns, and you have opportunity for a mass takeover by Cruz acolytes.
In the House, its a similar story, with Mike Simpson and Ken Kinzinger already looking toast from the heat of Tea Party primary battles.
And this is not even going into conservatives victories against rat incumbents like senator Kay Hagan in North Carolina who will face off against Tea Partier Greg Brannon.

Cruz will be the death of the establishment, the consultant class, the GOP of cronyism and bipartisan chicanery. And once he has the Senate and House GOP behind him, with the last remnants of the McShame caucus bruised and subservient, there’s only one place left for Senator Cruz to go.

The Oval Office.


11 posted on 10/18/2013 11:10:17 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Compares LBJ to Ted Cruz

Of course, LBJ was a perfect bucket of scum while Cruz shows class. Does that matter?

12 posted on 10/18/2013 11:12:58 PM PDT by stevem
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To: A CA Guy
There was a comedian who did LBJ impersonations. One of his jokes was...Just when I learned to say negro pronounced, knee gu row, they changed it to Black.
13 posted on 10/18/2013 11:14:17 PM PDT by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: Viennacon

I like the sound of your reasoning, because it’s about the only chance left for the country.


14 posted on 10/18/2013 11:16:28 PM PDT by The Cajun (Sarah Palin, Mark Levin, Ted Cruz......Nuff said.)
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To: Irenic

And don’t you just love how the writer uses the term, “extreme right wing” as though zero and his ilk are normal? Some of these writers make me sick. LBJ was a rude, disrespectful, bully, who would shove his hand up women’s dresses and grab their crotch. How come this is never mentioned? He was a sick, hateful s.o.b. but, of course,he was a Demoncrat, so all is well within the media regarding is legacy.


15 posted on 10/18/2013 11:17:24 PM PDT by Catsrus (A)
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To: Greenpees

Oh, he’d better not get knocked out and those two paragraphs are not mine!

They’re from that idiot column.


16 posted on 10/18/2013 11:32:41 PM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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17 posted on 10/18/2013 11:33:39 PM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: Catsrus
LBJ would have NEVER become POTUS were it not for JFK's assassination.

Say what you will about Goldwater, he was a much better person, and a true American to boot.

Imagine a world without welfare. Sigh.

18 posted on 10/18/2013 11:38:42 PM PDT by boop ("You don't look so bad, here's another")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If Steven Calabina was so intereested in drawing compairisons he would have drawn the the withdrawal of financial support we pledged to the the South Viet Nam government of military support once we withdrew from South Viet Nam as a “talking pont “ summary. Ah but that was done by the denmocrats whom he’s working for!

That would have created a review of foreign policy to date. And that is what the so called Republican leadership failed to do and makes them totally incompetent.

Worse yet when the GOP Leadership failed to articulate and inform the American people what was wrong with the ACHIA affordable health insurance act in the 2012 election but (and now called Obama -care which removed the Romney connection) were given a second opportunmity to do so now do so but didn’t.

Those Republican House and Senate members who voted for the CR which is nothing but a a billion barrels of pork laden gifts including not requiring the elite bi-partisan ruling class to become part of the mess they created.Leaving American taxpayerst paying for their elite health care. As Americans struggle with complications created by government manipulation.Should be tossed in the garbage


19 posted on 10/19/2013 1:00:56 AM PDT by mosesdapoet (Serious contribution pause.Please continue onto meaningless venting no one reads.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
But even if Cruz were to win the presidential nomination, it's possible his run would be torpedoed by the GOP establishment.

That doesn't make sense.

Either the GOP-e would succeed in keeping him from winning the nomination, or they wouldn't be the GOP-e anymore.

20 posted on 10/19/2013 1:11:57 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: itsahoot

Well there are Presidential tapes of him calling blacks the N word all over and saying they’d vote Democrat for 60 years because he gave them Welfare.

In essence made them the government pets.


21 posted on 10/19/2013 1:32:08 AM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

LBJ was an EVIL, VILE man who made people sit around his TOILET while he was taking a dump!! WHAT A CREEPY ASS and possibly responsible for JFK’s death...well, he or his awful wife....who had the MOST to win by JFK’s death.


22 posted on 10/19/2013 1:40:05 AM PDT by Ann Archy (Abortion......the Human Sacrifice to the god of Convenience.)
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To: Viennacon

Thanks for bringing it into focus!


23 posted on 10/19/2013 1:41:49 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: A CA Guy

LBJ was just like a gangster of the Chicago 20s. Sure, he knew everything about everybody and what drove them, and he would use it.

Democrats never seem to brag about the fact that his “Great Society” ushered in the wanton waste of many trillions of dollars trying to eradicate poverty.


24 posted on 10/19/2013 2:29:12 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The only people that hate Cruz would never vote for him anyway... including all of the progressive republicans in DC that voted for obama twice.


25 posted on 10/19/2013 4:37:03 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Compares LBJ to Ted Cruz

That's funny. I tend to compare President Reagan to Senator Cruz!

26 posted on 10/19/2013 5:05:40 AM PDT by HeartlandOfAmerica (Obama&Admin=An army of deer, led by a lion is more to be feared than an army of lions led by a deer)
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To: Gaffer

There is nothing wrong with the concept of temporary help for months. The long term social nets have caused a lack of marriage, many babies born out of wedlock for the welfare money, free housing in slums, and a burden on our medical facilities.

Basically people on government support are government pets.


27 posted on 10/20/2013 7:45:06 AM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: A CA Guy

This is true. But Obama has made it so easy to tempt the lazy among us to use SNAP, WICs, TANF, Section 8, etc. to provide that “little extra” for the things they wouldn’t but with their own money.

Frankly, I am damned tired of excusing this theft under the guise of “there are people out there that truly, truly need it.” Nowhere in our Constitution does it say we (collectively) owe anyone a living at our expense. If you want to bring compassion into it, reconcile that with your God and your religion and bring that burden upon yourselves.

I see this theft too damn, damn much in my visits to WalMart. Fat bitches buying up all the goody crap and junk food they can get their hands on. Dozens of Yoplait Yogurt packs, multiple peta fruit pies, junk sugar drinks, very good cuts of meats in all varieties, and the like. They like it because it saves their TANF cash for cigarettes, lotto and beer. My country has 6000 of these leeches, nearly 18% of us. They live off the working taxpayers and THEY DO NOT DO A GODDAM THING except leech.


28 posted on 10/20/2013 8:04:18 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Gaffer

I know two sets of Hispanic families that seem typical in CA.
One was out of work, decided that was a great time to have a third kid. Used unemployment and all the goodies for two years then the welfare. Have a home in Mexico that gets a mortgage paid bye welfare even if they are not working. Had all their kids for free in CA and use all the programs to sit on their butts eating bad food in bulk.

The other family are illegals. Had a child and get money in many ways from government. Want another because it is FREEEEEEEEEEEEEE.

We need to pull the carrot and the plug on this stinky business. That is what we get bad people from elsewhere and why those lazy from here won’t budge.


29 posted on 10/20/2013 8:21:54 AM PDT by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God Bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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Or maybe not. Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.

http://rangevoting.org/PresFraud.html

[snip] Lyndon B. Johnson: Johnson won his initial Texas senate seat in 1948 with the aid of massive fraud in the Democratic Party primary, aided by enormous funding from the Brown & Root Tobacco Company (which had picked LBJ as the man they were going to create) to pay off the Parr corruption machine in Southern Texas. Of course, due to 1-party Democrat control of Texas at that time, the primary election was the real election; the Republicans had no chance. “Brown and Root” later morphed into “Halliburton” and “KBR,” both of which laid a trail of worldwide corruption behind them for decades that continues up to 2010 with no sign of stopping.

Stevenson had earlier been the Texas Governor and had won in Parr’s counties by about 97% margins thanks to support from Parr’s machine. But in 1948, Johnson had the funds and Parr felt betrayed by Stevenson’s failure to appoint enough Parr cronies. Stevenson, who was enormously popular and had won elections statewide by over 80%, would seem to have no problem beating the unknown Johnson if voting were honest. And indeed he did in 168 counties versus Johnson’s 72, winning statewide over Johnson by 71,000 votes. But fortunately for Johnson, the six Parr-controlled counties in South Texas “voted” for him 98%, which, while not enough to get Johnson more votes than Stevenson, was enough to get him into a runoff with Stevenson. In the runoff, Johnson used his funds to buy enormous numbers of votes in San Antonio and to pay off other counties to get numerous 5:1 ratio leads. But Stevenson still was ahead statewide by 854 votes the day after election day, and since the Parr-headquarters Duval County had, e.g. voted Johnson by 99% (with 99.6% turnout), it seemed unlikely Parr could generate enough additional “votes” to put Johnson over the top.

No problem. The Parr-controlled counties simply kept “amending” their returns daily to keep generating more Johnson votes, with the final trick, a week later, being precinct number 13 in Jim Wells County, which was election judge Luis Salas’s precinct, which had voted for Johnson 765 to 60. Somebody simply “closed the loop on the 7” to make it 965 to 60, giving Johnson a statewide victory by 87 votes, and earning him the nickname “Landslide Lyndon.” The last 203 names on the voting list in this precinct were written in alphabetical order in the same ink and all were witnessed under the signature of Parr-deputy election judge Luis Salas; albeit this list later mysteriously was “lost.” (Much later, Salas and various Johnson campaign aides publically admitted all these frauds and Parr committed suicide when it appeared the Feds were finally going to be able to get to him on tax evasion charges. One of Johnson’s campaign aides, John Connally, became Texas Governor. The story is described in, e.g. Caro’s and Feinberg’s books. Too-inquisitive election inspectors and observers would be jailed and ordered out of Parr counties at submachine gun point; the homes and businesses of those insufficiently loyal to Parr would be burned. Three prominent critics of Parr were assassinated by unknown assailants.) [/snip]


30 posted on 10/20/2013 8:42:10 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's no coincidence that some "conservatives" echo the hard left.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Stephen Calabria

31 posted on 10/20/2013 8:51:50 PM PDT by kcvl
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